Sen. Dan Sullivan and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
ALASKA TIME WITH THE PREZ: Alaska has a slot on today’s calendar for President Donald Trump. At noon Alaska time, the president will meet with Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Alaska Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan. The meeting came at the request of the White House, Must Read Alaska has been advised by DC sources.
The appointment that follows on the president’s calendar is at 1:05 pm Alaska time. Trump will meet with conservative leaders on the topic of health care before dining with Sen. Ted Cruz and Mrs. Cruz.
Last week, Gov. Bill Walker sent a letter to the president requesting a meeting. He had asked the delegation to sign it, but there was no action, and no meeting scheduled to include Walker.
The governor asked to make his Alaska Gasline Project the centerpiece of the meeting. It’s a safe bet, however, that the gasline will not be front and center at today’s meeting, according to sources close to the delegation. Walker had a close relationship with the Obama Administration, flying with the former president to Alaska on Air Force One to show him the state and talk to him about the gasline.
The meeting with the senators will more likely touch on the seriousness of Alaska’s recession, due in no small part to the actions of the last president and his Interior Secretary Sally Jewel.
Opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to greater oil exploration may not be front and center, because that will take action from Congress, not the president. However, the many agencies within the Department of Interior that touch Alaska are probably on the agenda.
The King Cove to Cold Bay Road will almost certainly be discussed, we’ve learned.
“This is an opportunity for the DC delegation to make it loud and clear that Obama and Jewell were a reign of terror economically for Alaska, and now we can turn the corner and rebuild our economy,” a DC source told us.
The Walker Administration is negotiating behind closed doors to cut off public access to one of the most popular and unique fishing, hunting and recreation resources in Alaska, the Klutina Lake area.
It is a move that is sure to dismay tens of thousands of Alaskans for whom the area is a deeply important part of their outdoor traditions.
The Klutina Road on the north side of the Richardson Highway runs from near Copper Center to the Klutina Lake area, and uses an historic easement across land owned by Ahtna, Inc.
It’s a road used since Statehood to access salmon country. Thousands upon thousands of Alaskans have traveled to the shores of Klutina Lake, and brought home millions upon millions of omega-3-rich protein from its waters.
Part of a mining road that went from Copper Center to Valdez, it crosses through a lush boreal forest along a legendary river.
Alaskans fish for king and red salmon, arctic grayling and dolly varden in a place where they can launch their boats and do what Alaskans love to do: Catch dinner. It’s a place so important that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game has online pages dedicated to it.
It’s a special sportsman’s paradise to which Gov. Bill Walker is cutting off access.
Through Attorney General Jahna Lindemuth, it appears that the Walker Administration is going behind closed doors to negotiate a right-of-way settlement with Ahtna Corporation, which has challenged a 150-year-old historic trail designation.
RS-2477 is a law passed in 1866 that designates all wagon trails, foot trails, pack trails, and mining roads as official state rights of way. It’s how Alaskans get across federal and state lands and also Native land, and includes iconic places such as the Iditarod trial and much of the Yukon Quest route.
Ahtna wants to downgrade the right-of-way designation from RS-2477 to a lesser 17-B, which would greatly diminish access for Alaskans. A 100-foot right of way would become a 50-foot right of way.
Drivers could not park, camp, or launch boats in the river. In other words, the State government, which has fought for RS-2477 standards for years and has called the area the textbook case of RS-2477 law, is downgrading the public’s access from a gold standard to tin.
The Alaska Outdoor Council is strongly objecting, but most hunters and fishermen have no idea that Walker is selling them down the proverbial river behind closed doors.
The terms of the negotiated settlement have not been made public. But if Walker goes down this road on the Klutina, as the legal documents indicate he is doing, all other landowners affected by RS 2477s could face the same fate — negotiate, settle for cash, or fold and cut off access to all but Native corporation shareholders.
On Feb. 27, 2017, Alaska Superior Court issued a stipulated motion for stay, which states, “Ahtna, Inc. and the State of Alaska are pleased to report a tentative settlement of this long-running dispute.” The order then cancels the April 24, 2017 trial date and says, “The parties will work to finalize the settlement and obtain necessary client approvals within the next 90 days.”
That sidesteps all public process for giving up State sovereignty over legal rights-of-way.
THE ALASKA OUTDOOR COUNCIL AND ALASKA’S HISTORIC TRAILS
Congress granted states and territories rights-of-way over federal lands in the Mining Law of 1866, with the exception of military land and reservations. Covered under the law are foot trails, pack trails, sled dog trails, wagon roads, mail routes, and other seasonal or permanent public access.
The Organic Act extended general land laws to the territory in 1884. Up until 1968, when the Secretary of the Interior issued Public Land Order 4582, “the land freeze,” to allow for settlement of Alaska Native land claims, these historic rights-of-way were established to help citizens access public resources, including lands and waters.
When Congress then repealed the 1866 law in 1976, it preserved all pre-existing rights-of-way for public access.
In 1998, Alaska Statute 19.30.400 defined the States’s rights and responsibility to assert and manage these public rights-of-way for all Alaskans, and ordered “every effort” be made to minimize effect on private property owners while protecting public rights to use the historic access.
The mining trail from Valdez to Copper Center is part of the 1898 Gold Rush transportation system of camps and staging areas along the Klutina River. By 1960, a road was constructed and maintained by the state.
State law asserts that the RS 2477 road is 100-foot wide, historically used for activities related to transportation such as parking, stopping, camping, and accessing other public lands and waters, and includes numerous side trails and camping sites established prior to land conveyance to Ahtna, Inc.
The Bureau of Land Management issued an interim conveyance to Ahtna, Inc. in 1980, reserving a 60-foot easement along the road and a 24-foot trail easement for the trail toward Valdez, where it crosses Ahtna land.
