The Wall Street Journal editorial board ventured into Alaska’s sticky politics this week, opining on how Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system has devolved and how Republicans turned it back into what is a more conventional general election.
“Alaska was supposed to be a model for ranked-choice voting (RCV), but it looks more like a deceased canary in a proverbial coal mine. It’s a Republican state that in 2022 elected Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who won the first RCV race. Now more fun and games: Last week’s primary was intended to advance the top four candidates to November, yet the third-place finisher has quit. Alaskans will have a chance to repeal RCV this fall. No surprise if they say yes,” the newspaper writes, forgetting that the dark money trying to keep the system has already spent what appears to be over $1 million to convince voters to keep the ranking game going, and appears to have unlimited funding to preserve what the Wall Street Journal called “Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Voting Games.”
“Ms. Peltola was the top vote-getter, with 50.7%, in last Tuesday’s open primary. The GOP was split: Nick Begich, scion of an Alaska political family, took 26.6% of the vote. Lt. Gov.Nancy Dahlstrom had 20%. No other candidate came close, with the fourth-place finisher earning 0.6%. The way Alaska’s system is meant to work, those four would appear on November’s RCV ballot, and voters would rank them in order of preference,” the newspaper accurately described in its editorial.
But then, Dahlstrom dropped, so the Republican Party would not be divided between her and Begich.
As a result, the general election ballot will look more like a classic match between the candidates supported by their parties: Peltola for the Democrats and Begich for the Republicans, plus two unknowns.
“Republicans have learned from what happened last time, when they remained split. Looking only at first-choice votes in the 2022 special election that Ms. Peltola won, she had 40.2%. The GOP’s contenders, Sarah Palin and Mr. Begich, had 31.3% and 28.5%, respectively. Under the RCV rules, Mr. Begich was eliminated, and his supporters were reshuffled to their subsequent preferences. Enough of them didn’t like Ms. Palin that the victory went to Ms. Peltola, with 51.5%,” the newspaper accurately recounted.
“Strangely, though, this result was sensitive to the order of elimination, meaning that the final No. 1 depended on who was the initial No. 3. If Ms. Palin had been dropped instead, a strong majority of her ballots would have gone to Mr. Begich, who would have beaten Ms. Peltola,” the editorial continued.
That is how the writers tried to explain an even more complex concept: Begich was the condorcet winner in 2022, according to mathematicians who study statistics around voting. A concorcet winner is the candidate who more than half of all voters would support in a one-on-one, not a ranked-choice game.
“Nick Begich was eliminated in the first round despite being more broadly acceptable to the electorate than either of the other two candidates. More specifically, Begich was the Condorcet winner of this election: Based on the Cast Vote Record, he would have defeated each of the other two candidates in head-to-head contests, but he was eliminated in the first round of ballot counting due to receiving the fewest first-place votes,” writes Jeanne N. Clelland of the Department of Mathematics at the University of Colorado, Boulder, in this paper.
The Wall Street Journal wasn’t quite able to wrap its head around the math, but the writers explained it well enough:
“Not only that, he’d have won about 52.5%, a bigger victory than Ms. Peltola’s ranked-choice majority. Doesn’t that seem . . . odd? What if some Democrats ranked Ms. Palin first on their ballots to ensure that the most polarizing GOP opponent made the final round?”
The Dahlstrom withdrawal completely upended ranked-choice voting in the congressional race. So did the withdrawals of Sharon Jackson and Ken McCarty from the Senate Seat L contest, leaving room for Jared Goecker to take on the leading false-flag Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick.
“Whatever the formal rules say about a top-four competition, Republicans and Democrats could set a party expectation that only one major contender from their side will stick around for the general election. Before last week’s primary, Mr. Begich had pledged to quit if he came in third,” the newspaper said adding that if the “parties can keep the discipline shown by Ms. Dahlstrom, the final RCV vote might come to resemble a traditional head-to-head election, except with more confusing rules and no clarifying partisan primary debates.”
The Democrats in Alaska have already shown that discipline by not allowing more than one Democrat candidate in a race, which saves them the hassle of having donor dollars, volunteers, and voter enthusiasm diluted. The ranked-choice voting general election was designed for a party that has control over its voters.
Now, Alaska Republicans are getting wise to the ranked-choice game. The Wall Street Journal has noticed.
I see no evidence the AKGOP learned anything last time.
Got news Masked, Dahlstrom dropped out… maybe you didn’t hear. Its a clear indication her backers and advisors learned something…. albeit a day late and a dollar short for 2022. Moreover, the Republicans are clearly slow learners.
You can tell this was written by someone who did little to actually investigate the circumstances.
-an alleged conservative radio host pimped RVC for the sleaziest person in Alaska.
-despite all his bravado, Trump put little to no money behind Kelly or Sarah.
-WSJ has no way of knowing how toxic the name Begich can be to many of us.
-they have no way of knowing how stunningly inept the AKGOP is.
