By the numbers: Alaska's Red wave is largest in history this century - Must Read Alaska
Connect with:
Friday, November 27, 2020
HomePoliticsBy the numbers: Alaska’s Red wave is largest in history this century

By the numbers: Alaska’s Red wave is largest in history this century

Tuesday was huge night for Republicans and conservatives in Alaska. We have early numbers and analysis:

  • President Trump won Alaska by 63%. In 2016, he won by 51%.
  • Sen. Dan Sullivan won by 63%.  In 2014 he won by 48%.
  • Congressman Don Young won by 63%. In 2018 he won by 53%.

Voters voted a straight ticket at the top of the ballot especially — Dan Sullivan received the most votes of any candidate in Alaska in 2020, but all three winners were in the 108,000+ range on Election Night.

Trump / Pence – 108,231 
Biden / Harris – 56,849

Dan Sullivan – 108,488
Al Gross – 54,755

Don Young – 108,473
Alyse Galvin – 62,385

Ballot Measure 1 – oil tax
No – 109,097 – solid loss for sponsor Robin Brena
Yes – 59,164

Ballot Measure 2 – ranked choice voting.
No – 95,330 13.8 percent lead
Yes – 72,454 – Outside billionaires need nearly a 40 percent swing in the remaining votes in order to win. Statistically very unlikely to overcome.

Senate and House results

Observation: Republicans won 9 seats in the Senate and 28 in the House on Election Day and early voting. Absentees could carve off some of these, but solid results for conservatives, nonetheless:

Senate Seat B
Rob Myers – 7,730 – R
Marna Sanford – 3,572

Senate Seat D
David Wilson – 8,785 – R
Thomas Lamb – 1,360
James Mayfield – 1,653

Senate Seat F
Shelley Hughes – 10,120 – R
Jim Cooper – 2,271

Senate Seat H
Madeleine Gaiser – 2,991 – R
Bill Wielechowski – 2,784

Senate Seat L
Natasha von Imhof – 6,339 – R
Roselynn Casy – 2,905

Senate Seat M
Josh Revak – 6,555 – R
Andy Holleman – 3,079

Senate Seat N
Roger Holland – 6,682 – R
 Carl Johnson – 3,737

Senate Seat P
Gary Stevens – 3,667 – R
Greg Madden – 2,394

House District 1
Bart LeBon – 2,545 – R
Christopher Quist – 1,614

House District 2
Steve Thompson – 2,490 – R
Jeremiah Youmans – 785

House District 3
Mike Prax – 5,101 – R

House District 4
Keith Kurber – 3,415 – R
Grier Hopkins – 2,958

House District 5
Kevin McKinley – 2,824 – R
Adam Wool – 2,353

House District 6
Mike Cronk – 3,184 – R
Julie Hnilnicka – 1,378
Elijah Verhagen – 493

House District 7
Christopher Kurka – 4,418 – R
Jamin Burton – 1,208

House District 8
Kevin McCabe – 5,470 – R
Alma Hartley – 886

House District 9
George Rauscher – 4,453 – R
Bill Johnson – 1,114

House District 10
David Eastman – 5,152 – R
Monica Stein-Olson – 1,149

House District 11
DeLena Johnson – 5,207 – R
Andrea Hackbarth – 1,377

House District 12
Cathy Tilton – 5,752 – R

House District 13
Ken McCarty – 2,450 – R
James Canitz – 665

House District 14
Kelly Merrick – 3,263 – R
Mike Risinger – 623

House District 15
David Nelson – 1,411 – R
Lyn Franks – 1,022

House District 16
Paul Bauer – 1,721 – R
Ivy Spohnholz – 1,319

House District 17
Andy Josephson – 2,145 – D

House District 18
Harriet Drummond – 2,279 – D

House District 19
Geran Tarr – 1,916 – D

House District 20
Zack Fields – 2,075 – D

House District 21
Lynette Largent – 1,946 – R
Matt Claman – 1,869 (since publication, Claman has pulled ahead when final Election Day votes were tallied on Nov. 4).

