Alaska Survey Research’s poll from Oct 8-9 shows that Donald Trump could win Alaska with as much as 54.1% of the vote — at least among super-voters, specifically those most likely to actually vote by Nov. 5.
Trump won Alaska in 2016 with 51.28% of the vote, and again in 2020 with 52.83% of the vote. This could be his best year yet for the Alaska voters, if the recent poll is any gauge.
The survey question to a group of super-voters was: If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. advanced to the elimination round, the results were:
- Kamala Harris: 42.9%
- Donald Trump 49.8%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 7.4%
Then for the second elimination round in the ranked-choice voting scheme, the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters picked Trump over Harris and the final result was:
- Harris: 45.9%
- Trump: 54.1%
Of course, super-voters are not the only ones who will cast their ballots, and so the favorability ratings of the candidates among all likely voters (including but not just super-voters) gives another perspective.
In a question to 1,434 panelists, ASR asked was if they had a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or negative (or no view) of Trump. Trump is overall seen slightly negatively by the participants in Alaska. But when it came time to vote, they still picked him over Harris, who Alaska voters see even more negatively.
- Harris was seen somewhat negatively by 12.2% She was seen very negatively by 45.2%, for a total of 67.4% negative.
Only 10.3% of Alaskans who took the survey see Harris very positively, and 18.2% see her somewhat positively, for a total of 28.5% positive. Another 3.5% had no opinion of her at all.
When it comes to rating positive and negative for Trump, feelings were strong:
Trump was seen very negatively by 43.1% and somewhat negatively by 7.9%, for 49% total in the negative column. He did better than Harris in this category.
Trump was rated very positively by 27.5% and somewhat positively by 18.8%, for a total positive of 46.3%. He also did better than Harris in this category.
Trump is in better shape going into the election in Alaska than than Harris, according to these results.
An interesting side note on the survey is that Alaska Survey Research shows Harris winning in Southeast Alaska (Harris – 55.8% to Trump – 44.2%); winning in rural Alaska (Harris – 52.1% to Trump – 47.9%); losing in Southcentral Alaska (Harris – 30.5% to Trump – 69.5%); winning in Anchorage (Harris – 51.8% to Trump – 48.2%); and losing in Fairbanks (Harris – 48.9% to Trump – 51.1%).
The gender breakdown of the positive and negative opinions of Harris, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., JD Vance, and Tim Walz were telling:
Men:
- Trump was seen positively by 50.9% and negatively by 47%.
- Harris was seen positively by 41.5% and negatively by 53.3%.
- Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 43% and negatively by 46.1%.
- Vance was seen positively by 45.8% and negatively by 42.4%
- Walz was seen positively by 36.4% and negatively by 49%.
Women:
- Trump was seen positively by 41.9% and negatively by 54.6%.
- Harris was seen positively by 41.5% and negatively by 53.3%.
- Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 37.7% and negatively by 36.4%.
- Vance was seen positively by 34% and negatively by 41.2%.
- Walz was seen positively by 34.9% and negatively by 32.1%.
For people who chose “other” as a gender:
- Trump was seen positively by 14.8% and negatively by 85.2%.
- Harris was seen positively by 63.5% and negatively by 36.5%.
- Kennedy Jr. was seen positively by 4.7% (not a typo) and negatively by 57.5%.
- Vance was seen positively by 4.7% and negatively by 77.4%.
- Walz was seen positively by 49.3% and negatively by 23.7%.
The “other” gender totaled just 1.7% of the poll, only about 24 people. Sample sizes this small are difficult to trust.
Important to the survey context is that in 2020, Alaska Survey Research found in its Oct. 6 poll of 676 likely voters that 46% were likely to vote for Biden and 50% said they would pick Trump. That was close but Trump outperformed in the election in Alaska. He won Alaska with nearly 53% of the vote that year, while Biden received less than 43% of the Alaskan vote.
The Alaska Survey Research polls typically list to the left. This particular poll appears to lean heavily toward college-educated Alaskans, which would skew the results toward the liberal side.