Ahtna sued the State in 2008, saying the road is not an historic trail. Ahtna has this list of demands that the State is now bargaining away behind closed doors:
Limit the State’s authority to maintain, repair, and improve the road and rights-of-ways only
with Ahtna, Inc. approval
Cash payment for public trespass on Ahtna land
Limit width of the 100-foot easement to 60 feet or less based on usage
No parking, rest areas, or accessing the Klutina River or other public land
Terminate the RS 2477 designation wherever it overlaps the 17(b) easement so public uses of the road are
subject to federal regulations rather than State law
In 2013 Athna wrote, “Ahtna has made a good faith effort to settle the dispute with the State in order to preserve the Klutina drainage, but each attempt has failed because the State refuses to place any limitation on the expansive scope of its claimed RS 2477 ROW and associated recreational amenities.”
Previous governors have upheld the State’s public trust to preserve access to longstanding recreational areas, but it appears that Gov. Walker’s Administration is now on a clear path to yield State sovereignty to the federal government, tribes or other entities whenever he faces a legal challenge.
AND THAT’S A PROBLEM: It’s not lost on downtown Anchorage Assembly candidate Chris Cox that his lifelong neighborhood has a murder rate that exceeds that of Chicago.
In fact, you’re nearly twice as likely to be murdered in downtown Anchorage as you are in the Windy City, he said. And that is saying something.
With 26,000 people, Assembly District 1 would have 7 murders a year to be equal to Chicago’s murder rate. But in 2016, it saw 13 murders.
It was a new record that Chris Cox says has to be reversed.
District 1B, the most diverse neighborhood in the city and probably the state, should be up in arms over violent crime, says Cox. It’s such a big issue for him that, at this point in his campaign for the election that takes place April 4, crime has become his focal point. He’s up on step about it.
That, and the rate the city is burning through its cash on things that are frivolous. That also needs to change, he said. Property taxes are high enough. But back to the murder capital of Alaska…
“Overall, Anchorage is roughly twice as bad [for homicides] as the entire country,” Cox said. “We need more police officers on the streets. We need to take better care of them. We especially need genuine support from the community.”
He should know. The son of a career police officer, Cox was raised in East Anchorage with strict law-and-order family values. He graduated from East Anchorage High School, finished college in Texas, and then came back to start making a living.
His first home out of college was a youth hostel in downtown Anchorage, and that showed him the need for affordable housing.
Through time, sweat equity, trial and error, he ended up owning several rooming houses in the downtown core, and 90 percent of his tenants were clearly struggling with their lives — they were addicted, in and out of jail, had mental health or resiliency issues, and were trying to get back on their feet.
Cox gave them tough love and a place to live. But he was not a pushover: “90 percent of them didn’t have the money to move in, so I had to work with them.”
Cox also bought and refurbished hotels, owned a bar or two, an automotive company, and a concert promotion company.
“If it looked like a door in front of me, and I thought I could make a go of it, I’d go through it,” Cox said.
Then he got cancer. He survived, reassessed his priorities, and decided to get involved helping redirect the path that Anchorage is on.
“I got an email from [Assembly member] Patrick Flynn who said, if you think you can do a better job, then go do it. So I said to myself, ‘I will.'”
Cox, who is a registered Republican, is one of several candidates running for District 1B, which encompasses Downtown, Mountain View, Government Hill, Inlet View, South Addition, and Bootleggers Cove. He has lived in Westchester Lagoon, but now lives in Fairview, where he is in the process of buying a home.
His other concerns are education and keeping Anchorage’s municipal budget fiscally conservative.
“If you have to make a choice, I always favor fire and police over everything else,” he said.
A meet-and-greet fundraiser for Cox will be held at Fat Ptarmigan, 441 5th Street, Anchorage, from 4-7 pm today, March 7.
Others who have filed for this downtown seat being vacated by Assembly member Patrick Flynn include:
Christopher Constant
Christopher Constant, a Democrat who is former president of Fairview Community Council, Constant has worked as an administrator at Akeela Inc., which is a substance-abuse nonprofit, and as a real estate manager.
David Dunsmore is a Democrat’s Democrat. He’s a former aide to Fairbanks Rep. Adam Wool, and to Assemblyman Pete Petersen. He has served as a caucus director for the Alaska Democratic Party in Alaska’s Capitol, where he was the liaison between the party and Democrat legislators. He has the endorsement of Democrat and union manager Rep. Chris Tuck.
Mark Alan Martinson is registered nonpartisan who has run for the Assembly in prior years. The audio-visual technician is also a Segway tour guide with E Street Audio Visual in Anchorage.
Albert Langdon Swank Jr. is unaffiliated, leans Democrat, and is a consultant and owner of an Anchorage engineering and scientific services firm.
Warren West is a Republican who is retired from the US Air Force. He served during the Vietnam Era and then started an electronics business, Westcom. He also has extensive experience in the schools and teaching CPR.
The Juneau Whale Project, photographed by Ron Giles (from the project’s Facebook page)
The Juneau City and Borough Assembly on Monday voted to continue the existing practice that exempts cruise ship passengers from an onboard sales tax. It’s a “wet foot tax” Juneau could technically collect from visitors who are underway in the waters of the borough.
Currently, the city collects about $8 million in sales taxes from passengers and crew once their feet hit the docks and they visit stores and restaurants.
But while they are onboard the ships, the city hasn’t extended its sales tax to those purchases that occur as the ships motor to and from the city.
Ships enter and exit the borough far south of Juneau and have a few sales — such as alcohol, salon, and spa sales — that could be taxed.
Some, like Assembly member Jesse Kiehl, wanted to squeeze out that extra $100,000 of anticipated revenue for the city. The pro-tax crowd pushed to have the exemption lifted, and some pushed hard at last night’s meeting.
TAXATION CHANGES BEHAVIOR
Taxing passengers while they are floating to and from the port could have unintended consequences, however.
Rather than having to collect taxes on bottles of wine at onboard meals, ships could choose to leave an hour earlier to make sure they were out of the borough before onboard dinner starts. They’d avoid the extra hassle of bookkeeping for the $100,000 or so remittance to the city, and they’d save their passengers money.