And RVC, sadly, is a long way from dead.
Not a l l true. It was McConnell who withheld gop funds from Kelly and not Trump.
MA, you are just a ray of sunlight here. Question, who’s worse, Peltola, an easy yes vote for all things dem, or Begich whom you assume may run to the dems and pull a Murkowski move? If Begich is “toxic” for us, what is Peltola? The simple fact that in one evolution Republicans have matched and called the dems, and that this is noticed on the national stage which is aimed at all states considering RCV is frankly awesome. For all of your -itching here, you have offered nothing to help improve anything. If that’s the best you can do, you should take a pause from spewing your venom. – Cheers
“…how toxic the name Begich can be to many of us…”
I keep hearing this and I wonder how people get this narrow.
We don’t for anyone named “Bill (Walker)”, or “Ethan” or “Steve (Cowper)” anymore? We only vote for someone named “Jay”, or “Ted” or “Don”?
If you’re upset by his last name go talk to the man. I know both him and Mark and while both are “nice people”, I’m all about Nicks politics; Marks, not so much.
Judge a person by his actions, not by someone else’s.
The Wall Street Journal should contact MRAK for the answer to this perplexing question. Then, the WSJ should examine all of the comments posted at MRAK regarding the question. The answer will become self evident.
They didn’t mention the special primary back in ’22 when Palin finished 1st, Dr. Al Gross second, Peltola 3rd, Begich 4th … and then the Democrats knifed Al Gross and he mysteriously dropped out. FF a few months and we have Rep Peltola.
Exactly.
No mystery of Gross dropping out. The Democrats warned him: either dropout, or we release the bear.
Are you implying being a Democrat contender has serious health implications such as their republican opponents?
I once heard about a guy that got an earful while speaking out against his Democrat opponent….
Begich was second in the special primary. Gross was third. Peltola was 4th.
I can’t find my medication. Anybody need a hunting partner? I’m down to none. Help!
If RCV is so great, why did Peltola run unopposed? Dems claim RCV “supercharges” your vote. Also, the guy who voices the pro RCV campaign is the same guy who does Peltola’s ad so it’s easy to see what’s going on.
Answer: discipline among the ranks.
Democrats are correct when they claim it “superchages” your vote.
It quite simply recalculates your vote to “their” horse when they recount the votes until they get the desired results.
Murkowski and Mary are the best example…:)
Keep this energy up Alaska! We know the evil is working hard to keep RCV. We need to keep working hard to get rid of it and remove Peltola from her throne.
“……..Republicans have learned from what happened last time……..”
That remains to be established. We’ll see on November 5th.
“……….The GOP was split………”
The GOP IS split, and split deeply, between conservatives and moderates (RINOs). I don’t see re-unity coming any time soon. In fact, I see the disunity exploding again, and that will intensify if/when Trump is re-elected.
Amazing work and journalism. Providing multiple sources, research papers, and great information.
Suzanne, Must Read Alaska, and Alaskans should be proud of reporting like this.
~Phil Izon
A miracle would have happened if it was done without rank choice voting and all those that didn’t like Sarah would have magically written in Nick? Sarah would have been the Republican nominee. She has a left a distasteful stench on the GOP.
AFF, Sarah, voters had a 60% negative opinion according to polls taken during the race. It would appear from final vote tally’s the polls were accurate.
It’s all water under the bridge now, let us lock arms together and resolve to replace the disaster named Mary.
When first place candidates are dropping to game the system, when second place candidates are dropping to game the system, when third place candidates are dropping to game the system it’s abundantly clear that the system is broken. Rank voting isn’t voting it’s the demolition of a founding principle of this country. We now have a presidential candidate who hasn’t received a single vote to hold elected office since 2016, yet she’s held office the entire time…let that sink in. There are state offices that the candidates have been selected not by voters, but by unelected spinsters pulling political strings. We need to go back to actual primaries and counting votes. RCV is a completely undemocratic sham.
“Final discipline shown by Nancy Dahlstrom… ”
The Wall Street Journal’s opinion disregards the efforts that quite visibly shows another reason. Dahlstrom was being casted as a spoiler and a lazy, selfish woman who was going to be fully outed for the miserable Alaska official that she really is. Her decision was based on a concerted effort by voters who could see that Dahlstrom would be a direct impedence to a Republican victory due to Governor Mike Dunleavy’s miscalculations about political power.
Maybe we should do what most civilized countries do – giving whoever gets the most votes the win. Try this at the national level also.
That really isn’t what most European parliaments do. Quite often the coalition is fronted by the leader of a party that didn’t even achieve 40 percent of the vote. The EU itself is even more disingenuous.
We are a constitutional republic, contrary to what leftists believe. The Democratic Party doesn’t even believe in democracy, evidenced by the current presidential candidate. Why would we want to do what “most civilized countries do” when most civilized countries are worse off than we are? I’ll stick with our current form of representative government, flawed as it is, and I’m sure many of those most civilized countries would be happy to have you.
