The 2026 edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its 2025–2026 US Winter Weather Forecast, offering predictions for all 18 regions of the country, including Alaska.
For Alaska, the Almanac forecasts milder-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation and snowfall. The coldest periods are expected in early to mid-December and again in mid-February. The snowiest stretches are projected for late November, mid-December, and early February.
The publication, first issued in 1792, claims an accuracy rate of about 80% for its long-range forecasts. Its predictions are based on a proprietary formula that factors in historical weather data, solar activity, and other influences. But meteorologists often urge caution when applying the Almanac’s outlook to Alaska, given the state’s size and complexity.
At one-fifth the size of the continental US, Alaska’s weather is notoriously difficult to generalize. Local climates can differ dramatically between regions such as Southeast, Interior, and Arctic Alaska. A 2018 University of Alaska Fairbanks review found the Almanac’s accuracy in Alaska was mixed, at about 65% for temperature predictions but closer to 50% for precipitation and snowfall.
Recent history reflects those inconsistencies. The 2024–2025 forecast underestimated snowfall in Anchorage while overestimating warmth in Fairbanks, though it correctly predicted mild spells in Southeast Alaska.
After an unseasonably cool early summer in some parts of Alaska, late August has turned warmer, with the Alaska State Fair, ending on Sept. 1, enjoying mild enough weather for shorts and t-shirts.
Four in a row: Winters in Alaska have been on the colder side
Could that mean, lots of snow again? The birds and squirrels have been real busy this last few weeks storing up. Alaska has great winters for the young, not so much for the old and disabled. I’m going on my 74th and just hope I don’t have too remove to much snow.
At least the Farmer’s Almanac uses past history which includes repeatable weather cycles that exceed personal lifetimes. This in contrast where today a relatively short trend of 30 or 40 years that is then used to “justify” extreme measures to fight “climate change”. The truth is that weather and climate on this planet is based on a host of complex variables that now-one really understands! The more we learn about it, the more we realize we don’t understand in the universe of unknown!
Farmers Alamanac is about 50% accurate. The vague forecasts are not at all reliable.
Out “best” Meterologists in Alaska are about the same accuracy, and only to about 48 hours out.
Not sure why people put any reliance on a forecast anymore than three days out.