According to Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, the prospect for the success of Ballot Measure 2 — repealing ranked-choice voting — is just about too close to call.
Ballot Measure 2 would undo the decision Alaska voters made in 2020 to change elections to a ranked-choice voting system.
The ASR poll, conducted Oct 8-9, 2024, shows that the repeal of ranked-choice voting is failing by a margin of less than 1%.
That’s remarkably close, since “No on 2” this year has more than $12.2 million to spend on ads, campaign materials, and coalition building. The group just received a $4.4 million infusion this month from a single Outside group, topping off their coffers for the final push.
The money to fight the repeal has come from mostly Outside dark money being deployed through a liberal network to convince Alaskans to keep ranked-choice voting. The ads are everywhere in Alaska, warning of terrible consequences if Alaskans go back to normal voting.
A few of the recent media ad buys by “No on 2” can be seen here, averaging over $1 million each:
The Alaska Survey Research question to Alaska voters earlier this month was straightforward:
“Ballot Measure 2 will get rid of open primary elections and ranked-choice general elections. It would bring back political party primaries and single-choice general elections. Elections will occur exactly as they did before a previous ballot measure changed the election laws in 2022. In the primary election, voters will choose a party’s ballot. They will vote for one candidate and the winning candidate will be the party’s nominee. In the general election, voters will select one candidate. The candidate with the most votes will win. This act would also bring back party petitions, special runoff elections, and other processes in place before 2022. It would put all election laws, except campaign finance laws, back the way they were before 2022. If the election was held today, would you vote yes or no on Ballot Measure 2?”
Among 1,254 likely voters, 49.9% said Yes and 50.1% said No.
When Alaska Survey Research asked the question of 886 super voters — those who consistently vote and who will absolutely vote on Nov. 5 — it was 50.1% Yes, and 49.9% No.
In 2020, when ranked-choice voting was first on the ballot, voters were persuaded by a similar multi-million-dollar advertising campaign that came from Outside Alaska.
Yet, even with all the money spent by the pro-RCV group, the measure barely passed, 50.55% to 49.45%.
This time, the group trying to repeal ranked-choice voting is vastly outspent and outmaneuvered by the Alaskans for Better Elections group, the “No on 2,” and their millions of dollars being used in Alaska’s media, in digital ads, and in flyers.
The “Yes on 2” group has only raised $67,849, mostly from Alaskans. The group has less than 1% of what the Outside dark money has poured into the “No on 2” campaign.
A similar poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research two weeks earlier showed that among likely voters, 51.5% were against repeal, and 48.5% were for the repeal.
Alaska Survey Research does polling primarily for liberal groups and candidates, and the results are often slanted toward the progressive side of a campaign, and the company has been contracted by the “No on 2” group to help gauge voter sentiment.
With a race this close, and with “No” ads purchased across the state, the noise from “No on 2” may only increase during the final stretch toward Nov. 5.
It almost looks like someone is using the poll results to dupe outside Leftist plutocrat donors into making large donations to pad the pockets of political consultants and broadcast media companies. The disparity in campaign contributions is so bizarre it suggests something else is going on here. Is “No on 2” being used for some other purpose?
Why are outside Leftist donors soooo very interested in ensuring that RCV remains in Alaska?
I was one of those polled. That poll, the language of the questions was incredibly leading and filled with false assertions, just like the ads they are constantly running. They asked the same question in several ways including false premises. The poll is garbage.
Because they created the system and are making sure it doesn’t go away in Alaska. They call us their “North Star Policy” They need Alaska to keep RCV so they can sell it to other States. They go around and run ads in other states that tell everyone that Alaskans love RCV. If we repeal it, then that goes away. They are currently pushing RCV in lots of States (Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Utah, D.C.
The group pushing it is associated to Arabella Advisors aka 1630 Fund, which I label as Soros, Wyss, and Friends.
Hansjorg Wyss who is a foreign national billionaire is not a US Citizen yet he has donated $500 million to the 1630 Fund, which is actively donating money to ballot initiatives throughout the country to get RCV.
The AP says “Representatives for Wyss insist they comply with laws governing the giving of foreign nationals and have put in place strict policies limiting the use of donations to “issue advocacy” — not partisan electoral activities. But the fact that the money cannot be publicly traced highlights the difficulty of putting such assertions to the test.” Read: ‘https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/left-leaning-sixteen-thirty-fund-196-million-secret-money-2022-rcna125082
Katherine Gehl in Wisconsin is a Obama Bundler and millionaire that is also pushing RCV on various States, very coordinated and very organized with hundreds of millions are their disposal.
