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How Ballot Measure 1 could sink Alaska’s economy

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THE ‘CONCHO RESOURCES EFFECT

On Monday, ConocoPhillips announced the purchase of Concho Resources, an oil company based in Midland, Texas, with a presence in the Permian Basin.

The response from Alaskans to that news should be: “Uh-oh.”

An all-stock transaction (no cash was required), what makes the Concho acquisition so important to Alaskans?

It’s a shale production company that moves ConocoPhillips, the largest oil producer in Alaska, into position as a much bigger player in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where it costs less than $30 a barrel to supply oil to market.

Alaska’s oil production costs over $38 a barrel to supply.

Concho’s revenue last year was $4.592 billion, and it has over 1,400 employees.

To compare, ConocoPhillips has 1,200 employees in Alaska.

Alaska’s oil fields are competing more than ever with the rest of the United States, where production costs, driven down by innovation, are making Alaska oil plays less attractive.

This also makes Ballot Measure 1 a huge gamble for Alaska. Driving up oil taxes would deepen the state’s economic woes at a time when the economy is already on its knees. It jeopardizes existing and future jobs, new projects and State revenue, economists say.

While some Alaskans think that higher taxes will “stick it to the big oil companies,” the purchase of Concho Resources shows that Alaskans would suffer if oil companies are taxed out of production here.

ConocoPhillips, Hilcorp, and Exxon have more choices than ever around the world, and Alaska has, as a result of innovation and tax structures here and elsewhere, become a smaller oil province with unpredictable tax regime in the resource economy.

If the oil companies won’t be hurt by higher Alaska taxes, who will be? Those who have jobs that are in any manner tied to resources: Small businesses owned by lifelong Alaskans, retailers, pilots, plumbers, landscapers, and restaurant workers.

Also hurt is the State’s bank account. ConocoPhillips paid more than $1 billion in taxes and royalties to the state in 2019. The state could jack up taxes to the detriment of oil production.

In response to soft oil prices, ConocoPhillips announced $400 million in cuts to spending in Alaska in 2020, and by April the company the company told Doyon Drilling that it would put its North Slope drilling rig fleet into hibernation indefinitely. Then it went and made a big stock trade deal for Concho.

All taxes have implications and change the behavior of taxpayers. Ballot Measure 1 may have already scared companies from investing in what is an increasingly expensive place to operate.

According to IHS, an oil analyst company owned by Daniel Yergin, the “Fair Share Act ballot initiative is introduced at a time when the oil industry faces twin crisesโ€”the COVID-19 and the oil price crash. While the measure is likely to have a devastating impact to oil and gas investment in the state in the current low oil price environment, the measure is not sustainable even under a long-term base case scenario of $60/bbl.”

Alaskaโ€™sย current fiscal system is one of the least competitive ones within US and international peer groups in terms of dollars per barrel, for investors, the report continues. “A combination of relatively higher unit costs needed to bring Alaskan North Slope crude oil on stream contribute to lower project profitability compared with Lower 48 and international jurisdictions. Theย provisions of the Fair Share Act further deteriorate Alaskaโ€™s competitive position. The ballot initiative is expected to affect 84% of the current production the state.”

Deeper dive: Readers may download the entire report on the impacts of Ballot Measure 1 at this link:

With Sullivan in DC, Alaska can be first again

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By KELLY TSHIBAKA

I was born and raised in Alaska, believing this was an exceptional state that provides unlimited opportunity. Alaska changed the course of my familyโ€™s destiny. My parents went from living homeless in a tent to seeing me graduate from Harvard Law School.

Alaska is first in our hearts, but it repeatedly has finished near last in the nation with respect to crime, education, budget, and the economy. If my parents were homeless in Alaska today, I would be less likely to grow up in affordable housing or learn to read, much less attend a prestigious law school. 

It is time for Alaska to be first again. That is why I support Dan Sullivan for the U.S. Senate.

Sullivan is bolstering our economy by opening up ANWR for oil and gas development, overturning six decades of restrictions. He also has helped reduce regulations, fought for access to federal lands, and secured about $1.6 billion in funding for military construction across Alaska.

When the COVID pandemic hit us, Senator Sullivan was instrumental in securingย billions of dollars of coronavirus relief for Alaskan families, small businesses, Native communities, and front-line healthcare workers.

