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Anchorage Back the Blue rally draws hundreds

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At least 200 people joined together at the east side of the Midtown Mall and held a three-hour rally to support police officers. The rally also drew the approval of hundreds of drivers, who honked their horns in approval and waved as they passed by on the New Seward Highway.

Organized by a loosely knit grassroots network that thrives on Facebook, the pro-law enforcement group was generally upbeat. Attending the rally were Republican candidate for House District 28 James Kaufman and Republican Sen. Mike Shower of Seat E, Wasilla

Also along the block were anti-police Black Lives Matter protesters, about a dozen strong. They chanted “No Justice No Peace” and waved signs, including “Fuck the Police.”

A few times during the dueling rallies there were words exchanged between the groups, such as when one Black Lives Matter squadron leader chanted repeatedly “I can’t breathe!”

“Take off your mask!” the Back the Blue crowd shouted back, helpfully.

The slim road to victory in Republican primary races

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SOME OF THESE RACES MAY BE GOING TO A RECOUNT

Several races in the 2020 Primary Election are coming down to what the absentee voters decided, and if they mailed in their ballots. Ballots had to be postmarked by Aug. 18, and are trickling into the Division of Elections. the count will begin Aug. 25.

Senate Seat B

Sen. John Coghill, who has held office since 2009, was challenged by Robert Myers for the chance to get to the November ballot. As of now, Myers is ahead with a 126 vote lead over Coghill, 1,4471,321.

In Senate Seat B, there were 307 absentee votes from District 3 that were received but yet to be counted. In District 4, 670 Republican absentee ballots have come in. That’s a total of 977 absentee votes that could be marked for Coghill or Myers.

Taking a look at the districts in Senate Seat B, Coghill and Myers split the early vote in District 3, 24-24. In District 4, the early vote split 50-50. It’s close.

Takeaway: If the absentee votes break the same way as the early votes and the Election Day votes, Myers will win Senate Seat. B.

Senate Seat L

Sen. Natasha von Imhof is trailing Stephen Duplantis by 85 votes, 1,351 to 1,266.

There are 504 possible absentee votes in District 23, and 1,090 absentee votes in District 24.

As for early votes in District 23, they broke toward Duplantis, 33-17. Duplantis received 64 percent of the vote in this district.

In District 24, they broke toward von Imhof, 56-48, who received 53 percent of the votes in this district.

Takeaway: It’s a safer bet that von Imhof will climb out of the hole she’s in due to the 1,090 votes still to be counted in the district where she was strongest, and District 23 may not have enough Duplantis votes for him to overcome those D-24 votes.

Senate Seat P

Sen. Gary Stevens is trailing behind challenger John Cox for this Kodiak Borough district that also stretches up to Homer.

In the District 31 portion of the Senate seat, Cox beat Stevens 1,144 to 709. There are 746 absentee ballots possible for that district.

In the District 32 (Kodiak) side of the Senate seat, Cox lost to Stevens 259 to 625. and there are only 320 ballots to count.

There are no early votes tallied yet for this race.

Takeaway: John Cox has a very good chance of retaining his lead over Stevens. Neither of the candidates pursued the absentee ballots with any effort.

House District 2

Rep. Steve Thompson is ahead of challenger Dave Selle by 13 votes. There are 210 possible Republican absentee ballots already turned in and 348 that have not yet been received by Aug. 18. In the early vote, Selle carried the day 18-15, so if that trend holds on the 210 already received ballots, he will win.

Takeaway: This could be a race that goes to a recount.

House District 10

Rep. David Eastman is holding onto a lead over Jesse Sumner, by 79 votes.

The Early vote leaned slightly for Sumner, 77-73. there are 568 absentee votes turned in for this district and 861 still not returned by Aug. 18.

Takeaway: 79 votes is a big lead that could narrow, but likely not enough to help Sumner to a win.

House District 23

Connie Dougherty and Kathy Henslee are in a tight race to take on incumbent Democrat Rep. Chris Tuck in November. Dougherty is winning by 16 votes and there are 504 possible absentee. Henslee carried the early vote 26-24 over Dougherty. If she gets the same percentage in the absentee ballots, she could pull off a narrow victory.