I believe RCV is just a tool to make sure they can elect who they want to have in office, so they can direct how the State manages Fish, Oil, Carbon Capture, Carbon Credits, and the PFD.
Phil Izon
Thank you for more detail Phil. It really is disgusting. Many Alaska voters thankfully see what is behind it but I fear too many low info voters just go with what they hear advertised the most. All the No ads are full of lies. The left have no scruples or shame. We are praying daily that “David” will persevere over the very evil and well funded “Goliath”.
Excellent post, Phil. Another aspect to consider with RCV is its role in pushing down the extremists in both parties without the need to create a new party. This was the original intent of Murkowski after her 2010 primary loss to Miller.
Thanks Phil, you have been a stalwart to stopping this evil. Keep up the good work and I’m behind you 100%. I will reach out with a donation to help with truthful ads soon, although I’m not a millionaire.
JMARK, dig into your stash of pennies: you, too, can make a difference! We all know that it’s the other guy’s fault that he’s winning, eh? Why do you think that he’s in the game–to take a loss for the hell of it? Somebody is going lose: that’s the nature of the game! Wake up, bud: even in “old maid” there’s a loser!
I was one of the very few that contributed to the campaign against RCV when it was adopted several cycles ago. Voters were horrubly misled then when it represented the iniative would eliminate dark money. The current effort, Proposition 2, is a fine effort and it has been amusing to see how the RCV proponents respond.
Maybe a majority of voters will now see that RCV is a bad deal. With RCV some ballots are counted once, other ballots are counted more than once. That this is written into a statute does not change the the fundamental flaw in the process. RCV is a perversion of democracy.
So does thet 12 million come from the dark money groups that BM 2 was supposed to eliminate?
The original initiative that created ranked-choice voting exempted ballot initiatives from those dark-money bans. – sd
Thanks for the dark money follow up story. This is important.
These so called Alaskans in these, no one 2 adds are uninformed or working for profit. These adds are sponsored by dark money from outside democrat organizations. The yes on 2 are sponsored by Alaskans such as myself and we don’t have the deep pockets to counter these adds. We are depending on Alaskans to have common sense.
The only ‘Alaskans’ pushing it are the deluded left sheeple that cannot see the proverbial forest through the trees. My concern are the cheating methods that are in place such as mail in ballots, ballot stuffing and even tweaking the computer counting. The whole system is just another tool of Marxist globalist elitists who want to destroy our republic.
The way I figure it, Elizabeth, is that if everybody cheated we’d come close to having fair elections! So get out and vote for some of your dead relatives: for the illegitimate ones you should fell morally bound to cast several ballots in their names! Get out that family Bible and weigh your franchise! I don’t want to hear after the election about how the bad guys won. Use your brain–be a little foxy about it!
Edit: “[F]or the illegitimate ones you should feel morally bound to cast several ballots in their names!”
If defeating Measure 2 were good for Alaska, there wouldn’t be such a huge amount of money coming in from outside sources. Vote YES on 2!
I’ve said it time and again that ranked choice voting is a breeding ground for corruption. And it’s a movement going on all across the nation. That’s the scary part.
Received a call telling me how important it is to vote no on 2 to save democracy. I tied her up for 5 minutes before she hung up.
RCV is the gift that The Wicked Witch of the North gave to Alaskans that will spread like a cancer throughout the continent (except for Mexico, of course, but that doesn’t matter since assassination is the preferred tool of tyrants there, anyway)………..
When I collected signatures on the petition to repeal rank choice voting, 95 percent of the people I asked to sign, did so in a heartbeat. Where are all the “no on 2” coming from?
Ivan Moore is a minion of the deep state. He is setting the stage for the deep state to cheat in the election and have people believe that the race was so close – so close; but, they are going to try to steal it and keep RCV in this state. No doubt in my mind that the cheaters are going to somehow change the votes OR they have brought enough illegals into our state and having them vote No to make it look like a legit election race. How many illegals are now allowed to vote in Alaska?
Ginny: In answer to your question, no illegals are allowed to vote in Alaska. Non-citizen residents, whether here legally or illegally, are not allowed to vote in Alaska. Non-citizen residents are prohibited from voting in federal and state elections everywhere in the US. Some municipalities do allow non-citizen residents to vote in local elections, e.g. bond issues and school board members.
