Nate Silver predicts: Trump favored over Biden



Statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that the 2024 presidential election wasn’t a toss up, but rather the contest favored former President Donald Trump over incumbent Joe Biden. 

Silver, who made his name at the New York Times and later poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said the model he built suggests Trump has an edge over Biden, even though Silver said he doesn’t want Trump to be president and doesn’t plan to vote for Trump. 

“I think it’s important to be up front, because I’ve been rather lucky in one sense in my election forecasting career,” he wrote in a Silver Bulletin post. “I began making election forecasts in 2008, and in literally every presidential year since then, I haven’t really had to deal with a conflict between what I personally wanted to see happen and what my forecast said. This year, I do have that conflict. The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”

Silver’s model came the day before the first presidential debate. Jake Tapper and Dana Bash of CNN will host the debate, which is expected to last 90 minutes. There will be no live audience, the first time in decades.


  1. Way too early to make that judgment.
    Too much time ahead. Remember the “red wave”?

    Just go about your lives, vote ( yes, actually bother to vote) and let the vote speak.

  2. The passions soar but reality always wins.
    President Trump represents the will of the people and will swamp the parasite class in Nobember.

  3. Biden allowing illegal aliens into the U.S. that killed our citizens is an accessory to murder making Trump’s perceived brush with the law insignificant. I hope Trump exposes that tonight.

  4. I’m very pessimistic. Early voting, mail in ballots, high tech and the world elite all benefitting from a Biden puppet presidency. I expect a repeat of 2020, Trump jumps to a big lead only to watch it whittle away in the waning hours, Joe wins by the thinnest of margins.

    • Donald Trump has very good opportunity to win Georgia and Nevada this election cycle unlike four years ago. And Biden has a better than even chance of losing Wisconsin and Michigan this year, which would be fatal or nearly so to Biden’s candidacy.
      Pennsylvania is going to be close this election cycle and if Biden loses PA he’s probably toast.
      Biden should have ditched Harris.
      Neither candidate is particularly appealing to a large number of voters. Both of them are aging and addled.
      All of us deserve better but these two egotistical duffers are what we wound up with.

  5. Phew! I’m happy that the aipac candidate won vs the aipac candidate. We are lucky that we live in a world that aipac gets a 92% election rate for aipac backed candidates.
    Btw, if you don’t like aipac backed candidates or want aipac to register as a foreign lobbying group you get put on an extremist list and spend 3 hours at the tsa getting extra screening, every time, forever. Not a joke, DHS considers not liking aipac a sign of extremism


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