New Democrat poll shows Republican Kelly Tshibaka beating Murkowski and Gross in ranked-choice voting scenario


A poll by the left-leaning Change Research group pits Sen. Lisa Murkowski against two other candidates — Republican candidate Kelly Tshibaka and former senatorial Democrat-backed candidate Al Gross. Tshibaka wins, hands down.

In the ranked-choice election method to be used in Alaska for the first time in 2022, Murkowski and Gross split the liberal vote in this poll. John Wayne Howe, who the pollster uses as a placeholder right-leaning candidate of the Alaskan Independence Party, trails in this poll.

In the poll, Tshibaka was ranked #1 by 39 percent of respondents, with Al Gross ranked first by 25 percent, and Murkowski ranked first by 19 percent.

When the second choice votes are recalculated and reassigned, as they will be in Alaska’s ranked-choice process, Tshibaka wins over Gross. Many of the poll participants who had Murkowski as their first choice, picked Gross as their second. The final tally is Tshibaka over Gross 54-46.

Change Research does polling for groups such as the Democratic Attorney Generals Association, NAACP, labor unions such as the AFL-CIO, and the Future Majority group, run by Democratic political strategists. This poll was paid for by the 314 Action Fund, which is trying to get more climate change scientists elected to Congress.

The poll used ranked-choice methodology to ask over 1,023 likely voters in Alaska. from May 22-25. The group used targeted ads on Facebook and Instagram, as well as text messages sent to cell phone numbers of individuals who had a voter file that pollsters were seeking input from. The question was part of a study that included questions about other topics. Ads placed on social media targeted all Alaskan adults. Those who indicated that they were not registered to vote or they were unlikely to vote in 2022 were terminated.

The poll also asked a more general question about Murkowski’s favorability rating, which shows that 84 percent of Republicans view Murkowski unfavorably, and 6 percent of Republicans viewing her favorably; 48 percent of Democrats view her favorably, with just 32 percent viewing her unfavorably.

Results of polling like this will influence whether Democratic individual mega donors or political action committees will bother with the Alaska Senate race in 2022.

In the 2020 election cycle, the Democrats backed Al Gross against Sen. Dan Sullivan, out-raising him by millions of dollars, mostly from out of state. Gross and his independent expenditure groups had in excess of $38 million, while Sullivan and his support groups had $19 million.

Data from

Despite being outspent nearly 2-1, Sullivan won over Gross, 54-41, a better result for Sullivan than when he challenged Sen. Mark Begich in 2014, and beat Begich, 48-46.


  1. I sure hope a democrat decides to run in this race because that may be the only way Kelly Tshibaka ends up winning.

  2. Interesting that the left-leaning pollster group could not influence the poll in the direction they wanted by excluding the respondents that did not vote how they wanted the results. Tells you that we will elect a true conservative not a rino.

  3. Keep Gross in the 2022 campaign. Keep him viable just long enough to split the Lefties up. A two for one deal. Send Gross and Murkowski both out on a bear hunt, together.

  4. When one works hard and earns something it usually becomes more important to protect than something that was gifted. I don’t know Tshibaka even slightly, but if she won the seat I have little doubt she would avoid giving most Republicans a reason to replace her. That said, not sure a reliably staunch Republican is worth more to Alaska than Lisa’s seniority. To the US Tshibaka is better, but to Alaska maybe not.

  5. Don’t everyone see what’s happening here? This poll is all by design, a playbook on what needs to be done to avoid a loss. Two democrats against one republican of course the republicans will win. Now who will be the other republicans to come out and run???

  6. What exactly is a “climate change” scientist ?
    Aren’t scientists people who create theories and then work to disprove them to insure the theory can withstand reality and is accurate?
    Accuracy of descriptions are helpful, what the Democrats are recruiting are candidates who meet specific criteria:
    Politicians who are open to be purchased by foreign and domestic special interest groups to outsource our wealth, technology, industry, jobs and national security. Subsidize inefficient and uneconomic companies that cannot compete in open markets but whose ownership are favored by party elites.
    Claim to protect the environment, climate, labor protection and regulatory oversight by outsourcing to the CCP controlled mainland China, which has no environmental, climate mitigation technology, labor safeguards or ethical regulation.

  7. The thing about RCV is that it supposedly prevents the need for a runoff and creates a “consensus.” But how do you know that
    A) People will be honest about who their “second” or “third” best choices are? Or that…
    B) They’ll bother to list their other choices at all? I mean, will a partisan Dem ever put Tshibaka on their list? Likewise, I will never vote for a liar like Gross, even as my “fourth” choice.

    So what does RCV accomplish really? It’s certainly not going to make politics any less toxic; just look at last year’s senate race in Maine. But then again, who cares about reality? Certainly not Ballot Measure 2 supporters!

  8. If Al Gross outside people repeatedly call and email me in 2022 like they did in 2020, I’m filing harassment charges, because him and his comrades offend me.

  9. Is MRAK changing their tune on RCV? See, it helps outsiders of any party against swamp creatures of any party. Take the L and embrace the ranking!

  10. Other states are doing audits..and we have not done one since 2010 and that one was rife with irregularities.. I would be curious to look at the actual votes and the machines and see if Prop 2 actually won.

  11. 2022 RCV Ballot:

    1. Kelly Tshibaka
    2. John Wayne Howe
    3. A Wal-Mart parking lot raven
    4. Al Gross

    We cannot reward Lisa Murkowski for her treachery.

  12. Never fear, Phil! Kelly has come out of a lengthy career in the swamp complete with a marketing machine to keep her name front and center at all times!

    Surely the concerns about her raised by The American Conservative in their April 27th article are less important than her anti-Lisa pose and the image being created for her, amirite?

  13. I wonder what the polling would say if Lisa decides to retire and the election is between Kelly and Mark Begich, who would likely relish the chance to return to the Senate? And, which candidate would Lisa support? Hmmm.

  14. One should always be a bit circumspect when an avowedly “left-leaning” polling firm with deep ties to one political party (Democrats) releases predictions for a partisan contest. Would Change Research have an incentive to “poll up” one Republican and weaken another Republican in order to make its party’s candidate appear stronger? Probably so. And is it really plausible that 84% of Republicans would be unfavorable — and only 6% favorable — toward their party’s incumbent Senator?

  15. Hello everyone,

    This is Huhnkie Lee, running for us senate 2022 as an independent Alaskan.

    polling companies are not non-profit. they are business people.

    so they are biased on behalf of their clients.

    polling companies have employees to pay salaries to.

    and their employees have spouses, kids, cats and dogs to feed.

    so, the bottom line is,

    let us not be fooled by all these election related polls.

    at the same time,

    let’s go easy on them-


  16. Given Trump’s key role in the January 6 insurrection, the emerging details of unethical – possibly illegal – orders issued to his DOJ to seize phone records of Democrats and others, the growing body of evidence that he did indeed try to strong-arm Ukraine’s president into helping him discredit Joe Biden, not to mention the multiple financial dumpster fires he left blazing in New York, one wonders why Alaska Republicans are as devoted to him as they appear to be. Are Alaskans really that out-of-touch? Or do they just want the rest of America (and Trump himself) to think they are? Personally, I’d rather believe they know better. Because, frankly, I know they do.

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