Senator Sullivan is committed to our safety. He has helped secure $50 Million for public safety in rural Alaska. He has also playedย a key role in ensuring the investment of $2 trillion to rebuild the strength and power of our U.S. military, which was decimated by the Obamaย administration.

As the daughter of a long line of military service members, that matters to me, and I know it matters to Alaskans, too. Senator Sullivan is the only member of Congress who continues to be an active service member. He understands what is at stake if Biden wins and tries to reimplement the 25% cut to our military that occurred when he was VP during the Obama administration.

Senator Sullivan has confirmed over 200 judges who believe their role is to interpret the law, not legislate from the bench. Alaska has seen an appalling streak of lawless court rulings lately; we know it is critical we have a Senator who is committed to appointing judges who are dedicated to the rule of law.

Finally, Senator Sullivan understands Alaskans and will continue to serve us well in D.C. He may not have been born here, but he got here as fast as he could! Like many of our military service members, when he was stationed in Alaska 23 years ago, he fell in love with the state we love. He then spent his career as a dedicated public servant, serving Alaskans.

Whether continuing to serve in the armed forces, which he still does today, serving as Commissioner of the Department of Natural Resources, or serving as Attorney General, Senator Sullivan has demonstrated his commitment to serving all Alaskans, and he is here to stay. 

Senator Sullivan will fight for us on Capitol Hill. He will stand firm for all Alaskans and he will help Alaska rise again. 

For every Alaskan family to have the same opportunities my family had, and so many other families need and deserve, we need to send Senator Sullivan back to D.C.

The views expressed here are the writerโ€™s in her personal capacity and do not reflect her role as the Commissioner of the Department of Administration.

Amy Coney Barrett should be confirmed by Senate

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By SEN. MIA COSTELLO

As the national spotlight shines on Amy Coney Barrett during her traverse to the United States Supreme Court, amid protests in DC and calls that her nomination be stalled, hard-working American families are getting to know her a little bit better.

One fact that has come out is her commitment to her family, faith and other people. Weโ€™ve learned, too, that she and her husband responded to natural disasters far from home by opening their home and adopting two orphaned children.

There is no way to spin this: At its core, the decision to adopt is a decision to put someone elseโ€™s needs ahead of your own. The Barretts could have continued in their comfortable life as most of us do โ€“ for whom the plight of people in a distant country may mean nothing more than a token donation online.

When the tragedies in Haiti made news, and the world responded with aid and donations, the Barretts went further than most. They stepped in to personally work to give a new life to someone who had lost everything. And then, when tragedy struck Haiti again, they again responded by opening their home to another orphan.

I, too, was adopted and know that it is impossible to overstate the impact this has on a personโ€™s life. The Barrettโ€™s commitment to adopting two children, in addition to raising a special needs child of their own and their other children, should be celebrated, not condemned. 

Like the Barretts, my parents were Catholic, and before I knew what adoption was, they told me I was special, even though I had been given up by my natural mother. It took me until I was a parent myself before I really started to understand just what parenting meant and to raise anotherโ€™s child is a labor of love. Itโ€™s that same type of selflessness that Amy Coney Barrett and her husband are demonstrating plainly for all Americans to see. 

Barrett’s qualifications for the job are obvious and unquestioned. Her story is inspiring, much like the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg whose seat she would fill. Her legal acumen, personal character, fairness, and intellect are universally acclaimed by those who know her: Notre Dame Law School students; fellow Notre Dame Law School faculty; and law clerks with whom she served at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Well-known liberal legal scholar Noah Feldman, with whom she served as a law clerk in the late 1990s,โ€ I know her to be a brilliant and conscientious lawyer who will analyze and decide cases in good faith, applying the jurisprudential principles to which she is committed. Those are the basic criteria for being a good justice. Barrett meets and exceeds them.โ€

Yet during the confirmation hearings Senator and vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris similarly tried to suggest that Judge Barrettโ€™s strengths are in some way weaknesses. She insinuated that Judge Barrett was somehow insensitive to the challenges facing ordinary individuals. But one look at her family makes clear that Barrett sees the suffering of individuals as something she has a personal responsibility to help alleviate. Judge Barrettโ€™s strength of character is clear โ€“ as are Sen. Harrisโ€™s transparent attempts at character assassination for craven political purposes.

Americans saw firsthand that Amy Coney Barrettโ€™s demeanor and poise are exceptional, her temperament is unflappable, and her empathy is unmatched. These are attributes that should be celebrated, not attacked. But in a sure sign of desperation and debasement, attack these qualities is exactly what some of her detractors have attempted to do.

