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Will Walker or Begich throw the knock-out punch?

Suzanne Downing
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AND OTHER INTRIGUES OF THE PRIMARY ELECTION SEASON

One of the more discussed writings last week came from Charles Wohlforth, a left-leaning columnist for the Anchorage Daily News (hat tip, Chuck).

Wohlforth revealed that private conversations are taking place between Alaska Democratic Party nominee Mark Begich and petition candidate Gov. Bill Walker.

Hollis French is the man trying to broker a deal.

French, a former state senator, was the winning lieutenant governor nominee for the Democrats in 2014, until his party leadership showed him the door and created the hybrid ticket with Walker on top, and Byron Mallott as lieutenant governor.

French, it appears, is negotiating on behalf of Begich, in spite of the fact that Walker finally landed him a good job at the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission as a reward for stepping down from his candidacy.

Hollis French

Wohlforth got his hands on A Proposal for Solving the Three-Way Race,perhaps written by French, perhaps collaborated on by others who are advocating the position: “For the love of God, no three-way race for governor, please.”

Wohlforth wrote that French crafted a deal, and Begich made Walker an offer.

Walker, so the story goes, said “No way, not dropping out.”

GAME OF CHICKEN CONTINUES

Sitting governors do not drop out of the race. They love being governor, especially in Alaska, where we have a strong governorship that wields buckets of power. It’s an honor and a chance to make changes that are important to them, and leave a legacy. They don’t just give up, and nor will Alaska’s 11th governor, Bill Walker. It is unreasonable to expect them to.

Neither do former U.S. senators, especially those with the last name of Begich. A guy like Mark Begich, who was Alaska’s 7th elected U.S. senator, is not going to throw in the towel and hand victory to a guy like Walker, who he considers a bumbling tangle of ineptitude.

Or will he?  Word is that Begich is worried about Walker’s advantage of incumbency and is afraid of performing poorly in the race. His traditional backers in Big Labor are not lining up behind him this time.

THE ULTIMATE POLL APPROACHES

But the big test comes on Aug. 21: As much as Hollis French proposes some well-timed polls and asks the weaker one to be a gentleman and drop out for the sake of Alaska, the ultimate poll for Begich starts with early voting today, Aug. 6. He could get about 40,000 votes by Aug. 21 from Democrats, nonpartisans, and undeclared. These are the votes that will propel him to November.

After the primary, he’ll show the Walker folks his math: “I’ve got 40,000 votes to start with. What do you have?” They’ll have until Sept. 5 to crowd each other out of the race before ballots are printed for November.

There are about 75,000 registered Democrats in the state and another 84,440 who register as nonpartisan, the latter of which have a strong tendency to vote Democrat.

Especially coveted are those nonpartisans, who vote in higher numbers than the registered undeclared voters.

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE VOTER

Let’s take a look at the regular Alaska voter, not the one who thinks about strategic machinations.

We can count on Democrats and nonpartisan voters choosing the Democrat ballot on Aug. 21.

At the top of that ballot, they”ll see a crowded race: Christopher Cumings, Alyse Galvin, Carol Hafner, and Demitri Shein for U.S. House, all running as Democrats. Voters will fill in an oval.

Then they’ll drop down to the next section: Governor. There, they will choose between Mark Begich, the only Democrat running since Walker dropped out and decided to run as a petition candidate, and Libertarian candidate Billy Toien.

Are they going to skip over voting for governor? Will they then skip over voting for Democrat Debra Call for lieutenant governor during the primary? There goes half the ballot, if they do.

Take a look at that ballot — will voters just not vote in two of the four races?

What Begich has to be concerned about is the drop off between those voting in the U.S. House race at the top of the page, and those voting for him for governor. If there’s a 10,000 vote drop off, those are voters who are sticking with Walker. They’ve figured out that by voting for Begich in the primary, they embolden him and strengthen his ticket for the General.

For both Walker and Begich, this primary is a defining moment.

Walker also has to be concerned about the psychology of the voter facing a primary ballot: The real excitement in this election is the governor’s race, and anyone who votes for Begich in the primary will be likely to vote for him again in November.

Walker’s campaign, unlike Begich’s, has to figure out how to convince people to not take part in that excitement, and not vote that part of the ballot, because it psychologically commits them for the General Election.