But that extra hour would mean a huge loss of sales at local shops and restaurants, because the hour before the ships leave is prime retail time in the downtown core, as visitors return from their day trips and mill about the shops for last-minute gift items before returning to their ship. In other words, lifting the exemption could conceivably result in fewer tax collections at the end of the cruise day.
Alaskans well know the value of a tax break: For years and years, when traveling to Washington state, Alaskans have been quick to whip out their Alaska driver’s licenses to avoid paying Washington’s 6.5 percent sales tax, which when local sales taxes are added can reach 9.9 percent.
But some revenue seekers in Juneau were not ready to extend the same courtesy exemption to visitors entering Alaska’s capital by cruise ship.
More than one million people arrive on cruise ships in downtown Juneau during the five-month cruising season. Between the sales and passenger tax, the city collects more than $20 million a year.
WHALE OF A LAWSUIT
In a separate measure, the Juneau Assembly voted to spend sales tax money instead of passenger head tax money to continue defending itself against a lawsuit from the cruise industry.
The lawsuit involves a manmade island that houses a whale sculpture that is the subject of much controversy because the project construction was made possible by passenger taxes.
Using passenger taxes to pay lawyers to fight cruise lines over a passenger tax didn’t seem like a friendly gesture, so the Assembly voted to replace that litigation money with regular unrestricted sales tax.
The litigation was brought last year by the industry because it felt the city was not spending passenger taxes on legally allowed uses, but instead building discretionary projects of little or no value to the cruising public.
Rorie Watt, city manager of Juneau, included a draft ordinance in the Assembly packet that would award his office an additional $100,000 to pay lawyers to defend the city in the lawsuit the cruise industry had brought over the development of The Whale Project, which the industry believes is not an appropriate use of the passenger tax because it is too far from the docks to be a practical amenity for the tourism sector.
The city has already spent $280,000 defending the project — never mind the cost of the project itself — as it heads into a trial that is expected later this year.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” — Charles Dickens
Win Gruening
Several weeks ago, the Juneau Empire Readers’ Council wrote an editorial that chastised Assembly members for drafting an ordinance (modeled on one in Ketchikan) that would exempt passengers from paying sales tax while aboard a cruise ship within the City and Borough of Juneau boundaries. The readers’ council states the ordinance deserves careful attention. I wholeheartedly agree.
The issue is a relevant one and worthy of discussion. But the editorial did little to shed light on the subject. Instead, it chose misleading and incomplete information to illustrate its case.
In claiming the exemption is “ignorant” and the cruise lines are engaged in “corporate hypocrisy,” the readers’ council has once again demonstrated an animosity toward the cruise industry and furthered their quest to demonize it. This kind of hyperbolic invective does little inform the public – it’s foolish and unnecessary.
Let’s place the issue in perspective. Cruise ship passengers are already paying sales tax. Eight million dollars in sales taxes annually, to be exact. They pay sales tax on all their purchases and their tours on shore while in Juneau.
These revenues are on top of the $13 million in marine passenger fees Juneau receives from cruise ship passengers (whether they get off the ship or not). These “head taxes” are not charged on any other “non-cruise” visitor coming to Juneau.
Cruise lines are not suddenly “refusing to collect sales tax” as the editorial states. Historically, city has never required collection of on-board sales tax because there have been and continue to be legal impediments to doing so. Assembly Finance Committee staff recommended existing practice be codified by exempting these specific on-board sales from tax after a study was completed last year. Only recently, has the city decided to move forward on implementing collection of the tax.
The editorial conveniently doesn’t mention the industry appealed city staff’s decision and provided a lengthy legal analysis supporting exemption. Despite that, the city’ Legal Department has disputed this – hence the need for an ordinance.
By choosing to dismiss the legal aspects of this debate the editorial has instead focused on how unfair it would be to ignore collecting sales taxes on board a ship when these same taxes are collected elsewhere in the borough.
Except they aren’t.
There are dozens of sales tax exemptions in the city tax code. Among them are various banking services, optometrists, chiropractors, realtors, nonprofits and lobbyists, just to name a few. There are various reasons for these exemptions but I could make the argument any one of them is “unfair” on its face.
The editorial asks why a fisherman must collect sales tax for fish sold at the dock if a cruise ship would not be required to when a passenger makes a purchase aboard a ship.
One could also wonder why the Juneau Arts and Humanities Council and Sealaska Heritage are not required to collect sales tax on their retail sales when every other store in Juneau is required to do so. Is that fair? They are competing directly with private businesses in downtown Juneau, often selling similar products, and yet enjoy a distinct competitive advantage.
On the other hand, it is hard to see how a coffee kiosk, pool-side bar or salon on a cruise ship competes with any downtown business. The sales tax derived from these limited activities operating while in port would be minimal and, in any case, these services are not open to the public (as is the fisherman’s business).
The editorial suggests the cruise industry is cheating Juneau taxpayers by requesting that existing tax collection practices be continued to avoid the complications associated with the collection of on-board taxes – taxes that would be minimal at best. It’s likely this would result in an accounting exercise that could easily cost more than the amount that would be collected. How wise is that?
City staff interprets the city boundary to include the waters surrounding Juneau meaning cruise ships transiting area waters from Tracy Arm to Berners Bay would be subject to the sales tax. How does a cruise ship correctly identify every on-board purchase subject to tax based on the GPS position of the ship? Add the complication of pre-paid purchases and the accounting issues involved would be a nightmare – especially when expecting cruise lines to report and remit monthly to the city.
If city begins collecting these additional taxes on all cruise ships, Juneau will be the sole municipality in Alaska with this requirement. Is that a distinction Juneau needs right now?
The Assembly should move ahead in passing this ordinance. Why give cruise lines one more reason to cut short their stays in Juneau?
Win Gruening was born and raised in Juneau and retired as the senior vice president in charge of business banking for Key Bank in 2012. He is active in civic affairs at the local, state, and national level.
OUTRAGEOUS-CARE: An Alaskan sent us the final tally that she and her husband would owe if they signed up for Obamacare.