In nominating Amy Coney Barrett, President Trump has made a sterling choice. No one knows for sure how a justice will perform on the court โ€“ but we can already see that she is a jurist whose judgment, priorities, and empathy are exemplary.

I realize that for some senators the decision to confirm is a complicated one, but I encourage the Senate to confirm Amy Coney Barrett and for Alaskans to let your voice be heard on this important imminent vote.

Sen. Mia Costello represents Senate Seat K, Anchorage.

Oops: Anti-Trumper Jeffrey Toobin whips out his Zoom at the wrong moment

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One of the most acerbic and harsh critics of President Donald Trump has been sidelined by his own penis.

Jeffrey Toobin, a lawyer, blogger, author, and legal analyst forย CNNย andย The New Yorker, has been removed from his post as chief Trump critic for the left-stream media after he whipped out his penis and masturbated during a Zoom call, thinking he was off-camera.

The New Yorker said he was suspended after, on a joint video call with WYNC radio, Toobin switched to another call that was a phone-sex appointment, and masturbated; the camera was still on with the first call.

Toobin is the author True Crimes and Misdemeanors: The Investigation of Donald Trump, a critique of Trump’s first years in office.

He is an anti-Trumper who is a leading influencer on social media.

Toobin said in a statement on Monday: โ€œI made an embarrassingly stupid mistake, believing I was off-camera. I apologize to my wife, family, friends and co-workers. I thought I had muted the Zoom video. I thought no one on the Zoom call could see me.โ€ย But he never addressed why he was on a sexting call on the other line in the middle of a business meeting.

Charter says special election ‘shall’ be held after 90 days; will Assembly violate law?

The Anchorage Municipal Charter calls for a special election to be held 90 days after the mayor’s seat becomes vacant. An Assembly work session on Thursday will lead to a vote next Tuesday on whether that election will occur.

“A vacancy in the office of mayor shall be filled at a regular or special election held not less than 90 days from the time the vacancy occurs,” the Charter reads.

With Mayor Ethan Berkowitz resigning effective Oct. 23, that means after Jan. 21, Anchorage residents should be allowed to vote on a temporary mayor, one who will serve until July 1, when the mayor-elect from the regularly scheduled April 6 election takes office.

It’s not that simple, of course, but if there is no special election, Acting Mayor Austin Quinn-Davidson, who was elected to her Assembly seat in District 3, Seat E with 7,440 votes, could rule over the city for eight months.

That’s 7,440 votes from an election that saw a total of one-third of voters — 71,382 Anchorage voters — casting their ballots.

Just 10.4 percent of the voters cast a ballot for Quinn-Davidson in the 2020 election, and yet, she will be their mayor.

As the Associated Press put it, “Anchorage, Alaska chooses 1st woman, openly gay acting mayor.”

Not exactly, of course. Voters did not choose Quinn-Davidson to be mayor. A fraction of them chose her to be their district representative.

Getting an election done before April is an aggressive schedule made more complicated by the mail-in election that Anchorage has adopted after the Anchorage Assembly approved an all-mail-in method, starting with the 2017 municipal election. Mail-in elections are more time-consuming and labor intensive.

They cost more, too. A special election could cost the taxpayers more than $300,000.

The Assembly has no time to lose to give the Municipal Clerk the time she needs to roll out a special election. But as much as it seems to be clear in the Municipal Charter, here’s what the Municipal Attorney Kate Vogel has to say, in her memo to the Assembly:

“The Anchorage Municipal Charter requires the Assembly to fill the vacancy in one of three ways: (1) through a special election to be held on or after Thursday, January 21, 2021 to elect a new mayor to serve until June 30, 2021; (2) through a regular election to be held on April 6, 2021 to elect the next mayor who would take office on July 1, 2021, similar to past practice; or (3) through the regular election to be held on April 6, 2021 but seating the successor at some earlier date to be provided in Code. (This requires a simple Code amendment, which should be adopted soon if this option is desired.) The Chair of the Assembly will serve as โ€œActing Mayorโ€ in the interim, and return to the assembly as chair once the successor mayor has taken office. Performing as acting mayor does not create a vacancy in the assembly chairโ€™s elected seat,” Vogel wrote.

