Peltola’s long shot at Congress just got shorter

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The election for the temporary seat for Congress just got a little more real for Democrat Mary Peltola of Bethel, once considered a long shot in the initial field of 48 candidates to replace the late Congressman Don Young through the end of his current term. As more votes are counted, the late arriving ballots have increased her lead over Sarah Palin and Nick Begich.

Begich lags 3 points behind Palin out of the 175,512 ballots counted. Palin lags 7.5 points behind Peltola.

The special election has had 190,296 votes cast so far, making it one of the highest turnouts in Alaska primary history. Just a few more votes are expected between now and Aug. 31, the cutoff for overseas and absentee ballots.

On Tuesday, the Division of Elections counted 21,199 ballots of the 35,983 uncounted ballots they had in hand. The next count will be on Thursday, the division said; it has about 14,784 ballots in hand to count as of Tuesday. Five precincts are still unaccounted for.

While the division has run the ballots through the tabulator, it has only counted the first votes on the ranked choice. The division does not have the information about where the second choices went. Once all the first votes are counted, the tabulation for the second votes will take place. With Nick Begich coming in third, his votes will be discarded and voters for Nick will have their second choices assigned to the remaining candidates. Currently, there’s no telling where those votes will go — Mary Peltola or Sarah Palin — or whether a majority of the Begich voters just chose to not mark anyone in second or third place.

After the election is certified, the division will release all of the second and third place votes for the three candidates on the special general election ballot. It won’t be until that information is released that the public will understand what all voters did with their ranked choice ballots.

Alaskans have not elected a Democrat for Congress since the first Nick Begich was elected in 1971. He died in a mysterious plane crash in 1972 and Republican Don Young was elected in a special election in 1973, and served until his death on a place on March 18, 2022.

Peltola has raised $379,087.93 since the start of her campaign on April 1, and spent $254,299.32. As of July 27, she had $124,788.61 cash on hand, which was more than what Palin had at the end of the reporting period. But her fortunes have likely changed with her solid showing in the special primary and general election, and her good placement in the regular primary, where she had a 36.1% showing in a field of 10 candidates, placing her far in front of Sarah Palin and Nick Begich.

72 COMMENTS

  1. I have not and will not vote for Sarah Palin. I do not see, if elected, that Sarah Palin does anything positive for Alaska. If elected, Ms Peltola will be in the minority. On this last point, the Left will be in the minority unless Donald Trump makes such a mess of things that the Democrats win. Remeber the Georgia Senate runoffs? Haven’t we had enough of Donald Trump?

    • No, we haven’t had enough of him.
      Jobs, energy independence, economy, border security, mid-east peace and economic accords, Iran at bay and going broke, China, Russia, NorKs playing nicer, red tape reduced by bushels, excellent press secretaries, tax simplification and reduction, etc. etc. etc. Oh, yes, you’re right, some tweets that offended the permanently offended. I say bring him back; if necessary his tweets too. But if you don’t read Truth Social stuff, you’ll never know what offensive things he says.

      • Donald Trump is not our savior, nor did he bring unique conservative thinking to most of the issues you describe. I do know that in January of 2021 I watched a senile leftist buffoon sworn in as President and that opponent of the buffoon was Donald Trump. Running Donald Trump again strikes me as a bad idea. Have a nice day. (As for Truth social, as much as I like Devin Nunes, I will continue to obtain my information from a variety of sources.)

    • Trump isn’t causing AK Republicans to be short sighted and stupid. We’re doing that to ourselves.

      Can’t blame Mary for being smart enough to take advantage of it.

