By PAULETTE SIMPSON
Years ago, I attended a college commencement where a Jesuit priest offered graduates some good advice: When you’re about to make a big decision, first ask yourself, “How do I know, and what if I’m wrong?”
In short, consider the source of the knowledge that informs your decision and contemplate the consequences of getting it wrong.
Elected officials spend public money and allocate finite resources. For guidance in getting it right, they sometimes defer to well-connected constituents, lobbyists, or “experts” who spend their careers arriving at predetermined conclusions.
Currently, Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau are experiencing declines in student enrollment. These are not new demographic developments. There’s been plenty of time for local leaders to craft rational policies and plans to address this depressing, potentially devastating trend. But they haven’t.
In May 2018 the City and Borough of Juneau’s long-time trusted consultant Gregg Erickson warned that Juneau School District (JSD) enrollment counts have been in decline since 2004. Last year, Erickson projected Juneau’s 2022-23 student count to be 4,225. According to the state’s Department of Education website, it’s now 4,183 – once again proving Erickson’s estimate right on target.
Juneau’s peak school enrollment in 1999 was 5,701. By 2032, the number is forecast to drop to 3,035.
Ignoring facts doesn’t change them. Juneau’s aging population and declining school enrollments have helped create a demographic timebomb that James Bond is not coming to defuse. The current Assembly didn’t create the conditions that caused this scenario. Nonetheless, it falls upon them to manage the fiscal pressures of reduced state funding for fewer students alongside increasing numbers of seniors. If their answer is to simply raise taxes, how many more people will be forced to leave?
Keeping the cost of living affordable in a town with sluggish growth that can’t even hold on to a Walmart is no small challenge. But to tax and spend freely and force vanity projects on an unwilling electorate is cynical, disrespectful, and ultimately counterproductive.
In fairness, one CBJ Assembly member might have a clue. In a February 25, 2022, Juneau Empire letter to the editor, Assemblymember Carole Triem wrote, “Instead of being distracted by the shiniest new projects and the loudest voices, we should spend money where it matters the most.”
This past October, Juneau voters rejected spending money on a new City Hall. Previously, voters twice approved bonds to finance necessary upgrades to Centennial Hall convention center, demonstrating they are willing to spend money to fix problems, but not to create new liabilities.
In 2019, the Juneau electorate also said “no” to a new performing arts center. In response, the CBJ went behind the voters’ backs. They linked the ratified Centennial Hall renovations to the rejected performing arts center and gave it a new name.
To avoid another pesky public vote, the CBJ and “Capital Civic Center” promoters are seeking handouts from Alaska’s congressional delegation ($35 million) and the state ($10 million). Even if these windfalls come to pass, the facility will still need more money, as well as funds for furnishings.
Minimized, if not ignored, are the very real costs of operating and maintaining a $75 million facility, costs that will be borne by Juneau taxpayers for generations to come.
Bob Banghart, multi-talented proponent of the CCC was quoted in the Juneau Empire opining that the civic center “…is something this community needs to mature into.”
Such an implicitly condescending statement suggests that those not yet convinced of the necessity of a $75 million facility obviously must be educated until they “mature” into agreement. But demographic data shows this community is already plenty mature.
The revealing comment sadly reflects the attitude of Juneau’s “let them eat cake” ruling class that dismisses cost of living concerns as not relevant to their priorities.
The Empire article also quotes civic center promoter/former mayor Bruce Botelho. Like a TV preacher hyping his crystal cathedral and promising salvation for anyone who will pony up, Botelho says, “I think it is visionary in the terms of what it will do not only this generation but future generations and the impact it can have in the state.” So, the Capital Civic Center is good for Alaska? Botelho may be right about it impacting future generations because they’ll surely be paying for it.
Propaganda won’t stabilize Juneau’s population or subsidize our public facilities. Identified community priorities (housing, childcare, cost of living, landfill) should always take precedence over the shiny and new.
Perhaps it’s time to subject our elected officials and ourselves to the scrutiny of “How do I know?” and consider the sobering consequences of “What if I’m wrong?”
Paulette Simpson is a Juneau resident.