Takeaway: This race is a toss up that could be going to a recount.

Big Democrat funders try to rescue troubled Galvin after poor primary showing

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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has just poured a half million dollars to prop up the campaign of Alyse Galvin, who is has already spent more money than Congressman Don Young in the congressional race.

In Tuesday’s Primary election, Young won 36,674 votes on the Republican ballot, while Galvin only got 24,134 votes. Absentees have not yet been counted.

Galvin’s performance with voters was so poor, in spite of her campaign outspending Young five-to-one, that the television buy from the DCCC came as soon as the committee realized she is in trouble.

Galvin’s own campaign’s television ad buy is $700,000, compared with Young’s $400,000. Now comes the DCC’s $500,000, bringing her a whopping $1.2 million for television ads to present herself to voters.

That’s a lot for television in Alaska. But it’s not that much for the DCCC, and there’s a message there. Galvin is evidently not as strong a candidate as Ethan Berkowitz was in 2008. That year, the DCC poured $6 million into propping up his campaign.

Young received 50% of the vote in 2008, to Berkowitz’s 45% that year.

Berkowitz came closer than any other candidate to unseating Young since John Devens of Valdez tried to bump him off in 1990.

If the DCCC was as confident of Galvin as it was of Berkowitz, it would be spending $7.2 million on those television buys, which is what that $6 million in 2008 would translate to today, if counting for inflation.

Mike Robbins jumps in for Anchorage mayor

Longtime Anchorage resident and businessman Mike Robbins has announced his candidacy for Mayor of Anchorage in the 2021 Municipality of Anchorage Election.

“Our city is in dire straits,” says Robbins. “A government and its leadership shouldn’t ask for forgiveness, but rather for permission from its citizenry. It’s time Anchorage residents are put first,” Robbins added.

Robbins has lived in Anchorage since 1975. He grew up in West Anchorage in the community of Spenard. He’s owned and managed businesses for over three decades, employing hundreds of Alaskans while deeply engaged in community service, civic advocacies and the faith-based community.

Supported by wife Tetyana and his three children, Daniel, Richie, and Elizabeth, all of whom attend and graduated from schools in the Anchorage School District, he is committed to public service. Robbins and family live in lower Hillside where he serves as the GOP HD 26 Chairman in Rep. Laddie Shaw’s district. He has never filed or run for political office.

The Robbins for Mayor campaign team includes co-chairs Mead Treadwell, Alaska’s former Lt. Governor, and Lesil McGuire, former South Anchorage State Senator. Brian Mentzer, former CEO of Anchorage Fracture and Orthopedic Clinic and also of Capstone Clinic, will serve as campaign manager. Carl Propes, owner of Scan Home Furniture and former Heritage Land Bank commissioner, Anchorage Parks & Recreation Commission chair, and Girdwood Alliance member, will serve as Treasurer. Jason Warfield, former Vice President and General Manager for Mercedes-Benz of Anchorage and Worthington Ford Lincoln, will serve as Finance Chair. Additional endorsements and leadership-support announcements are forthcoming in the fall of 2020 after the campaign headquarter launches.

“The Municipality of Anchorage deserves a mayor with the aptitude and skill sets to lead, manage, delegate, and listen,” notes Robbins. “I’ll be accessible, ethical, and on the side of the citizens of Anchorage.”

Robbins is a faith-centered, pro-law-enforcement, pro-business, pro-military, pro-people candidate who will work tirelessly to bring Anchorage back into prosperity. His civic contributions include past and present memberships in the Anchorage Fur Rondy, Rotary, National Rifle Association, Anchorage Chamber of Commerce, Pump Up the Kids – Foster Care Support (Founder), Captain Cook Jaycees, Challenge Alaska, Alaska Institute for Growth, and House District 26 Republicans.

More information can be found at RobbinsForMayor.com

Nome’s Neal Foster in a tight primary race to lesser known Democrat from Shishmaref

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Rep. Neal Foster, the powerful Democrat co-chair of the House Finance Committee, is only 38 votes ahead in a primary race in which newcomer Tyler Ivanoff of Shishmaref challenged him.

Just one precinct — Diomede — has not yet reported, and the absentee ballots are yet to be counted.