House District 22
Sara Rasmussen – 3,158 – R
Stephen Trimble – 1,144

House District 23
Kathy Henslee – 2,136 – R
Chris Tuck – 1,587

House District 24
Tom McKay – 3,584 – R
Sue Levi – 1,718

House District 25
Mel Gillis – 2,794 – R
Cal Schrage – 1,963

House District 26
Laddie Shaw – 4,290 – R

House District 27
Lance Pruitt – 2,926 – R
Liz Snyder – 1,834

House District 28
James Kaufman – 3,837 – R
Suzanne LaFrance – 2,209

House District 29
Ben Carpenter – 2,453 – R
Paul Dale – 847

House District 30
Ron Gillham – 1,051 – R
James Baisden – 516

House District 31
Sarah Vance – 2,678 – R
Kelly Cooper – 1,281

House District 32
Louise Stutes – 1,953 – R

House District 33
Sara Hannan – 3,663 – D

House District 34
Andy Story – 2,934 – D
Ed King – 2,211

House District 35
Kenny Skaflestad – 2,063 – R
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins – 1,912

House District 36
Dan Ortiz – 2,805 – D
Leslie Becker – 2,214

House District 37
Bryce Edgmon – 624 – D

House District 38
Tiffany Zulkosky – 764 – D
Willy Keppel – 502

House District 39
Neal Foster – 1,834 – D
Dan Holmes – 573

House District 40
Josiah Patkotak – 1,342 – I
Elizabeth Ferguson – 678 -D

Not a single Republican incumbent was defeated.  Republicans held all 10 open seats.

Five Democrat incumbents — Grier Hopkins, Adam Wool, Ivy Spohnholz, Chris Tuck and Jonathon Kriess-Tomkins — were defeated on Election Day. Claman and Kreiss-Tomkins may be able to claw back enough votes in absentees to recover their seats.

There are still over 125,000 votes to count and some results may change.

But on Nov. 3, in Alaska, 2020, the people voted for the largest Republican victory in this century.

Donations Welcome

Share

Written by

Suzanne Downing had careers in business and journalism before serving as the Director of Faith and Community-based Initiatives for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and returning to Alaska to serve as speechwriter for Gov. Sean Parnell. Born on the Oregon coast, she moved to Alaska in 1969.

Latest comments

  • This is great news for Alaska. I hope this has the rest of the liberals and most of the communist Anchorage Assembly dusting off their resumes because we are coming for you (via the ballot box of course). This clearly shows you can stuff your liberal BS that laws apply to everyone but you and those you control. That’s not how it works. Alaska has had it and have redefined the term “woke”. And, since they legalized heroin and other hard drugs in Oregon, maybe the dopers will move there. It’s a much more forgiving climate for street camping as well.

  • From judicialwatch.org/press-releases/new-jw-study-voter-registration/ we find:
    .
    “Judicial Watch announced today that a September 2020 study revealed that 353 U.S. counties had 1.8 million more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens. In other words, the registration rates of those counties exceeded 100% of eligible voters. The study found eight states showing state-wide registration rates exceeding 100%: Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont.”
    .
    The J-W report further says Alaska, which apparently has no separate reporting of inactive registrations, has 111% more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens.
    .
    Alaskan non-Swampers don’t know where these ghost voters might be concentrated, they don’t know to what extent ghost voters might be helping to keep traditionally Democrat precincts firmly in the “D” column.
    .
    Maybe it’s time Alaskans found out.
    .
    Governor D. this is in your wheelhouse, yes?
    .

  • Finally, good news for Alaska!