The two own a business and buy their insurance on the Orwellian-named “Affordable Care Act” insurance market, which has one company left in Alaska. The couple has decided they cannot afford the coverage and are now without health insurance for the first time in their lives. Check out the bottom line in “Affordable” — it’s $38,733 a year out-of-pocket:
– When the Republican House Minority filed into House Finance Committee to sit in silent witness against a still-too-large budget, we had to ask: Has that ever been done before?
– Why was Rep. Dan Ortiz, at the beginning of the Education committee meeting he chairs, so quick to welcome the representatives from National Education Association into the meeting room? That would be like Rep. Geran Tarr, co-chair of House Resources, welcoming the lobbyist from the Wilderness Society. Oh wait…
– Will there be fireworks over relinquishing state sovereignty during the Attorney General Jahna Lindemuth’s Senate Judiciary appearance this week? The House Judiciary Committee forwarded her name, with Rep. David Eastman the lone vote against her…
– Are Sen. Donny and Willow Olson really expecting twins? (We actually know the answer: Yes, they are, according to the ultrasound.)
– What? Is it true Sen. David Wilson has a service dog in the Capitol?
– Who put together the fab new Andy Josephson spoof twitter handle with items like these?
GOOD TV: Was it camera operator Cale Green’s idea to dress up Liz Raines, KTVA political reporter, who illustrated the history of the Alaska Education Tax, complete with era-appropriate costume and flinging of the hat? If so, great idea. Rep. Matt Claman wants to resurrect the tax, which could cost some Alaskans up to $8,500 a year if they’re making bank. We’re coveting the hat, Liz:
BAD TV: Who will tell Rep. Justin Parish to stop eating during House Resource Committee meetings? It makes for gross TV:
SENATE FINANCE PERMA-FUND BILLS GET PUBLIC TESTIMONY TODAY: Senate Finance is taking public testimony on the Permanent Fund restructuring bills: SB 70, SB 21, and SB 26 today (Monday) at 4 pm.
SB 70 is offered by the Senate Finance Committee and would draw about 5.25 percent of the average market value from the Earnings Reserve Account of the Permanent Fund over five years. That yields $1.8 billion for state services, pays $1,000 in Permanent Fund dividends, and seems to have the support of the governor, according to his Commissioner of Revenue Randy Hoffbeck.
SB 21 is offered by Sen. Bert Stedman, and limits a draw to 4.5 percent of the average market value of the fund for the first five of the last six fiscal years. Stedman says this will allow the fund to grow, and would allocate 2.25 percent or more for dividends. That’s why this is called the 50-50 plan.
SB 26 is the governor’s plan to restructure how the Permanent Fund Earning Reserve Account works, and is similar to SB 70.
If you can’t get to an LIO, call in at 1-844-586-8085 or send an email to [email protected].
A comparison of the different budget fixes is posted at Alaska’s Future website.
SEN. MIKE DUNLEAVY HAS A QUESTION FOR YOU: Seriously, there’s one question on this survey, and you’re going to want to answer it like the State’s budget depends on it.
SENATE RESOURCES: The governor’s Board of Game appointments will be heard in Senate Resources at 3:30 pm. today (Monday.)
That means it’s suit-and-tie day for Ted Spraker and Larry Van Daele. And Big Game Commercial Services Board appointee Adam Trombley is up, too.
At 3:30 pm Wednesday, Attorney General Jahna Lindemuth will update Senate Resources on how she’s doing on all those federal lawsuits she’s been dropping right and left.
On Friday AOGCC commissioners Hollis French and Dan Seamount are up for confirmation.
HOUSE OPERATING BUDGET: House Republicans, we are told, are offering over 100 amendments to the operating budget in House Finance to try to pare it down on the before it hits the House floor. Republicans were not allowed to offer them in the budget subcommittee so this is the first bite they’ll get of the apple. Will Rep. Paul Seaton rule them out of order?
JUNEAU SALES TAXES: Juneau dedicates part of its sales tax to different grant recipients, who compete for it annually. It would take a 23 percent tax to pay for all the requests if they were all funded, says Assembly Member Debbie White. In other words, a lot of those applicants are going to be disappointed.
SHORT-LISTED: We’re hearing that Joe Balash, chief of staff for Sen. Dan Sullivan, is on the list for a possible appointment in the Trump Administration as Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Lands and Minerals. That’s huge, but that’s not all:
Steve Wackowski, former campaign manager for Lisa Murkowski, might be in the running for a special assistant position.
Tara Sweeney, longtime boss of external affairs at ASRC, is being considered for Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs.
Drue Pearce, former Alaska Senate president, is on the list for the Federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. She used to be the Federal Pipeline Coordinator under GW Bush.
Chat Padgett, Rep. Don Young’s state director, may get tapped for an Agriculture Department post based in Alaska.
And then there’s are openings for EPA District 10 agency chief, the U.S. Attorney for Alaska and the U.S. Marshall. No word on prospects for those.
ASRC HOSTS GOVERNOR: While in Washington, D.C. for the National Governors Association, Gov. Bill Walker and others in his posse attended a reception hosted by ASRC. Spotted were Mrs. Donna Walker, Communications Director Grace Jang, Chief of Staff Scott Kendall, DNR Commissioner Andy Mack, Fairbanks Office Manager Melissa Stepovich, Acting Attorney General Jahna Lindemuth, and HSS Commissioner Valerie Davidson. So much for the travel ban.
North Slope Borough, ASRC, and the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission were all in the nation’s capital putting their wish lists on the desks of everyone who mattered.
Author Jeremy Carl suffers through a “selfie” photo with Must Read Alaska’s Suzanne Downing prior to speaking at Juneau’s Lincoln Day Dinner on Feb. 24, 2017.
Editor’s note: Readers have asked if Must Read Alaska would reprint the Lincoln Day Address by author Jeremy Carl, who is a fellow at the Hoover Institution (formally knowns as the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University and who writes regularly for the National Review. Mr. Carl gave us permission to print his speech, which he made to a sold-out event in Juneau on Feb. 24, 2017.
