Latest Cook Political Report: House will likely go Republican

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Come Nov. 8, Republicans have a good chance to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, retiring Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. The election forecaster Cook Political Report says 212 seats lean Republican and 188 seats lean Democrat, with 35 in the toss-up lane. The political forecaster says Republicans could gain between 12-25 seats.

“The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out. And if you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation,” writes David Wasserman for Cook Political Report.

“I’ve never seen an election where the signs are this divergent and…lumpy,” Wasserman quoted one veteran Democratic strategist familiar with polling in a wide array of races. “It’s less nationalized than we’re accustomed to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield,” including “late-emerging problems in California and New York districts that Donald Trump lost by between 14 and 20 points.”

Cook Political moved 10 seats in the GOP’s direction – “all in very blue states and all in districts Biden carried by between eight and 20 points in 2020. Three are open seats where the lack of an incumbent has allowed the GOP to remain.”

Alaska could be an outlier, with the Alaska Republican Party risking losing the House of Representatives seat to a Democrat, incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola. The two Republicans in the race, thanks to ranked choice voting, have created a conundrum for conservative voters who don’t like participating in what they see as a faulty election system brought to them by the loyalists of Sen. Lisa Murkowski. It’s unclear if the “rank the red” message to conservative voters is having enough of an effect to convince them to rank both Nick Begich and Sarah Palin on their ballot. Also, Libertarian Chris Bye is on the ballot, and his voters may or may not rank a Republican after they rank him.

10 COMMENTS

  1. I am glad that the rest of the states are going in the right direction. It is really too bad that 70% of registered voters in Alaska have figured that their vote doesn’t matter. Anchorage has proven that they really don’t give a darn, thus the assembly that they are happy to complain about, but can’t seem to get together to vote them out. Nobody seems to be able to take five minutes out of their day to vote. Do you ask your friends, did you vote? If not,you are not helping. I personally drive my neighbor to the polling place because he would walk the four miles if I didn’t. When I was stuck in Africa, I found a tall building that I could send a satellite fax so I would be able to vote. This is not a meaningless process. It is part of being an American citizen and a responsibility that should be treasured. When you can vote in-person for ten days, how hard is that to fit into your schedule? If you haven’t made your mind up by now, then maybe you should not vote.Watch some more commercials, sponsored by lower 48 liberal organizations. Then stay on your couch with your Cheetos. And dream about utopia. But real world, if you want to continue to enjoy the country that your grandparents made, then make an effort. Educate yourself on the candidates, and make a choice. Make a difference. Thanks

  2. And yet Alaska is somehow voting for a Democrat. Have we become a blue state, or do we just have a much more sophisticated piece of Dominion software?

  3. I pray we wake up on the morning of the 9th and our country is completely republican red, and we all shocked Jesus how we United and abolished the democrats party. Suzanne president of the ladies union, your a warrior ma’am team spirit.

  4. FREE ADVICE & RECOMMENDATION:
    “Vote Republican (Dunleavy, Kelly-T and Nick-B) … They may not be perfect but the alternatives are completely irresponsible and insane!”

  5. The race between Begich, Palin, Peltola an Bye is by far the most convoluted. In that race it is essential to ‘RANK THE RED’ or we will definitely be enduring Peltola for another two years. As we have seen the past two years, much damage can occur in a short amount of time.

  6. Don’t stop YET! We still have 6 days!
    VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
    My rank will be Beigich, Bye, and Palin.
    In that order.
    I urge the same.

    – and for those of you that say nick is a snake I have news for you …. maybe we need a snake. Maybe I am naive but I dont think he will flip flop if elected. If we do not unify you can say goodbye to the most powerful seat in Alaskan government.. and I will blame Palin for her lack of stamina.
    Where is she? I haven’t seen her at ANY of the local events, – and I have been fairly active.

  7. Just make sure Nancy doesn’t steal the Speaker’s hammer on the way out. An insane Democrat with a hammer is a clear and present danger to Americans.

  8. So how do we get rid of Rank Choice Voting? Murkowski is a scammer and a 2-faced liar. She has single handedly cast the deciding vote to destroy Alaska’s economy several times in DC. Seems that most in AK have no idea how this works and are voting with the mindset of the traditional system, which makes things worse.

    Not to mention that since neither Palin nor Begich dropped out, it is likely that they will again split the Republican vote, leaving the majority again going to Peltola. Both of them have also set up Alaska for failure. This will be bad for Alaska, except for natives and liberals.

    It also appears that the term “Alaskans” takes on at least 3 different meanings depending on what is at stake and who benefits. It is no secret that the endless handout programs have gone to primarily natives. Natives have been dumped off by their villages into Anchorage to take care of and pay for. If natives claim to be to concerned about their members, it is past time that these native villages and corporations take back their own members and pay for their care, housing, food, etc. and stop the endless free handouts when most homeless have no interest in working or being self-sufficient. Stop the BS of Alaska having to pay their way. Peltola will ensure that bills and funding will be escalated to natives, while the rest of us pay for it. It would be nice if non-natives had our tax dollars go for things which interest us.

    Disgusting and has gone on too long.

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