SA, you are correct that non-citizen residents are not supposed to be voting. But, they are already registered in other states to vote and have been. What a great way for Peltola to win here and to get ballot measure 1 passed and ballot measure 2 voted down. There are rules, but the demonrats don’t follow rules.
Ranked-choice voting is an abomination. Vote YES on 2 to repeal ranked-choice voting in Alaska. 🇺🇸
12 million dollars spent to work to confuse voters should tell you the Left wants deeply for this insidious program to continue. It is a gimmick and is an anti-voting program as it is nonsensical and unnecessary. Let’s get rid of it, Vote YES to get rid of it. Don’t be fooled.
The latest line of BS from the no on 2 ads:
“I like to vote the person, not the party.”
.
Like anyone actually does that? Ask your favorite person who claims to be independent when the last time they voted for someone outside of their favorite party? “I’m independent!” says the person who has not voted for a Republican in decades. “I like to weigh the candidates on their platforms and stance on issues.” says the person who last voted for a Democrat in the Reagan era.
.
Look, people do not work that way. It is simple human nature. If you are to the left side of the political aisle, the candidates you like will be democrats, and the opposite is true as well. And, if you are a “middle of the road” person, ask yourself, really be honest, when is the last election where you did not vote along party lines?
Right. I cannot remember when I did either. Do not feel bad. Odds are no one can.
.
This “open primary” is no where near as big of an affront to freedom as they make it out to be. Do not fall for it.
CBMTTek: I vote for the person and not the party. I am registered as non-partisan. I have voted for Republican and Democrat candidates, and also have voted for independents, unaffiliated, non-partisans. On November 5, I plan to vote for two Republican candidates, one unaffiliated candidate, and three Democrats.
Pointing out the exception does not disprove the rule.
And, since you are voting 50% democrat, I will bet under the old primary system, you asked for the Democrat ballot. And, you were perfectly happy getting it, and you did not think your freedoms were in danger.
Another thing, I just thought of.
The overwhelming majority of independents caucus with… who? You guessed it. The democrats. So, I will also make the assumption that your unaffiliated candidate is just a vote for the democrat platform.
So, before the open primary, you were likely not disenfranchised in any way saying you wanted the Democrat primary ballot. And, I will bet every dollar the Federal Government allows me to keep in my wallet now that your Republican candidates are going to be on the general election ballot.
Where is the loss of freedom?
Exactly, I am undeclared and have never voted for a Democrat. I’m not a Republican because of people like Kelly Merrick, Loise Stutes, Lisa Murkowski, Pierre Delecto, John McCain and Mitch McConnell — the professional surrender monkeys. I would prefer a slate of Vances, Cruzes, Rand Pauls, Mike Lee and Chip Roys. The establishment Rs don’t fight for conservative principles. However, the Democrats are the political source of all bad policy.
Dan Bongino has a saying, “Republicans can’t solve all of our problems, but Democrats are the cause of our problems.” That is close enough to correct for my purposes.
With soo much BM , you must have a roll of Scott paper towels in your outhouse Mr. Tek. $12 million of foreign and non Alaskan mula paying reprobates (media liers) to sell this drought to us is scandalous at best. You’re either one of them or your ouiga board is warped .
Vote YES on 2 , NO on 1 !!!
Did you actually read my comment?
Deplorable, apparently he’s not Putinesque!
Vote yes on 2, we must Repeal RCV. We need the old way back
Call me whatever you want, but I’m still not believing RCV legitimately passed in the first place. During the completely fake pandemic known as “covid”, many things ended up being disrupted. Of those things, our election process was probably the most consequential. As long as any of us could remember, we used to get results on election day, not days or weeks later. Also, the number of very close political races has increased exponentially, to the point that it seems like most races are “nail biters”. Much evidence exists of election workers in various states feeding stacks of ballots through counting machines multiple times (of course these claims have been “debunked” by Snopes and other leftist “fact check” sites ….by asking the corrupt leftist election officials if the claims are true!)
Add to those things the fact that Alaska still uses the ERIC voter roll maintenance system, which is actually a hard left voter registration scheme, and the whole thing starts to smell fishier than Mary Peltola’s campaign.
M.John, I’d call you an awake person! I totally agree that RCV did not pass legitimately. Well, it did not. It was supposed to be one issue on each ballot measure and there were how many issues on that 2020 ballot measure? Three? That, in itself, should have nullified that bill – so it did not pass legitimately.
