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Which Republican is vying for Alaska Governor’s Office

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With the 2016 election behind us, and the Anchorage municipal election dead ahead, politicos in Alaska are looking around for the conservative who will be at the top of the Republican ticket in less than 24 months.

Who will run for governor as a Republican and how crowded will be the field? Here are the names that knowledgeable observers are dropping at this early stage:

Robert Gillam: The race will begin shortly, with multi-millionaire Robert Gillam expected to throw his hat in the ring the first week of January by putting together a “kitchen cabinet” that will meet on a weekly basis. He’s also said to be working on a publicity campaign to stop Gov. Walker’s proposed state income tax. If he doesn’t get a post as Secretary of Interior, watch for him to commit $3-5 million (rounding error) to fund a race for governor.

  • Strengths: Virtually unlimited financial resources, positioning him well to “buy” the primary election in what is likely to be a crowded field. Potential to be a Trump-like candidate, with his personal wealth and propensity for blunt talk. Could position himself as a true outsider.
  • Weaknesses: No direct political or government experience. Has not run for office before. Potential to be a Trump-like candidate, which would be a problem only if things go badly for The Donald.

Mike Dunleavy: Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R-Mat-Su & Copper River valleys) is said to be working on legislation to stop Gov. Walker from raiding the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend in the future. He is a bold firebrand conservative, both socially and economically.  His tall stature and rugged good looks don’t hurt, either.

  • Strengths: Solid conservative credentials. Would use the Perm Fund Dividend as a populist issue. Administrative experience, strong in education.
  • Weaknesses: Needs statewide name recognition.  Will need broad electoral appeal.

Charlie Huggins: Retiring Sen. Charlie Huggins, of District D, has military background (retired colonel) as well as excellent relationships in the Legislature. Once president of the Senate, he’s leaving office, which could give him the distance he needs from the problem that the 30th Legislature will face in closing the fiscal gap.

  • Strengths: Strong personal charm, gentlemanly demeanor, truly a nice guy. Military street cred. Strong likability factor.
  • Weaknesses: Needs statewide name recognition. Can he raise the money.

Anna MacKinnon: Sen. Anna MacKinnon, co-chair of Senate Finance, has the experience to be governor, and the good relationships across party lines, but whether that’s the direction she wants to go is the big question for her. She could suffer politically during this legislative season because, during tough fiscal times, she’ll be making some unpopular decisions.

  • Strengths: Has been an excellent state senator. Thoughtful. Articulate. Experienced. Hard working.
  • Weaknesses: Statewide name recognition. May be tied to the Alaska Legislature’s history of overspending.

John Binkley: Former legislator (House, Senate) from Fairbanks, John Binkley is a riverboat captain who is in the tourism business and has an easy laugh every time someone asks him if he’ll throw his name in the hat for governor. He’s done that, he says. It’s not likely, but people ask.

  • Strengths: Interior base, which is an important battleground region in statewide elections. Business experience and leadership. Great network and therefore good fundraising capacity. Friendly, likeable demeanor. Legislative experience.
  • Weaknesses: Does not seem to want the office.

Pete Kelly: Sen. Pete Kelly of Fairbanks has considered it but he’s got a huge battle to get through with the fiscal crisis. He can’t throw his name in the ring if in June that crisis is as bad as it was this year in June, meaning he’s got a tough route to the governorship.

  • Strengths: Interior base, which is an important battleground region in statewide elections. Thoughtful and strategic. Likeable. Strong conservative street cred.
  • Weaknesses: He’s got to fix the fiscal crisis. That is going to be a challenge.

Don Young: Rep. Don Young could run for governor, and sometimes jokes that he will. But this week he said he’s running for his House seat in 2018. He’ll be 85. Some say if he ran, everyone should simply get out of the way.

  • Strengths: Statewide name recognition – no one has more. Excellent campaigner. Amazing statewide campaign machinery. It’s his for the taking.
  • Weaknesses: Does not seem to want the office. Congressman Young looks quite happy in his current office, now 43 years in.

Lisa Murkowski: Some have floated Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s name as a possibility. But that would open up her Senate seat in two years, and Alaska has a powerhouse Washington team that few want to see split up. She has fought too hard to get where she is.

Tuckerman Babcock: Chairman of the Alaska Republican Party, Babcock wrangles all the disparate elements of a party that has a lot of contentious factions. If he can keep that group straight, he could have a shot. But can he avoid the “friendly fire”from the right?

  • Strengths: Formidable political skills. Great statewide network. Ties all up and down the Railbelt region.
  • Weaknesses: Needs statewide name recognition. May draw fire from Joe Miller faction.

Dan Sullivan (Mayor): Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan is always mentioned and has indicated his interest. The unions might have something to say about it, but the mayor surely knows how to cut a budget.

  • Strengths: Statewide name recognition. Outstanding family pedigree. Strong street cred managing budgets and controlling costs. Sizable political machine in Anchorage. Fundraising abilities. Experience running in a statewide race.
  • Weaknesses: Intense union opposition. Anchorage roots, which is not always helpful statewide.

Loren Leman: Former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman — conservative, thoughtful, and experienced — has been thinking about it for years. Is this his time? His and Carolyn’s youngest daughter tragically died in a climbing accident one year ago this week. The healing process is never a straight line. Only Leman can know when he’s ready.

