According to Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, the prospect for the success of Ballot Measure 2 — repealing ranked-choice voting — is just about too close to call.
Ballot Measure 2 would undo the decision Alaska voters made in 2020 to change elections to a ranked-choice voting system.
The ASR poll, conducted Oct 8-9, 2024, shows that the repeal of ranked-choice voting is failing by a margin of less than 1%.
That’s remarkably close, since “No on 2” this year has more than $12.2 million to spend on ads, campaign materials, and coalition building. The group just received a $4.4 million infusion this month from a single Outside group, topping off their coffers for the final push.
The money to fight the repeal has come from mostly Outside dark money being deployed through a liberal network to convince Alaskans to keep ranked-choice voting. The ads are everywhere in Alaska, warning of terrible consequences if Alaskans go back to normal voting.
A few of the recent media ad buys by “No on 2” can be seen here, averaging over $1 million each:
The Alaska Survey Research question to Alaska voters earlier this month was straightforward:
“Ballot Measure 2 will get rid of open primary elections and ranked-choice general elections. It would bring back political party primaries and single-choice general elections. Elections will occur exactly as they did before a previous ballot measure changed the election laws in 2022. In the primary election, voters will choose a party’s ballot. They will vote for one candidate and the winning candidate will be the party’s nominee. In the general election, voters will select one candidate. The candidate with the most votes will win. This act would also bring back party petitions, special runoff elections, and other processes in place before 2022. It would put all election laws, except campaign finance laws, back the way they were before 2022. If the election was held today, would you vote yes or no on Ballot Measure 2?”
Among 1,254 likely voters, 49.9% said Yes and 50.1% said No.
When Alaska Survey Research asked the question of 886 super voters — those who consistently vote and who will absolutely vote on Nov. 5 — it was 50.1% Yes, and 49.9% No.
In 2020, when ranked-choice voting was first on the ballot, voters were persuaded by a similar multi-million-dollar advertising campaign that came from Outside Alaska.
Yet, even with all the money spent by the pro-RCV group, the measure barely passed, 50.55% to 49.45%.
This time, the group trying to repeal ranked-choice voting is vastly outspent and outmaneuvered by the Alaskans for Better Elections group, the “No on 2,” and their millions of dollars being used in Alaska’s media, in digital ads, and in flyers.
The “Yes on 2” group has only raised $67,849, mostly from Alaskans. The group has less than 1% of what the Outside dark money has poured into the “No on 2” campaign.
A similar poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research two weeks earlier showed that among likely voters, 51.5% were against repeal, and 48.5% were for the repeal.
Alaska Survey Research does polling primarily for liberal groups and candidates, and the results are often slanted toward the progressive side of a campaign, and the company has been contracted by the “No on 2” group to help gauge voter sentiment.
With a race this close, and with “No” ads purchased across the state, the noise from “No on 2” may only increase during the final stretch toward Nov. 5.
It almost looks like someone is using the poll results to dupe outside Leftist plutocrat donors into making large donations to pad the pockets of political consultants and broadcast media companies. The disparity in campaign contributions is so bizarre it suggests something else is going on here. Is “No on 2” being used for some other purpose?
Why are outside Leftist donors soooo very interested in ensuring that RCV remains in Alaska?
I was one of those polled. That poll, the language of the questions was incredibly leading and filled with false assertions, just like the ads they are constantly running. They asked the same question in several ways including false premises. The poll is garbage.
Because they created the system and are making sure it doesn’t go away in Alaska. They call us their “North Star Policy” They need Alaska to keep RCV so they can sell it to other States. They go around and run ads in other states that tell everyone that Alaskans love RCV. If we repeal it, then that goes away. They are currently pushing RCV in lots of States (Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Utah, D.C.
The group pushing it is associated to Arabella Advisors aka 1630 Fund, which I label as Soros, Wyss, and Friends.
Hansjorg Wyss who is a foreign national billionaire is not a US Citizen yet he has donated $500 million to the 1630 Fund, which is actively donating money to ballot initiatives throughout the country to get RCV.
