Red mirage or blue delusion?


Much has been made by the media about the fact that Republican votes will tip the Election Night results to the win column, but only momentarily. It will be a mirage, the media says, because the Democrats are all voting via absentee ballot this year. And those ballots get counted later in most places.

The “red mirage” is how Democrats have framed the expected turnout, and the media is repeating the theme.

But the mirage theory may be just that — a mirage. If enthusiasm could be measured, it’s apparent that the advantage belongs to President Donald Trump.

“There is no Biden in this race,” an Alaska political strategist commented. “There’s Trump. You love him or hate him. Biden is merely a cardboard cutout.”

But those who support Trump may be more enthusiastic than the haters.

In Florida, for example, by the time the early and absentee votes were all counted prior to Nov. 3, Republicans were only 100,000 votes under Democrat votes in the early and absentees. That has put Republicans in a much better position going into Election Day than it did in 2016.

Then, Election Day hit. The first 500,000 vote that came this morning have Republicans dominating Democrats 51-24, a 27 percent vote advantage.

In Miami-Dade County, the Hispanic and Cuban-American vote is turning out heavily for Donald Trump, and in North Florida, it’s clearly Trump country.

Gov. Ron DeSantis says that the turnout has never been this “off” for Democrats in Florida.

Florida is somewhat of a representative state for many and is a must-win for both President Trump and Joe Biden. Florida has voted for the ultimate winner of the presidency since 1996.

In Alaska, Democrats and their candidates Alyse Galvin and Alan Gross made a big push for absentee voting, and have brought in dozens upon dozens of ballot harvesters from around the country to scoop up ballots from people and “hand them in.”

But in the end of early voting, they are just about even with Republicans in absentees, while Republicans have done better than Democrats in the early voting arena. It’s a seesaw.

Now, we drill down into the modeled projections offered by, a company that specializes in data.

As of Nov. 2, modeled-Republican voters were 49.3 percent of the vote, with modeled-Democrats at 32.8 percent. This is without the Election Day voters being accounted for.

Compared to the final vote in 2016 and 2018, Republicans are holding a super-strong advantage going into Election Day.

Right now in Alaska, Trump is enjoying enthusiastic voter support, which may bode well for conservative political allies Sen. Dan Sullivan and Congressman Don Young.

And that brings us back to the “red mirage or blue delusion” question.

If Sullivan is up by 11 percent after today’s initial count, it will be hard to see how angry Alan Gross catches him in the absentees.

The TargetSmart model doesn’t support a Gross win under any circumstance — unless those ballot harvesters have been hanging onto thousands of ballots they squeezed from voters, to deliver them today, as part of their strategy to lull Republican activists into thinking their candidates were safe.

More likely is that, in Alaska at least, there won’t be any Republican bounce or Democrat bounce that comes from the absentee votes and the early votes cast between Thursday and Monday, which will be counted with the absentees. We’re seeing a change in voter behavior, but the early and absentee votes are on a seesaw — one goes down, the other goes up.

When it comes to enthusiasm, it’s even harder to measure because of the social pressure from the Left. One young voter in Southeast Alaska commented, “Don’t tell anyone but I voted all Republican. My friends would hate me if they found out.” The shy Republican voter phenomenon will be studied by political scientists for years, as the vitriol from Democrats had reached epic proportions this election cycle.

Polls in Alaska close at 8 pm.


  1. Now a very long 8 hours waiting for the polls to close. And still no one has told me how anyone could vote for Biden, Gross or Galvin.

  2. There were lines, Suzanne, LINES, at my Distruct 3 polling place! Over 406 had voted before noon. I’ve voted in the same place for decades. Never had to stand in line before. Loved it!
    Today the line wrapped around the corner inside the building.
    They claim it is hard to get GI’s to vote, well there were lots of men and women in uniform today.
    It’s about turnout. And voters are turning out!

  3. I predict a landslide victory for Trump. He may even get the majority of popular votes since more eyes are in the polling places this year. Florida has been counting their boats as they come in. We’ll find those amounts in a couple of hours and that will tell the tale . Everywhere you go down here there’s Trump signs and people’s yards, on big flags in the back of their trucks, I even saw a trump sign on a railway crossing arm that comes down. I’ve never seen anything like this . This is going to be awesome for the country and perhaps the socialist need to find another line of work.