WHAT IN THE WORLD JUST HAPPENED?
Thanks so much for that warm welcome.
I’m not sure how a U.S. Senator [Dan Sullivan] wound up as the warmup act for me. It’s a bit like having Michael Jordan as the warmup act for a guy you once saw make a couple of nice baskets at a YMCA game. But nonetheless I’m happy to be here.
I am very aware that I am coming to you as an outsider in a state that for many very good reasons places a premium on the knowledge of locals. And so my goal for my remarks tonight is modest:
I want to ensure that Ethan Berkowitz remains the San Francisco area import to Alaska that you dislike most — and that I don’t supplant him by the end of my speech.
If I achieve that, then I’ll consider this talk a success
So let me begin by acknowledging some of our prominent locals who are with us tonight. First and foremost, Sen. Dan Sullivan. I enjoyed getting to spend time with him earlier.
I know Dan has a great reputation as a rising star in our national party, and he’s an outstanding senator for State of Alaska.. And thanks also to all of the Alaskans in the room for helping Dan defeat an incumbent Democratic senator, which is never an easy thing to do.
But before Sen. Sullivan gets a big head let me say that I had a chance to sit with his wife Julie at dinner, and I can confirm that, as he said to the Legislature today, he married up. So we have something in common.
I also wanted to recognize Senate President Pete Kelly from Fairbanks, who was described to me as “smart, principled, tough as nails, and a true leader.” Having had the chance to talk to him I certainly came away with that impression as well.
And I would like to thank all of the other members of the Alaska Legislature who came out this evening. several of whom I’ve had the privilege to meet and speak with earlier. You all have a great record here of supporting conservative, freedom-oriented governance, and it is greatly appreciated
I want to also acknowledge Tuckerman Babcock, the state [GOP] chairman who I enjoyed getting to know over the past couple of days. Thank you for all that you do to help the GOP be successful—I know our state party officials in California well and so I appreciate all the effort you have to do to make the party run.
And thanks to Juneau’s deputy mayor for his welcome, Jerry Nankervis. I understand you are coming straight from hockey reffing, so thanks for getting off the ice and making it here.
I’d like to thank Suzanne Downing from Must Read Alaska, which really is a must-read. Suzanne has been an excellent unofficial co-chair of my welcome committee.
Thanks so much to Ben Brown for the kind introduction and Capital City Republicans for inviting me to come to Juneau and the Republican women for putting on the dinner.
The last person instructed me not to mention her by name, so I’ll honor that request but I will say that her name rhymes with Paulette Simpson and she has been incredibly gracious in taking the lead setting up things for today.
I told Paulette that I do both political talks and more candid academic talks and I asked her whether I should be more political or more candid—and she said be candid. So blame her if there’s something you don’t like — I’ve been reliably informed there are no roads out of town so hopefully my survival skills are good.
If there’s anybody I haven’t flattered yet that I should have, my sincere apologies.
But seriously, I have to say I’ve done many speeches in many places over the years and I’ve never received warmer hospitality and in such unexpectedly great weather than I’ve received over the last couple of days.
I told the organizers that I woudn’t do this for say, the Delaware GOP, much as I’m sure they are great folks. I have five young kids at home and I travel selectively, but really love Alaska—I almost moved here. I’ve been privileged to travel around the state from as far south as Hyder to Homer to as far north as ANWR, and there is just no other place in America—if not on earth– like it. It has always stood for liberty and a natural beauty and resource richness unparalleled in the world. Alaska stands for freedom and the Alaska GOP is what keeps it that way.
When I think about the importance of groups such as the one gathered here this evening, I have an article in the current issue of National Review discussing a renowned conservative political philosopher Harry Jaffa in which I quote Jaffa.
The fate of the world, Jaffa said, depends on the United States, the fate of the United States depends on the conservative movement. And the fate of the conservative movement depends on the health and success of the Republican party.
And that’s a pretty good summary of why I’m here—and why I expect many of you are here as well. We need a strong Republican party if we want a strong America.
I originally titled my talk. “What in the world just happened? And what does it mean for the GOP’s Future? Reflections on the 2016 Election.”
The organizers wisely shortened that title to the more calm “Reflections on the 2016 Election” but my message is going to remain the same.
I’m going to talk about three things—first what we learned from the election itself. Second, what we’ve learned from the early days of the Trump administration. And third where the GOP and the country should go from here. Then, with the appropriate modesty of an outsider, a few thoughts on what this might mean for Alaska.
SO WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
That we’re lousy prognosticators
And that includes me. I think I got the dynamics of this election closer to correct than the vast majority other pundits, analysts and consultants. And I was still lousy. I wrote an entire memo to another GOP Presidential candidate in early September of 2015 more than a year before the election in which I said that regardless of media spin this would hinge on turning out white working class vote.
“The most important voters to win in the entire country are working class and middle class white voters in the Midwest and upper Midwest.”
[This was followed by a data modeling discussion of why, while the GOP needed to actively and enthusiastically pursue every demographic group, this particular election hinged on our ability to turn out white middle class and working class voters in the Midwest. Carl went on to note, “The voters who stayed home and didn’t vote for Romney, particularly in the upper Midwest, are just the sort we need to reach. The scenario and data outlined above flips Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa to give us a victory” And that proved a pretty accurate description.]
So in a fundamental sense– at the risk of gross immodesty, in contrast to most of the professional pundits and highly paid consultants, I had the correct GOP victory scenario nailed. And yet, if you’d given me 100 to 1 odds when he entered the race that Donald Trump would be our next president, I probably would have taken it. I knew he could appeal to the voters the GOP needed to win, but I thought that his other much-discussed liabilities would be too much to overcome. The election of Trump surprised all of the experts and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise.
Trump brought out a ton of Republican and other right leaning voters.
I think this is important and gets lost. Trump won almost one million more votes than any Republican presidential candidate in history. And that total doesn’t even include 731,000 votes for Evan McMullin and 4.5 Million for Gary Johnson and 1.2 Million write-ins, most of whom were also probably conservatives. Meanwhile, Democrats got lowest vote share in a two-party race since Dukakis in 1988 right after the Reagan revolution.