Ivanoff filed to run against the legacy Democrat in Nome District 39. Foster is the son of the late Rep. Richard Foster, who represented the district from 1989 until his death in 2009.

Upon his death, Neal applied for his seat and was appointed by Gov. Sean Parnell. Foster was elected the following year and has served for the past decade.

Foster is a graduate of Nome-Beltz High School, Stanford University, and University of Alaska.

Ivanoff ran on a pro-Permanent Fund dividend platform, something that distinguishes him from Foster, who voted to cut the dividend and use a portion of it for state services.

Ivanoff was the mayor of the City of Elim and president of the Native Village of Elim.

“I’m here to Stand up for Alaskans and District 39. I will do anything I can to let the people of Alaska decide how they want to spend the Permanent Fund. It should never be the Legislatures decision, no matter how tough that decision may be. I’m all for protecting the PFD and enshrining the Original Formula in the State Constitution,” Ivanoff wrote on his campaign website.

Shishmaref is a small, isolated community of 550 people located on Sarichef Island in the Chukchi Sea, five miles from mainland Alaska. From the island, Russia can be seen on a clear day.

With few votes left to be counted, it’s a safe bet that Foster will retain his position as the Democratic nominee to face Republican Dan Holmes, who was unopposed and won 536 votes in the Republican primary.

But the Democrat race could tighten and be forced into a recount. Absentees will be counted starting Aug. 25.

The Foster-Ivanoff race is one of six Democrat primary contests for Alaska House seats this year. The only other close race is in District 1, where Bennie Colbert trails Christopher Quist, 384-395, with all precincts counted but no absentees accounted for. The only other incumbent Democrat to get a same-party challenge was Adam Wool of District 5 Fairbanks. He won 675 votes to Taryn Hughes’ 446 votes and will face Republican Kevin McKinley in the General Election — for a second match up. McKinley ran two years ago against Wool.

No LeDoux, as David Nelson pulls 3 out of 4 Republican votes in Muldoon

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By SCOTT LEVESQUE

The District 15 House primary race, which featured incumbent Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux pitted against primary challenger David Nelson, garnered a lot of interest around the state.

LeDoux is facing one felony charge and nine misdemeanors charges in conjunction with voter misconduct related to her 2014 and 2018 campaigns. The charges originated from an investigation into the 2018 Republican House primary.  

The joint investigation by Alaska State Troopers and the FBI revealed LeDoux lobbied for individuals living outside District 15 to vote in the 2014 and 2018 primary and general elections.

LeDoux’s former chief of staff, Lisa Simpson and Simpson’s son, Caden Vaught, have been accused of soliciting votes from individuals living outside the district. Both have been charged with several counts of voter misconduct. 

As LeDoux entered the 2020 elections, serious questions loomed about voter confidence and the possibility of reelection. Those questions were answered last night as challenger David Nelson took a commanding lead in the District 15 House primary garnering 407 votes to LeDoux’s 106. 

LeDoux won fewer votes than the leading Democrat on the other “ADL” ballot. Lyn Franks received 188 votes and will proceed to the November ballot to face off with Nelson.

The election results were consistent with a recent poll conducted between August 11 – 13 of 121 registered Republican voters in District 15. In that poll, LeDoux had 19 percent support, Nelson had 49 percent and undecided were 32 percent in the Republican primary.

But the pending court case did not do LeDoux any favors in the court of public opinion. 

In District 15, voter turnout has always been a challenge. In 2014 only 34% of the district voted compared to 2016 at 37%, and in 2018 the percentage dropped to 28%.

What is clear is that voters in JBER-Muldoon want a new face representing their interests in Juneau.

Kopp, Johnston find no favor with South Anchorage base

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In South Anchorage, Reps. Chuck Kopp and Jennifer Johnston, each polished and experienced lawmakers and campaigners, were soundly trounced in Tuesday’s primaries by challengers from the right.

The voting patterns in their districts — 24 and 28 — were almost identical on Primary Election Day.

The two Republicans got in trouble with their bases after they organized a Democrat-Republican caucus that put Democrats in charge of key committees, and installed a Democrat speaker, all of which made Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s agenda fall flat, even though the House was clearly dominated by Republicans.

