Political pollsters release data for a reason — usually because it influences public perception, builds momentum for a campaign, or helps persuade donors to give to a candidate whose race is close or political action committee.
Data for Progress, a polling company that conducts surveys to inform leftwing candidates and causes, released a poll that shows how Republican candidate Nick Begich is dead even with Rep. Mary Peltola, if a ranked-choice election were held in which Peltola, Begich, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Chris Bye were the candidates.
On the surface, that information indicates that Begich is the one to beat. But why would a left-leaning polling company release such strategically valuable information? And why would it first release the information to public broadcasting?
The reason, according to people who are in the campaign management business, is to show the liberal political donor class that Peltola’s race is actually important. Currently, it’s been getting no traction from some of the major political action committees.
Across the country, political action committees have written off the Peltola campaign in order to focus on campaigns more likely to win. For example, MoveOn.org has identified 24 seats to focus on for wining back the House in 2024. Rep. Peltola did not make the cut.
The Democrat Congressional Coordinating Committee also hasn’t prioritized Peltola on its list of target seats.
Thus, Data for Progress wants political action committees to notice that Peltola might actually lose in November, and the seat should not be taken for granted. The group surveyed 1,120 likely voters between Feb. 23 and March 2.
The Data for Progress poll also wanted to know what Alaskans thought about certain issues — these are the issues that Peltola and her surrogates would focus on to connect with voters. She is opposed to the Kroger-Albertsons merger and so are two thirds of Alaska likely voters, including 69% of the “independents” and 56% of Republicans. Voters can expect this to be one of her most dominant campaign themes.
The poll also shows strong support for banning trawling in general: Two-thirds of voters (67%) think the federal government should ban trawling in waters off the coast of Alaska.
Polling on the issues informs the candidates where the electorate is at.
But Data for Progress likely did not release everything it knows about the mood in Alaska. Data for Progress senior advisor Jason Katz-Brown moved to Anchorage recently and has been writing about Alaska attitudes on a range of issues, including legislative priorities. But it surely has information it is keeping within a small group of politicos.
As for favorability, 51% of Alaska voters said they have a favorable opinion of Peltola, compared with 41% unfavorable, for a +10 net favorability. This is higher net favorability than the other members of Alaska’s congressional delegation, Senators Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, with +3 and +2 net favorability, respectively, the company said.
Nick Begich’s favorability is 40% favorable, 40% unfavorable, and 20% haven’t heard enough to say. Nancy Dahlstrom, currently Alaska’s lieutenant governor, is even more unknown, coming in at 14% favorable, 21% unfavorable, and 65% haven’t heard enough to say, the pollster said.
The poll shows that Dahlstrom, who joined the race late, still has a long way to go to get name recognition in Alaska. The August 20 primary is less than 160 days away.
I fear the representation from either of these individuals will be lackluster, regardless of how the fake rank choice voting tabulation ends up. Most important, is to VOTE to REPEAL Rank Choice Voting.
Begich would be the most conservative person we could actually get elected in this state. The other two, well they’re nothing to write home about.
Once a QUIT-er always a QUIT-er!
Alaskans should NOT vote for Nancy Dahlstrom. She was elected as lieutenant governor and she should serve out her first term. It is UNacceptable for her to QUIT and run for another position now. IF she were elected as our Congresswoman in this race, how long will it take her to decide to QUIT and run for the US Senate the next time around.
Alaska don’t need no stinkin’ QUIT-era!
Nancy…..WHO?
Never heard of her before. She does sound like a dull looser though.
NB3 all the way to DC. Dahlstrom is a nobody. Peltola is more of a brown widow spider, looking for another husband.
Not Dahlstrom! Never, never, never.
We went through that nonsense with Sarah Palin in 2022 and look where it got us…. Mary Peltola …….a reliable Joe Biden rubber stamper in Congress.
Bump off Dahlstrom.
Nick Begich …….all the way.
👍👍👍
51 % favorable. Again, 51% favorable.
This summarizes Alaska perfectly.
Agree… we are in deep doo doo
If Begich, who always comes in 2nd or 3rd place can only muster this level of support against Peltola who has been an absolute disaster, he should get out now. Republicans have not forgotten how we became an intern under Don Young and then stabbed Young in the back. Young was clear- he said not to trust Begich.
Young stabbed Alaska in the back by staying in the job until he was 88 and then DYING in office of sheer old age! He promised to retire and support Begich and I know this because I was at a fundraiser in Juneau when he said it to my face. He lied and Begich called him on it.
M, you have the facts wrong. Young had decided to retire and therefore encouraged Begich to run; he endorsed Begich as his logical replacement. Then, Young reconsidered and decided to run again. It was not Begich who complicated the situation.
Pretty interesting comment by Don Young, who was padding his personal pocket with lots of American taxpayer cash over the past four decades. NB3 has our family votes.
What are you talking about. You are 100% WRONG. Young stabbed begich in the back not the other way around. Young could have done the right thing but instead chose his ego. Now look what we got. O well the entire mess is about to blow up anyway. A big correction is coming.
This poll doesn’t seem very accurate, imho.
why?
