Breaking: 218? Raw data released by Division of Elections shows Begich will win in after ballots ranked

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Nick and Dharna Begich

Based on data released by the Alaska Division of Elections, of votes that have been cast in the Alaska congressional race, after ranking, Nick Begich will win with 53% of the vote over Rep. Mary Peltola.

This is according to an independent analysis by @cinyc9, a conservative account at X.com that analyzes election data. Here is the result of the Round 4 of ranking:

Must Read Alaska filed a public records request for this data on Friday, and the Division of Elections was responsive, releasing it to the public on Monday so all would have access to the data files.

CINYC was the first to run the analysis of the Division of Elections numbers.

There is no guessing on these numbers, as these are votes the division has in hand. We are expecting another set of ballots to be counted on Tuesday. Here are the Round 1-3 vote distributions, according to this analysis:

Screenshot

Eric Hafner, in this vote universe, has 2,297 votes, and 833 were exhausted with no second choice, nine were eliminated for over-voting (voted Hafner twice). Begich gained 102 of the available votes and Peltola gained 827 of these votes. Hafner is a federal prisoner who is a Democrat.

When John Wayne Howe was eliminated, it was split. Democrat strategist Jim Lottsfeldt had spent $4 million to try to convince conservative Alaskans to only vote for Howe and not Begich. He convinced 4,263 to throw their votes away on Howe. Begich received 3,414 of the Howe second votes. Peltola got 1,879 of Howe’s second votes.

Must Read Alaska’s story last week looked at the numbers based on assumptions, and these assumptions are lining up with the actual numbers released by the Division on Monday. This story will be updated.

Based on this analysis, Nick Begich would make the 218th congressional representative, securing the Republican majority in the U.S. House.

56 COMMENTS

  1. Awesome! Thanks for doing this Suzanne. Please don’t forget that we need to push our reluctant legislators to tackle Division of Elections reform, APOC reform or elimination, and probably Lieutenant governor admonishment first thing before this transition continues.

  2. Time to pack your bags, Mary! Your time as the Alaska Congresswoman at-Large is mercifully over. You were just another Rank Choice Voting anomaly. You were, however, extremely effective in representing the democrat party interests by your various votes. The people of Alaska, not so much.

    So congratulations to Nick Begich. Thank you for running a second time and persevering. You worked extremely hard to meet and listen to people during your campaign. You will put Alaska first as our Congressman.

  3. Congratulations Nick Begich! Freedom Caucus would be a great choice. Please don’t allow Mike Johnson to retain the Speakership. Johnson is a traitor.

    • Please identify someone who is not a traitor in your book. And explaining why someone is, or is not, a traitor is always helpful.

      (Yeah, Reagan was obviously a traitor for selecting globalist George H.W. Bush as his Vice President. Obviously)

      • Johnson had the ability to hold the line and shut down the border, end lawfare against Trump, release J6 tapes, end funding of Ukraine war, etc. Most of which he said he would do. Once he had the Speakership he did none of it. Pretty simple, he needs to go. Career politicians who only pay lip service to important issues are the reason why this country is such a mess.

        • I have seen this a number of times over the years, when folks believe a presiding officer has the unilateral power to order results or block legislation. In practice, and I have been really close to this in the past, presiding officers can only go as far as their caucus allows. And it gets much more complicated when dealing with another legislative body run by the other party. Yeah, it is quite possible to block absolutely everything. And then nothing is done. It seems so noble and high-principled, but I cannot think of a single presiding officer who would consider that to be an accomplishment.

          How would Speaker Johnson shut down the border? Would a bill have to be passed to do that? (Answer: yes). (What about the Senate?). How would the Speaker end lawfare? Would legislation be required? What would it say? The J6 info is an interesting question. And I wish the Ukraine appropriations would not have passed as well.

          Speaker Johnson is the most conservative Speaker in the last seventy-five years, if not longer. He is a decent and moral man. He is not a traitor.

          The legislative process is never black and white; compromise always is required and occurs. In my view Mike Johnson is an outstanding Speaker.

    • She shops at Safeway now that she stopped the merger.
      Prominence Point is her real home.
      Bethel was just a way to make the natives think she was a village gal but that didnt play out so well now did it?

  4. Think. If MRAK had not demanded access to the data (likely under FOIA) the Division would have withheld it until November 20, 2024. Ask yourself, why? The only logical reason is to allow themselves time to cheat. Ask the Division to explain. The last time, when Peltola supposedly won, the division gave us the incredibly unreasonable explanation, “the public would not understand the numbers so we must wait.” The apparent rat’s nest of tyranny in the Division of Elections needs to be cleaned out.

  5. After reading this article. I’m reminded of all the out-of-state money paid for advertising telling how RCV was so easy. Even a child could do it.
    1 person = vote was to difficult I guess

      • yeah, the left-wing nut dems are so much smarter!
        just look at all the news about cry rooms at work & school!
        women whose husbands/boyfriends voted for Trump to be cut-off by them!
        Trump 312 & harris 226

        • Let unpack my above comment for you. In the 2022 US House election the Dems forced their extra candidate, Gross, to resign in order to consolidate their votes for Peltola. The Republicans were unable to do the same with Palin and Begich. Therefore, Peltola won and represented Alaska to a fault for the last two years. In that case, and many similar cases in Alaska, the Democrats show superior tactical intelligence. Republicans finally figured it out for 2024 and persuaded Dahstrom to back out. Slow learners.

        • Let me unpack my above comment for you. In the 2022 US House election the Dems forced their extra candidate, Gross, to resign in order to consolidate their votes for Peltola. The Republicans were unable to do the same with Palin and Begich. Therefore, Peltola won and represented Alaska to a fault for the last two years. In that case, and many similar cases in Alaska, the Democrats show superior tactical intelligence. Republicans finally figured it out for 2024 and persuaded Dahstrom to back out. Slow learners.

  6. Already 219 per DecisionDeskHQ (don’t bother ever checking anywhere but there). Best site available.

    So Nick 220, one more almost sure thing in CA, plus a few more very close.

    The House has a bit of a RINO buffer, just like the Senate is Murk and Collins proofed.

      • Not at all. Her District is hard Red. The special election will get a new, younger MAGA repub in to replace her and gain exposure and experience.

        Trump is thinking about generational change. Only pull from sure-thing House Districts and Senators from solid GOP states.

        Stefanik also gets exposure and in 2 or 4 years can run for US Senator from NY and flip.that seat Red.

        • I, too, am presuming they have thought that through and have a strategy for replacing her (and in terms of generational change, she is only 40 years old.) – sd

      • Nope. She is from a deep Red district.

        No Reptesentive will be pulled from any District that is not a sure thing replacement.

        Just like no Senator will be pulled from a state with a sure-thing Guv appointment or spacial election.

        Trumo.is making generational changes. He and his team are fully aware of the details.

      • Still generational. She goes on to Senate, the House seat stays as long or longer than she would have held it.

        It’s all about bench depth. The Dems have nothing, all their younger crowd are poison now.

      • Maybe they can elect someone who doesn’t vote to fund Ukraine like Elise has done. She was a terrible pick for Trump but glad she’s out of the house.

  7. What a stupid long way to vote.
    One person one vote.
    Keep the politicians away from the vote and we won’t have this mess again.
    Good day poor Scotty.

  8. For instance, if Marco gets Sec State, Desantis appoints a solid up and comer who is as close to the legal Senate minimum as possible. They get exposure and experience to run in 6 years, keeping the seat with the incumbant benefit, and setting them up for Gov or President a decade from now.

    The Dems have zero bench, Trump is making the MAGA GOP bench deeper.

    He wants a Legacy.

  9. It will be interesting to see how many ballots arrive in the next couple days, absentee ballots are allowed 10 days to arrive if sent in state and 15 if coming from overseas. There have been reports of ballot harvesting occuring overseas. Now that there is a know quantity of just how many ballots are needed for Peltola, will the remaining absentee ballots have a split different than what has already been recorded?

  10. Suzanne, thank you for sharing the tabulation process of each round. This is the most ridiculous voting process ever. I know that Phil Izon said that it looks promising that our repeal effort will succeed, but after all of the crap that the evil has pulled, I will not celebrate a victory on Ballot measure 2 until I see it.

  11. Um, about that line, “We are expecting another set of ballots to be counted on Tuesday.” According to ADN, “there are at least 61,000 ballots [yet] to be counted.”
    You don’t think 20% of the overall vote count can have an effect?

  12. Why on division election website it has Begich with 125,222 Peltola 115,089. But in this article and data presented it has Begich at 121,622 and Peltola 108,417? I guess the question is which data is more accurate???

  13. Except for all the horrible phony vax mandates costing people’s jobs and military careers it is actually working out in the nations best interest to have a much wiser Trump at the helm this time around with more common sense in the house of reps and Senate.
    Much smoother sailing than with a weaponized FBI DOJ and just about every other federal agency influenced by the Obidens.

    Not only a better 4 years ahead but with a much better idea where the Obama/Obiden/Oharris dirt road was taking us.

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