In a normal election, the Anchorage Division of Elections mails out ballots three weeks prior to the election deadline day. Voters must have their ballots in the mail or in secure drop boxes by that day — this coming year that day is April 6.

If a special election is held after Jan. 21, the Municipality would have to mail ballots in early January, and that means the ballots would need to be printed in late December.

Backing up the calendar, it means the application process for candidates would need to open and close in December — it’s a two-week filing period — and that also requires public notification in the newspaper of record, which would need to happen close to the application period. December would be a busy time for the Municipal Clerk’s office.

City Attorney Kate Vogel has now given the Assembly wiggle room by saying that the Muni “can” rather than “shall” have an election. It’s the Assembly’s choice, she said in her memo to the members.

Finally, the provision states that the vacancy can be ๏ฌlled at either a regular or a special election, Vogel wrote.

In other words, according to attorney Vogel, the Assembly can do whatever it wants, in spite of what the charter says.

If incoming acting mayor Austin Quinn-Davidson, who is currently the subject of a recall, gets her way, she will be acting mayor for more than 17 percent of the elected term of office for now-disgraced Mayor Ethan Berkowitz.

Adding to the confusion is that the filing packets for candidates for the April election will be posted on the Muni website on or around Dec. 1, 2020, giving them 45 full days to get their application filed. For the regular election, filing for office opens Jan. 15 and closes on Jan. 29, right on top of the special election window.

The Assembly is on a very tight timeframe for getting a special election done, but is showing no sense of urgency. Will the Assembly follow the law or find a way to circumvent it?

Tsunami warning after 7.4 in Aleutian Islands

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A tsunami warning has been issued for the Aleutian Islands after an earthquake with a 7.5 magnitude was centered about 67 miles southeast of Sand Point at 12:54 pm.

The nearest communities are:

  • 67 miles SE of Sand Point
  • 97 miles S of Perryville
  • 101 miles SE of Mt. Dana
  • 103 miles S of Mt. Kupreanof
  • 110 miles SE of Pavlof Volcano
  • 111 miles SE of Pavlof Sister
  • 114 miles SE of Emmons Lake
  • 114 miles E of King Cove

Residents of the Kenai Peninsula received the warning in their smart phones just after 1 pm.

The warning advised of severe building damage possible and to move to higher ground due to the wave. Sand Point is about 39 feet above sea level and has a population of about 1,130. The wave is estimated to arrive in Sand Point at 1:55 pm and Cold Bay at 2:45 pm. It is estimated to reach Kodiak at 2:50 pm.

Yeeeah! Hodgetwins endorse Josh Revak for Senate Seat M

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The Hodgetwins have ensorsed Sen. Josh Revak, for Senate Seat M, Anchorage.

The twins are a popular American stand-up comedy and savvy political commentary duo who started out as fitness promoters.

They are Kevin and Keith Hodge, who launched their fame on YouTube, where they have over 1 million subscribers. The twins are also a social media sensation on other platforms, with 724,000 followers on Twitter and 2 million followers on Instagram. On Facebook, over 3.6 million accounts follow them. In 2016 they branched out to live stand-up comedy shows.

“He even has that silky smooth baby face skin,” one of the twins say. We’re not sure which one — they are identical twins.

“The Hodge Twins are fresh faces of a conservative youth base of millennials and it is refreshing to see folks that speak the language of young conservatives. I’m a fan myself and am honored by their endorsement,” Revak told Must Read Alaska.

Yeeeah!

Alaska Day – an alternative history of a unique holiday

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WHAT IF THE RUSSIANS HAD SOLD IT TO CANADA?

By MURRAY WALSH

It is good to have an Alaska Day.ย There are lots of ways to contemplate the origins of our state and if you dabble in a brand of adventure fiction called alternative history, some interesting possibilities arise.ย Letโ€™s look at one of them.

One of the most expected questions, when young people are learning about Alaska for the first time, is โ€œwhy didnโ€™t Russia sell it to the British?โ€ย Iโ€™ll bet a few adults ask too.ย The obvious answer is that the Russians and the Brits had just recently (1853-1856) fought the Crimean War.ย Russia is generally considered to have lost that war and they were still plenty mad about it at the time of the 1867 Alaska purchase agreement.ย ย 

The Russians really needed the money, too. A million lives were lost in the 30-month long Crimean War and it was regarded as “notoriously incompetent international butchery.”[1]ย ย I could go on about that conflict and what it meant for European history for the rest of the century, but what if Russia had not been so desperate for the money?

