Bernadette Wilson is leading the Republican field in a new Data for Progress poll of Alaska voters. The poll puts Mary Peltola, the one-term Democrat former US representative, in a precarious spot, showing she only has her Democrat-nonpartisan base, having shrunk significantly in her popularity in Alaska.

The new poll released this week by the left-leaning firm is being characterized as good news for Peltola, who has not announced her intentions. But a closer look reveals warning signs for the Democrat’s political future, and a clear path for Alaska Republicans to retain the governor’s seat.

The poll shows Peltola with a 52% favorable and 43% unfavorable rating, a +9 net favorability. While that makes her the most popular among Alaska’s recent statewide elected officials, the number also suggests a steep decline in her political standing over the past two years.

During her 2022 campaign and brief time in Congress, her net favorability was in the double digits and above 60%. She no longer appears to have support beyond her core Democrat and nonpartisan base.

Despite this softening support, Democrats are pressuring Peltola to run for governor or challenge US Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026. Her decision could hinge on polling like this — not just from Data for Progress, but also internal work from other Democrat pollsters.

The poll also asked voters about a hypothetical ranked-choice race for governor. Peltola holds an early lead, but the scenario is muddied by the fact that most Republican hopefuls remain unknown to most voters, with up to two-thirds saying they haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, a likely contender, clocks in at 20% favorable and 34% unfavorable, a −14 net rating. If she is the GOP’s standard bearer in a ranked-choice race against Peltola, the poll suggests she would lose in a landslide. The pollsters did not report their results of what would happen if Republican Bernadette Wilson, who is also Alaska Native, was the leading candidate against Peltola.

Surprisingly, the Republican with the most traction is, in fact, political newcomer Bernadette Wilson. Although she has never held or run for office, Wilson leads the Republican field with 11%, a clear signal that voters are searching for a new direction.

Other Republicans tested in the poll include former State Sen. Click Bishop, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum, and Attorney General Treg Taylor, none of whom have broken through with the public. Taylor and DeVries did not even register enough results to be reported by Data for Progress.

The path to Republican victory is clear but narrow: Consolidate behind a single strong candidate before the general election, as was done in the 2024 congressional race. In that election, Republicans avoided splitting the vote, when Dahlstrom dropped out and allowed voters to rally around Nick Begich, who ultimately defeated Peltola and returned the seat to GOP hands.

The same strategy, narrowing the field early to prevent fragmentation, could apply to the 2026 governor’s race. Otherwise, Peltola’s base, while smaller, remains loyal and can prevail under Alaska’s ranked-choice system.

The Republican Party’s State Central Committee meets this weekend and the strategy of pressuring second- and third-place Republicans to drop will no doubt be a topic. Candidate Wilson has already made a pledge that if she is not the top vote-getter among Republican candidates during next August’s primary, she will withdraw.

““These poll results show that Alaska Republicans appreciate that historically, the leaders who have delivered have been the ones that came from outside the bureaucratic system. They are ready for a conservative outsider who supports President Trump and isn’t afraid to speak the truth and make the tough decisions Alaska needs,” said Bernadette Wilson in a statement on Friday. “Our state has so much potential, but we need strong leadership to unlock prosperity for our citizens and give future generations a pathway to success right here in Alaska. I truly believe that America’s strength starts with Alaska – and I couldn’t be more motivated to keep working hard to earn the vote of all Alaskans who want our state to flourish. Together we will show America what Alaska is made of!”

Data for Progress, which correctly predicted the 2024 Trump and Begich margins within 2.5 points, weighted its latest poll based on Alaska’s demographics and partisan lean.

Respondents reported voting for Trump in 2024 by a +13-point margin, mirroring the actual election result, suggesting the poll is reasonably representative.

The numbers don’t paint a rosy picture for Peltola. While she may remain the most recognizable and liked among Alaska’s politicians, her downward trend, combined with rising Republican unity, hints at a far more competitive landscape than Democrats might wish to admit.

If Peltola ran against Sen. Sullivan, Data for Progress puts her in a close second. Here’s what Data for Progress released from their poll, which was timed to promote a Peltola run — for something.