Mainstream media’s power has slipped in fundamental ways.
I’ve worked in the media so it gives me no joy to say this, but they were effectively unpaid agents of Hillary Clinton and Democrats—they were more Pravda than independent media. Yet they were not able to deliver victory for the Democrats. And I’m glad that the GOP is finally being more aggressive about calling to account the media’s fake news and fake narratives.
That GOP strength down ballot was incredible.
We hit a century-long high in terms of legislative seats and chambers won. GOP controls 67 partisan state legislative chambers—an all-time record with well over 4,100 of 7,383 seats. That is the most since 1920. There are 24 states with GOP complete control including governorship. Democrats controlled just six. Trump had coattails and GOP votes were dragged over the line. We have 52 seats in the Senate.
In Alaska the Democratic candidate for Senate took just 12 percent [in the primary], which must be a modern record for futility for a party whose candidate wasn’t mired in a sex scandal. Fourth place, at least where I come from, is a fringe party.
In the U.S. Senate overall, the GOP won 13 seats by more than 20 points. This was more than the 10 seats won by the Democrats by any margin.
We won 17 seats by 10 points. The GOP won 12 seats from senators facing their first re-election effort—a remarkable achievement
In 2018, the Democrats will be defending 24 of 33 seats up for election in the Senate. including 10 in states won by Trump. The GOP has only 9 seats up period, of which only two are at all vulnerable to the Democrats barring a stunning upset or scandal. Only one is in a state that Trump didn’t carry. Without jinxing ourselves it would not be much of a surprise if the GOP made substantial gains without losing a single Senate seat in 2017. While I don’t think either scenario is likely we are much more likely to have a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats than we are to have 49.
In the House, 253 seats (218 are needed for a majority) were won by either Trump or a Republican house candidate or both. 218 were won by both Trump and the House GOP candidate. All in all, It would take a fairly stunning reversal to not have unified GOP government over the next four years. As a famous statesman once said, We’re going to win so much that you’re going to get tired of winning.
Big Money is almost meaningless in presidential elections.
Trump was badly outspent. In a little-known staggering statistic, Jeb Bush raised as much money from major donors as Trump did. Liberals love to talk about campaign finance reform. But at the presidential level, good candidates beat big dollars all the time. And Hillary Clinton was a lousy candidate.
On the GOP side in particular it was an insurgent election.—it wasn’t just Trump. Just 15 percent of GOP votes in the presidential primary went to non-Tea Party or post-Tea Party Candidates. 95 percent of convention delegates were won by insurgents. And we had a lot of good candidates of an earlier vintage: Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Jeb Bush Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, MikeHuckabee . None got any traction at all. This was a change election, and a conservative insurgent one.
Trump or Cruz , the bête noirs of the party establishment, won all but two states. Kasich’s home state of Ohio and Minnesota narrowly won by Rubio.
Democrats’ leadership is mismatched with their party demographics still led by last generation.
The three Dem leaders in house will be almost 80 by the time this congress concludes top two both white. Three Dem Leaders in the Senate all white, The top two are white men—all senior citizens—yet they have an increasingly African-American and Hispanic Party Base that does not have a seat at the table right now. That is going to cause dissention in their coalition and you are already seeing it.
And that leads to perhaps the most surprising and least commented upon phenomenon of Election 2016:
Despite a full media propaganda campaign designed to stir up two minutes of hate against him, Trump actually performed better among Hispanics, Asians, and African-Amercans than Romney. If numbers from previous polling are accurate, probably far better among native-born members of those groups. While we need to do much better, even that arrow is pointed up.
For all of the “White Nationalist” and “Racist” hysteria created by the media around Trump, he was no better than Romney’s level among white voters (58-37). But decompose this and the story becomes very different. He did dramatically better with white non-college voters (+14 vs Romney) but Trump slipped a lot among white college voters losing 10 points with them versus Romney. There’s a huge opportunity for 2020 growth here if he proves more rational than scary media portrait. And considering the media is panting him as a cross between Hitler and Atilla the Hun that should simple bar to jump over.
Now let me move on to what we have learned from the earliest days of this administration, starting with the cabinet picks.
For whatever his flaws may be this most encouraging thing is that Trump is actually a leader. In filling out his administration, he is not just picking loyalists. Nikki Haley, Tillerson, My friend and Hoover colleague General Mattis, Zinke, Chao, Devos, Pompeo, Rick Perry Mulvaney. None of these were early passengers on the Trump train. Some never boarded it at all.
I think for the most part this very encouraging. One of the true hallmarks of a strong leader overcome pettiness and slights inherent to campaigning and pick the right people for the right roles.
He’s been willing to take the fight to the Democrats again and again. He’s not letting up. Do I wish he spent less time on Twitter? Absolutely. But what he’s done has gotten results.
And he’s kept his campaign promises to his voters even if our elites don’t like it: On immigration. On issues like the Supreme Court, assertions of Sovereignty at NATO, and on fundamental regulatory reform. From a policy perspective,, there’s been a lot to like. He’s not changing as president—he’s a tough deal-maker but he’s going to need some of his experienced hands at least on foreign affairs to help advise him and with Tillerson, John Kelly, Mattis, Joseph Dunford he is doing just that.
I think there are several possibilities where the party goes from here. I’m not endorsing one, just laying out various scenarios
We could become a less ideological and more practical party—Trump was certainly not seen as an ideological figure before this campaign. Political scientists Matt Grossman and David Hopkins have talked about asymmetric politics— The GOP fights for its values while Dems are a cynical coalition of interests.This approach would be painful for a lot of the true believers in conservative journalism and policy space—but it may lead to a more effective opposition.
A more overtly nationalist party, In 2016 Dems discovered identity politics cuts two ways. This is what Making America Great Again is all about.
Trump as a blip—he does not become a successful—is not re-elected and we go back to business as usual.