So, you are advocating that whoever wins New York and California wins the election?
The electoral college is DEI for hicks
Yep you are correct. It gives EVERY American a chance to weigh in, instead of only snooty lemming coastal dwellers. It’s a great idea and guarantees that we remain the United States, not becomes the communist empires of CA and NY!
Even the “uncivilized” nations understand that concept, and are capable of making it happen. 3rd world hell holes have a more secure voting system than the USA. (Note that I said voting system, not election system. Just because they can enforce one person, one vote on one day does not mean the election is not corrupt.)
Sure even if it includes millions of imported illegal aliens with free handouts and ballot dropboxes without ID.
Being a long term resident of Chugiak I want to thank Ms Jackson and Mr McCarty for bowing out to make the permanent retirement a surer thing. In my view this is the most important state legislative race, in that Kelly Merrick is a two time liar who handed the majority to Democrats, even though they were in the actual minority. This directly led to granting the individual Alaskan’s share of mineral royalties to state employee pensions forever.
Chugiak-Peters Creek- Eagle River honor Mr McCarty and Ms Jackson’s unselfishness by electing Goecker and eliminating Merrick from government.
Lets call it Racist Choice Voting. White votes are more likely to be counted. In rural Alaska, in some districts, one out of every six ballots was tossed because this system was too confusing. The dark money backing this wreched system doesn’t care about how many native votes get tossed.
That must be why the Alaska Federation of Natives issued a resolution in favor of keeping open primaries and RCV? ‘https://www.nativefederation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-AFN-Convention-Resolution.pdf
See Resolution 23-26, ENDORSING PRESERVATION OF ALASKA’S OPEN PRIMARY AND RANKED CHOICE VOTING ELECTION SYSTEM
Lets call it Racist Choice Voting. White votes are more likely to be counted. In rural Alaska, in some districts, one out of every six ballots was tossed because this system was too confusing. The dark money backing this wreched system doesn’t care about how many native votes get tossed.
It appears that none of the MRAK readers know where WSJ’s Kim Strassel lives.
Yoiiii!!! I had to look that up.
Quit looking in the rearview mirror and start working to make sure Nick gets elected. Get to know more about him and spread the word and donate to his campaign if you can
Palin ducked in (late), split the vote, then went back to wherever she came from. Palin is the reason we have Peltola. I hope she stays permanently gone this time. Remember: anyone who ran Alaska as badly as she did when governor, or would be potential vice president to a RINO like McCain is no true conservative; her true identity is narcissist.
Short memory. Palin won the special election primary, finished 2nd in the special general. Nick finished second and then third. In the regular primary and then the general, Palin finished 2nd to Peltola in both.
Nick lost to Sarah 4 times. Keeps his record intact, he has never won an election of any kind.
Had he withdrawn 2 years ago, Palin would be running for re-election.
Weren’t we sold on Voting Machines based on us getting Quick, Accurate, and easily auditable results? Why are we waiting for results for days, weeks or months now that Voting Machines are the norm? Why haven’t we taken any meaningful action to clean the Voter Rolls? Why is Mary Petola filling a seat in Congress in a Red State? THAT’S RANK!
Nancy Dahlstrom should have plenty of time now to fix and clean voter rolls.
Wonderful idea!
The bottom line here is that journalists are noting what a bottom-feeder system Ranked Choice Voting is. Always was. And always will be. When you cannot learn the results of an election by the next morning, something is wrong. Something big. The sooner Alaskans reject RCV the better. I’m tired of radio ads telling me that I’m too stupid to understand how wonderful RCV is. RCV has got to go. Next: give Kendall a good political thrashing and run his sorry bahookie out of town.
I think they just don’t want to show results prior to the last ballot coming in and being counted. There’s nothing inherent to RCV that prevents tabulating the result quickly. And it doesn’t take RCV not to be able to know the final results right away. I think they should go ahead and run the tabulation, knowing it might change as the last ballots come in. That could confuse or annoy people, which is maybe why they don’t do it.
I blame conservative outlets (including this site) for spending the past 4 years telling their audiences that they are too stupid to understand RCV. The democrats, on the other hand, educated their voters.
As stupid as rank voting is, mathematically speaking you only need to count to three as there is no way possible the fourth person would ever be counted, most people can count to three. For the majority of elections being able to count to two would suffice.
“Begich was the Condorcet winner in 2022, according to mathematicians who study statistics around voting.”
Not sure what the point of this is. As intuitive as expecting the winner of an election to be the Condorcet winner seems to be, it comes with costs:
– There isn’t always a Condorcet winner, so there has to be some additional method to resolve the situation when there isn’t.
– Condorcet methods suffer from the same problems as all ranking and rating methods other than RCV/Instant Runoff: stating a preference other than your first choice can harm the chances of your first choice. This can’t happen in RCV because only one ranking on a ballot is considered at a time. In the other systems, all the rankings or ratings are considered all at once.