  • Democrats will be in Club Lonely during the next session in Juneau. Giessel gone. Coghill creamed. Replaced by two upstart Conservatives. Ivy sent to the shower for a scrub down. Up in Fairbanks, a huge win for Keith Kurber, taking out Scott Kendall’s brother-in-law. And disgraced Bill Walker, using his law firm to advance ballot measures 1&2…….. now reduced to laughing stock.
    .
    Governor Walker……reduce that Operating Budget. Give Alaskan’s back their FAIR SHARE of oil revenues……aka….the FULL statutory PFD.
    .
    Back to REAL work. Ahmen!

    • Mistake…….
      should be “Governor Dunleavy, reduce that Operating Budget…….”

  • This is why a party should always put up a candidate. In a wave election, people sometimes vote a straight ticket. Yes, it might have been quixotic in some of the unopposed Democrat seats, but on the other hand, some Republicans might have been elected, and established a toehold in solid Democrat districts.

  • You headline is a little confusing: Largest in History this Century. Are you saying its the largest in the last two decades?

    • A century is 100 years. There is no defined start date.

    • I’m betting on Alaskan history.

  • This is karma for the local dems. This is what you deserve for years of behaving like children. All the people you’ve hurt, all the lies you’ve told, all the crimes you’ve covered, hiring corrupt out-of-state executive directors. This is the universe showing you that you are not entitled to your crimes.

  • One wonders if the 107 vote margin for Senate District H will survive the recount and/or counting of disputed / absentee ballots?

    Even if the close races swing the other way, and even if the Biden / Harris ticket takes the Presidency, good results for Alaska….better if Trump wins of course, but could have been worse.

  • Go Sarah Vance!

    • I agree! Guess Kelly Cooper really didn’t “know the will of the People”. No mail-in voting here!!!

  • Now if the Republicans can all learn to work together. This election showed that conservatives do not like coalitions that give Democrats key legislative positions. Some incumbents learned the hard way, but that’s life. Some pundits lament the loss of ‘institutional memory’ with the defeats, but every legislator was a freshman at some time and we have elected some really smart and experienced Alaskans. I have great hope for Alaska’s future and I am additionally grateful for the defeat of Props 1 and 2.

    • The victory is great! But as they say “now the real work begins”.

      Us R’s now are in a tough position. Those that ran on preserving the PFD will soon find out the emptiness of that rhetoric. If they are real conservatives and not populist panderers, we will soon find out.

      • The other challenge for us R’s is the oil taxation issue. It must be addressed to see if SB21 needs adjustment (or not?).

      • ….this new crop of Conservatives-elect are committed with the governor to reducing the Operating Budget. Let the CUTS begin. All of the state workers who never were layed-off during COVID, must now pay the price like the workers in the private sector did…..

      • Just wait for all the votes!

  • Yes, but now we have to make sure those winners don’t develop amnesia when they get to Juneau. They must be held accountable by the voters who are trusting them to do the right thing, which is NOT becoming light-headed with power and self-admiration. Have the courage to drain the swamp!

  • It’s impossible to over-state the role MustReadAK played in achieving this outcome. Perhaps there will now be real and honest year over year reductions in the size of the state operating budget if the bulk of these election outcomes hold, for the first time in state history and none too soon. Alaska can finally work toward a state and municipal government size that is afforded by actual economic output. However, with combined state and municipal government employment at 62,500 (9/20) and employment in those sectors producing goods to sell to the rest of the world amounting to far less (see https://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/ces/ces.cfm) the state will likely continue to overspend for some time despite these election results and common sense. Population decline in the cities will almost certainly resume when federal Covid spending ends. Mid-town retail and office space that has been vacant for years is unlikely to be filled. City governments will look for ways to raise taxes, and their lobbyists will be told to defeat state spending reductions in every instance, even if those lobbyists are not allowed in the Capitol. The 2022 proposed operating budget, due in about 6 weeks, could be a worthwhile preview of the coming years. Municipal governments, nonprofits, and Democrats will circumvent the legislative leadership and the Governor to plead directly to the people for an income tax on workers (as if handing dollars back and forth amongst us is some sort of solution to our lack of real economic output). These election results are exactly what Alaska has needed for some time.