Every thing about our elections is not right. Start with the Lt. Gov. having thrown her hat in a race that she was supposed to be overseeing. It makes me think of an umpire whose supposed to be making sure the baseball game is being played by the rules, but he is one of the players. Dark Money paid to have RCV pass.
Don’t think it will be close. Ranked Choice has the disadvantage of just being annoying. Too many people hate it just because of that alone. I give it a 10% spread in favor of repeal.
The worst part of these vote yes on 1 and no on 2 and all of Peltola’s pro ads is having to either mute the sound or flip to another channel. It’s wearing out my remote control and my index finger. Annoying!! Really annoying.
It’s very telling that the chief sponsors of some of the Vote No ads are based in Houston, Texas and Denver, Colorado, but I’m afraid many Alaskans won’t bother to read the fine print!
Yes, it all boils down to this: Alaskans need to vote smarter.
And, don’t forget, the most damning support for No on 2 was an editorial board statement from the Alaskan Current. (The who???)
Yeah. The best the No on 2 crowd can get is a “news” outlet that no one has heard of, no one follows, and it’s from a editorial that is ages old.
If “No On 2” wins the battle in this November election cycle, I sure hope that Republicans quit in fighting and use RCV to their advantage. Thank you, Nancy Dahlstrom, for dropping out after the primary.
Yes, well maybe Nancy Dahlstrom can now focus on her primary job, which is to purge the voter rolls of all non-Alaskan and deceased citizens. Is there enough time left for that? I sure hope she carried out that sole responsibility.
The PM radio host must be so proud of his baby.
Typical “NY conservative.” Really a Western Democrat (excluding the lost cause coast, of course).
I wonder how many of you, hoping to rid ourselves of RCV like I do myself, were DUPED by the same liberal Outsiders who told us to VOTE NO ON THE CON-CON just two years ago? Do any of you have any “Buyer’s Remorse” for that one?
The same imbalance of Outside v. Alaskan money was evident in 2022. We were told, by these Outsiders, that if we had a con-con then “Outsiders” would control it! Obviously, they feared any risk of losing Alaska as a socialist state, devised by the think-tank at the U of Chicago.
I led the charge, feeble as it was, and exhausted myself in presentations, debates and radio shows. Just one admission would help to make my day.
I voted yes on the con-con because I could see who was pushing for it to be squashed. Just like RCV today – look who is fighting to keep RCV in our state!
If RCV is supposed to keep ‘dark money’ out of Alaska, why is so much dark money pouring into Alaska to keep RCV?
Hmmmmm.
I find it hilarious that a ‘no on 2’ ad claims that if RCV was in place in 1992, Bush would have beaten Clinton.
Ummmm, Bush DID beat Clinton in Alaska!
The ad also makes claims that several Republicans would have won their races if RCV was in place. But how do they know? They assume who people would have picked as their second choice. They really have no idea.
Also, they don’t tell you Lisa Murkowski would never win in a closed primary. They don’t tell you Peltola couldn’t win without RCV.
I need to respond to the post from Sapper above that says they participated in this poll and says it was biased. This poll only had the one question about RCV, the text of which is included in this article. That wording is the exact ballot language you will see Nov 5th. I guess they must have done someone else’s survey.
I gotta also say that I had a laugh out loud moment reading Ginny’s comment that I’m a “minion of the deep state”. Never been called that before! This is unhinged nonsense, as is the rest of the comment about illegals voting. Come on, keep it on the sane plane, please.
Ivan, it is a sane comment in a loony-tune world that you help to create with your surveys.
So, who in their right mind does not know that RCV blessed us with Murkowski and Peltola.
Both these gals speak with forked tongue right out of the gate.
Both these gals could give a crap about you and Alaska until election time.
Both of these gals have George Soros on their Xmas card list.
Both of these gals have lied to you over and over.
Both of these gals are looking for Federal Pension + all the Benefits.
Both these gals need to be voted out ASAP —
Peltola – out November 5, 2024.
Instead, vote for Begich
Murkowski – out November 2028 — Bounce her out in the primary
I respectfully ask you to —–
VOTE YES ON BALLOT PROPOSITION 2
TAKE 3 Friends to the polls with you to all VOTE YES
Your personal future and the future of Alaska hangs in the balance
Comments are closed.