    • Dear Mark, stop sniffing glue. The Georgia Senate runoff was corrupt from the start and had nothing to do with Donald Trump. Georgia has a very corrupt Governor and Secretary of State that made a deal with the devil, in this case Stephanie Abrams. They literally allowed a ballot harvesting system to run out of non-profits to place their people in office. Donald Trump has done everything he can to wake up the people to their election schemes and has taken false accusations and made up scandals over and over for us. Now, they raid his home with no supporting evidence to do so and take private property. You need to do your research and stop following the fake news. Go to “True the Vote” and understand what happened in Georgia and many other States in the 2020 election and understand that if we have corrupt elections we do not have a free country, period! If corrupt officials can install puppets that take orders from global elites and not the people they swore to represent, your life as a free individual under a Bill of Rights and Constitution written to protect that life is null and void. Welcome to the reality we face as a nation due to apathy and self centeredness instead of being good stewards of the greatest document ever written to protect the people from an overburdening government.

      • Respectfully, Mr. Johnson: Please get help. The only state in which election claims gained any traction was Wisconsin. There are some cases percolating up to the US Supreme Court regarding the roles of state legislatures and state courts that are interesting, but the conspiracy stuff does not fly. Results since the Dobbs decision suggest that it is quite possible to turn a Red wave into a disaster. Fixation on Donald Trump will only ensure that result.

      • I’m not an expert on Georgia Constitution, but I did some digging.

        If I’m reading it correctly, Gov. Kemp (or any other gov) has zero constitutional authority to interfere, intervene, intercede, etc in Georgia elections. There was no legal avenue for him to do anything but what he did.

        Can you show me otherwise? I’m happy to see it.

        It turns out the Georgia Sec of State is an elected position. Not one appointed by the governor. Therefore Kemp had zero ability to influence Sec/State to do anything.

        You’re gonna have to do one of two things for this argument to make sense. Either show PROOF (I’m not a progressive, I deal in fact) of your claims of collusion in Georgia, or

        Accept Trump lost Georgia by running a bad campaign.

        Either one will do.

    • Sure, JMARK – if only we had domeone like Jeb Bush or Romney, right?
      RINO’s are the problem – placing more emphasis on style versus substance.
      Name one bad policy of Trump, please.

      • I would support DeSantis in a heartbeat. Or is he a RINO too? My point is that Trump’s negatives are off the scale and we have excellent conservative alternatives.

        • The left wants the right to think less of Trump. Many on the right don’t care what the left thinks, but a few listen to the left and start to think like them. Don’t listen to the left

      • Hey done with whatever: here’s two recent “bad policies” of trump: stealing classified documents that belong to the citizens of America with the probable intent to sell them (including nuclear secrets) to American adversaries and lying about the whole effen mess at every turn, and second lying to the IRS about the financial evaluation of some of his properties. And should we go back 6 years, we could overload this website with the weight of his criminality.

        You’ve been fooled. And you wanted to be fooled.

      • Following the “advice” of Fauci. That one he did screw up

        In fairness, who knew Dr Doom was a raging sociopath at the time?

  2. She’s gonna win. The AK GOP is doing its usual circular firing squad. She’s just sitting back eating popcorn watching.

  3. So, left-wing Peltola will win with less than 40% of Alaskan’s approval because Sarah who arrived late to the party wants to be THE SPOILER. Sarah
    could rehabilitate herself with Alaskans by dropping out of the race and supporting Nick Begich. But she won’t because she thinks very little of Alaskans and Alaska. That’s the way she is. And that’s why I’m not with her anymore.

    • If Sarah wasn’t on the ballot, another conservative would surely be in her place. It’d still be ranked choice with more than two candidates and there were like 48 names on the primary ballot to fill her place.

      At this point, she’s ahead of Begich. It wouldn’t make sense for her to drop out. I do hope the 2nd round keeps Peltola from winning.

    • Todd,
      Sarah and NB3’s combined percentage total equals over 60%. Sarah doesn’t really want a job working for Alaskans. She wants more stage time. We are so glad that you, your parents, and others in your family support Nick Begich. Thank you.