  • Strengths: Experienced both as a senator and lieutenant governor. Managed budgets through lean times in Alaska. Strong support in faith-based community, hardworking, fiscal hawk. Alaska Native.
  • Weaknesses: A long time has passed since he was in office and Alaska is a transient state. Name recognition and political brand will need to be re-established with a new era of voters. Can he raise the money?

Bill Walker: Current “Nonpartisan” Gov. Bill Walker is said to have brought in a political consultant to see if he could run on the Republican side, and the consultant came back with the verdict: No.

  • Strengths, weaknesses: Look for Walker to run again as an (ahem) “nonpartisan” as he obviously relishes being governor.

MISSING: SOMEONE FROM THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY

Both John Binkley and Dan Sullivan have strong business credentials, but they are considered part of the political class, not outsiders. Robert Gillam is a political outsider, but he’s closely aligned himself with Donald Trump, and that’s a relationship that could help or hurt, depending on how The Donald does as president.

Where is the business community and who might emerge as a person with the courage to lead during the toughest fiscal situation since the late 1980s?  Who has the business credibility, grasp of the issues, potential for broad electoral appeal, and the political savvy to put together a strong campaign?

Some mention the name Brad Keithley, but he’s not likely to pass the opposition research test.  As a career attorney, his profession can hurt him.

Others say Joe Beedle (Northrim Bank president), but Joe has landed the job of a lifetime. He has not shown political ambitions, preferring to move the needle in lower key ways.

John Sturgeon has almost folk hero status in Alaska after battling the Park Service all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. He’d have to re-register as a Republican, but he does have broad appeal because of his David-and-Goliath taking on of the federal government.

The hunt is on, and the suggestion box is open. Send your thoughts to [email protected].

How Mitch McConnell saved the Supreme Court

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WASHINGTON, DC – Conservative Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan had some kind words to say about GOP “establishment guy” and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

Sullivan, sitting in his office with a loosened tie after a morning of committee hearings,  pointed out that one of the least understood stories outside of the Beltway is about how McConnell was able to block a President Obama nomination to the US Supreme Court for the rest of his presidency.

When conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died on Feb.13, 2016, it was not only shocking (there was no autopsy after he died at a remote lodge), few believed that Republicans could stand together for nearly a full year and block a nomination for his replacement. It was an election year, after all. Standing together is not always what Republicans do.

They did. And McConnell deserves the credit.

It was a gamble, to be sure, because neither the majority leader nor anyone else could be certain that Hillary Clinton would not be the one choosing the next Supreme Court justice. If she was, it would have likely been a lot worse than the name advanced by President Obama.

A month after Scalia’s death, Obama nominated Merrick Garland, who was the Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

But McConnell early on said he would not meet with Garland, and that set the tone and pace for the rest of the Senate Majority. Many followed suit. The Huffington Post types went nuts, saying the Senate was defying the U.S. Constitution.

But there’s the rub: The Constitution does not give a timeframe for when a nominee must be voted on, Sullivan explained.

Obama, in nominating Garland, reminded senators of his constitutional duty to nominate a new justice and scolded them about their corresponding constitutional duty to “do their job” and hold a vote on that nominee.

“I’m amused when I hear people who claim to be strict interpreters of the Constitution suddenly reading into it a whole series of provisions that are not there,” Obama said. “The Constitution is pretty clear about what is supposed to happen now.”

But the Constitution is perfectly silent on the ASAP part of the process. McConnell, well aware that the stakes were high, knew his Constitution.

Sullivan pointed out that  Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution says the President “shall nominate, and by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, shall appoint ambassadors, other public ministers and consuls, judges of the Supreme Court, and all other officers of the United States, whose appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by law.”

Nowhere does the Constitution start the clock on such advice and consent, Sullivan said. And, of course, that process only refers to an up and down vote on the nominee. It’s not a rubber-stamp, nor was it intended to be.

In fact, Article I, Section 5 states: “Each House may determine the rules of its proceedings.” Senators, when asked, said they were considering Garland, reading all of his opinions, doing research on him, and they’d continue researching him for a good long time. Maybe until Jan. 20, 2017.

It’s not that uncommon. As legal observers might recall, Democrats blocked the nomination of Miguel Estrada to the DC Circuit Court for over two years because they didn’t like Estrada’s legal philosophy and because he was a President George W. Bush nominee. This is the same thing that the Republican-controlled Senate has returned in favor to President Obama.

Estrada finally had to withdraw his name and move on with his life.

And, as Sen. Sullivan pointed out, it was Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer in 2007 famously said the Senate “should not confirm a [GW Bush] Supreme Court nominee except in extraordinary circumstances.”

WHO MIGHT BE ON THE LIST

Meanwhile, Donald Trump back in September issued a list of potential nominees, including these:

Keith Blackwell is a justice of the Supreme Court of Georgia, appointed in 2012. He previously served on the Court of Appeals of Georgia. and was a Deputy Special Attorney General of the State of Georgia, an Assistant District Attorney in Cobb County, and a commercial litigator in private practice. Blackwell is a graduate of the University of Georgia School of Law.

Charles Canady is a justice of the Supreme Court of Florida since 2008. He was the court’s chief justice from 2010 to 2012. Justice Canady served on the Florida Second District Court of Appeal and as a member of the United States House of Representatives for four terms. Canady is a graduate of Yale Law School.

Neil Gorsuch is a judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, appointed to the position in 2006. Judge Gorsuch previously served in the Justice Department as a Deputy Assistant Attorney General. Judge Gorsuch was a Marshall Scholar and received his law degree from Harvard. He clerked for Justices Byron White and Anthony Kennedy.

