A fresh poll from Alaska Survey Research shows that congressional candidate Sarah Palin still has a high negative rating among most Alaska voters and it’s hurting the chances Republicans have for winning back the congressional seat in November from the Democrats. Even though 60% of voters chose a Republican in the special general election to replace the late Congressman Don Young, Democrat Mary Peltola won with 40%.
Now, voters must choose who will have the seat starting in January and for the next two years.
Over 65% of those surveyed said they have a somewhat or very negative view of Palin, Alaska’s former governor. She does worse with voters than even President Joe Biden, who is has a 59% negative rating among those surveyed. 36% of those surveyed had positive opinions of Biden, but less than 31% had positive opinions of Palin.
Palin also fares worse on this poll than former President Donald Trump in terms of negatives. 56% of Alaskans surveyed in the poll have a somewhat or very negative view of Trump.
Palin also is worse off in the ratings than Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is rated poorly by 50% of those polled. Palin does worse than Bill Walker, who Palin endorsed for governor in 2014; Walker has a 43% negative rating, and a 5.6% “who?” factor.
As for Republican congressional candidate Nick Begich, he has a 40.6% negative rating and 42% positive rating.
The poll also shows that 54% view Congresswoman Mary Peltola positively (27% negatively) and nearly 49% of voters would rank Peltola in the first round of ranked choice voting. That’s nearly enough to win outright. Candidates need to reach 50+1 to win without having to go to a second round of voting.
Begich comes in with the second-most first place votes, with nearly 27% choosing him first. Palin drops to 24% first-place votes, and Chris Bye, the Libertarian, gets 2.4% in this poll.
When Bye is eliminated for the second round of vote redistribution, Peltola reaches nearly 50%, with Begich at 26.3% and Palin at 24% This shows that some of Bye’s voters are choosing Peltola second on their ballots, but there are not many votes of his to redistribute.
In Round 3, if Palin is eliminated, Peltola reaches 54.3% and wins, with Begich ending up with 45.7%, meaning that many of Palin’s voters are going over to Peltola to give her the win.
In the Round 3 hypothetical, if Begich was eliminated, Peltola wins with 56.4% of the vote and Palin ends up with 43.6%, which shows that many of Begich voters are not choosing Palin second, but are going with Peltola second.
The statewide survey was conducted Sept. 25-27. While Alaska Survey Research has had variable results in polling of past races, the polling company has, this year, nailed the Alaska congressional race, even with the wild card of ranked choice voting, which has never been used in Alaska until this year.
The survey sampled 1,403 Alaska adults ages 18 and older, and it was a poll conducted via text, which could mean the poll skews young for who the actual voters will be in the November election.
The survey also shows that Peltola, who was a relatively unknown name among most voters just six months ago, is enjoying a honeymoon period as Alaska’s first Native and first woman member of Congress. Only 7.4% of those surveyed did not know who she is.
The challenge for Republicans is whether the voters that prefer Sarah Palin or Nick Begich will rank the other Republican second. It’s the only way Republicans have to win the seat back from the Democrats, who were able to use ranked choice voting to their advantage in August to flip Alaska’s congressional seat blue.
