Alaska poll: Although Tshibaka is clear first choice of voters, Murkowski wins in ranked-choice scenario

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An Alaska Survey Research poll finds the ranked-choice voting scenario passed by Alaska voters in 2020 helps incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski in her reelection bid against Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka.

The Aug. 16 primary will have all candidates appearing on the same ballot, after Ballot Measure 2 took the Republican ballot away.

Ballot Measure 2 is a convoluted new voting method that was advanced by Murkowski surrogates in 2020 with millions of dollars of Outside money to convince voters to approve it. The top four candidates in each race will move to a ranked-choice general election ballot.

According to the Washington Post, the Alaska Survey Research poll presented a scenario in which four candidates — Murkowski, Tshibaka and Democrat Pat Chesbro and no-party candidate Dustin Darden — advance from the primary to the general election. The poll asked voters to list their first, second, and third choice for the Senate.

The poll found Tshibaka leads during the first round as voters’ top choice, ahead of Murkowski, 43% to 35%. The two other candidates on the race would trail them by at least 18%, the Post reported. Darden is the first to be eliminated under that scenario.

In the second round, Tshibaka would still lead Murkowski by nine points, and Chesbro is eliminated, with 20%.

But then comes the third round: The poll shows Murkowski gets the support that the two eliminated candidates received, moving her ahead of Tshibaka by four points, and allowing her the win — 52% to 48%.

So while Tshibaka is the favorite candidate among Alaskans, Murkowski wins by being the second choice of Democratic and independent voters in Alaska.

Alaska Survey Research, owned by Ivan Moore, is the only pollster doing surveys at this point that experiment with the ranked-choice voting method. His poll shows that 51% of those polled did not rank all the way down the choices in the Senate race. That makes the results of the poll especially unstable, since there are still many months to go until the Nov. 8 general election.

96 COMMENTS

    • That’s not true. It’s designed to give people the chance to vote for who they truly support, without the fear that their vote will not count. If they back a minority candidate, they still get a back-up vote.

    • No, it was designed by losers to allow them to win no matter what happens otherwise. Personally, I am a firm believer in Article IV, section 4, of the US Constitution: “The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government…” The federal republic, and the various states, was not created as a “democracy.” States that have “initiatives”, i.e.. voter override of the legislature, are not republics, they are democracies, which is contrary to the educated wisdom of the founders. Of course, Lisa Murkowski supported ranked choice. She dishonestly runs as a Republican but relies on Democrats, which is her aim, for election. Independents will vote as they do. Democrats will vote Republican when they know they are losing with the hope that a weak RINO like Murkowski will support their corrupt values. Without “ranked choice” Lisa would be, for sure, on her way to political oblivion.

  1. So the only way to stop this scenario from coming to fruition is to rank all candidates and put Murkowski dead last. Spread the word!

    • No don’t rank her at all put the same name down for each choice.don’t give anybody extra votes.

      • If you put in the same name for all of your choices, you’ve wasted your chance to have a back-up vote if your favorite doesn’t win.

    • If Rs are the majority, and they rank her dead last, then she can’t win. She only wins if enough “conservatives” buy that she is better than a declared D. Don’t let the left outsmart us with this system. We can make it work for us too! I’ll rank her behind the declared Democrat. If that person somehow gets in, then we’ll take care of it in six years on their voting record like we did Mark Begich. Alternatively, conservatives could split their votes in the primary and try to land 2 or 3 of the final 4. That would make it harder for liberals to use the ranked choice to put Lisa the Lib over the top. Maybe we could even drop their candidates before the final runoff.

    • Ranking Murkowski last still gives her a vote. People should ONLY rank people they want to see potentially win. If you only want Tshibaka to win then rank her #1 and stop. Don’t rank anyone else. Liberals got this confusing system passed because confusing voters is their ticket to winning Alaska.

      • I would tend to agree…but I heard some scuttlebutt about voters HAVE to rank each candidate or the ballot doesn’t count…or gets questioned or some such nonsense. It’s gonna be hard to get info out to all voters on exactly how to cast their ballot and no doubt there will be disagreement about how to best ensure Kelly.