It’s an awkward task, but the best way to ensure Begich doesn’t get that psychologically valuable vote in August is for the governor to make the pitch (somehow) that Democrats shouldn’t vote at all, lest they make the mistake of casting a vote for Begich. Awkward. And not at all helpful for Democrats in other races.

Check out a sample ballot for District 20 Democrats above and you’ll see what will make Bill Walker a bit nervous: His name is missing again, just as it was in 2014, but this time, he doesn’t have to talk Byron Mallott into dropping down into the second spot. He has to talk Begich into spending more time with his family.

It makes the governor’s “Unity Ticket” of 2014 seem so simple.

National Geographic admits: Polar bear video went ‘too far’

Suzanne Downing
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0
National Geographic admits: Polar bear video went ‘too far’

IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE ‘CLIMATE CHANGE’ AGENDA

In December of 2017, National Geographic unveiled a moving video of a starving polar bear, and wrote: “This is what climate change looks like.” The background music was mournful and the dying bear was pitiful. Think of the extended death scene in Puccini’s opera, Madama Butterfly.

It stirred controversy. Some said the film crew should have aided the bear. Others decried modern humanity for condemning such a noble creature to this terrible fate. Other said that it was fake news, and that there was no way to know if this bear was a victim of climate change or just plain old.

In August of 2018, the magazine empire has admitted it went too far.

“While science has established that there is a strong connection between melting sea ice and polar bears dying off, there is no way to know for certain why this bear was on the verge of death,” the magazine wrote, and it updated the captioning on the video.

“Perhaps we made a mistake in not telling the full story—that we were looking for a picture that foretold the future and that we didn’t know what had happened to this particular polar bear,” wrote Cristina Mittermeier, a contributing photographer, speaker, and explorer for National Geographic.

Mittermeier is also an environmental advocate as the “co-founder, executive director, and vision lead” of SeaLegacy, a nonprofit organization working to protect the oceans, which contributed to the production.

 

Stand for Salmon quibbles about Stand for Alaska’s name

Suzanne Downing
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0
Stand for Salmon quibbles about Stand for Alaska’s name

SHADES OF LITIGATION TO COME FROM YES ON 1 ADVOCATES?

The “Stand for Salmon” advocacy group changed the name of its campaign to “Yes for Salmon” to match the goal of communicating to voters what the group wants them to do in November.

That goal is to get voters to pick “yes” on Ballot Measure No. 1, should it survive a court challenge.

Another group emerged to get voters to say “no.” That group is “Stand for Alaska – No on 1,” and it’s pushing hard to educate the public about the dangers of Ballot Measure 1.

Now, Stand for Salmon wants Stand for Alaska to change its name. It’s gone to the Alaska Public Offices Commission with a set of demands.

As a harbinger for lawsuits that would surely come with passage of Ballot Measure 1, Stand for Salmon has complained to APOC that the Stand For Alaska group has a name that is confusingly similar to Stand for Salmon.

Stand for Salmon says that the name Stand for Alaska, is just too ambiguous.

The group has asked for, and last week was denied, an expedited decision from APOC on the matter.

APOC wisely appears to be in no hurry to tell any group they cannot call themselves Stand for Alaska, when so many groups have names like “Alaska’s Future,” “Families for Alaska,” and other names that are just as vaguely aspirational.

Stand for Alaska responded to the complaint that “to the extent that Complainant sees to interfere with Respondent using Stand for Alaska as part of its name, Complainant’s request runs smack into SFA – Vote No on 1’s first amendment rights to the name of its choice, so long as it meets statutory requirements, which it clearly does. Complainant has no right to dictate Respondent’s choice of name.”

In other words Stand for Alaska could call itself “Salmon Lovers Need Houses Too” or “Puppies and Kittens Against Ballot Measure One.” It’s not up to Stand for Salmon to choose an opposing group’s name.

“We believe that, in light of SFA – Vote No on One’s actions taken to comply with the law, and with the length of time yet remaining until the election, Stand for Salmon’s request for expedited treatment is baseless and, frankly, reflects a bad faith attempt to use APOC as an electioneering ploy to salvage its faltering campaign,” wrote the Stand for Alaska – Vote No on 1 attorney, Thomas Amodio.

