The moderate Washington newsletter, State of Reform, which has a main focus on health care policy, says Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the big winner in Alaska’s General Election. Last week, the newsletter editor D.J. Wilson wrote:
“Ok, Sen. Murkowski was not on the 2020 ballot. However, before the 2020 election, the most important statewide election in Alaska was the Republican primary. It was a once-in-a-half-century Republican that can overcome that, or a once-in-a-generation Democratic wave, or maybe a special confluence of personalities and timing. It took something special.”
Wilson is writing, somewhat obtusely, about how the Republican Primary has long been an important moment in Alaska’s political life.
“That has all changed. Alaska officially becomes the second state in the nation to allow ranked-choice voting on statewide races. The ballot measure, which passed narrowly by about 3,800 votes, creates an open top four primary. In 2022, it’s reasonable you’ll have 2 or 3 Republicans on the general election ballot. With one Democrat on the ballot, moderate Republican candidates who lose will have their votes go, I’m postulating, to the next most moderate candidate. It will remain hard for Democrats to win, but moderate Republicans, like Sen. Murkowski, are likely to become heavy favorites for statewide office in 2022 under these rules.”
In other words, the winner in 2020’s General Election is the senator who faces what may be an open primary in 2022, instead of having to face a Republican primary that she would have little chance of winning. Thus, the Ballot Measure 2 victory may have secured her a place in the 2022 primary, which would likely propel her to victory the following November.
