AARP released polling numbers on Thursday that show Gov. Mike Dunleavy performing well with older voters, approaching landslide territory in the ranked-choice general election.
According to the results of the poll, Dunleavy could end up with 59% of the final-round vote count. But he also has a chance of winning the race outright, without going through the ranked choice process. The poll shows him at 49% of the expected vote, and he would need 50+1 to win outright in the first round.
U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka also looks good in the AARP poll. According to the polling, she and Sen. Lisa Murkowski end up in a tie at the third round of counting. Murkowski will inherit 77% of Pat Chesbro’s votes, and Tshibaka will inherit 29% of Buzz Kelley’s votes, with most Buzz Kelley voters not ranking anyone else.
The AARP results mirror the internal polling of the Tshibaka campaign, conducted by Cygnal.
In the congressional race, the AARP poll shows that Democrat Mary Peltola has the advantage in the final round of counting, reaching 53% of the final tally, with Sarah Palin at 47%, if Chris Bye and Nick Begich are eliminated.
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research. The polling companies interviewed 1,050 likely Alaska voters, including a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older between September 6-11, 2022. The interviews were conducted via landline (30%), cellphone (35%), and SMS-to-web (35%). The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3.
The polling results can be seen here:
