With 119,279 votes in, data shows majority of voter decisions were made early on congressional race


An analysis of the ballots being returned by voters in the congressional race shows that by mid-May, most of the expected ballots had already been received by the Division of Elections. The current push for “get out the vote” is for a smaller and smaller universe of expected ballots.

The number of ballots the Division of Election has in hand now stands at 119,279, with another data release expected late Thursday by the division.

About 3,000-4,000 mail-in ballots are expected by election analysts to be received per day Thursday through Saturday, with a total vote count looking to be about 135,000.

Saturday is the final day when ballots can be postmarked for the election that will decide which four candidates will compete to fill the temporary congressional seat for Alaska.

 The Division of Elections has received more than 60,000 undeliverable ballot envelopes from the post office and voters. That is more than 13% of the entire voter roll, and the returned mail will assist the Division of Elections in future purges of the voter roll.

The large population boroughs mailed in 1.7% (Anchorage) to 3.0% (Kenai) more ballots during the past three days.

The Kenai (22.9%) and Mat-Su (19.4%) Boroughs continue lead in total ballot turnouts.

Smaller hubs had ballot surges approaching 4%: Copper River, Petersburg and Denali.

Western Alaskan ballot flow is weakening:  North Slope Borough (0.4%) and Bethel (0.3%).

The most recent ballots trended from conservative areas, and the net Republican advantage is rose from 8.4% to 13.8% for the period.


  1. Some body should already be working on a plan of action to purge those 60,000 returned ballots. Our voter rolls must be cleaned up and this mail in ballots mess stopped and in person voting put back in place….

  2. For me, this is one of the problems with lengthy voting periods, mail in or otherwise. So much can change in a short period of time. People who vote earlier in the process may change their minds as more information comes to light. But it’s too late. The vote has been cast. This vs normal Election Day, where the majority of people vote on the same day based on essentially the same set of facts & information.

  3. How long will the leftists allow RCV to continue if the top four candidates are all conservatives?

  4. And some of you wonder why we’re in desperate trouble: Alaska is too lazy to vote.

  5. What a mess. I vote in person at Matsu borough building last week. But I found out about that via email from the party chair from my house district. Yesterday I text polled several people and none had votes. They forgot, or thought tomorrow the 11th was the day to vote, didn’t understand directions, too much hassle, so decided to skip it ……. The directions in the mail in ballot were abysmal. Very vague direction for voting in person and referred to it as absentee voting. No date information at all included in ballot information except June 11 deadline.

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