      • It’s not that confusing, Alicia. We can figure it out. There is no built in advantage for liberals that I can see. It could make it easier for us to get people through whoever the establishment is backing to elect who we really want.

  2. Kelly Tshibaka is going to win. Murkowski has been pulling off her two-face tactics of telling Alaskans she will “fight” for Alaska while she actually satisfies outside interests and outside money by voting for federal bureaucrats to get into office that shut down the economy of Alaska by shutting down oil, timber, fishing, and lands any way she can.

    Get ready for the dirty tactics of Murky Murkowski leading up to the election. The FBI will probably throw out some false accusations as well. Murky and the FBI will accuse Kelly of being racist, anti-this or anti-that, she may even accuse Kelly of being an alien. Don’t believe any of it. GO GET ‘EM, KELLY TSHIBAKA !!!

    • Why do you think RINO Murkowski supported and pushed it? I was working at Fort Greely fall of 2020. Lisa showed up. She made a filmography of her visit for campaign purposes, but never came out and met any of the hundreds of us working on the project. She is definitely a very self-motivated person. In fact, the area she was visiting was cordoned off so none of us mere commoners could interact with her. I have written her many times but it’s rare I get a reply. I write Senator Dan Sullivan and he always replies. I used to write Representative Don Young, and he always replied. When I was working to get my wife to the US from the Philippines Don Young was very instrumental in helping me deal with the US Justice and State Departments. Lisa Murkowski = 0.

  3. Happy Porcaro?

    You pimped this crap hard for months alleging it would “shake things up”.

    So do earthquakes, with equally disastrous effects.

    The Princess Protection Plan has a working exactly as designed.

  4. “…while Tshibaka is the favorite candidate among Alaskans, Murkowski wins by being the second choice of Democratic and independent voters in Alaska.”
    .
    Is this the misinformation about elections voters aren’t supposed to believe, Lieutenant Governor Meyer?
    .
    (mustreadalaska.com/kevin-meyer-dont-believe-misinformation-about-elections/)
    .
    Throw in a little ballot harvesting here and there, Dominion vote-tabulation gear operating on proprietary software which no one’s going to “observe”, top it off with the fraud of ranked-choice voting, Murkowski’s a sure winner, or is that “misinformation”, too?

    • Absolutely, I have been sending e-mail after e-mail to Dunleavy how corrupt this election will be with RCV and the Dominion Machines. I have heard zero back. There is more than enough evidence to collect and throw out the Dominion Machines because you can hack them through wireless modems to alter the data. RCV is a joke and was engineered by Murkowski ex-staffers. We must not let them steal this election Alaska! Stay vigilant and do not let them push you around. See something, say something.

  5. We need to do away with this rank choice voting, it’s nothing pre than a scam to get RINOs re-elected. Murkowski the swamp dweller has to go.

    • And Murkowski’s Democrat friends. More than likely, her papa told her she needed Democrats for her RINO career.

  6. Lisa Murkowski could not care less what we think, and she KNOWS that the fixers that work alongside her beneath whoever pulls all the strings, are not only quite capable of taking care of this, but that they will. She knows nothing has been done to fix the broken election election system, and if any rule change of consequence in that regard were to appear as though it would be instituted, she would fight it, because she would have no choice.

  7. Reminds me of how Mark (not Nick) Begich changed the city election laws so he didn’t have to go to a runoff election, where he’d lost before.

    • I remember that, too, Dan. If I recall, Marky Mark was on the Assembly and voted for an ordinance that allowed him to walk into the mayor’s office with 45% of the vote.

  8. Didn’t the founders say one man one vote? That simplicity and honest tabulation is the only way to conduct an honest election without which there can be no republic.