APOC spent 20 minutes on the matter and denied the expedited hearing.

WHAT IS BALLOT MEASURE 1?

Ballot Measure 1 is an attempt to block the development of industry or construction in any watershed that is related to anadromous fish habitat. That’s a lot of Alaska — and a lot of Alaskans are concerned by its language. From home builders to bridge builders, there is opposition to the measure’s stringent environmental language, and opposition is coming from the hardhat sector all the way up to the governor.

But who isn’t for salmon, clean water, and habitat? The war for the hearts and votes of Alaskans continues.

Read the Initiative that Stand for Salmon has proposed for the November ballot:

Ballot Measure

A ruling from the State Supreme Court is expected soon on whether the ballot measure is even legal. The ballot printing deadline for the General Election is Sept. 5, but if the Supreme Court waits too long, it may be difficult to resolve aspects of the ballot language that the court may carve out as unconstitutional.

Walker: Steel tariffs? Energy tariffs? No problem

Suzanne Downing
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0
Walker: Steel tariffs? Energy tariffs? No problem

SEEKS TO CALM CONCERNS ABOUT LNG PROJECT

Steel tariffs didn’t faze Alaska Gasline Development Corporation President Keith Meyer when they were announced by the Trump Administration this spring.

And energy tariffs proposed by the Chinese aren’t worrying Alaska’s governor, who this summer remains confident about the Alaska LNG project.

Gov. Bill Walker issued a brief statement on Friday about China’s tariffs:

“Alaska’s vast reserves of natural gas can satisfy market demand for nearly a century, and short-term trade tensions do not change this long-term value proposition,” Walker said.

“Alaska LNG would be the largest job-creating infrastructure project in the country, and would generate billions of dollars in revenue. My team and I will continue to work with the Trump administration to ensure that Chinese and U.S. officials strike a fair compromise so that Alaska’s natural gas reaches the market,” Walker reassured the public in his statement.

China’s threatened tariff against U.S. LNG is part of a raging trade war with the communist-run nation.

Walker did not revisit the overall feasibility of the project, the details of which the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation is still trying to nail down after the joint development agreements Walker signed with China last November.

According to the Alaska Journal of Commerce, Sinopec sent officials to Alaska to review plans, and then the company pulled out of the development phase. It is now only interested in the buying of natural gas, should the project come to fruition.

Meyer told the newspaper that Sinopec had expressed interest in being a major participant in construction of the 800-mile gasline, but after flying the route and studying it on the ground, decided the project was beyond its capability.

Few Alaskans even knew that Sinopec was planning to participate in building the gasline, since when the joint agreement was signed, Walker announced Sinopec as the buyer, not the builder. And, in public forums on the campaign trail, he has sought to downplay the role of Chinese entities in building and operating the line.

Regardless, Sinopec as builder is just one aspect of a less-than-transparent set of agreements that Walker has been trying to put together with China.

The Nov. 8 five-party joint development agreement included Alaska, AGDC, and Chinese entities Sinopec, Bank of China, and the China Investment Corporation.

In November, the governor explained that Sinopec would have the right to buy 75 percent of Alaska’s LNG, and the Bank of China and China Investment Group would finance 75 percent of the development.

“This agreement has all five necessary signatories—the buyer, the lender, the investor, the developer and the state,” Gov. Walker said in November. “This is a big project with big players and big benefits.”

STEEL TARIFFS A CONCERN – AT LEAST TO CONOCOPHILLIPS

While the tariff war with China could end before the Alaska gasline is built, tariffs on steel imports are perhaps more of an issue than the Governor’s Office and AGDC have acknowledged.

Al Hirshberg of ConocoPhillips said last month said that steel tariffs are turning into a significant expense item for the company, which spends $300 million a year on steel between its operations in Alaska and the Lower 48. That includes pipes, valves, and fittings, according to Petroleum News.

Hirschberg told analysts that hot-rolled steel prices in the U.S. are up 26 percent since the first of the year, although ConocoPhillips has been insulated somewhat due to its supply chain agreements. He expects the company’s cost increases to worsen next year,  Petroleum News reported.

WHAT IS THE ALASKA GASLINE?

