Poll: Tshibaka in strong position for Alaska, Murkowski has ground to make up


Kelly Tshibaka, who is running against Sen. Lisa Murkowski, has a high approval rating in polling data released by Cygnal, a national polling company.

Tshibaka, who announced her candidacy one week ago, leads Murkowski with 33.6 percent, to Murkowski’s 18.8 percent. If Democrat Al Gross decides to run for the seat, he has about the same chance as Murkowski — 17.6 percent, according to Cygnal. Alaska Independence Party’s John Howe polls at 5.7 percent. That leaves 21.1 percent of voters undecided.

The data was gathered through a live calls, text messages and emails of 500 likely primary voters in Alaska, conducted in late March. It targeted all political parties in recognition of the new jungle primary that Ballot Measure 2 created in Alaska, after voters passed it in November.The margin of error is calculated at 4.37% at a 95% confidence interval.

“Kelly Tshibaka leads from the outset in a hypothetical primary ballot for US Senate, before any message testing,” Cygnal summarized. “Tshibaka’s ballot score peaks among Trump voters (61%), Republicans (61%), and conservatives (59%). Lisa Murkowski is in as weak of a position as an incumbent could possibly find themselves in. A strong Republican candidate is poised to defeat Murkowski. Kelly Tshibaka is that candidate.”

The polling data was first released to Politico, a Washington, D.C.-based political publication.

The survey found that voters disapprove of Murkowski’s nearly 20 years in the Senate. They disapprove of her vote to allow millions of illegal immigrants to stay in the country. Republicans disapprove of Murkowski for her vote to convict Trump in the impeachment trial, and the way she handled the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court (she voted “present” rather than yes or no.) Murkowski also voted against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

Cygnal describes itself as a national public opinion firm that pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and “Political Emotive Analysis.” Cygnal was in 2018 named the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team has experience working in 47 states and countries on more than 1,500 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

Cygnal did not reveal who its client was for the poll, but Tshibaka, who was recently a member of the Gov. Mike Dunleavy cabinet, has hired President Donald Trump’s campaign team, led by former Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, deputy campaign manager Justin Clark, and battleground states director Nick Trainer. Her rapid rise to the national stage has caught the attention of Trump’s former campaign manager, Brad Pascale, who broadcast her announcement on Twitter.


  1. About right, for a Republican Primary poll. Murkowski could not win against a viable conservative candidate in the Primary. However, it is now a ranked voting system, so the General is a free for all.
    Murkowski has a $3.5M war chest. Maybe, she will retire, but she is not through screwing up the U.S., so she will run. Knowing that she would be defeated in the Primary may cause her to run as an Independent.
    All in all, Murkowski has money, stupid followers who hate this country and state, and Tshibaka lacks name recognition.
    Going to be a hard run for Tshibaka.

  2. Anybody got a link to her biography? campaign site?
    I would like to see the overall context of her platform..

    The decision by Murkowski to vote against Trump made little sense when Trump was doing great things for Alaska. But it sure made her a lot of friends in the D party and in some measure contributed to Trump’s defeat.
    From today’s viewpoint, it might be helpful to have such friends under the current circumstances.
    For me, I have given up caring about national politics. It is an alternate-reality insane asylum.

  3. We need to learn more about Tshibaka.
    Right now she has double the support that Lisa has, but only because people are sick of Lisa and her voting record and are ready to leap at any alternative.
    But if she wins will she just turn out to be another opportunistic go-along-to-get-along GOP’er?
    We don’t know..yet. I hope not, but for now really have no opinion about her.
    Looking more to finding more in depth information on who she is what she truly believes in.

  4. I hope this is good news, but may be a call to fatten LM campaigns financial assets.
    Spread the word on Kelly and don’t let up. We desperately need to flip this Senate seat. Take nothing for granted.

    Today, call or text friends and remind them to vote. Ballots are due tomorrow for the Anchorage election. A list of conservative school board candidates is listed at The Anchorage Daily Planet.

  5. Very curious how she’d fare in a ranked-choice poll, since she’ll almost certainly sail through the top-4 primary, as this poll shows.
    I suspect many Gross and Blatchford respondents would list her as a second or third choice. If she can manage not to be the last-place candidate in the first round, she’ll get a good chunk of Gross and Blatchford’s votes, presumably.
    Also, it seems like a bad call to poll Gross and Blatchford’s names — a “generic Democrat” (or “Democrat-nominated candidate”) would probably be more accurate. I would be very surprised if Gross runs again after the thorough shellacking he got in November. Although who knows how RCV changes the calculation.
    And who knows who else will enter — is it safe to rule out another conservative challenger? This will be a fascinating cycle.