    • Well, it looks like your prediction is off by a factor or two. Biden ALREADY has more of the popular vote than Clinton did over Bluto. And generally speaking, the Dems aren’t into Trumpian pageantry like you Pubs are. Driving around with huge flags flying off your jacked-up Chevy may make you feel tingly but it is meaningless. The only political sign I’ve ever put in my yard was for Jay Hammond, mostly because, at the time, I made them all and I was young.

      The odds tonight are that Bluto is the one that’s gonna need to find another line of work!

  4. What was apparently the lone ballot reader at Tanaina Elementary in Wasilla failed just after 11am. Poll workers started manually pushing the ballots down into the receptacle, bypassing the feed/read head. So nothing was getting counted. Who knows how they’ll ever sort the counted from the uncounted.

  5. If it’s a Red Mirage, then the whole thing was a mirage and we are lost already. This is potentially our last stand.

    That said, I don’t think it is. I think we win, liberty wins, and we and stave off the socialist barbarians at the gate, once more.

    • If California were an independent country, and not restrained by the US Constitution, it would be another Venezuela.

  6. I voted yesterday in the Valley. Only 2 places to do that. Both were packed with -10 below chill factor.
    There were women with infants standing in 2 hour line……You don’t vote against someone in those conditions.
    I voted yesterday, if you are super liberal please vote tomorrow. That is the vote that matters…………..

  7. Fishhook Precinct was so crowded it was like waiting to get on Space Mountain at Disneyland and just about as festive. The building was packed with lines snaking every which way and I am thankful people were wearing f masks as there was negative social distancing ? We also a long line outside into the Government Peak rec area parking lot snd it was a cold wait out there. ! I would say our precinct leans refreshingly right and the turn out is phenomenal!!!

    • Comrad! Did you cash your stimulus check? Of course not! As an American you returned it to the treasury, right?

  8. My wife and I voted today as we normally do. Probably double the number of people we usually see, but we were in/out in 20 minutes. Stood in line for about 3 minutes. I just don’t get how people have lines that take hours…………… I’ve voted every year for decades and never spent more than 10 minutes in line………………

    Regardless of the results, I’m happy it’s finally over. The spam caller/texter block list on my cellphone stretches well into the hundreds………..

  9. Went to Tanaina Elementary yesterday and picked up 2 special needs ballots. Returned 3 hours later and put them in the blue ballot box. No ID required . Nothing to stop me from going from polling station to station doing same thing. More than 2 places to “vote” in valley Chuck. Greek Orthodox church was open for polling

  10. Went to Tanaina school yesterday picked up 2 special needs ballots returned a few hours later and put ballots in the box. No one asked for my ID or who I was helping to vote. Nothing to stop me from going to polling station to station doing the same. There was more than 2 places to vote. Greek Orthodox church be one place. Didn’t find any lines or waiting at Taninia School. Voting is a sham.

  11. Unfortunately, an enthusiastic Trump vote doesn’t count any more than an unenthusiastic vote for dem’s senile, lifeless, and corrupt candidate.

  12. Dearest Alaska,

    Joe Biden is not a socialist and neither are most Democrats. Nor is socialism the only threat to our country. We are being attacked on all fronts.

    Please know that this country cannot be defeated if we work together.

    We need a robust conversation and diverse solutions if we are to overcome the challenges of modernity.

    China was 30 years behind the US because they hadn’t built a highway system that would allow them to move goods across their country. Eisenhower built our interstate roads in the 1950s. This group endeavor helped to make us the wonder of the world. Making America Great and Building Back Better may require a collective response – but not everything we do as a nation equates to socialism. Instead, there is strength in numbers. Multinational corporations are afraid of this and prefer crony capitalism. They want to destroy the word UNITED in our name.

    I am hoping that we can “crown our good in brotherhood” once again.

    Wishing the best for you all and our country,

  13. You all know Biden’s not “senile,” right? Everything you’re using as proof of his supposed “senility” is actually the result of the strategies used by lifelong stutterers to hide their stutter.

    Trump also mocked those with disabilities, so it’s no surprise his followers do, too.

    Biden is also one of the most moderate and centrist politicians out there. You’ve gone so far right you wouldn’t know what socialism is anymore. Everything to your left, no matter how centrist, is considered socialism to you. It’s a meaningless word coming from your mouths.

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