Alaska-based Dittman Research was a clear winner on Tuesday, with a sweep of all the elections polled. The Alaska survey firm, started by Dave Dittman and now owned by Matt Larkin, predicted several races correctly. Before Tuesday’s election, Dittman made these predictions:
- Mary Peltola would win on election night with 45.5% of first-choice votes. The current standing is Peltola with 47.26%.
- Sarah Palin would come in second with 26.5% first-choice votes. She currently has 26.57%.
- Nick Begich would come in third with 24.0% first-choice votes. He is standing at 24.19%.
- Chris Bye would come in fourth with 3% first-choice votes. Bye is at 1.73%.
In the governor’s race, Dittman predicted:
- Mike Dunleavy would win with 47.5% of first-choice votes. His actual result is currently 52.06%.
- Les Gara would get 24.2%. His actual result is 23.07%.
- Bill Walker would get 23.2%. Walker is at 20.10%.
- Charlie Pierce would get 5.2%. Pierce is at 4.55%.
On Ballot Measure 1, the Constitutional Convention, Dittman predicted voters would reject it by 70%. In actuality, voters rejected the measure 69.84%.
Dittman’s predictions also delved into the second-round count. If Dunleavy drops to the 47.5% predicted by Dittman for the first round, Dittman predicts he’ll end up at over 51% in the second round. Dittman predicts Peltola will will for Congress with 56% of the votes in the final round of counting for that race. Those results won’t be known until Nov. 23, due to Alaska’s slow election process that was made worse with the ballot measure passed in 2020 that brought ranked choice voting into play in the general election.
The information that Dittman provided the day before the election:
Dittman Research is Alaska’s most trusted pollster, and has been accurately predicting the races for governor and U.S. Senate for over 50 years, since its founding in 1969, It has commercial clients and has political clients.
“We’re very pleased once again to have accurately predicted the outcome of another election cycle, and we’re grateful for the thousands of Alaskans who willingly share their views with us on the issues of the day so that we can provide the public with relevant and accurate public opinion information,” said Matt Larkin, CEO.
