Nate Silver to Al Gross: You aren't going to get 70%, brah - Must Read AlaskaQ
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Saturday, February 27, 2021
HomePoliticsNate Silver to Al Gross: You aren’t going to get 70%, brah

Nate Silver to Al Gross: You aren’t going to get 70%, brah

bronsonformayor

Even Nate Silver, the Generation X statistician who is looked to by Democrats to paint a rosy picture for their prospects, isn’t buying what Alan Gross is selling.

Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com and the author of “ The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”

On Twitter, Silver noted that Alaska Senate candidate Gross was projecting a win for himself, once all the votes are counted.

Silver generously wrote that Gross was making a “bold claim,” but allowed that since the mail-in ballots were not counted, then not much information was known about the race between Gross and U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan.

But this much is known: Gross underperformed Joe Biden by about 3,000 votes (of the votes already counted), while Sullivan over-performed President Donald Trump by more than 1,000 votes. Trump won Alaska, it appears, by a healthy margin.

Another way of looking at it: A voter who filled in the oval for President Trump was never going to fill in the oval for Alan Gross.

“Since there’s no gap so far between the Senate and the presidency so far I suppose that claim also implies that Biden could win Alaska,” Silver continued.

He added: “(I do not think Joe Biden is going to win Alaska. Just saying we don’t know much about it yet if there’s no mail vote counted.)

Must Read Alaska‘s crack election analyst is fairly certain that Joe Biden is not going to win Alaska, even though some 40 percent or more of the vote isn’t counted.

Because Gross needs to get over 7 out of 10 of the remaining uncounted votes to win, Gross’ claim is beyond bold, unless he knows something about all those Democrat-harvested ballots that MRAK doesn’t know.

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Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • It is the law and only fair that every Alaskan’s vote must be counted and verified no matter what we think the outcome may be.

    • Every legal Alaskan’s vote!

    • So should every American’s vote count. Why are the media and all the leftists telling the rest of us that our votes don’t count?

      • Can you please provide evidence of the media and all the leftists telling you all that your votes don’t count?

        • Yes.

          • Oh STEVE-O, you misspelled “Of course not, because I make stuff up to suit my alternate reality.”

          • B,
            Basically any news source, be it TV, internet, newspaper, radio is the evidence you seek. It is on leftwing and rightwing news sources and everything in between. Our elected representatives are all over every news source telling us the election is over. It’s kinda been the news for the last week and a half, where you been B?
            .
            How many elections have been certified B?
            .
            How’s that for reality B?

  • I fully agree, but it is also the law that every vote counted be cast by a voter who is alive and registered to vote in Alaska and not just by someone on a mailing list

    • Do you have any evidence to suggest that there is fraudulent voting in Alaska?

      • Tom,
        In past years I have noticed that certain districts vote total exceeds the number of registered voters!? Also, I know a women who was a poll observer during the 2010 Senatorial race ballot count. She said that whole precinct would come in with “Lisa Murkowski” all written in the same hand. So, yeah it happens, even in Alaska.

        • That is not evidence. Anecdotal, hearsay from one poll observer is not evidence. If this really occurred , did she report it? If this really occurred, what credentials does she have to creditably analyze and confirm that all of these alleged “Lisa Murkowskis” were written by the same hand? Which district’s vote totals exceed the number of registered voters? Give me specifics. Give me real evidence.

        • That is not evidence. Anecdotal, hearsay from one poll observer is not evidence. If this really occurred, did she report it? If this really occurred, what credentials does she have to creditably analyze and confirm that all of these alleged “Lisa Murkowskis” were written by the same hand? Which district’s vote totals exceed the number of registered voters? Give me specifics. Give me real evidence.

      • Do you have any evidence you’re not a pedophile

        • What an asinine statement! You should know, that it is impossible, or nearly impossible, to prove a negative. The allegation I responded to was a positive, which requires proof. Please make intelligent statements.

        • The best evidence here would be Tom’s absence from your list of contacts (I’m only assuming you two aren’t acquainted)

  • Not to worry, Creepy Joe and Kamalala will appoint the Bear Doctor as some sort of overseer or Kommissar for Alaska. Maybe he can run the re-education camps.

    • What specifically is creepy about the President-elect?

        • So, you do not consider Trump’s admittance that he can grab a woman’s p***y simply because he is famous not to be creepy? Please be consistent.

          • Tom,

            Try and stay on subject, you asked what was creepy about Joe Biden, I provided a link of him being creepy. His being creepy has nothing to do with Trump being creepy.

        • You are absolutely correct. I asked a simple question about what you considered to be creepy about president-elect Biden and you responded. So I apologize about veering off topic.

          I did not ask what you felt what was creepy about Trump. I will do so now. Is there anything about Trump that you find creepy? I’m interested in determining, specifically, what you think is creepy behavior between a man and a woman.