The pollster has been very accurate in the past but it is hard to believe Peltola is still so favorable. We need to do a better job of getting the word out about her record!!
I think the word is out… people are evil and mean and Mary and Lisa are really mean and evil girls… its all about destruction and these folks are aiming for total destruction (enriching themselves aling the way, of course).
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Mary getting rich off climate cult bs and Lisa bringing in the bacon taking advantage of our native communities…. Arent we proud of our lying and cheating MISrepresentatives?
We will be voting for Nick no matter the lies they have at the ready….
I do not believe the polls 😳
I know me too – but I really want to believe the polls showing Trump up in every swing state. I’m with Nick Begich but we just need to VOTE!!!
New switch of guards at the RNC! Might plug you against Peltoa! Sorry! If spelling is incorrect! Go Begich!
what else does nancy dahlstrom’s team need to know they will not win this race. she needs to get out!
I think she is not interested in winning. She is there to split the conservative vote. If that is the case I would not want to be her after we lose.
Never forget – Begich is a 2 time, 3rd place loser.
His voters couldn’t even “rank the Red”.
Why?
RINO’s.
Jeb, Dubya, McCain, Romney, Graham, McConnel, Liz, Haley, Murkowski, Sullivan, fatguy from Jersey – globalists, free traders, open border advocates, military interventionists.
RINO’z will NEVER energize the new and improved MAGA base – America First, strong borders, fair trade, military ALWAYS as the last option – not the first knee jerk reaction.
We get it. Your bitter. Get over it or lose the nation.
Vote like you are the deciding voice, regardless of your disappointment (totally justified), every vote matters.
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Your one small voice needs to join ours and the chorus needs to be LOUD!
YES. Thank You Molly.
You have that backward. Carpetbagger Palin swept back into the state at the very last possible moment to get a little more attention, bringing all of her baggage with her. She derided Begich while palling around with Peltola because neither she nor her advisors knew how Ranked Choice worked, they apparently thought the second round choices counted in the first round, so were trying to get Peltola’s voters to rank her second. The Trumpian “if you don’t lick my boots you’re a RINO” pathology caused her supporters to not Rank the Red, indeed she never mentioned it until far too late. If she had stayed out of the race, Begich would be in the seat now.
You have Palin Derangement Syndrome. Just freaking drop it and concentrate on the race at hand. Dahlstrom needs to drop out. This is ridiculous!
Matthew, yours is an astute assessment of the facts. Nick Begich did not lose to Peltola. Rather the undisciplined Republican mob splintered its support so that no Republican could win. Simply speaking, its the stupidity of Republicans that elected Peltola. It could easily happen again with the narcissist Dahlstrom entering the race. Democrats earn their victories with discipline.
this is great news! we need mary out of congress! #picknick
?? Great news?
MP is THE most popular politician in AK according to Katz-Brown
Nancy had a shot. She needs to clear the way. This position is too important.
As much as some Republicans and moderates really admire Lt Gov Dahlstrom. Until Alaska repeals RCV learn to play the game in favor of one candidate, that means we must be on the same page and no ranking a second or third candidates else they get your vote jeopardizing the two front runners Begich vs Peltola. There is one 1 Republican running for US House and that’s Nicholas Begich iii. If Alaskans really do not want to see Peltola returned to DC Then Nicholas is the candidate.
I met Nick at the President vote he’s the America First conservative. Backed by Vivek.
Dahlstrom who I never heard of is too old and backed by the uniparty.
Jen, your advice is flawed. If we have two conservative candidates we better rank them or Peltola wins in the first round of counting. Ranking gives us hope to win in the 2nd round of counting.
Vote Nick. But if you must vote Dahlstrom, at least give your 2nd vote to Nick.
Jen in RCV we have to rank!
Otherwise the lib wins as conservatives only choose one GOP person out of the 2 available.
The Dems know this, do you?
MP is in Congress because not enough Begich voters would choose Palin 2nd and not enough Palin voters would choose Begich 2nd.
There was too much hate for the “other” (phony) conservative and the liberal took it.
Vote for the conservative in the 1st choice and also in the 2nd choice (and the 3rd & 4th if possible)
That is “how to play the game” w/ RCV
Libs know this, do we?
George, statistically, and logically, the 4th rank choice will never come into play. It is completely redundant and should not exist on the ballot; it just adds more confusion.
Correct , but not that meaningful in the RCV scheme.
Also, most importantly, let’s vote out RCV.
Nicholas and family they need a good publicist and PR media coverage that makes them look personable with Alaska. The Alaska channel while it showcases Alaska and its features it also introduces US Sen Lisa Murkowski and the way they do it she looks so Alaskan, she looks personable to every Alaskan.
> it also introduces US Sen Lisa Murkowski and the way they do it she looks so Alaskan, she looks personable to every Alaskan.
The Princess is incredibly unpersonable to many Alaskans.
I still don’t get it. I thought Nancy wanted to be Lt. Governor. Was her race just a fake to get into office so she could abandon her post?
I was not sure what to do but we can’t afford to get this wrong. I respect Nancy but Begich earned it. He has my families vote.