AGDC, a State-owned entity, plans to build and operate a gas treatment plant near Prudhoe Bay; a 1.0-mile-long, 60-inch-diameter Prudhoe Bay Unit Gas Transmission Line; a 62.5-mile-long, 32-inch-diameter Point Thomson Unit Gas Transmission Line; a 806.6-mile-long, 42-inch-diameter natural gas pipeline from the gas treatment plant to the LNG terminal in Nikiski; and an LNG terminal with a 20 million ton per annum liquefaction capacity. There will be numerous facilities associated with the project, which would have an annual average 3.9 billion standard cubic feet per day peak capacity of natural gas.

The State of Alaska is now the sole owner of the project after BP, Exxon, and ConocoPhillips pulled out as developers, with the encouragement of Gov. Walker, who wanted the project to be state-owned so it could capture tax breaks from the federal government. He also wanted to move the project along at a faster pace than the partners were willing, although in their absence project resources have shrunk.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission will issue a draft environmental impact statement next March, followed by a final EIS in December 2019.

In the meantime, broader market forces such as competing, lower cost energy supplies in the Pacific Basin and the raging trade war between the U.S. and China continue to blow strong headwinds against the Alaska LNG project, happy talk from Gov. Walker notwithstanding.

Treadwell crushes Ketchikan straw poll, Dunleavy bests in Wasilla

Suzanne Downing
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3
Treadwell crushes Ketchikan straw poll, Dunleavy bests in Wasilla

KEVIN MEYER FOR LG GETS SOLID SUPPORT IN BOTH PLACES

Mead Treadwell, running for governor of Alaska as a Republican, won strong support in a straw poll conducted at the Blueberry Festival in Ketchikan on Saturday.

Treadwell got 25 votes to competitor Mike Dunleavy’s 10 votes. None of the other gubernatorial candidates running on the Republican ticket received votes.

In the lieutenant governor category, it was Kevin Meyer dominating the board, with Sharon Jackson winning votes as well, and no other candidate gaining support.

Both Treadwell and Meyer attended the Blueberry Festival, the biggest event of the year in Ketchikan.

Rep. Don Young swept the board at the straw poll, which was conducted by District 36 Republicans and the First City Republican Women’s Club.

While straw poll results are not scientific, they may represent a general view of how the races are shaping up in Ketchikan.

In 2016, Ketchikan was a stronghold for Donald Trump for president, and Don Young is especially strong in this Republican-leaning district. However, two years earlier, the First City voted only slightly more for Republican Sean Parnell than it did for Bill Walker, who ran as a petition candidate with Democrat Party endorsement.

Lieutenant Governor candidate Kevin Meyer, pleased with his straw poll results at the Ketchikan Blueberry Festival.

WASILLA STRAW POLL RESULTS

Last week at the candidate forum at the Greater Wasilla Chamber of Commerce, the straw poll conducted after the forum, which included Democrats, Libertarian, and petition candidates, had these results:

GOVERNOR

Mike Dunleavy 46%
Bill Walker 23%
Mead Treadwell 14%
Mark Begich 8%
Michael Sheldon 6%
Darin Colby 1%
William Toien 1%

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Kevin Meyer 31%
Edie Grunwald 26%
Byron Mallott 23%
Debra Call 7%

 

 

Slate of candidates set for Mat-Su elections

Suzanne Downing
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0
Slate of candidates set for Mat-Su elections

The Wasilla, Palmer, and Mat-Su Borough election is Oct. 2. Candidates are:

PALMER COUNCIL MEMBER (THREE-YEAR TERM)

  • Pete LaFrance
  • Richard W. Best
  • Julie Berberich

PALMER COUNCIL MEMBER (TWO-YEAR TERM)

  • Linda A. Combs

WASILLA COUNCIL SEAT A (THREE-YEAR TERM)

Stephen M. “Mike” Dryden

WASILLA COUNCIL SEAT B (TWO-YEAR TERM)

Timothy “Tim” Burney

MAT-SU BOROUGH ASSEMBLY CANDIDATES

MAYOR

  • Bruce Walden
  • Vern Halter, incumbent

ASSEMBLY SEAT 3

  • George McKee, incumbent

ASSEMBLY SEAT 6

  • Barb Doty
  • Jesse Sumner

ASSEMBLY SEAT 7 

  • Dan Dees
  • Tam Boeve
  • Walter Kloepfer

SCHOOL BOARD DISTRICT 1

  • Tom Bergery
  • Deborah Retherford

SCHOOL BOARD DISTRICT 4

  • Sarah Welton
  • Brittany Harvey

Labor Commissioner wants pro-union legislation

Suzanne Downing
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9
Labor Commissioner wants pro-union legislation

DID HER ESSAY PROMPT THIS WEEK’S ADMINISTRATIVE ORDER?