Mike Lee is the junior U.S. Senator from Utah who serves on the Senate Judiciary Committee. He has previously served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in Utah and as a Supreme Court Clerk for Justice Alito.

Edward Mansfield is a justice of the Iowa Supreme Court, appointed in 2011 and retained by voters in 2012. Justice Mansfield served as a judge of the Iowa Court of Appeals. He teaches law at Drake University. Mansfield is a graduate of Yale Law School.

Federico Moreno is a judge of the US District Court for the Southern District of Florida and a member of the Judicial Conference of the United States. He served as a state and county court judge in Florida. Moreno is a graduate of the University of Miami School of Law.

Margaret A. Ryan is a judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces since 2006. Judge Ryan served in the Marine Corps through deployments in the Philippines and the Gulf War. She attended Notre Dame Law School and served as a JAG officer for four years. Ryan clerked for Judge J. Michael Luttig of the Fourth Circuit and Justice Clarence Thomas.

Amul Thapar is a judge of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, since his 2007 appointment when he became the first South Asian Article III judge. He has taught law students at the University of Cincinnati and Georgetown and served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in Washington, D.C. and the Southern District of Ohio. Immediately prior to his judicial appointment, Judge Thapar was the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Kentucky. Judge Thapar received his law degree from the University of California, Berkeley.

Timothy Tymkovich is the chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, appointed in 2003. He served as Colorado Solicitor General and graduated from the University of Colorado College of Law.

Robert Young is the chief justice of the Supreme Court of Michigan, appointed in 1999, and became part of a majority of justices who embraced originalism and led what one scholar described as a “textualism revolution.” Justice Young was a judge on the Michigan Court of Appeals and is a graduate of Harvard Law School.

The list so far includes:

1. Keith Blackwell

2. Charles Canady

3. Steven Colloton

4. Allison Eid

5. Neil Gorsuch

6. Raymond Gruender

7. Thomas Hardiman

8. Raymond Kethledge

9. Joan Larsen

10. Mike Lee

11. Thomas Lee

12. Edward Mansfield

13. Federico Moreno

14. William Pryor

15. Margaret A. Ryan

16. Amul Thapar

17. Timothy Tymkovich

18. David Stras

19. Diane Sykes

20. Don Willett

21. Robert Young

Meanwhile, Merrick Garland’s nomination is, according to several on The Hill, dead on arrival under President-elect Trump.

Federal permitting — a chance to reform

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – Rep. Don Young is holding forth, as he does. He’s telling the story of an Alaska harbor master who wants to install a buoy in the harbor for safety. But the harbor master has to get separate permits from the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the EPA.

And then he has to get State permits from the Departments of Natural Resources and Fish and Game. He’s working on five permits for one small buoy.

“And it’s a buoy! It’s for safety!” Rep. Young exclaims, throwing up his hands at a bureaucracy that has become Kafkaesque.

Young has been beating on the permitting-abuse drum for decades. It’s a constant theme of his because Alaskans call his office nearly daily with the most outrageous tales of federal bureaucracies run amuck.

“It shouldn’t take calling your congressman to get relief from the federal bureaucracy, but that is often the route citizens end up having to take,” said Matt Shuckerow, press secretary to Young. “A call to an agency from a member of Congress — that’s something they don’t like to get.” But it’s also the type of call Young and his staff have to make on behalf of Alaskans on a regular basis to get things moving for people who are trying to accomplish the simplest of tasks.

THE PERMITTING ACT THAT SWALLOWED THE ECONOMY

The extravagant expansion of the federal permitting process has created an entire industry that for decades has gummed up the works of critical infrastructure projects and ground progress to a halt.

“The National Environmental Policy Act is the mother of all environmental laws,” said John MacKinnon, executive director of Associated General Contractors of Alaska. Take the Juneau Access Project, which started the NEPA process back in the early 1990s.

“You have to select a ‘preferred alternative’ and if that alternative involves wetlands you need an Army Corps of Engineers permit. But the Corps says they have to look at ALL alternatives so they can choose the one that has the least damaging and still practical alternative. That means you have to start the process all over again,” MacKinnon said, bringing out a graphic he shows during presentations to illustrate the epidemic growth of permitting requirements:

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It’s only gotten worse under the Obama Administration, with the environmental lobby having taken over the Department of Interior, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Forest and Park Services.

Everything from buoys to bridges are now held up by the overzealous permitting regulations. NEPA, once a simple law that required environmental impact statements, has grown into thousands of pages of regulatory burden as a result of its ambiguously broad mandate.

NEPA’s requirement that projects complete environmental impact statements before taking major action has given nearly unlimited power to both the federal bureaucracy and environmental organizations, as illustrated by Juneau Access Project, now closing in on a quarter of a century of delays.

SULLIVAN TAKING UP THE CHALLENGE

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U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan

Rep. Young has a counterpart in the Senate who shares his concerns and is uniquely positioned in a committee to do something about it.

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, who has advocated for the Juneau Access Project, is developing a bill that will unwind some of the major problems NEPA has created.

[READ: How to put building permits on fast track]

Sullivan has also been talking with President-elect Donald Trump about the need for federal permitting reform in order to jumpstart jobs and rebuild the nation’s aging infrastructure.

The draft of the bill will only be able to reflect what is the purview of the Subcommittee on Fisheries, Water, and Wildlife that he chairs in the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. His staff is delving deep into topics like wetlands mitigation, which has become costly and impractical in Alaska, with its more than 170 million acres of wetlands.