    • But you’re with Begich?
      Is there any chance he’s nit a RINO, at best?
      Please name conservative bona fides of his – just one, please.
      He’s hasn’t been involved in Alaska politics before this run – outside of waiting for Berkowitz in the Anchorage mayoral.
      Oh yeah, he shoots a gun in his political ad?
      Oh yeah, 51 Alaska “conservatives” have endorsed him – the same people that told us to vote for Murkowski 6 years ago.
      Palin DEFEATED Frank Murkowski, we know she will vote MAGA, she exposed corruption in the AO&GC.
      Think, please – we have enough RINO’s.

      • Done with it, done with what exactly, (critical thinking)?
        Conservative ? Sarah? The gal that gave you Bill Walker? The screecher?
        I’ll take the kid Nick over quitter SP.

      • DoneWithIt, Conservative bonafides? 1) Not a career politician, 2) a very successful self-made businessman, 3) served as a campaign manager for Don Young, 4) a firm understanding of economics, monetary and fiscal policy, 5) never once contradicted himself on conservative principals on the campaign trail…. on and on. Now, let’s look at Palin. She betrayed Ted Stevens in favor of Mark Begich (leftist wing of Begich family), she supported and ushered in leftist Bill Walker, she said her 2nd-rank vote will go to Peltola… etc, etc. This is just a start for both; I won’t bother continuing?

        • When I learned that Todd and his parents supported Nick Begich, that told the story for me. Sarah is a sleaze, who knows how to fool all of her faithful followers.

  4. If no candidate gets over 50%, do the top 2 go into a runoff? How does it work? I know they’re supposed to have over the 50% mark to win in ranked choice.

    This is the stupidest voting system. We need to get back to the basics. Regular primaries and no ranked choice.

    • Ultimately the choice comes down to just two candidates, and it’s whoever has 50+1 of those two, not the entire vote for all rounds. Just 50+1 for the last round, if no one gets to 50+1 before then.

        • If there are four candidates, the last place candidates is eliminated and the second vote choice on that ballot is distributed.
          Then you have three candidates. The last place candidate is eliminated and their second votes are distributed.
          Now you have two candidates. You are in the third round of counting. This is a binary choice now. The chance of it being a tie are infinitesimal when you are dealing with hundreds of votes.

        • Joe, when you split the vote between two people, someone has to have over half unless it’s an exact tie. People are not understanding that it is 50% +1 of the votes REMAINING, not the votes originally cast. I have seen this misunderstanding so many times from people. Example, if there are 10,000 votes cast, and 3 candidates, candidate 1 gets 2,999, candidate 2 gets 3,001 and candidate 3 gets 4,000. Candidate 1 gets eliminated and if everyone for candidate 1 did not put down a second choice, candidate 3 would win without getting a single vote more. Because 4,000 votes is more than 50% of the remaining votes (which is now 7,001 votes). Someone not voting for a second place is actually increasing the percentage of votes of the other candidates. That is why you need to rank the red. I voted for Nick, but if I didn’t put Sarah down as second, my non-vote just got Mary closer to winning by increasing her percentage of the votes. In theory, my non-vote alone could literally be the deciding factor for Mary to win.

  5. I’ve rarely seen a forum (except controlled opposition) work so hard to prevent someone from getting elected. Is it personal, or political?

    • No, we haven’t had enough of him.
      Jobs, energy independence, economy, border security, mid-east peace and economic accords, Iran at bay and going broke, China, Russia, NorKs playing nicer, red tape reduced by bushels, excellent press secretaries, tax simplification and reduction, etc. etc. etc. Oh, yes, you’re right, some tweets that offended the permanently offended. I say bring him back; if necessary his tweets too. But if you don’t read Truth Social stuff, you’ll never know what offensive things he says.

    • Howdy Trooper, It’s psychotic. Palin haters are like Trump haters. You can tell them the truth and they will just not hear it. They compulsively point the finger and say Quitter, ACES, Stupid, Left Alaska etc. All of which can be explained with a favorable outcome for Sarah, but the Sarah Hater will just plug their ears and say she’s one of the other words. It’s like arguing with a Democrat, it always ends with them calling you some name and them Stomping Off. They still believe Nick is gonna win. She beat him in the Primary,. She beat him in the General. They still believe he is gonna win. They are heading for major Denial Mode. Hating someone so much FOR SO LITTLE REASON is bad for your Heart, Mind, Body, and Soul. Carry on Skytrooper . God Bless the 173rd.