Kopp became Rules chair in that House organization, and Johnston became vice chair of Finance, eventually ascending to co-chair.

Kopp, the District 24’s Republican incumbent, only received 601 votes on Tuesday.

In 2018, Kopp won 1,535 of the primary ballots, compared with challenger Stephen Duplantis’ 642 votes.

This year it was flipped, with challenger Tom McKay bringing in twice the votes that Kopp received — 1,202.

Johnston, District 28’s Republican incumbent, received just 600 votes in the Republican primary. Newcomer James Kaufman won decisively with 1,625.

Two years ago, Johnston won the primary with 1,637 votes.

Both incumbents are solid campaigners and both are likable, have excellent communication skills, and have the benefit of professional staff who take personal leave to work on their campaigns with them.

But it wasn’t enough for South Anchorage, which turned a lot more “red” on Tuesday. Both seats are considered safe Republican for the General Election.

The numbers on these races and others in Alaska will change as absentee ballots are counted beginning Aug. 25. But they won’t be enough to pull either of these public officials to victory.

A night for upsets as incumbents struggle

It was a rough night for Alaska State House and Senate incumbents on Tuesday, but some races are too close to call and there are still many absentee ballots to be counted. 

One takeaway is that the full-PFD message is powerful in Alaska politics. With only $5 billion and change left in the Earnings Reserve Account, the victors will have a very tough time paying the bills this coming year. But Alaskans are angry that the statute was not followed.

Here are a few results as of 1 am. Check for more stories throughout the day on some of these races:

Winners

Gov. Mike Dunleavy was the big winner as those Republicans worked against his agenda are generally in peril. This matters especially because Dunleavy didn’t get involved in this election cycle, except to give some nice remarks about Congressman Don Young at a fundraiser.

Senate Seat D: Sen. David Wilson, R, got by Stephen Wright and several other contenders in Wasilla.

Senate Seat H: Madeleine Gaiser
 was unopposed on the Republican side, got 1,222 votes, more than Sen. Bill Wielechowski’s 1,004, for this East Anchorage seat. She somewhat unknown but could give Bill-Wiel a run for his Big Union money.

Senate Seat M: Sen. Josh Revak, R,
 1,653, Borbridge 268, Metcalfe, 636.

Senate Seat N: Roger Holland, R,
 2,586, Sen. Cathy Giessel, 1,010.

House District 6: Mike Cronk, R, won with over 1,034 votes. Interior seat being vacated by Rep. Dave Talerico.

House District 7: Chris Kurka, R,
 won with 1,294, over former Rep. Lynn Gattis, 520.

House District 8: Kevin McCabe, R, 
won, 1,377, over Rep. Mark Neuman, 809.

House District 9: Rep. George Rauscher, R,
 won with 1,226 over challenger L.D. Howard, 857.

House District 10: Rep. David Eastman, R, holds the lead 1,129, to Jesse Sumner, 1,050.

House District 13: Ken McCarty, R, 
won with 510 over Rep. Sharon Jackson, 351.

House District 15: David Nelson, R, 
won with 407 over Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, 106.

House District 24: Tom McKay, R, 1,202
, over Rep. Chuck Kopp 601. More coverage on this key race later this morning.

House District 25: Rep. Mel Gillis, R,
 912, over Benjamin Rodriguez, 203.

House District 27: Rep. Lance Pruitt, R, unopposed, won 1,302 votes, and Liz Snyder, D, received less than half that. They face each other in November.

House District 28: James Kaufman, R,
 won 1,625 over Rep. Jennifer Johnston, 600.

House District 30: Ron Gillham, R,
 won with 1,168, with Gary Knopp at 258, and Kelly Wolfe, 474.

House District 36: Leslie Becker, R,
 unopposed, won 1,103 votes and will face Indie-Dem Dan Ortiz in November. She’ll need to increase her turnout to successfully upset him, as in 2018’s general election he got 4,256 votes.


Losers

Incumbents in general did poorly. Looks like Sen. Giessel, and Reps. Johnston, Kopp, LeDoux are out, others are in peril.