    • I agree 100%, MRAK can take a huge amount of credit for getting the truth out there for Alaskans who have almost no other source for real news. MRAK, along with Alaska Watchman, should be commended for their service to Alaska!

      • Without Suzanne……..where would we be now?…….

  • There is a huge amount of absentee votes out not counted which lean heavy to the democrats.

    • How do you know that, Patrick? Pure speculation on your part. I’m a Republican and I voted absentee.

      • Not really speculation. Division of Elections has already said that registered Democrats requested absentee ballots at about 2:1 ratio over registered Republicans. It follows a nationwide trend where Democrats have been more likely to vote by mail when possible, while Republicans have been more apt to vote in person. And I’m actually with you — also Republican and also voted absentee but reality is Democrats are more likely to vote that way.

        • Yep, so they can vote twice. Absentee in September. Then again on Election Day in November. IF caught, they can just say, ” I forgot I already voted.”
          Democrats have all the answers.

    • It’s a given that there are absentee ballots coming in.
      However, what you may want to consider is there are a whole lot of seniors in that bunch!

      Seniors are super voters and many are conservative.

      So don’t bet on changes like they may have happened in the past.

      Just saying.

    • LMAO. Really? You state the obvious but it will not change the outcome. Alaskans have woken up to the dishonest underhanded dastardly attempts that the socialist Democrats have mounted against good hard-working alaskans. Good for you Alaska, I applaud you and cheer right alongside of you from sunny Florida. A part of me will always be in Alaska. Regardless of the national outcome Florida did its job and remains a red state in a big way . There were carpetbaggers down here saying that they were going to turn it when I told them this is Trump country. Well they were wrong and kind of clammed up when I reminded them of exactly where they were, surrounded by a bunch of redneck boys flying rebel flags.

    • Not speculation at all. Fact. There are about as many outstanding absentee votes remaining to be counted as were counted last night. It is almost like there were 2 elections- one yesterday where mostly Republicans voted and one for the last couple months where mostly democrats voted. Expected split of absentees is around that of actual walk-in votes yesterday, only opposite. There are a bunch of prospective new Republican legislatures who are in real trouble. Cheers –

      • You have no clue, Agimark. Wishful thinking, just like you and your ilk predicted a landslide by Biden. LOL…Here’s one for you:.
        .
        Trump’s lawsuits will make their way all the way to the US SCt. where Amy Coney Barrett and four other justices will rule that Donald John Trump will take the oath of office again on January 20, 2021.
        .
        Thank you, RBG. You saved the Republic.

      • As usual, a sober and honest assessment. The Red wave/tide is going to erode. Only question is how much. I hope not too much. We need to reform the election laws to a point where we have something that looks like a single election process for everyone. We have always had an absentee voting process but there should be a reason for using that process. Plus, the time “window” for voting should be limited to something like two weeks.

  • Suzanne, any word on the Matsu Assembly and School Board race? The Assembly website is down and nothing on the school district website as to the election.

  • This is really an overblown proclamation at this point. There is absolutely no way the margins will be this wide when all the votes are counted.

    Do you really think the Democrats have suddenly moved out of State or a had change of their ignorant hearts? We can hope, but I highly doubt that is true.

    So where are all the Demonrat votes? In absentees, mostly, yet to be counted. The Division of Elections has already said that registered Democrats requested absentees at a rate of about 2 to 1 over registered Republicans.

    Following that ratio you can almost bet that of the roughly 130,000 absentee ballots 2/3 or about 87,000 will go Democrat, with 1/3 or about 43,000 will go Republican.

    Hopefully not enough to change outcomes, since don’t get me wrong I would love to see a “red wave” sweep these bad people right out of state and back to California where they belong. But it will be enough to make early proclamations of a red wave, largest in the “history this century” (guess that meant in the past 20 years, why not just say that?) look silly.

    • The assumption that all the late votes break widely for D’s seems improbable. Considering the fact that R’s were energized on election day would seem to crossover into the late counted votes. Just my thought.