Heidi Drygas used her state position as the head of Labor and Workforce Development to rail against the recent Janus v AFSCME decision, which is a Supreme Court case that decided public employees cannot be forced or coerced to pay union dues.

Drygas wants pro-union legislation to fight back.

“Given the clear public policy benefits of unions, our elected leaders should enact legislation to support them and institute other policies that raise wages and improve economic security. We face a clear choice in Alaska: We can neglect workers’ rights and let our middle class suffer a slow death like we’ve seen in the Lower 48, or we can restore it by supporting unions and enacting policies that support working families. I know what side of history I want to be on,” she wrote.

None of what she has written in her essay applies to the very comfortable and secure lives that most public employees in Alaska lead, with a 37.5 hour work week and the best health care benefits on the planet.

Drygas is key to keeping State labor costs in check, but she’s advocating for raising the wages of public employees and making it harder to fire them for cause. She argues, we’ll “suffer a slow death” in Alaska.

Her strange essay is here.

Gov. Bill Walker may share Drygas’ opinions about empowering public employee unions, but the day after Drygas’ essay, he issued Administrative Order #296.

In it, he said that while unions have an important role, Alaskans have their right to privacy. In light of Janus vs. AFSCME, concerns have arisen that union organizers may seek to obtain State employees’ personal information and infringe on employees’ privacy, or that State entities may discourage or encourage union membership.

He reiterated that the State must remain neutral with respect to membership in an employee organization, and shall not  disclose, unless required by law, addresses, phone numbers, or other contact information for employees of the State of Alaska.

Further, he wrote, “No State entity shall (a) discourage or encourage an employee in joining, forming, or assisting an employee organization; (b) discourage or encourage an employee to resign or relinquish membership in an exclusive bargaining representative; or (c) discourage or encourage an employee to revoke authorization of the deduction of fees to an exclusive bargaining representative.”

Read Administrative Order #296 here.

Corrections has an ‘adopt an inmate’ program

Suzanne Downing
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8
Corrections has an ‘adopt an inmate’ program

A QUIETLY IMPLEMENTED PROGRAM ALLOWS PRISONERS OUT FOR A DAY

That guy next to you in line at the coffee shop?

He could be an inmate out of prison on a day pass.

The Department of Corrections has implemented a revised policy that allows qualified “super-volunteers” to check inmates out of prison for 12-hour excursions. It’s a policy that few Alaskans know about, but it’s been in place since December.

The day pass policy was signed by Department of Corrections Commissioner Dean Williams over a year ago, and quietly implemented in December.

Volunteers called Qualified Community Representatives can take prisoners of the same gender into the community for any number of reasons, subject to the superintendent’s approval.

Any volunteer who has been granted VIP status, or who has been approved by the prison superintendent, and who passes a DOC volunteer background check, may come onto prison grounds at just about any time of day or night and check out a prisoner with these conditions:

  • They may enter institutions outside of normal visitation hours, without direct supervision, and with flexible scheduling, as needed to provide “in-reach services to prisoners.”
  • They may access pre-determined areas of institutions without escort
  • They may meet with prisoners, individually and in groups, without direct supervision
  • They may carry and use institutional radios to communicate with staff and carry out in-reach duties and
  • Any other action required to carry out the VIP mission that is approved by the Superintendent.

Not every prisoner qualifies. They must be in minimum custody, and have no convictions for acts of violence for a period of three years, nor history of escape or attempted escape from custody, nor fleeing from a community residential centers for two years preceding the day pass. Other than that, it’s at the discretion of the prison superintendent.