      • Sarah supported traitorous Bill Walker over her own Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell. She chose others over me after 30 plus years.
        Do the math, SkyTrooper. Sarah puts as many pieces in her corner that she possible can. And she leaves a trail of broken pieces for others to sort out. Those who blindly follow her are ignorant and mind-washed.
        Grow up!

      • I’m curious. Has it occurred to you many of us voted against Sarah because of her very spotty record as governor and her prolonged absence from Alaska politics?

        That neither Trump nor hatred had anything to do with it?

        • Howdy Airborne. I was a 4th Infranty Scout Dog Handler. When the 173rd ran out of Dog Handlers at Dak To I volunteerd to walk Point for them. I walked for a lot of different units. The Third Herd was the BEST. Carry On. SkyTrooper.

      • Sarge. Hey Pard, because I voted for Nick don’t make me a hater, it means I did the calculation. Sarah, God Bless her, is a destroyer. Sure she looks Purdy nuff until she starts screeching. She made a fuss about being our Guv, then got a taste of the big time and up and quit on us when the going got rough. It was always about Sarah and always will be about Sarah.
        Sorry Sarge. We deserve principled intelligent and honest leadership, not
        someone who views politics as a stepping stone for their next pay check.

        • Howdy Older. Hope you saved Yer Nick Begich lll Yard Sign, cuz that’s about all that’s left of his Campaign.

          • Sarge, your welcome to vote Nick III in November, which you probably will find yourself doing. Sarah will have a melt down between now and then. It’s really cruel to even keep the poor woman in the race. Jim Jordan she is not. I want someone who can advance our agenda, not disract and destroy.

  6. Is it likely that Peltola will garner more than 50% of the vote? Not likely at this point. Which means Begich is out, and the Begich voters are likely to have Palin as their 2nd choice.
    Palin wins.
    .
    Unless the dems suddenly start finding those boxes of completed ballots that were left in someone’s car trunk. Like they generally do when one of their candidates are trailing.

  7. The math is easy. Sarah just needs to get 13,200 more votes than Mary of the second place votes of Nick. That means if 36,000 people who voted for Nick didn’t put in a second choice and 13,200 did for Sarah, she wins. Of that 36,000 if Sarah and Mary each get 12,000 votes and 12,000 didn’t put in a second place, Sarah still wins. There is no way in Gods green earth that very many people who voted for the most conservative person in the race also voted for the most liberal for second choice. Sarah won. I am projecting it now. I personally voted to put Nick first and Sarah second. I think at least half of those who voted for Nick did the same thing. This is not as close as it looks. RCV gives you the average of what Alaskans vote…. The mushy middle will now always win on average. At least it will be entertaining to watch Sarah. Unfortunately we are also going to get Lisa back. Thanks Scott Kendall. Daddy’s little princess is going to win the general also because of this stupid system. But at least we don’t get a democrat for Young’s spot… just a dunce should be blond…..

    • Spot on JJ, we also put Sarah 2nd and left the 3rd spot empty, hopefully many of the Nick voters did the same and we will at least have a Republican in Don’s old seat. I got it into it with a Sarah voter yesterday and tried to convince him that putting your candidate 1 and the other (both Republicans)2nd would ensure that we don’t get a Democrat in office but he was just so against ranking Nick 2nd and I think that’s most Sarah voters in general. I asked him what he thought about Sarah supporting Bill Walker and all I got was crickets.