A couple of other ideas arise.ย One possibility is that Canada, still under British control (Canada did not achieve full independence until 1982) could have invaded Alaska with the Queenโ€™s blessing.ย ย I am a little surprised, in fact, that Britain didnโ€™t goad Canada into giving it a try while the Crimean War was still raging, as a way to divide Russiaโ€™s military attention.ย It would be interesting to see if any such prodding did happen and the Canadians were just too damn polite to conquer a place that arguably should belong to them.

Itโ€™s not like Canada didnโ€™t know about the existence of Alaska.ย For centuries there was contact, trade, and yes, conflict, between tribes of Alaska Natives and โ€œbandsโ€ of aboriginals in what is now the Yukon and British Columbia.ย ย ย In the mid-1800s, the settlement that would become Vancouver, B.C. existed and the area blossomed when 25,000 gold miners arrived to work the banks of the Fraser River in 1858.

Canada could have raised an army sufficient to the task.ย Wikipedia tells us that there were about 700 Russians stationed in Alaska to carry out the fur and fish trade.ย They would not have been well armed or trained for warfare.ย ย 

Wikipedia also tells us that the population of Canada in 1867 was 3,000,000.ย ย ย Surely it would not have been too hard to raise just a couple of battalions of seasoned hunters and outdoorsmen to do the job.ย ย In fact, according Wikipedia, the Russians feared such an invasion:

โ€œGrand Duke Konstantin, a younger brother of the Tsar, began to press for the handover of Russian America to the United States in 1857. In a memorandum to Foreign Ministerย Alexander Gorchakovย he stated that โ€˜we must not deceive ourselves and must foresee that the United States, aiming constantly to round out their possessions and desiring to dominate undividedly the whole of North America will take the afore-mentioned colonies from us and we shall not be able to regain them.โ€™โ€

So, the Russians thought the USA might just snatch up Alaska anyway.ย In 1857, the Russians would have known about American capacity for war and apparent willingness to fight on the southern side of the continent.ย ย The two recent unpleasant interactions with Britain would have still be fresh in the national memory.ย ย 

I will leave it to the MRAK military writing staff to speculate just how Canada would probably have done it and jump to the present day to think about what it could mean down the years.ย Iโ€™ll bet a Canadian Alaska province would not look all that different from where we are today.ย There would be a greater interest in hockey, more insufferable-to-watch soccer on TV, and the Alaska Highway (then called the Al-Can) would still have had to be built.

I donโ€™t think the making and drinking of beer would be any different and Iโ€™d like to think that relations between Natives and non-Natives would be about the same.ย The names of political positions and institutions would be more confusing but the aspirations for fair dealing would be the same.ย ย 

One big difference would be the Canadian national health care system.ย I donโ€™t think we would like that very much.ย I also donโ€™t think we would like our fisheries to be managed almost entirely the federal government.ย 

Overall, though, the USA and Canada share so much descended-from-England culture, mores, and language, that the separation of Alaska from Russia by Canada would have resulted pretty much in what we see today.ย ย ย But the biggest difference, in terms of historic remembrance, is that we would be celebrating Alaska Day asย Independence Dayย instead of Real Estate Transaction Day.


[1]ย Troubetzkoy, Alexis S.ย (2006). A Brief History of the Crimean War.

Murray Walsh is part of the extended MRAK writing staff in Juneau.

Did Alaska Airlines decide the COVID pandemic is over in December?

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Alaska Airlines is opening up all of its middle seats after the election. But not right away.

Dec. 1 is when middle seats begin showing up as available for booking. Until then, all middle seats, which are generally the least desirable on an airplane, have an x through them on the seating charts for flights across the airline’s routes.

Elections across the country are certified by Nov. 30 in most states, which is when the outcome is generally known. Electors meet and vote Dec. 14, and barring “faithless electors” who do not vote according to the wishes of the majority of their state, that seals the election.

Earlier this year, Alaska and other airlines began blocking the middle seats, although at times they used them to accommodate passengers bumped from canceled flights.

There is no particular science to support the return to full flights, since a fall surge is well underway for the virus that originated in China.

The U.S. surpassed 8 million coronavirus cases on Friday, according to the ย Johns Hopkins University COVID data page. Over the past week, China virus infections have surged by 17 percent, with cases on the uptick in 38 states and Washington, D.C.