“not sure what to do” Simple:
Choose Nick B first on your ballot
Then choose Nancy D as your 2nd choice
Hopefully Nick gets it (I will vote for him)
But if not, Nancy will get all the Begich votes, plus her 1st spot votes & she wins instead of Peltola
We might not like Nancy D, (potential RINO) but if we rank her 2nd she will beat Peltola.
And as Ronald Reagan said, “a half of loaf of bread is better then no bread, and we can go back for the other half later.
Don’t let the libs & the militant conservatives keep you from choosing Republicans as 1st AND 2nd rank. Do that & it is 2 more years of Mary & an increase in her power.
Absolutely correct.
George is correct.
Yes George, except you have omitted a very real possibility: Peltola could easily win in the first round with slightly more than 50%. The reailty is, Dahlstrom is increasing the probability of that happening. Fact: most women choose candidates of female gender over party affiliation or political ideology.
Great point
We should message Big Mike & ask him to encourage His “Lieutenant” to stand down.
Every picture of Peltola shows her with that overly earnest goofy grin. Doesn’t she look like the human version of an eager to please hound dog about to break out panting and drooling for her next tasty treat? That’s the mental image I see every time her lobotomized looking image curses my eyes.
Peltola is the right choice for Alaska
Murkowski is the right choice for Alaska
Ranked Choice voting is good for Alaska
Anybody but Trump or Biden is preferable
We need a balanced Alaska with less rhetoric from the far right and left.
you need help
we need balanced conversation not fringe, unsubstantiated and make believe BS
Keith we are way beyond conversation. I’m sick of the blabber mouthing.
“We need a balanced Alaska with less rhetoric from the far right and left.”
I disagree vehemently!
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Moderates and centrists stand for nothing. They have ideals that will flex and change with the breeze, and start off from a position of compromise.
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I want, no… I need a candidate that will state what they stand for, loudly, clearly, and firmly. Left or right, does not matter, but “I am a centrist” is a really good way to say nothing.
far right and left are extremists with no room for compromise – America was founded on centrists who understand the meaningfulness of civil debate
Civil debate went away completely about the same time social media made its attack. The cell phone and social media are the worst thing ever. Dems are not my grandparents Dems, they are rolling in their graves watching this shit show. And the rest of the planet is trying to escape to America to get away from what our left is trying to go to. Socialism. It works great for about 2 years then we get cuba syndrome. Dead broke and starvation. At this point Russia & China will make a run on us and it’s all over the great experiment fails. Let’s pray America wakes up. We are teetering on a knife edge right now.
Not sure where you learned your history, but what in the Declaration of Independence and the Revolutionary War tells you the Founding Fathers were centrists?
Please, share with us.
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And, I will say it again.
Moderates/centrists stand for NOTHING. They start from a position of compromise, and lose to whomever is further to the right or left of them.
I am very much hoping that Dahlstrom drops out, instead of doing a Palin and peeling votes away from Nick, and giving the seat to Peltola….again.
Peeling votes away from Begich?
It was the other way around.
Begich is a 2 time, 3rd place loser.
RINO much?
About time for ole Sarah to throw a grenade in. Haven’t heard from her in awhile. Time to implode another Republican candidate again.
The biggest act of political malpractice (among a long list) by the AK alleged GOP is not doing a full court press to teach people how to use RCV.
The ostrich approach helped get us here.
Mary Peltola wears furs and native garb to get the Alaska Native Vote. She is American Indian not a Native Alaskan. I am an American Native…I am white and born in the United States. Let’s not pretend to be what we are not just to get votes!
“Let’s not pretend to be what we are not just to get votes!”
Do you know of a single politician that does not do EXACTLY that?
Nick looks like a Democrat.
You prefer Mary? Queen Sarah cut and ran after screwing things up last time. She’s not coming back.
So these are your choices.
Thanks for the tip.
I will pass that on to Nick so he can modify the “look” if he is inclined to do so.
As a general rule, add 3 pts. to the democrat in polls.
Not sure why that is true, but it is true way too often. For some reason, the democrat will poll higher. Perhaps it is where the questions are asked, who is asking the questions, who is answering, I do not know.
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But, if a poll is saying Peltola and Begich are both polling at 50%, it is really more like Peltola 47%, Begich 50+%.
If the vandals were defacing the signs owned by Dems, it would have all be caught on camera. Regardless, if this had been caught on camera, nothing would be done. I remember in the 80s when the rich and vibrant Dem candidate was removing her opponents signs in Mt. View and got caught. She didn’t serve a day. And who can forget the troll that was caught defacing Amy Demboski’s sign. Nothing happened. It’s a jungle out there, kids. Good thing that Republicans don’t resort to this kind of behavior, otherwise we’d find ourselves in the slammer.
Nick Begich is our choice. But, he needs to fight harder and come out swinging if he wants the job!
Hard for RINO’s to be more than fence sitters doing the bidding of the globalists.
At best, he’s a UniParty candidate.
At worst he’s another “Kenai Land Deal” Nepotism Murkowski.
Do we really want another Begich in DC politics for Alaska?
Nick, yes. All other Begichs……..NO
The chair of the freedom caucus endorsed Begich. I’ll take his word over yours. Thanks.
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