The AP says “Representatives for Wyss insist they comply with laws governing the giving of foreign nationals and have put in place strict policies limiting the use of donations to “issue advocacy” — not partisan electoral activities. But the fact that the money cannot be publicly traced highlights the difficulty of putting such assertions to the test.” Read: ‘https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/left-leaning-sixteen-thirty-fund-196-million-secret-money-2022-rcna125082
Katherine Gehl in Wisconsin is a Obama Bundler and millionaire that is also pushing RCV on various States, very coordinated and very organized with hundreds of millions are their disposal.
I believe RCV is just a tool to make sure they can elect who they want to have in office, so they can direct how the State manages Fish, Oil, Carbon Capture, Carbon Credits, and the PFD.
Phil Izon
Thank you for more detail Phil. It really is disgusting. Many Alaska voters thankfully see what is behind it but I fear too many low info voters just go with what they hear advertised the most. All the No ads are full of lies. The left have no scruples or shame. We are praying daily that “David” will persevere over the very evil and well funded “Goliath”.
Excellent post, Phil. Another aspect to consider with RCV is its role in pushing down the extremists in both parties without the need to create a new party. This was the original intent of Murkowski after her 2010 primary loss to Miller.
JMARK, dig into your stash of pennies: you, too, can make a difference! We all know that it’s the other guy’s fault that he’s winning, eh? Why do you think that he’s in the game–to take a loss for the hell of it? Somebody is going lose: that’s the nature of the game! Wake up, bud: even in “old maid” there’s a loser!
So does thet 12 million come from the dark money groups that BM 2 was supposed to eliminate?
The original initiative that created ranked-choice voting exempted ballot initiatives from those dark-money bans. – sd
These so called Alaskans in these, no one 2 adds are uninformed or working for profit. These adds are sponsored by dark money from outside democrat organizations. The yes on 2 are sponsored by Alaskans such as myself and we don’t have the deep pockets to counter these adds. We are depending on Alaskans to have common sense.
The only ‘Alaskans’ pushing it are the deluded left sheeple that cannot see the proverbial forest through the trees. My concern are the cheating methods that are in place such as mail in ballots, ballot stuffing and even tweaking the computer counting. The whole system is just another tool of Marxist globalist elitists who want to destroy our republic.
If defeating Measure 2 were good for Alaska, there wouldn’t be such a huge amount of money coming in from outside sources. Vote YES on 2!
I’ve said it time and again that ranked choice voting is a breeding ground for corruption. And it’s a movement going on all across the nation. That’s the scary part.
Received a call telling me how important it is to vote no on 2 to save democracy. I tied her up for 5 minutes before she hung up.
RCV is the gift that The Wicked Witch of the North gave to Alaskans that will spread like a cancer throughout the continent (except for Mexico, of course, but that doesn’t matter since assassination is the preferred tool of tyrants there, anyway)………..
When I collected signatures on the petition to repeal rank choice voting, 95 percent of the people I asked to sign, did so in a heartbeat. Where are all the “no on 2” coming from?
Ivan Moore is a minion of the deep state. He is setting the stage for the deep state to cheat in the election and have people believe that the race was so close – so close; but, they are going to try to steal it and keep RCV in this state. No doubt in my mind that the cheaters are going to somehow change the votes OR they have brought enough illegals into our state and having them vote No to make it look like a legit election race. How many illegals are now allowed to vote in Alaska?
Ranked-choice voting is an abomination. Vote YES on 2 to repeal ranked-choice voting in Alaska. 🇺🇸
12 million dollars spent to work to confuse voters should tell you the Left wants deeply for this insidious program to continue. It is a gimmick and is an anti-voting program as it is nonsensical and unnecessary. Let’s get rid of it, Vote YES to get rid of it. Don’t be fooled.
The latest line of BS from the no on 2 ads:
“I like to vote the person, not the party.”
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Like anyone actually does that? Ask your favorite person who claims to be independent when the last time they voted for someone outside of their favorite party? “I’m independent!” says the person who has not voted for a Republican in decades. “I like to weigh the candidates on their platforms and stance on issues.” says the person who last voted for a Democrat in the Reagan era.
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Look, people do not work that way. It is simple human nature. If you are to the left side of the political aisle, the candidates you like will be democrats, and the opposite is true as well. And, if you are a “middle of the road” person, ask yourself, really be honest, when is the last election where you did not vote along party lines?
Right. I cannot remember when I did either. Do not feel bad. Odds are no one can.
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This “open primary” is no where near as big of an affront to freedom as they make it out to be. Do not fall for it.