    • Ranked Choice Voting gives one voter one vote. Its designed to narrow the race to two candidates resulting in the winner getting more than 50% of the votes. The fact many of those votes may be 2nd or 3rd ranked doesn’t mean anyone gets more than one vote. It merely means some voters 1st choice may be replaced by their 2nd or 3rd choice. What the system does, in effect, is remove the power from the political parties. Since Republicans were historically more powerful than Democrats in Alaska, the loss of power is greater for Republicans. The designers of Rank Choice knew this. Murkowski’s power base is not Republicans and conservatives but rather RINOs and Democrats. Murkowski is not the problem; she is merely the symptom of the problem… which is Republicans are a fractured party. Democrats are more tightly bound.

      • OK, W. What you’re saying makes sense. I know every voter only gets one vote at the end of the day, whether it happens to be their first or second choice, or even their third. They go round by round, and to get to over 50%, the candidates have to appeal to–that’s probably too strong a word, right?–get a good number of voters to put their name in for the second choice. Right now, top vote getters in a single round system often only get to about 30%. Right?

  9. No surprise. It will do what Lisa expected. The best way forward for Kelly’s supporters is to cast only one vote for her. I hope the public knows that they do not have to cast more than one vote if they don’t want to.
    There will be some Lisa supporters that will cast their first choice for Lisa but then their second choice for Kelly. Encourage those voters to do just that.
    Problem is that a lot of Dems will recognize that their candidate has no chance and rather have Kelly elected, will cast first choice ballots for Lisa, and probably the rest will cast votes for Lisa as their second choice. Do the math. Regrettably, I cannot see any way Lisa does not win.

    • Tshibaka is not supported by over 50% of the electorate, so that means someone else will, ultimately, be elected. I have not seen concrete, specific information supporting Tshibaka to be the best candidate [The NRA rating means nothing to me, I can think for myself. My Union used to try to tell me who to vote for, too.]. I am not impressed that a Harvard Law graduate has, on 2 occasions, chosen to ignore very simple and clear-cut AK state fishing regulations. Makes me wonder what else she would be willing to lie about.

  10. Alaska going to lead the country in election fraud. The new voting system needs to be shut down. It is an illegal attack on our Election system. Get rid of Vote by Mail except for Military that is deployed out of the country and get rid of the “electronics” and any form of connection to a “network”

  11. Due to millions of dollars of outside money spent to convince us that outside money was messing up our elections, we got this ranked-choice experiment foisted on us.
    Now we must play the game. Murkowski canNOT be your second choice She must be your LAST. Hear that? Your LAST vote counts, ironically.
    I’d just NOT vote for her. But in so doing, like most conservatives will do, I am afraid, we inadvertently boost her up by not canceling out Democrat votes for Murky.
    Keep this in mind. And correct me if I am wrong, folks.

    • There is a logical fallacy in Ranked Choice Voting with four finalist candidates. Before your 4th ranked choice ever comes into play, there are only two candidates left standing… and one of them is already the winner. There would need to be five candidates (rather than four) for your 4th ranked choice to ever be used. You only need to make three ranked choices.

  12. If it isn’t a Trafalgar Poll, it isn’t worth reporting. All other polls have been biased towards democrats by several points. Trafalgar has been consistently accurate.

  13. Lisa M and Kelly T Debates.This is a must! Otherwise we still don’t know what we are getting with Kelly.

      • Lucinda, Lisa speaks forked tongue quite well.
        Kelly has decidedly more intelligence than poor Lisa too, something you notice immediately when you meet her. Besides that, Kelly is a genuine and caring person. Lisa is not. Poor little princess Lisa, despite the nepotism and 20 years in office she still is nothing other than a spoiled brat.

  14. Rigged Choice Voting. I’m only going to vote for one candidate. No other candidates are stealing my vote.

    • Got news for you Skippy; Kelly Tshibaka could win with the 2nd rank votes of others. No candidate can “steal” any votes. A voter’s 2nd rank vote can only be used is if that voter’s 1st rank choice candidate is eliminated.

  15. It seems like the easy solution is just to rank Kelly Tshibaka for all 3 choices to turn the new system against itself. Let’s see how the dems like it when their new system is defeated. Spread the word! All three choices Kelly Tshibaka!

    • Kelly, this is the same as bullet voting. There is no need to fill for all three. If you only want to rank Kelly, you only need to do it once. – sd

      • Yes. And do NOT rank vote Lisa at all. Keep her ranking off of the ballot completely. We want this dynasty to come to a close so we can enjoy the rest of our lives in relative peace and quiet. Thank you!

      • Thank you so much, Madam Editor!
        .
        We were under the impression that ballots with only one “choice” will be discarded.
        .
        Just to be really sure, what you’re saying is that ballots with one vote for Kelly, and no votes for anyone else, will be counted as one vote for Kelly, yes?
        .
        If so, one wonders what the purpose of the other “choices” is actually meant to be, a genius form of ballot harvesting 2.0 comes to mind…

    • I looked at it pretty hard.
      I believe you can do that, but the site says your #1 ranking stays active through all phases.
      If you only rank the one.
      So, essentially the same.
      Butif you rank more than one, you dilute your vote in each round.
      So, is should be equal. Rank your Candidate #1,#2,#3 and #4…
      Or just #1
      As I understand from the Alaska Division of Elections.

    • Under rank choice your ballot would be spoiled and none of your votes would count. If you only want to rank one candidate then only rank them once. If you don’t want your vote going to a candidate then don’t rank that candidate.

  16. Lisa Murkowski will not be ranked on my ballot at all. I’d rather my vote be thrown out than make that vote count.

  17. Asterisk to the headline:
    The results of this poll also suggest that if it were a 2-way election between Kelly or Lisa, then Lisa would win.

  18. Rank only your favorite.
    Don’t rank any others.
    Your vote will stay with your favorite all the way through, unless eliminated.
    Anything else is roulette.
    And if you are like me, if the best choice does not win, then I am past caring.

  19. Voting for Kelly and Sarah! No one else…no second or third or fourth. One vote for each position.

  20. This is why I will never and have never vote for RINO Lisa Murkowski. Kelly will be my first and only vote between her and Lisa Murkowski and the Democrats. No second vote for Murkowski. My first vote will go to my friend and the actually most conservative candidate Nick Begich III and my second will go to Sarah Palin, who is the second best choice and at least strongly conservative in talking points and in many aspects just nationally, but certainly not in the state level, as her endorsement of the Walker/Mallot ticket proved and her fiscal decisions at the state level.
    Nick admitted his wrong vote back in 2015, who he did not even endorse or support. What about Palin’s for Bill Walker and Mallott? It wouldn’t be this difficult now, especially with all the damage Walker and Mallot did to our state. And to top that off why can only Nick give clear No answers to liberals on CRT and the HR4 federalization of voting that Palin can’t even give a solid no answer, (not a difficult answer for conservatives), because she did not know how she would vote on the HR4 just a couple weeks ago. Then, on top of all that, Palin even initially insinuates at the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce Forum, she would rank democrat Mary Petola second, who ranked Biden with a B- and than turn around and change her mind to ranking Nick second, just because she wants to reciprocate Nick’s vote – after Nick firmly announced his second vote would go to Sarah Palin, but not solidly, because Sarah like Mary Petola. How is that conservative?
    Palin maybe conservative in most talking points, but she definitely doesn’t have the backbone to say what she means and stick to it as a conservative, when she is face to face with leftist voters in the state of Alaska. However, I do not believe Palin would be a RINO in Congress, because her conservative popularity is very important to her and she wouldn’t want to disappoint conservatives on a nation wide level; that I am quite certain, but I would never trust her in a state level seat.

    • Very well stated! Nick will be great. Sarah’s just an opportunist. She jumped in the race AFTER Don passed away. Nick took on Don head-on in the primary. Plus; like Reagan and Trump, some of our best conservative voices have been former Democrats. I don’t trust Sarah, but I’ll consider ranking her #2.

  21. Well shucks.
    I took my best shot at Mike Porcaro who at this point is a staunch proponent of Ranked Choice Voting…
    And directed him here as well as the Heritage Foundation piece.
    He has read them both.
    Ranked choice is a trap, and Mike has bitten on it hook, line and sinker.
    His mind is made up.
    Well, that is unfortunate, however, he did allow me to state my opinion.
    And although he flatly rejected it, it is my hope that others will heed my words, and at least go read up, look at the historical outcomes… and understand how it works.
    You have to war game this to see how it works.
    Ranked choice robs the ends, and pays the middle.
    In our Senate race, the middle will be Murkowski.