“When we wanted to build a middle school in Juneau, there were pockets in the forest that were the size of potholes, but they decided to call it a forested wetlands,” explained MacKinnon, who used to serve on the Juneau Assembly. “We need to dial down the mitigation on wetlands. It’s gone from costing $10,000 per acre on the North Slope to almost $50,000. It’s extortion.”

 

One way to lessen the burden of NEPA would be to put in place a set of categorical exclusions, but to do so without also creating another new layer of study requirements that would be open to abuse by the environmental lawsuit industry.

“Forty years ago, the biggest problem we had was trying to find the money to build something. Today our biggest obstacle is getting permission,” MacKinnon said.

With both Rep. Young and Sen. Sullivan committed to permitting reforms, and with a new pro-business president taking the oath of office, the rewrite of federal permitting laws and regulations is tantalizingly close.

 

 

 

Gillam could be moving up the list for Interior

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – Alaska mega-investor Bob Gillam, who owns McKinley Capital Management, is in New York City today, and can probably be spotted at the Trump Tower elevator.

But over the past couple of days he has been in the nation’s capital visiting the Alaska congressional delegation and presumably others who would be key to an appointment in the Trump Administration.  He’s been laying down some groundwork he’ll need in his bid to become Secretary of Interior.

screen-shot-2016-11-29-at-1-50-44-pm“The question is, is he too much of an outsider to have a chance?” said Art Hackney, an Alaska political consultant. “Having an Alaskan in the job is attractive for us because of his strong interest is in fixing the Alaska economy.”

And Gillam surely doesn’t need the job to feather his own portfolio. His net worth is in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Vice President-elect Mike Pence is going to be key to the Interior appointment, and he’s known to be a good friend of Rep. Don Young, whom Gillam met privately with yesterday.

Gillam is also a close friend of William S. Morris III, who owns Morris Communications and is the Alaska newspaper publisher with the longest tenured ownership in the state (since 1969).

Gillam graduated from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1968, the same year as Donald Trump, and has spoken with Trump several times over the past year, according to people close to him.

Although Alaskans know him as an opponent of the Pebble Project mine, Gillam’s company is the majority owner of some of the largest placer mines in the world, and has stakes in as many as 30 mining companies.

He started McKinley Capital in 1990 with three employees and a penchant for quantitative, computer-analysis investment, using a model he calls Modern Portfolio Theory, which focuses on the next big growth stocks that are likely to explode, according to a mathematical model. He is unlike the typical Wharton graduate, in that he left the concrete jungle to return home to the state he loves, Alaska.

During the 2016 election cycle, Gillam gave $5,000 to Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan‘s PAC, True North PAC.

If Gillam doesn’t land the Interior post, count on him launching a bid for governor at the  outset of 2017. He has all but announced his intent to run.

Former Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell landed in DC today – presumably to follow in Gillam’s footsteps for the position as Secretary of the Interior.

Bright, shiny objects

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NO BAG-LIMIT: There’s no love lost between Muldoon Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux and her former supporters. This sign appeared in front of the Legislative Information Offices in Anchorage last week and others were spotted around the city before the ground froze. No word on who is leading the charge, but Alaska Republican Party Chairman Tuckerman Babcock has targeted LeDoux for replacement.

PREDICTIONS: With a razor-thin majority, the new Democrat-dominated House leadership team should double down on their flu shots. They won’t be able to take any days off during the 30th Alaska Legislative session. These are folks who are quite used to taking time off, having served in the minority for so long, and their attendance records suck. Now that they chair committees, no more long bike rides for Matt Claman, District 21, who chairs Judiciary. Neal Foster of Nome will have to be careful not to be gone during his Finance committee meetings during the Iditarod.

Word has it that Rep. LeDoux wants to hire three staffers for her Rules office. But Rep. Craig Johnson only had two last year, after deciding that he needed to lead by example and trim costs. We’ve been told that LeDoux longtime staffer Lisa Vaught and Lesil McGuire staffer Amy Saltzman will be working for LeDoux. And one other person, if LeDoux can swing it.

As for other staffers for the new majority, some conservative staff members will move over but we hear there is a scramble to find qualified people, which means the House committees will be run by inexperienced lawmakers with inexperienced staff members. What can possibly go wrong?screen-shot-2016-11-27-at-9-15-24-pm

CONNIE GODWIN, 90, PASSES INTO HISTORY: Connie Godwin, who spent more than 20 years as the press secretary to Sen. Ted Stevens, died Nov. 15 at a nursing center in Chestertown, Md. at age 90. According to the Washington Post, she was a newspaper reporter and editor for The Anchorage Times.

After moving to Chestertown in 1980, she became a part-time press secretary to Stevens and eventually held the job full time, staying in Washington during the week.

AGDC MISSES DEADLINE: Not to speak ill of the dead, but the transfer of the AK-LNG project to state control is not going well. Alaska Gasline Development Corp. President Keith Meyer told the board this month that the agency blew past the deadline for a signed agreement. But not to worry: “I would say that all things are moving well. I don’t detect anything that’s going to stop the process,” he added, saying the state will still control the project by the year’s end.

MEANWHILE, IN CHINA: The charmingly named Methane Julia Louise is heading for Ningbo, China’s eastern coast, with a load of shale natural gas, liquefied at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal. U.S. shipments are breaking records —  Nine LNG tankers have departed or are scheduled to leave Sabine Pass in November, the most for any month since exports began.