          • Tom,

            There’s plenty that President Trump does that I find creepy, have you ever seen the inside of his penthouse?
            .
            As far as you wanting to know what I think is creepy behavior between a man and a woman, well it’s kinda creepy that you want to know that…

      • Perhaps you have blocked from memory the stories and video of the now chief creep with his hands on the shoulders and backs of young girls and adult women? There is a lot more of that material than evidence that Trump “colluded” with Russia in 2016.

      • You’re joking, right?

      • If you’re referring to Biden, have you never seen all those pictures of him sniffing women’s hair and groping little girls? There’s a lot more than that which you probably wouldn’t believe. The man is a pervert and a pedophile.

        • He’s also a traitor, selling his influence to make his family rich to those who hate us.

          • I don’t know how many times I must ask this same question. What proof do you have of your allegations. Even the Republican Senate Report (hardly a friend of president-select Biden) did not present ANY evidence of wrong-doing. You are incredibly long on allegations, but incredibly short on supporting detail.

      • Ignorance is bliss

    • Maybe he’ll get appointed as a bear cub culler but then in fact he’s never killed a bear. His buddy killed the cub.
      A blow hard Democrat making s——stuff up. Where are the claws?

      • Just so readers know, Mr. Gay has gone eye-to eye-ball with some of the most dangerous bears ever to inhabit the Earth. I am on Will’s team, any day.

  • Caution: Dominion runs the voter machines up here, as in other states.

  • Beware the ballot dumps in the night

  • LEGAL vote.

    • That also means we must not put up barriers for citizens to legally vote. In fact, we should do everything in our power to make legal voting as easy as possible.

      • Easy to vote is easy to cheat. It’s not asking too much of people to get off their backsides once every 4 years and go to the polling place or fulfill the requirements of the absentee ballot process. People too lazy to vote according to the process are most likely too lazy to get informed and vote intelligently.

        • Once again, please show me the proof of cheating? So Trump’s lawyers have not been able to do so. I also find it repugnant that you suggest that all people who vote by mail are lazy. Some people are in the military and are deployed outside of the state. Some people are physically disabled and cannot go to a polling place. Who are you to make such judgments?

        • Are you saying you encourage Republicans to only vote every four years? I like your plan.

      • Agreed. fortunately, anyone can request an absentee ballot, and a whole lot of Anchorageites went to vote early as opposed to on Election Day. There are no actual, factual barriers to voting in Alaska for anyone who gives even a quarter-damn about the franchise.

        I’d go so far as to make Election Day a National Holiday, with the trade-off of no more automatically sent-out mail-in votes, ripe for, as we have seen, confusion if not fraud, and eliminate “motor voter” registration. There is no rational argument to be made that anyone supposedly competent enough to vote can’t get registered online or via the mail, nor provide ID to do so.

        For that matter, I would make voter registration require annual or biannual renewal to keep the voter rolls accurate. If you can remember to pay your various bills, and renew your tags, you can take the minimal amount of time to go online and check your registration status and update it as needed. If you “forget,” well, there’s your reminder for next year, alleged competent autonomous adult.

        • Yes, you are correct. Anyone can vote by mail. Even that orange man who is still in the White House for two months has voted by mail. Do you think he is lazy. Please be consistent. Please do not be a hypocrite. Or do you suggest that Trump does not give a damn?

  • Joe isn’t even president, people. If he were, I’m not sure he’d want to piss off half of the United States. He promised he was going to bring us all together like a shepherd gathering the flock. He must have some magical powers that can change the leftist mentality because I guarantee I’m not changing my mind.

  • Morrigan to Gross: Get the hell out of Alaskans’ lives.
    .
    Take your lousy rotten, corrupt, dark money, baby-killing, lying, treasonous, socialist bullsh… (whoops, can’t say that!) ideology with you.
    .
    Not on a good day are you gonna ride Biden’s coattails so you can crap all over us too.

    Get out and don’t come back, Al.
    .
    (Said of course in a loving way so our post doesn’t get deleted…)

  • Write your legislators. Tell them to end vote-by-mail in Alaska. Do it now.

    • Excellent idea. Short of that, significantly tighten up the rules and time frames for executing mail-in ballots and remove any language that Leftist judges can use to circumvent or excuse compliance with the law.

    • It was the State legislature behind the election fraud. Why do you think the State legislature suddenly expected the Governor’s declaration of emergency to extend until November 15, 2020? It had always been the intention of the State legislature to commit massive election fraud. Getting the courts to eliminate verifying ballot signatures was part of their scheme all along. With no witnesses, as ordered by the corrupt AK Supreme Court, even the dead were voting and being counted in this election.

  • Why you Gotta be so Mean? It seems like one of the biggest problems the U.S. faces today is the extreme anger of the current level of partisanship. Aren’t we all Americans? Aren’t we all Alaskans. Why can’t we live together, and debate our different perspectives, without vitriol and hatred? Will you promise to attempt that?

  • More than 5 million fraudulent votes were cast for democrats. I sure wish the other Republican candidates who lost because of this massive criminal enterprise would step forward and join President Trump’s fight for honest elections. What would Ed Boyko do?

    • Once again. Please supply proof. Assertions and allegations are completely meaningless. One of American’s strongest values is justice, and justice requires evidence. Our criminal trials requires evidence to convict a person. The same should apply to any allegation. That is the essence of logic and critical thinking skills.

  • Alan Gross was born in Alaska. He has worked his entire life in Alaska. He earned his own money. He does not own a mansion in California. It’s a house he and his wife bought when they went to school there. If he collected PFDs while going to school, it was legal and the same as when our children went to college and maintained residency.
    Dan Sullivan, born to wealth in Ohio, came to Alaska to get an easy Senate seat. He was funded by the Koch Brothers and his wealthy family. Look it up.
    Nothing has changed in the way Alaska votes. We’be been able to vote absentee in previous elections. When did any of you challenge that? Rumors and unfounded stories about corruption are just that until you prove it with valid evidence.
    Alaska has a lot of great poll workers who put in long hours serving the people, even in this pandemic. Quit trying to blacken their reputations.

  • Alan Gross was born in Alaska. He has worked his entire life in Alaska. He earned his own money. He does not own a mansion in California. It’s a house. If he collected PFDs while going to school, it was legal and the same as when our children went to college and maintained residency.
    Dan Sullivan, born to wealth in Ohio, came to Alaska to get an easy Senate seat. He was funded by the Koch Brothers and his wealthy family. Look it up.
    Nothing has changed in the way Alaska votes. We’be been able to vote absentee in previous elections. When did any of you challenge that? Rumors and unfounded stories about corruption are just that until you prove it with valid evidence.
    Alaska has a lot of great poll workers who put in long hours serving the people, even in this pandemic. Quit trying to blacken their reputations.

  • Patrice, i do agree with you about the poll workers because i am one of them. But your facts about Al are wrong. Al is no Alaskan. He has taken millions of dollars from the liberals out of state to win an Alaskan race. We don’t want him here.

    • So it is wrong to take out-of-state money from liberals, but it is OK to take out-of-state money from conservatives (Elliott Management, RPM International, Goldman Sachs, Calfee, Halter & Griswold, Citizens for Prosperity in America Today, to name just a few for Sullivan)? Please be consistent. Otherwise, you are nothing but a hypocrite. Sort of like Sullivan and his flip-flop, along with most Republicans, on voting for a Supreme Court Justice during a presidential campaign.

  • Christen-
    Please tell me how Dan Sullivan taking millions of dollars from the “conservatives” out of state to win an Alaskan race is any different? And who is “We”? Surely you don’t speak for everyone, as you don’t speak for me and many other INDEPENDENT Alaskans. Get a clue. Both parties are more corrupt then ever, and will be for the test of time. Sullivan, Turdkowski and Young are gaurenteed to keep AK in the dark ages.. at least a fresh mind provides opportunity for diversification and an economic model NOT build on resource (and the state’s inherent wealth, for that matter) extraction.

  • Alan Gross was, like me, born and raised in Juneau. He practiced medicine there for most of his career. I knew his parents when I lived there. If you’d like to show me how isn’t an Alaskan, I’d love to see it.
    As far as most of the other accusations I’ve seen here – I would like to see facts backing them up. It’s incredibly ugly to see these accusations about elections in Alaska, funding of candidates (please explain the difference bw Outside money that went to both Sullivan and Gross), and the totally unfounded and disgusting accusations about Joe Biden. .

  • Al Gross was perhaps promised enough of those forged mail in votes to ensure a win. Given the massive outpouring for Dan Sullivan, there just were not enough phony mail in ballots to tip the difference in Al’s favor.

    • Please provide supporting evidence for your assertions! This old refrain about corruption is getting boring. Making allegations with evidence is the absolute weakest form of debate. In fact, it is not debate at all. Or, are you not interested in debate?

    • Anytime I hear the word “perhaps” in a discussion, I immediately know that there is no evidence to back up the assertion. Please supply some supporting details for any of your allegations. Otherwise, you are simply stating unfounded opinions.

  • That isn’t evidence. Anecdotal, hearsay from one poll observer is not evidence. If this really occurred, did she report it? If this really occurred, what credentials does she have to creditably analyze and confirm that all of these alleged “Lisa Murkowskis” were written by the same hand? Which district’s vote totals exceed the number of registered voters? Give me specifics. Give me real evidence.

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