  6. Many people who supported murkowski in the past no longer do so. I know many native Americans who fall in that category. Murkowski has duped to them and threw them under the bus. Native alaskans aren’t stupid and she shouldn’t act like they are. She’s done. She’s done nothing for Western Alaska except show up for photo ops. This Jedi mind control thing that she’s been playing with the natives only lasted for one hand.

  7. There is little doubt in my mind Lisa walks back into her current US Senate seat with at least 55% of the votes in the 2022 General. Will I vote for her? Heck no. Do I know people that will? Yes. More than won’t, actually.
    Between Communists that are afraid their person would likely lose, simpleton Republicans that listen to failed Republican Party leadership, and the coveted Union vote, there is really more support for her than will ever show up in polls.
    Remember in 2010, after she was primaried by someone who went on to run a dumpster fire general campaign, she had the full support and backing of the AK Republicans, tacit support of AK Democrats, the state’s public and private sector unions, the media, and the State Division of Elections, and walked away with the win. She isn’t going anywhere until she decides it’s time to pack it up.

  8. Can I write in a name, say, like Donald Duck in ranked choice voting? I prefer doing that to putting Lisa’s in last place. I don’t want her name ANYWHERE on my ballot!

  9. Every so often, one has to evaluate the Herd and “cull” the non-producers. This is an excellent time to do so, with enthusiastic vigor. Realizing, it’s the best and most responsible action that must be taken, allowing true leadership to rise to the top. And, the sooner the better!

  10. I don’t think that campaigning this far out is good for anybody. We just finished a brutal 2020 election and have now jumped into this already? Feels swampy to me.

  11. Where is Lisa getting her money???? I’m willing to bet, Liberal donors!

    She’s a fraud. She has always been a fraud. Bye bye, Lisa

  12. Under this new ranked balloting, if those sick and tired of Murkowski simply refuse to check her box at all and choose the AIP and Democrat names for the 2nd to 4th choice, she loses fir sure.

    Just treat her like she’s treated us; ignore her.

  13. Nice try, Kelly…
    Alaska’s ranked choice vote scheme and Dominion vote tabulators weren’t installed so rebels like you could disrupt the cozy Murkowski/ Native Corporation/ Democrat family.
    Still, we wish you luck. L’audace, l’audace, toujours l’audace!

  14. Polls in Alaska don’t mean anything anymore, because of Prop 2 (RCV) Rank Choice Voting.
    No more primaries…
    It’s Lisa H. M to lose.

  15. Vote this loser, Lisa out
    Dan your Next!
    Both of you threw, Alaska under the bus one to many times.
    It time for Both of you to crawl back under your rock with all the other scum.

    Yes I can’t WAIT until Trump comes to Alaska to rally against Lisa
    Good times to be had by all, attending.

  16. we already see her platform. Get sent to Alaska by the national party. Get your name out there by using your position to champion conservative causes. Quit your job before you have any record of accomplishments. Spend the next 19 months attacking your opponent who actually is still doing their job rather than touting your record of accomplishments and leadership.

  17. Polls are BS when Repubs are losing them, and they are 100% right when they are winning LOL

    Let me help you here, ALL POLLS ARE BS.

    Knock on doors and get out and fundraise.

  18. Tshibaka made a mess out of the Department of Administration. Left several unfinished projects which need significant attention. Tshibaka’s statement of her accomplishments was a fabrication. If you want Murkowski out of office find another candidate. This one has potential to ruin Alaska.

  19. Gratifying though it may be to see Murkowski trailing right now, Tshibaka’s resume looks far too much like that of another connected swamp beast and I can’t see that she’s bringing much to the table other than that she’s not Lisa.

    Paging Mike Shower, Chris Kurka, Ben Carpenter…

  20. Until we get election reform this is all moot. The left will ballot harvest along with the Dominion machines being influenced.

  21. This is fantastic news but the 21% undecided is a large group. If a person is on the fence about voting for Murkowski or not, they are dumb as a rock anyway and a lost cause. If what she has voted for since January doesn’t direct you to vote for a true candidate that believes in America 1st, you do not have the best interests of the United States in your heart to begin with!
    1. Voted to convict an innocent man of a crime he didn’t commit.
    2. Voted against woman’s sports
    3. Voted to send billions of dollars overseas and not to American businesses.
    Murkowski does not represent the people and must go!

  22. I’ll switch, and give Kelly a shot this time around. Nancy’s gonna kill me. But even I can’t take it anymore.

  23. Lisa is guaranteed a landslide reelection. Every Democrat vote will flip to Lisa in the second round, and there are still a good number of genuine RINOs in the state. Dominion, “Open” primaries, and Ranked Choice Cheating will rule the day.

    Who do you think will “defeat” Mike Dunleavy in 2022? Will we have Governor Bryce Edgmon?

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