STELLENBOSCH HISTORY REPEATS: From one of our Juneau correspondents, a reminder that Stellenbosch, a part of the Cape Colony, was a 19th Century outpost for officers who had failed in the Kaffir Wars.

When you say you’re “Stellenbosching” someone, it means you are demoting them to an unimportant post, due to their incompetence.

Gov. Bill Walker has created all manner of positions to slide his cronies into them and pay them when they have failed at their last post. He did so for former Attorney General Craig Richards, who crashed spectacularly this year. And he’s done so for former Chief of Staff Jim Whitaker, who was “demoted up” to work on special projects.

Walker is writing letters to enlist municipalities and their lobbyists in pushing for an income tax, but between the gazillions he has spent on people like Rigdon Boykin, Radoslav Shipkoff and a host of other special friends, can anyone really say Walker is running a tight ship that is worthy of our tax dollars?

Rudyard Kipling gets credit for creating the verb “stellenbosch,” when he wrote in the Daily Express, on June 16, 1900, “After all, what does it matter old man?  You’re bound to be Stellenbosched in three days.” (Yes, there will be a quiz.)

GILLAM FOR DOI? FOR GOVERNOR? The question was put to Bob Gillam last week: Are you running for governor? “If we do, we’ll win,” he said, cornered within earshot of Must Read Alaska. Now the news is he is angling for the Secretary of the Interior post, which might make a good gubernatorial launchpad.

RISE OF FAKE NEWS? Oh really? Here we’ve been complaining about the liberal media bias for years, but all of a sudden an outbreak of “fake news” is “news”? Do go on…

OLD MEDIA IS THE NEW FAKE NEWS: Political reporters are demanding that Donald Trump cite the source for everything he says. His latest tweet about illegals voting? They want proof and they want it now. Play the game of “spot the bias” in this NY Times top story.

THAT TIME THEY LAUGHED AT TRUMP OVER VOTE-RIGGING CLAIMS: But that’s him. Not them. A recount is under way in Wisconsin.

“This was a hack-riddled election,” said Green Party member Jill Stein (the media did not say “with no evidence.”) Recounts could take place also in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The margins make it unlikely that the costly move will end up giving Clinton a win in all three states, which would be needed for the overall presidential election result to change.

Hillary Clinton has signaled she is on-board for a recount. Of course she is. Play your second round of “spot the bias.”

Citizens United working well for Democrats

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SUPREME COURT RULING USED MOST EFFECTIVELY BY THE LEFT IN ALASKA

Citizens United, a conservative group, brought a First Amendment lawsuit against the Federal Elections Commission in 2010.

The success of that lawsuit made the group very famous, and very much hated by the Left.

When Citizens won and the FEC lost at the U.S. Supreme Court, Americans confirmed their right to somewhat unrestricted free election-related speech.

The liberal intelligentsia has not stopped gnashing its teeth ever since. The conventional meme you’ll hear from MSNBC talking heads is that corporations dominate elections with their independent expenditure largess, and therefore it’s end times for democracy.

That happens to be wrong.

In reality, since Citizens United won, Big Labor, public employee unions, and billionaires like George Soros have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to sway elections for candidates and causes that increase the salaries of public employees, grow government, and stymie free enterprise through intense regulation.

During Alaska’s most recent election cycle, this played out as well-funded liberal advocates outspent business-friendly groups by a stunning margin in the legislative races.

For every $1 the business-friendly groups spent, Big Labor spent $1.31.

If you add in Big Enviro and Big Abort (Planned Parenthood), the Left spent $1.60 to elect mainly Democrats for every $1.00 spent by pro-business groups to elect mainly Republicans.

The Left-vs-Right expenditures are asymmetrical, indeed, but the effectiveness of the groups’ efforts is the real story.

The Left simply spent their money better: They targeted earlier, committed their funds with precision, knew what they had to spend, and who they would spend it on.

The Right fragmented. It’s remarkable the business groups performed as well as they did for candidates, considering the fracturing.

Besides Americans for Prosperity-Alaska, a grassroots organizing group, just one free-enterprise independent expenditure group emerged to advance business-friendly candidates and agendas during both the primary and general elections: The Accountability Project (TAP), which formed in 2012.

TAP spent $271,000 in both the Primary and General elections this year, much of it in support of Sens. Cathy Giessel and John Coghill. Both had tough races against Democrats (one masquerading as an independent).

The Democrats were well-funded by Big Labor and Anchorage attorney Robin Brena, who serves as Governor Bill Walker’s surrogate, allowing the governor to “not takes sides.”

Joining the Alaska State Senate slugfest were other left-of-center monied interests. The funding was in the form of direct campaign cash as well as a barrage of Independent Expenditure not directly tied to the candidates.

Another business-friendly group, The Truth-Alaska (TTA), chaired by Dan Coffey also put $100,309 in at the 11th hour to come to the aid of Sen. Giessel.

TAP and TTA pushed hard against Giessel’s challenger, AFL-CIO Labor Boss Vince Beltrami, who was seen by some as the biggest threat to clean government since convicted racketeer Lew Dischner, Alaska’s first-ever Labor commissioner under Democrat Gov. Bill Egan.

The Accountability Project also helped unseat Rep. Jim Colver, who was considered an unreliable conservative by thinking Republicans. His re-election hopes were dashed by challenger George Rauscher in the District 9 primary, in spite of heavy spending by Left-leaning expenditure groups.

TAP spent thousands of dollars to defend Anchorage Rep. Liz Vazquez from a challenge by union-backed Jason Grenn, and TAP worked to unseat Democrat-Independent Rep. Dan Ortiz of Ketchikan.

Those two efforts fell short, as did the attempt to bump off Rep. Paul Seaton, another Democratic-aligned Republican from Homer. All three of those winners surprised no one when they joined the Democratic caucus that now controls the House by a thread.

Recently, TAP analyzed spending differences between liberal and conservative groups that played the “independent expenditure” game during the recent election cycle:

  • Business-friendly independent expenditure groups, (TAP and TTA) spent $346,372.
  • Union-enviro groups spent $455,201.
  • Environmental groups (“The Alaska Center,” specifically) spent $72,791.

MOST ALASKA BUSINESSES ENJOYING A FREE RIDE?

A look through the contributors to The Accountability Project and The Truth-Alaska show only a handful of business leaders actually engage in spending during critical elections. They number about 25 in all.

Hundreds if not thousands of Alaska businesses benefit from the policies defended by these few business owners and the lawmakers they support. If more business leaders were to understand independent expenditures as crucial, they could easily move the needle and neutralize the Left’s overwhelming advantage.

And yet, compounding the problem was fragmentation within the business community itself.

Case in point: Some business leaders targeted Republican House member Liz Vazquez for defeat because she was seen as unresponsive to using Permanent Fund earnings to plug the State’s budget gap. Instead, they supported her labor-backed opponent, Jason Grenn.

At the same time, The Accountability Project worked for Vazquez’ re-election in order to defend the Republican-led House majority.

It was so close: She lost by only 180 votes.

If Vazquez had not run into headwinds with some business leaders, the House might not have flipped to Democratic control, which is held by a razor-thin margin.

On the other side of the fulcrum, Governor Bill Walker’s political doppelganger Robin Brena, unions, enviros, and Planned Parenthood, were entirely aligned on their choice of candidates. They didn’t work at cross-purposes — it was all for one and one for all.

Their reward is a Democrat-led majority in control of the Alaska House of Representatives, even though Republicans have the technical advantage.

THIS IS NOT YOUR DAD’S POLITICAL SYSTEM

“The ink wasn’t even dry on the Citizens United Supreme Court decision before the unions started getting revved up” to take advantage of it, said Scott Hawkins, who is the treasurer for The Accountability Project.

The asymmetrical political savvy between the business community and the unions is a problem, he said. For unions and environmental groups, this is their full-time work. Same with Planned Parenthood. But business leaders have companies to run.

“They don’t do politics full time and many of them still think it’s gentleman’s game,” Hawkins said.

The fragmenting of the business-friendly independent expenditure groups’ efforts nearly cost the elections of Reps. Lance Pruitt and Charisse Millett, both of Anchorage, according to other political observers.

“The fact is, no individual organizes the House or Senate. Only a team does that, and the team is either Republican or Democrat.” – Tuckerman Babcock

“The independent expenditure groups on the Left did not support any Republicans, except Rep. Colver, who was an incumbent. But the ones on the right — the business-oriented ones — do not always pay attention to the team approach,” said Tuckerman Babcock, chairman of the Alaska Republican Party. “They are picking and choosing, and it can be both naive and self-destructive.

“The fact is, no individual organizes the House or Senate. Only a team does that, and the team is either Republican or Democrat,” he said.

CLOSING THE DOOR AFTER THE MUSK OX GET OUT?

In recent years, business has been closing the financial gap and using its money more effectively. As a result, the 2016 election cycle nationwide was a Republican sweep. Republicans now dominate the nation’s legislatures at record levels, controlling 69 of 99 state legislative chambers and 33 governorships.

Twenty-five states now have both a Republican governor and Republican-led legislatures.

But not in Alaska. Three Alaskan psuedo-Republican lawmakers — Republicans Gabrielle LeDoux, Paul Seaton, and Louise Stutes — bolted to join the Democrats, and by doing so changed the power structure of the Alaska House of Representatives to be beholden to Big Government and Big Labor. The Musk Ox Coalition pulled off a coup against its own Republican Party.

TIME, TREASURE, AND TALONS

Labor and environmental groups have another advantage: Timeliness. They have pots of money they can easily and quickly transfer into independent expenditure groups. As a result, they get their talons sunk deeply into legislative races early in the election cycle.

The business community in Alaska, however, doesn’t get into the mood until they hear the campaigns are in full swing and start to fear the outcome. By then, the Left has already been on the airwaves for weeks and many voters have made up their minds — quite a few may have already voted early or absentee. That means the late-arriving dollars have barely half the impact they might have had if they’d been available earlier in the cycle.

A natural counterbalance to left-leaning groups, the business trade associations, have the resources to engage earlier. But, they have been largely missing in action on the independent expenditure front. Most such business associations in Alaska have been reluctant to support independent expenditures for candidates, although they have shown a willingness to engage in defeating hostile ballot initiatives. This is another example of the asymmetry between Big Labor and business advocates.

An important exception to this rule is The Alaska Chamber of Commerce. This year, the State Chamber stepped up with about $30,000 in funds for both The Accountability Project and The Truth-Alaska.

Chamber President Curtis Thayer is well versed in today’s political realities and has been effective in explaining the stakes to his executive board.

The stakes are high indeed. Over the next two years, the House majority and the governor are likely to exert tremendous pressure on the Senate’s solid Republican majority to go along with debilitating increases in oil taxes, and a grab-bag of other taxes and fees on households, business and industry, all in the service of supporting higher State spending than Alaska can possibly afford.

The loss of the Alaska House to Democrat control has weakened considerably the firewall protecting the business community from the governor’s many business-hostile policy proposals.

These stakes will only get higher. Until the business community fully engages and eliminates the asymmetry between it and the left-of-center groups, things may go sideways for Alaska’s private sector.

Cuba libre: After Fidel, what will Raul do?

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RAUL CASTRO WAS NOT LARGER THAN LIFE. HE WAS HUNCHED OVER A BAR NAPKIN

I walked into the dining room on the sixth floor of the Hotel Nacional de Cuba, and there I shook hands with Raul Castro.

It was 2004 and I was engaged in a humanitarian trip to Cuba, an outreach to the fragments of the Anglican-Episcopal empire that worked quietly for the poor, some who were under the crushing thumb of Communism.

We had brought clothing and toys for children — our way of bridging the gap between the free world and the Communist fortress. The people had nothing. The children literally had no toys — none. We had to show them how to use the yo-yos with which we loaded down our suitcases.

We visited with doctors, priests, had our requisite number of mojitos, and — when our Communist minder allowed — we escaped her keen scrutiny to visit with ordinary Cubans. Fact-finding, it was — and I have not written of it until this day.

My meeting with Raul was anything but ordinary. He was hunched over a paper napkin, talking business with a mall developer from the States, who was a very good friend of mine and a fellow traveler on Episcopal mission. A Christian who was born in Lebanon and was now an American, he had the toughest time getting into Cuba with us, and very nearly was turned away because of his birth country showing on his passport. Communists in Cuba are very opposed to terrorists of any sort.

But now, the Cubans were loving him: From the looks of it, my friend and Raul were best buddies planning a strip mall or two in Havana. But of that detail I will never know.

What I did find out is that if you’re on the sixth floor of the Hotel Nacional, you could find any manner of business being conducted, even under the thumb of the Communist Party. There was an American cattleman, importing cattle from Florida. There were Germans and Canadians, and Dutch, all there to create markets in what they knew would be a nation that could not stay communistic forever. Raul made a practice of being on the sixth floor on a regular, if not daily basis.

Raul, who is today the president of Cuba, was a calm, friendly, courteous and unassuming man, just as he appears in the media. He looked me right in the eyes and was gracious.

It was whispered at the time that he would be running the country in short order. Already it was known that Fidel was feeble at best. I didn’t think he had what it took, but that was just a hunch based on a five-minute encounter.

While I was visiting, it was also whispered — everything sensitive was whispered — that the government still held 29 journalists it had rounded up the year prior during what became known as Black Spring, a crackdown on Cuban dissidents. The Communist government rounded up 75 Cubans that it didn’t like, and that included the 29 journalists (and bloggers), as well as librarians, human rights activists, and those who had used the internet to communicate to the world details of the repressive regime of Castro.

Castro’s government accused them of being on the payroll of the U.S. government, chargin them with collaborating with American diplomats. The crackdown was done during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, so that the media would be distracted. It was a shrewd move — the media was very disinclined to criticize Fidel Castro.

It was a message, however, and the Cubans were highly sensitive to its meaning. Hardly anyone would speak to us in candor.

A few short years later, Raul Castro took the reins for good, and President Barack Obama made short work of reestablishing “normal relations” with our island neighbor. This year, it will be a very hip thing to have a Cuban stamp in your passport, but we mission workers avoided that in 2004 and the Cuban customs agents knew better than to cause us that kind of trouble. You’d have some explaining to do to American customs officials if you sported such a stamp.

I count many Cuban-Americans as friends, and they no doubt are dancing the salsa this weekend. To a one of them, they hate Fidel Castro and all he represents. They have had family members die trying to reach dry land in the United States. They’ve had other family members thrown into prison. They’ve lost their family homes, which were stolen from them and given to members of the Communist Party.

Yes, there will be dancing and there will be toasting across Florida today, where the Cuban-American community is its strongest.

And I’ll be raising a glass of mint-muddled mojito to them. Long live freedom. The Cold War may not be entirely dead, but one of the worst offenders of human rights in our lifetimes certainly is dead. And I’m good with that.

 

That time when Pete’s pants froze to the floor…

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PASS ALONG STORIES, HOLD THE OPINIONS

Wearing torn Wrangler jeans and a thin wool jacket, my brother was checking his trap line as he punched his way through the wet November snow. It was raining sideways, and he was up to his thighs in heavy drifts, a mile from the road.

Jeans are what we wore in the 1970s because that’s what we had from the Montgomery Ward catalog. That, and waffle-weave henley shirts made of an impossibly itchy blend of wool and cotton. There wasn’t a shred of technical fabric anywhere, too much cotton, not nearly enough wool, and no adequate layers for 10-year-old boys.

Wool and maybe some stiff rubberized rain gear would be the layers, if you had them: Smelly halibut jackets, which always seemed to be heavy with Southeast Alaska southeasterlies. Yellow slicker if you could muster one.

When he arrived at an old deserted FAA cabin, that 10-year-old boy was dog-tired, and the cold had sucked every shred of warmth from his bones. His backpack, heavy now, a cotton-batting sleeping bag, a can of Sterno paired with a can of chili were of little help: The matches were wet, his fingers were too cold to open the can, the sleeping bag was damp.

Dropping those soaked blue jeans to the tattered floor of the shack, Pete laid them out flat underneath his sleeping bag, into which he escaped for whatever warmth his young heart could pump toward his extremities. He figured he could dry the wet jeans out that way, body heat and all.

There he fell asleep — the sleep of a hypothermic 10-year-old boy braving the cold and the dark of Thanksgiving eve in Alaska.

In the morning, the sun rose crisp and sparkling, and the temperature had dropped into the low 20s. Those jeans had become stiff as lumber, ice penetrating every fiber, and they were frozen to the cabin floor.

As the family lore goes, he was stuck for hours in his tighty-whities, curled like a hedghog inside his sleeping bag, waiting for someone — anyone — to come to his rescue.

Seeing as it was Thanksgiving Day and his absence was noted back at the Fritz Cove cabin where we lived, a search party led by my father started out, following Pete’s trapline and ragged tracks to the old abandoned cabin.

That night, we gathered around the shortwave radio and listened to Russian trawlers chatter back and forth, somewhere out in the great vast ocean. The fireplace blazed and the warmth never felt so good. Pete was safe at the hearth.

With much to be thankful for, and we coined the family saying: You can’t have an adventure if you aren’t in a bit of peril. That, and don’t forget to bring flares.

The advice would come in handy over a lifetime of adventures and misadventures.

A few years later, circa 1978, that Alaska-raised brother walked off the ferry in Seward to attend a newly launched culinary school at what is now AVTEC. The gravy I make this Thanksgiving Day was taught to me by Pete, who learned it from the Seward Culinary Academy. People say I make the best gravy in the world, and I take pride that the 40-year-old culinary academy taught me, in a roundabout way, how to properly brown a roux.

CHERISH AND BE GENEROUS

We are traveling or we are staying put this week. We gather with family or we cobble together tribes, and at times we settle for makeshift food – for some meager, for some on a hospital tray, and for some of us, just too much of a good thing.

We talk, watch the games, give thanks, and if we’re smart, we practice forbearance in our politics for just this one day.

Our children, sponges that they are, will hear every word.

As one who has written analysis and opinion for a career, I know well the temptation to hold forth. You will be asked your opinion, but heed my advice: Do not take the bait.

Instead, go for the stories. You’re an Alaskan, so you’ve got stories in spades. They don’t have to be grand stories. They can be about someone’s pants freezing to the floor.

We Alaskans have more to offer each other in legends than any sentence that fades off into a reluctantly uttered, “in my  humble opinion.”

We can leave our political rasps at the door for now and polish the stories of our lives instead. In gratitude, we can blow at the embers of our Alaska lore, and it will rise up like life itself from the Thanksgiving table, surround us with wonder and love, and seep into the DNA of the young people who are seemingly oblivious, but who are, in fact, the keepers of the memories.

We are people of the frontier. At times we indulge in the notion that we are more special because of it. This Thanksgiving, we can make good on that sense of “terminal uniqueness” by delving into the imperfect, hilarious, hair-raising, mind-boggling tales that have shaped our rough-hewn lives.

Dig deep and mine the memories. There you’ll encounter the poignant, the unforgettable, and the formative. Listen and be humble. Go for the ancient truths.

The hand-picked, high-bush cranberries and best gravy on God’s earth will be long gone. The politics will churn and change. Our leaders will frustrate and offend. This we know for certain and this we need not inventory right now.

But, with a bit of coaxing and even a spot of embellishing, the dark-and-stormy-night stories of Alaskans will live on.

Cabinet picks who might be pro-Alaska

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President-elect Trump is filling out his cabinet picks, starting with important security positions, such as National Security Adviser, Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. Some more picks are to be announced today.

Let’s take a look at a strong Defense Secretary possibility, with some biographical facts with which you can dazzle your Thanksgiving meal mates.


GEN. JAMES MATTIS: “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.”

James “Mad Dog” Mattis, who was once on the list for a Trump vice presidential pick, is the odds-on favorite for Defense. He’s a Marine.

Side note: U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan is a Marine. Sullivan is trying to get a unit of Marines established in Alaska, and even brought the commandant of the Marines to Alaska this summer. So far, so good.

Gen. Mattis was born in Pullman, Wash. and is a northwesterner through and through, graduating from Columbia High School in Richland, Wash. in 1968.

A Marine who has never married nor had children, his other nickname is “The Warrior Monk” because of his bachelor life, and the fact he devoted his life to studying and fighting war. He is known to have carried a copy of the Meditations of Marcus Aurelius throughout his deployments.

He also used to publish required reading lists for Marines under his command. President Obama appointed Mattis to replace General David Petraeus in 2010. Mattis retired in 2013.

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ALASKA-FRIENDLY SECRETARY OF STATE? Another western-friendly guy, Mitt Romney, is a leading choice. Romney traveled to Alaska in 2014 to campaign for Sen. Dan Sullivan, and won Alaska’s electoral vote for president in 2012. He’s a favorite among many Alaska Republicans.

There’s also former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker. And some also-rans.
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SEC. TREADWELL FOR INTERIOR? Mead Treadwell, Alaska’s former lieutenant governor, is in the mix for Department of Interior, joining the list of possibilities:

Jan Brewer, former Arizona governor
Mary Fallin, Oklahoma governor
Robert Grady, venture capitalist
Harold Hamm, Continental Resources chief executive
Forrest Lucas, Lucas Oil founder
Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming representative
Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor
Richard Pombo, former House National Resources Committee chairman