Trump serves as a figurehead to conventional GOP policy—we end up having a fairly conventional administration except for a few pet issues for Trump. This is possible, but it’s not what I’m seeing in the early days of this administration. Personnel is policy and the personnel of this administration look to be conservative and determined.
Trump as transformational President. The Dems have overplayed their hand; Trump runs roughshod over socialism and outdated regulation, proves to be a Reagan like-figure but more aggressive, decimating the opposition and ushering in a new GOP majority era while the Dems socialist identity politics is left of the ash heap of history.
Boy that would be great. I don’t think this is most likely scenario, but I also don’t exclude it.
The biggest thing we learned from this election cycle is that Donald Trump shouldn’t ever be underestimated. So hang on—going to be a wild ride.
Now next let’s talk about what we’ve seen from America since this election. If I may put in academic parlance … apologies if this is too technical for some of you:
The Left are acting like a bunch of whiny, pathetic, sore loser babies.
I think what we’ve seen since election of Trump is a lot of distraction—a mass of protests, crowds at town hall meetings and a non-stop full-court press by the left-wing media, Hollywood and DC insiders to make Republicans and Trump supporters “the other.” To isolate and shame them and him. They are making a lot of noise, but I’m not sure their strategy won’t backfire. The marchers tend to be unhinged and that doesn’t play well with swing voters.
It reminders me of what happened with Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin a few years back. Tens of thousands of protesters took over Wisconsin capitol for weeks screaming and shouting and holding signs that said in capital letters saying “This is what Democracy Looks like”
Then we actually had an election and Walker won by a bigger margin than before—and at that point we discovered “No THIS is what democracy looks like. “ The let are so used to winning the culture wars without serious pushback that they don’t know how to handle losing. We’re not crazy like they are but we can’t let crazy intimidate us.
And speaking of crazy, I should add that I’m truly surprised at how crazy the media has become. It’s a bit disturbing to hear the president call the media the enemy of the American people, but it’s even more disturbing that it’s increasingly true that the
Washington Post or New York Times today often read like the comment threads on Elizabeth Warren’s Facebook page. It’s not good for journalism or democracy.
In many ways I think the biggest threat to Trump is what political theorists refer to as the “Deep State.” This is the expanded administrative state, the ability of the permanent bureaucracy and allied forces among American elites to leak damaging information and to impede conservative policy choices through intentional slowdowns and obfuscation.
Deep state is at war with Trump, and Trump will have to be very careful—Needs to take on bureaucracy—and have fundamental civil service reform. DC voted 94 percent non-Trump and the surrounding suburbs 70+ percent non-Trump. The bureaucracy and its allies are definitely the sworn enemies of this administration.
That’s why I was encouraged when Steve Bannon at CPAC said, “Trump administration is in unending battle for ‘deconstruction of the administrative state’”
It’s encouraging that this administration understands the terrain on which the battle should be fought and exactly what the stakes are.
ABOUT ALASKA…
Now I’d like to offer a few thoughts on what this all means for Alaska.
I tread carefully here because even though I do follow politics closely in Alaska, I am hardly more knowledge about it than the people here.
Unfortunately, the craziness has come to Alaska. I just read in Must Read Alaska about some disturbing news from Homer — a city by the way, which voted decisively for President Trump
Nonetheless a resolution has been put before the Homer City Council, sponsored by several council members, effectively demanding that Trump and his supporters be condemned.
Here’s some sample text:
WHEREAS, The President now is following through on his promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants”
(WELL WE CANT HAVE A CONSERVATIVE PRESIDENT WHO FOLLOWS THROUGH ON HIS PROMISES TO UPHOLD US LAW CAN WE?)
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Homer calls on all its citizens to stand against intolerance and resist expressions of hate toward any members of the community
(EXCEPT TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS WHO REPRESENT A MAJORITY OF HOMER)
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of Homer unequivocally rejects expressions of fear and hate wherever they may exist
(EXCEPT FOR HATRED OF THE MAJORITY OF HOMERITES WHO SUPPORTED TRUMP)
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the city of Homer will not waver in its commitment to inclusion and to continuing to create a village safe for a diverse population.
(EXCEPT FOR POLITICAL DIVERSITY)
And it goes on like this for several pages.
This is San Francisco level political stupidity and the fact that leftists feel emboldened to offer these resolutions in communities that Trump carried shows just how unhinged and unconnected to reality they have become.
So outside the fever dreams of the Left what can we say about what Trump will actually do that affects Alaska?
This is a President that likes to build things. That may sound trivial but it’s really important. Deregulation not just a theory for Trump. He wants to put steel in the ground. That means pipelines—he wants to unlock domestic energy and natural resources—all of that is an opportunity for Alaska.
I would love to personally see triangulation—something where a small amount of revenue from new resources that we unlock would be used to develop national parks and perhaps roads to access them in Alaska and other areas—most of which have few to no facilities. Many of Alaska’s parks are under-resourced—even the popular ones. This could develop more tourism jobs while lowering tourist overload at already overcrowded sites. The tourism infrastructure at this state, particularly at some of the National Parks not reachable by road, could be dramatically improved.
If you have a sense of the true scale and grandeur of this place, as actual Alaskans do, the notion that a few hotels or roads or oil wells on a small portion of Alaska land would fundamentally spoil these is ludicrous. The scale of nature in this state is boundless and there is plenty of room to preserve Alaska’s natural beauty while responsibly developing its resources.
It’s going to mean a focus on blue collar workers and again, I think that is great for Alaska.
It’s going to mean a focus on federalism and as a state that arguably more than any other needs federalism. Because of its unique needs and circumstances, Alaska will benefit.
This president is focused on political and regulatory streamlining.
For the EPA, I think Pruitt has a lot of promise. Contrary to the media caricature, from what I can see this is not an ideologue—he’s a person who wants to refocus the EPA’s mission. But it’s about predictable regulation and a focus on clean air and clean water and removing a lot of the extra political agenda.