DAY PASS POLICY 819.02

Rep. Cathy Tilton of District 12 first learned about the new policy from her constituents, who are expressing concern. Now, the policy is beginning to simmer on social media.

“This is a rising concern among my constituents. What’s even more concerning is it’s been implemented as a policy without the knowledge of the Legislature,” Tilton said.

Rep Cathy Tilton

Rep. Tilton wrote to the Department of Corrections about her concerns, and what she heard back was shocking:

The DOC won’t tell the public who is out on a day pass, because it wants to protect inmates’ safety and the public’s safety. If the information were to be made public, DOC says, it could create an opportunity for bringing contraband back inside the institution.

The victims of the inmate’s crimes might not know that the inmate is out on a pass. The victim notification depends upon whether the department was able to reach the victim. But there’s no mandatory language that the victim has a right to weigh in on the day pass approval.

According to an analysis by Amy Demboski, host of the Amy Demboski Show on KVNT, the new policy updates a policy that was put in place in December, and it loosens the rules even further:

  • The policy removes the requirement that the inmate must have no C-level disciplinary finding in the previous 12 months.
  • It lowers the threshold for who can check inmates out on a day pass.
  • The  policy states an inmate has to be free from convictions or disciplinary actions for acts of violence for the past three years. The previous threshold was five years.
  • The policy deletes a requirement that there is no C-level or higher disciplinary finding for the past 12 months.
  • The most significant change from the first Day Pass Policy to the current one is the removal of victim notification. The new policy doesn’t make it mandatory, but only signifies that an attempt must be made to notify the victim.
  • There can be no history of escapes for a period of three years prior to the day pass. This also removes reference to having no history of disciplinary findings for three years.

Listen to the Amy Demboski show on KVNT for discussion of the changes to the day pass program on Friday, Aug. 3, 2018, 4-6 pm.

Democrat mystified: His party left him off the list of candidates

Suzanne Downing
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2
Democrat mystified: His party left him off the list of candidates

DEMOCRATS’ LIST OF CANDIDATES NOW FULL OF NON-DEMOCRATS

Dustin Darden, who has run for several offices in recent years, can’t figure out why the Alaska Democratic Party has left him off its website list of official candidates.

From all accounts, Darden is just another Democrat with a passion to serve.

The party web site lists “undeclared” candidate Alyse Galvin, who is running against Republican Don Young, but not as a Democrat. She left her party behind to be not visibly aligned with it, but is still running as its chosen candidate. Her campaign war chest reflects that support, with much of her money coming through the ActBlue fundraising site, which is reserved for Democrats. She lists support from prominent Democrats, such as a $1,000 contribution from Mark Begich.

The Alaska Democrats have also included other “nonpartisan” and undeclared candidates, such as Sam Cason, running for State Senate District K, Stephanie Jeffers, undeclared with a party, running in District 12, and Danyelle Kimp, a nonpartisan running for District 13. The list goes on — the party is promoting undeclareds and nonpartisans.

But no Darden, who is running against Jason Grenn for District 22? No Sen. Lyman Hoffman, who is running for his seat in Bethel, District S?

Darden took umbrage.

“I’m union made and was left out of the Alaska Democratic Party’s website candidate list with no reason,” he said this morning. “Please someone contact the Democratic leadership and ask I get equal rights as a registered Democrat.  My father and mother put food on the table with hard work supported by organized labor as a school nurse with the AEA and as a Carpenter and IBEW member. I followed in my father’s footsteps paying dues to both unions to this very day also working for the municipality of Anchorage as a maintenance worker. I would appreciate your vote in the upcoming election.”

Darden’s opponents include a former Republican who registered as a nonpartisan and ran with the help of the Alaska Democrats, just like Gov. Bill Walker, receiving political action committee support from the major unions in Alaska.

Grenn, who now holds that District 22 seat, doesn’t appear on the Democrats’ web site, but that’s likely by design: District 22 is a right-leaning district, with 66 percent registered Republican, 34 percent registered Democrat, and the rest of the undeclareds and nonpartisans splitting down those same percentage lines.

Donald Trump won this district in 2016. It’s not an easy district to win for an admitted Democrat.

On the Republican side, Liz Vazquez and Sara Rasmussen are in a primary contest and one of them will face a Democrat and the incumbent in the fall.

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