    • Wow… Alaskans always amaze me. Either the voting is a fraud or we have some stupid conservatives. We have over 15,000 “conservatives” who are dumb enough to vote for the most conservative and second place vote for the most liberal. It blows my mind. Well, we are the sum of the choices we make. Alaska is gone the way of Colorado, stupid is winning out. Too much pot smoke I guess. I’m starting to think Lisa does represent the majority of Alaskans… Red state no more. Anchorage streets will soon be indistinguishable between LA’s apart from the snow.

  8. Wow imagine that, the incoming ballots are going for the communist Democrat with I’m assuming no signature verification to ensure they are legal votes and we are not having another ballot harvesting situation here. And of course they run them through the “Tabulator” that of course isn’t programmed to reject certain ballots with Republican Bar Codes. Of course she has the extra money to run because the dark money from out of State is pouring into her campaign. Welcome to your wonderful election integrity Alaska. What from of government do you have? A Republic, if you can keep it! With the numerous ways they can steal an election now, good luck keeping it unless you can actually place people in office willing to reform it so they can’t take it away from you. Dunleavy seems way to comfortable with our election process and unless a majority of Alaskans speak out and demand accountability, we will continue this slide into despotism! Go ahead and lookup Mr. Clay Parikh, a 20 year Cyber Security expert that worked for DOD. He just testified in the Arizona court case by Kari Lake to end the machines in Arizona. The Gateway Pundit interviewed him just yesterday and he described the plethora of ways they can use these machines to alter the vote including going through the connected power cord! Because power cords use a particular frequency, that electrical frequency can be tapped into with the right equipment and the machine can be hacked. In 2018, he revealed many of the voting machines went through a complete rewrite of their software code. The older code was looked at and approved but the new code didn’t go through the same process for authorization. What we have across the country is a Wild West voting system that no one really has a handle on with the exception of States with leadership that has integrity and serves the people like Florida and Texas. I’m hearing Alaska has a commission promoting a State Constitutional Convention. If Dunleavy will not take action against what is happening in his State, that may be the only way to write specific laws codified in the Alaska Constitution to protect the peoples vote, require annual voter registration cleaning and give the voters a way to rid the State of activist judges that will not interpret the law rather than creating their own law. What say you Alaskans?

  9. If Elections thought they couldn’t count and publish the 2nd choice votes, as they do with the 1st choice votes, in a timely manner (though its not the final results), AS A POLICY DECISION, they should be sued and then fired.
    “Withholding information” needs some kind of legal justification and I don’t see it.
    I guess this might all go away next year when the Legislature dumps RCV.

    • Pretty sure he was convinced to drop out so the votes for the Democrats didn’t get split like with what’s happening with the Republicans. As much as I despise Democrats, they are playing this game much better than GOP.

  10. I am seeing the wisdom of dropping out now. RCV favors those who rank all rounds, and parties that stick together. No wonder Democrats like it!

  11. Peltola will win. This system was set up for just this scenario. That’s why Al Gross “unexpectedly” dropped out. She is the new look of the Democrats. The Democrats are also banking heavily on Native Americans. Goldbelt will own all of Juneau soon with the pace they’re buying up all the commercial property (with money from government contracts). Norwegian Cruiselines just gifted them and Huna a million dollar plus waterfront property with deep moorage.

  12. just gotta love that rank choice voting instead of having party primaries. This is what they want. Oh goody gonna get a demoncrat rep. Somebody drop out please.

  13. Peltola unites people, she promotes peace, politeness and civility in her demeanor and attention. We need her.

    • And she’ll go along with pelosi. At best she’ll not vote for some of what pelosi pushes but she won’t push back. And Pelosi and her agenda is anything other than the qualities you mentioned.

  14. Peltola is the best candidate by far. Like Mitch mcconnell said, the quality of of the republican candidates is low. And the ranked choice voting was brought to you by the same group pushing low quality candidates

  15. This is about Alaska Congressional seat not Trump. Why bring Trump into this in the first place. We need to challenge our focus on Alaska Congressional seat Republican. Benjig need to step back for Alaska. Personally I prefer Benjig over Palin. But Pain can win be the pit bull needed in DC

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