    • I really don’t know, but I do know that my wife and me, and all the Alaska seniors I know voted weeks ago and we voted exactly as the vote came out; Trump, Sullivan, Young, No & No.

    • I can tell you that many Natives now vote Republican

  • Congratulations to Kenny Skafelstad.

    He will be a vast improvement!

  • Claman as of 9AM update broke 50%, just.
    I’m seeing a solid 27-29 Republican number. That said.
    Stutes will caucus with Dems. Will LeBron and Thompson join majority? What if, as I hope will not see any major committee, much less Finance? Will it be so uncomfortable that they may go with Stutes? Time will tell.
    Still, that leaves us with 24-27 in majority!!!
    Then we have even the majority in Senate, even i Bishop, Natasha, Steban and Steven’s go to Dem. Close but still solid conservative. As of latest, that includes Bill W loosing!
    Now Gov Dunleavy has what he needs to WIN for US!

  • Does this mean that we will have an actual working legislature?

    It will be nice…for a change.

  • 2020 is a year where the people who just want to be left alone were not allowed to do so.

    The overreach of the leftists and statists has gone too far. The silent majority is beginning to wake up and let their voice be heard.

    Nationally, it is pretty good news for those that value freedom, and a the rights to earn their own way in this world (White House is the 800# gorilla exception). AK voting has demonstrated that the quiet majority is sick and tired of getting pushed around by people who fancy themselves as “better.” In my district, the race for State House was won by a relative newcomer, whereas the Muni Assembly Member got her backside handed to her. I think the primary reason is people are tired of her ignoring her constituents.

    However, it may be too late to save the Republic. When two individuals with no measurable accomplishments can get more than 50% of the popular vote, what hope is there? If the bulk of the population wants strong big government to run their lives, how can a silent majority win?

    The problem here is not a Biden/Harris presidency. The country will survive that. We survived eight years of Obama. The problem is the electorate that is buying what Biden/Harris is selling. The problem is not the Prince of Fools, it is the Fools that made him Prince.

  • Thanks Suzanne – I still have my fingernails… And thank you Alaska for having as much common sense as I suspected. Still some commies in the Anchorage Assembly that need to lose their jobs. We Republicans could have easily defeated the dems in House districts 38, 39, & 40 had we plowed some money into those campaigns early to support candidates who later dropped out or who because of previous experience chose not to run. The Bush is ANGRY at the dems for stealing the PFD and they are ripe for the picking. It just behooves us to govern well. Governor Mike, now it’s your turn to turn Alaska around – the legislature will work WITH you now.

  • I think most of margins r bg enough to keep the red wave.

    If our precinct, Fishhook, was any indication, we have record conservative voting. I think people are beginning to awaken to the serious leftist danger to our nation and state. I also believe most of rest of USA would look similar if not meddled with.

  • Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., a former CIA officer who narrowly defeated her opponent in a moderate suburban district around Richmond, was blunt with her colleagues about the results.

    “From a congressional standpoint, it was a failure. It was not a success,” she said. “We lost members we shouldn’t have lost.”

    She said Democrats should watch GOP ads and the attacks leveled against members before deciding how to talk about issues.

    “We have to commit to not saying the words “defund the police” ever again,” she said. “We have to not use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again.”

    There it is……the Dems will be hiding their real agenda, that of turning America into another failed socialist country. If Biden wins the presidency, it will be Biden as Marx, and Harris will become our Stalin.

  • “Government employees” should not comprise an electoral class, and they shouldn’t exist in a form that allows this power bloc to have interests at odds with the rest of the citizens. This is the result of the natural expansion of the permanent bureaucracy, accelerated by rot and corruption The entire nature of “government employment” must be rethought, or we will constantly have the problem of growing tyranny. The interests of this group coupled with the government’s “monopoly on violence” is used to coerce ever-greater amounts of people’s labor and resources to themselves. Notice how it’s simply unthinkable to so many that “government” should do with less.

leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: