According to Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, the prospect for the success of Ballot Measure 2 — repealing ranked-choice voting — is just about too close to call.
Ballot Measure 2 would undo the decision Alaska voters made in 2020 to change elections to a ranked-choice voting system.
The ASR poll, conducted Oct 8-9, 2024, shows that the repeal of ranked-choice voting is failing by a margin of less than 1%.
That’s remarkably close, since “No on 2” this year has more than $12.2 million to spend on ads, campaign materials, and coalition building. The group just received a $4.4 million infusion this month from a single Outside group, topping off their coffers for the final push.
The money to fight the repeal has come from mostly Outside dark money being deployed through a liberal network to convince Alaskans to keep ranked-choice voting. The ads are everywhere in Alaska, warning of terrible consequences if Alaskans go back to normal voting.
A few of the recent media ad buys by “No on 2” can be seen here, averaging over $1 million each:
The Alaska Survey Research question to Alaska voters earlier this month was straightforward:
“Ballot Measure 2 will get rid of open primary elections and ranked-choice general elections. It would bring back political party primaries and single-choice general elections. Elections will occur exactly as they did before a previous ballot measure changed the election laws in 2022. In the primary election, voters will choose a party’s ballot. They will vote for one candidate and the winning candidate will be the party’s nominee. In the general election, voters will select one candidate. The candidate with the most votes will win. This act would also bring back party petitions, special runoff elections, and other processes in place before 2022. It would put all election laws, except campaign finance laws, back the way they were before 2022. If the election was held today, would you vote yes or no on Ballot Measure 2?”
Among 1,254 likely voters, 49.9% said Yes and 50.1% said No.
When Alaska Survey Research asked the question of 886 super voters — those who consistently vote and who will absolutely vote on Nov. 5 — it was 50.1% Yes, and 49.9% No.
In 2020, when ranked-choice voting was first on the ballot, voters were persuaded by a similar multi-million-dollar advertising campaign that came from Outside Alaska.
Yet, even with all the money spent by the pro-RCV group, the measure barely passed, 50.55% to 49.45%.
This time, the group trying to repeal ranked-choice voting is vastly outspent and outmaneuvered by the Alaskans for Better Elections group, the “No on 2,” and their millions of dollars being used in Alaska’s media, in digital ads, and in flyers.
The “Yes on 2” group has only raised $67,849, mostly from Alaskans. The group has less than 1% of what the Outside dark money has poured into the “No on 2” campaign.
A similar poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research two weeks earlier showed that among likely voters, 51.5% were against repeal, and 48.5% were for the repeal.
Alaska Survey Research does polling primarily for liberal groups and candidates, and the results are often slanted toward the progressive side of a campaign, and the company has been contracted by the “No on 2” group to help gauge voter sentiment.
With a race this close, and with “No” ads purchased across the state, the noise from “No on 2” may only increase during the final stretch toward Nov. 5.