Alyse Galvin, running for U.S. House, has to be worried. She only received 23,786 votes at last count in her Democrat primary. Congressman Don Young, the Republican, received 36,394. Lots of absentees will close that gap.

Al Gross, D, running for U.S. Senate, only received 22,329 in his primary. U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan went over 45,689, more than double.

Curiosities / Too Close to Call

Senate Seat B: Robb Myers, R, 1,447 holds the lead over Sen. John Coghill, 1,321.

Senate Seat L: Stephen Duplantis 
is ahead with 1,351, Natasha Von Imhof has 1,266, but likely had a robust absentee ballot chase. Duplantis had a small campaign budget, not likely enough to do an absentee ballot program.

Senate Seat P: John Cox, R, 1,403, holds the lead over Sen. Gary Stevens, 1,334 for this Kodiak-Homer seat.

House District 1: Rep. Bart LeBon, R, won uncontested Republican Primary with 788 votes, but the Democrat votes totaled 778 amongst the two contenders on the D side, so this will again be a squeaker race in November, when LeBon faces Democrat winner Christopher Quist, who won 394 votes.

House District 2: Rep. Steve Thompson, R, holds a slight lead 356 to Dave Selle’s 343.

House District 5: Kevin McKinley, R, unopposed, won 914, which is more than his opponent received in his primary. Rep. Adam Wool, D, only Brough in 675, which may worry him going into November.

House District 23: Connie Dougherty, R, won with 441 to Kathy Henslee, 425. Too close to call.

House District 35: Kenny Skaflestad, R, 336, in a tight race with Arthur Martin, 326 for the Republican Primary. The winner takes on Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins.

Giessel was her own undoing

PRIMARY 2020 ANALYSIS

What a bloodbath! Even though tens of thousands of absentee ballots have yet to be counted, some incumbents took such a beating Tuesday, 60,000 uncounted ballots can’t save them.

Tuesday’s primary election results proved one thing: Voters aren’t idiots. 

No single candidate showed less respect for voters’ intelligence than Senate President Cathy Giessel. What was she thinking? 

Giessel cut a YouTube video during her last campaign promising to work with Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. But instead she became his chief antagonist.  Did Giessel think so little of voters she thought they wouldn’t notice. 

She also promised to restore the full dividend check and return the money former Gov. Bill Walker took. Instead she became chief among permanent fund raiders. Her efforts would cost each Alaskan close to $6,000? Did she really believe she could pull a fast one over on voters when there was that much money at stake? 

Giessel often sounds like a kindergarten teacher dealing with a four-year-old. But voters are not children. Her choice to underestimate their ability to know when a candidate is lying cost her the Senate presidency. 

If Giessel would have argued circumstances changed since she cut the original YouTube video and that’s why she didn’t fulfill her promise, some voters might have cut her some slack. 

But instead, she cut a new YouTube video during this campaign doubling down on her claim that she fought for a full dividend. Which is of course ridiculous and something only a four-year-old might fall for. 

The thing is, even voters who don’t care as much as others about the dividend probably turned on Giessel. They had to if they value authenticity, transparency, and honesty.

Giessel also doubled down on her deception during an interview on the Mike Porcaro Radio Show. She came across as short-tempered, condescending, and blatantly dishonest. It’s difficult to imagine those still on the fence about voting for Giessel still supporting her after hearing her on the Porcaro Show.  

Giessel also had a tyrant vibe about her. The way she punished the most conservative legislators, for of all things voting their conscience instead of what she wanted, it was not a good look for her. 

When the legislators who were targets of Giessel’s wrath were vocal about her unbending, rigid and retaliatory-like tactics, it was another strike against her. Giessel was already behind in the count. 

What may have hurt Giessel the most is her obvious disdain for Dunleavy. It became clear to most Giessel was a woman scorned when it came to Dunleavy after she co-authored a letter with her Lieutenant, Sen. Natasha von Imhof, to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, questioning the governor’s use of COVID-19 relief funds. 

Bottom line is Giessel was not who she said she was during her previous campaign and voters saw right through her. It’s a cautionary tale for other candidates. Trust your constituents, treat them with respect, and don’t play them for the fool.  

Dan Fagan hosts a radio show weekday mornings on Newsradio 650 KENI.