DEPT OF REVENUE SPRING 2018 REVENUE FORECAST
The spring revenue forecast is out from the Department of Revenue today. On the whole, the state’s revenue picture is brightening a bit.
The State’s revenue forecast includes educated guesses for oil prices, oil production, and state revenue.
Unrestricted General Fund revenue is now forecast to be $2.3 billion in both FY 2018 (the year that ends June 30) and FY 2019 (the year that begins July 1). That’s money that will go into the General Fund and will be available for spending by the State for services. It represents an increase in expected funds of $468 million over two fiscal years.
The revenue forecast is driven by expected North Slope oil production averaging 521,800 barrels per day in FY 2018 and 526,600 barrels per day in FY 2019. This is essentially flat since the previous oil production forecast.
Alaska North Slope oil prices are forecast to average $61 per barrel for FY 2018 and $63 per barrel for FY 2019. Last fall, the price was expected to be $56 for 2018 and $57 for 2019. Today’s ANS price is $65.
“Expected revenue has increased approximately $125M -$250M per year across the forecast period. This is good news for all Alaskans. Unfortunately, even after this additional revenue, Alaska continues to face a budget deficit in excess of $2.3 billion. The Administration will continue to work with the Legislature to address the fiscal gap during this legislative session,” said Sheldon Fisher, commissioner of Revenue.
The spring 2018 revenue forecast is at the Department’s website, at www.tax.alaska.gov.