Based on data released by the Alaska Division of Elections, of votes that have been cast in the Alaska congressional race, after ranking, Nick Begich will win with 53% of the vote over Rep. Mary Peltola.
This is according to an independent analysis by @cinyc9, a conservative account at X.com that analyzes election data. Here is the result of the Round 4 of ranking:
Must Read Alaska filed a public records request for this data on Friday, and the Division of Elections was responsive, releasing it to the public on Monday so all would have access to the data files.
CINYC was the first to run the analysis of the Division of Elections numbers.
There is no guessing on these numbers, as these are votes the division has in hand. We are expecting another set of ballots to be counted on Tuesday. Here are the Round 1-3 vote distributions, according to this analysis:
Eric Hafner, in this vote universe, has 2,297 votes, and 833 were exhausted with no second choice, nine were eliminated for over-voting (voted Hafner twice). Begich gained 102 of the available votes and Peltola gained 827 of these votes. Hafner is a federal prisoner who is a Democrat.
When John Wayne Howe was eliminated, it was split. Democrat strategist Jim Lottsfeldt had spent $4 million to try to convince conservative Alaskans to only vote for Howe and not Begich. He convinced 4,263 to throw their votes away on Howe. Begich received 3,414 of the Howe second votes. Peltola got 1,879 of Howe’s second votes.
Must Read Alaska’s story last week looked at the numbers based on assumptions, and these assumptions are lining up with the actual numbers released by the Division on Monday. This story will be updated.
Based on this analysis, Nick Begich would make the 218th congressional representative, securing the Republican majority in the U.S. House.