    WARGAME
    Four Candidates.

    #1 gets 34%
    #2 Gets 30%
    #3 gets 25%
    #4 Gets 10%
    Second round consolidates, #4 gets kicked out.
    All #4 votes go to #3
    So, the standing is
    #1 gets 34%
    #2 gets 30%
    #3 gets 35%
    Game, set and match.
    #3 wins.

  22. At a recent Rally in Anchorage one of the speakers, who has been working on election integrity, made the statement that nearly 30,000 votes were stolen in Alaska from one candidate and given to the other candidate in the 2020 Presidential Election through the use of voting machines. This speaker has also on previous occasions talked about down ballots being affected as well. If this is true, is it possible that the same machines could have given us Rank Choice Voting?

  23. Murkowski will not be on my ballot. As President Trump said, she is worse than a Democrat. I would rather have a democrat get elected, and then give them the “Mark Begich Treatment”. One term and done.

  24. Why do we want the candidate Trump wants? He is an outsider telling Alaskans what to do. Aren’t we rugged individuals here? Why are we toeing any outside political parties line. NEITHER party republican or democrat has Alaska’s best interests in mind!

    • Plus J, Trump is a gangster mob boss, skilled liar and the worst leader ever in a million years.

      • Lucinda, despite your use of comma, I think you meant to say J Biden? Easily the absolute worst President ever, unless of course you are a member of the Communists Chinese Party 🥳 , are you?

  25. This proves the process is flawed. Look at the confusion. Intentional. Who does that? Those who want to jack up an election. If you believe its altruistic to save money/time….i have a used car to sell ya, only has 340,000 miles on it, runs great!

  26. Most Alaskans did not vote for RCV, they voted to support the part of the measure about campaign finance disclosure requirements. Since that part was tossed it follows that the entire measure is invalid. Alaskans did not get what they voted for. Also, each of the three measure parts should have been voted on individually, not doing so was against state law. RCV and jungle primaries are illegitimate and were achieved through deception. But where are you going to find an uncorrupt judge in Alaska to acknowledge and correct this fact?

  27. Kelly number 1; Dustin Darden number 2. Sure, it’s a bit of a learning curve but he believes unerringly in the US Constitution. Worse things have happened.

  28. If CA can have Pelosi, why can’t AK have Dustin Darden. Good choice! Mix it up a bit in CA.

  29. We all know this is why ranked choice voting was added to the ballot initiative along-side reasonable campaign limitations in the first place, to benefit RINOs. Murkowski will NOT rank anywhere on my ballot. Choose wisely my friends. She’s cashed in. She’s not a true conservative. Don’t give her the time of day.

  30. No no no. You don’t understand ranked choice voting. If Murkowski wins it is because a majority of people voted for her AND Chesbro, above Tshibaka. Their sentiment is clear.. any of those candidates are their preference over Tshibaka. So Mrukowski would be the right outcome.

    Just because someone is “leading” in the first round, that does NOT mean they were the preferred candidate by the majority of people. You have that completely wrong.

    This by the way is also how mis-information happens. When articles are written and published that are just incorrect or not understood, the author is to blame for so many people also misunderstanding.

    The best thing for Tshibaka supporters and Republicans to do in ranked choice votes, is to have more candidates running that clearly support their views. If there are more candidates like that and Tshibaka is not an outlier, then should would win. If she is an outlier, it doesn’t matter if she starts off with the “lead” if it is not a majority in the end after all rounds of voting.

    It is pretty simple, not confusing. Many people will blame the system (and write about it) if they don’t get their candidate. But that doesn’t mean it is a broken system.

    I hope people reconsider and give this the thought it deserves. The benefits of this method work for all people in the long run. In the end a voters positions need to be in the majority of all voters for your positions to win. Any child knows this.

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