And I’d say much the same for the Department of Interior Under Ryan Zinke. And DOE under Rick Perry. The fact that we have elected officials, with their greater understanding of politics, in these roles, rather than just career bureaucrats, is generally a very good thing.
Nobody wants dirty air or dirty water or oil spills, least of all people who put up with the difficulties that exist to live in a spectacular place like this one. But environmental regulation is a question of scale, cost and balance. And I think this administration will have the right balance.
At the same time, we have to be realistic—the drop in oil prices makes bigger offshore plays less likely, so those expecting that Trump will usher in an overnight energy revolution may be disappointed.
Look, there are going to be a lot of distractions over the coming years. There are going to be a lot of whiny liberals screaming in the streets that Trump’s latest move, no matter what it is, is going to end the world. They are going to do everything they can to distract us from doing our jobs to make America stronger, safer, and more prosperous.
So in response to that, if you’ll indulge me, I’d like to close with one of my favorite passages of political writing. It’s from the British philosopher and statesman Edmund Burke, a great supporter of the American Revolution, an opponent of the more radical French revolution, and by many lights the founder of modern Anglo-American conservatism.
In Burke’s masterwork Reflections on the Revolution in France, he offered the following message to his correspondent and his words are wise counsel to Republicans and conservatives anywhere.
Quoting Burke:
“The vanity, restlessness, petulance, and spirit of intrigue of several petty cabals, who attempt to hide their total want of consequence in bustle and noise, and puffing, and mutual quotation of each other, makes you imagine that our contemptuous neglect of their abilities is a mark of general acquiescence in their opinions.
“No such thing, I assure you. Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field, that, of course, they are many in number, or that, after all, they are other than the little, shriveled, meager, hopping, though loud and troublesome, insects of the hour.”
I think we all would have loved to have had a press secretary like Edmund Burke? I’m waiting for Sean Spicer to start his next press conference that way.
The insects of the hour are out in full force today. They are in the media, at our universities, in Hollywood, and even in large parts of our business community. Their goal is to isolate conservatives, to shame them, and to make sure that we cannot be successful in our goals.
What we need to understand is that we represent those powerful yet silent important and numerous inhabitants of the field, The American people, not the few loud and obnoxious grasshoppers.
We need to focus on delivering on the conservative promises that the Republican Party has long stood for—lower taxes, less government, more freedom and a recommitment to American values.
The grasshoppers will always make loud and dissonant noises. To succeed, they need to convince us that they are the many and we are the few—but they remain shriveled and meager as ever.
Abraham Lincoln, whose memory we honor tonight, didn’t listen to the grasshoppers attempting to distract him during the trials of the Civil War. He kept his eyes on the prize—ended the scourge of slavery and ensured that our states would continue to be united.
He focused on the welfare of millions of Americans whom he bravely led—not the siren song of a few whining insects.
Ronald Reagan would do the same thing in 1980 when his opponents accused him of dangerous radicalism and called him every name in the book.
We need to follow their example — that of Burke of Reagan and Lincoln. If we can do that, we’re going to be very successful in the next four years, and we truly will make sure that America’s reality is as great as its promise always has been.
Thank You.
* * *
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President Trump signs the repeal of the Social Security Gun Ban, an Obama-era order. (White House photo).
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump signed a congressional resolution that axed what many Second Amendment advocates call President Obama’s “Social Security Gun Ban.”
The ban was eight years in the making in the Obama Administration, but after the terroristic mass shooting in San Bernardino, Calif. in December of 2015, Obama signed an executive order instructing the Social Security Administration to comb the files of Americans who receive disability payments. Those who were deemed mentally defective were reported to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, which would add them to the FBI list of people disallowed from gun ownership.
That’s not a club to which most Americans, even those who are mentally ill, want to belong.
The Obama rule was finalized by the Social Security Administration near the end of December, 2016 and would have taken effect at the end of this year. But by the end of February, Trump had shot it down with his pen.
The National Rifle Association didn’t care for the rule and fought it, as expected. Even the ultra-liberal American Civil Liberties Union couldn’t stomach the order, which applied to any number of disabilities — mental, emotional, or physical.
For example, you could have anxiety, anorexia, sleeping disorders, or any number of vaguely defined problems, and if someone was handling your finances for you and you were receiving Supplemental Security Income, you were deemed too dangerous to own a gun or ammunition — for protection, hunting, collection, investment or any other reason.
The only way to get your gun back was to prove to the government, at your own expense, that you weren’t crazy. Good luck with that, gun right advocates said.
Second Amendment defenders noted that Obama focused on guns instead of the radicalization of the Muslim husband and wife duo who killed 14 people and wounded 21 others in San Bernardino. Syed Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik opened fire at a holiday gathering of Farook’s co-workers on Dec. 2, 2015, massacring 14 and wounding 22 at a government office. The two then died in a shoot-out with police.
They were not mentally disabled Social Security recipients. They were radical anti-Americans.
But, in the words of President Obama’s former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that — it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.”
Obama took Emanuel’s advice. His Social Security Gun Ban put 75,000 Americans in the same class as others who cannot buy guns: felons, drug addicts, and illegal immigrants.
In Alaska, Democrat Rep. Geran Tarr has introduced similar legislation to remove weapons and ammunition from people if family members or law enforcement officers believe they are a threat to themselves or others.
HB 75 would let judges make the call and take guns away from people temporarily through a protective order. It is in House Judiciary, where it awaits a hearing. Tarr’s bill, at this writing, has no co-sponsors.
The memorial service for Barbara Andrews-Mee, longtime aide to Sen. Ted Stevens, is set for 4 pm, March 12 at Indian Lake Estates United Methodist Church, in Indian Lake Estates, Florida.
Her widowed husband Vince Mee said that he will spend the summer in Alaska and will likely have an Alaska memorial or celebration of Barbara’s life.
In lieu of flowers, Vince requested that people make a donation to an organization that supports military personnel or veterans.
Cards may be sent to his address: P.O. Box 7774, Indian Lake Estates, FL 33855.
