Poll: Dunleavy leads pack of four in ranked choice voting

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A poll conducted this week by Alaska Survey Research shows that Alaska Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is in a strong position going into the Nov. 8 general election. Early voting begins on Oct. 24.

Some 49% of Alaskans surveyed last week rate Dunleavy positively; 46.5% rate him negatively. The rest said they were neutral, and only one of the 1,403 survey participants said he/she didn’t know who Dunleavy is.

The positive rating for Democrat Les Gara is 31%, and his negative rating is nearly 25%. But his biggest problem is that 23% of likely Alaska voters don’t know who he is.

Bill Walker, the former governor who left the Republican Party and became a leftist undeclared candidate many years ago, has an approval rating of 38.4% and a disapproval rating of 43%. Just 5.6% of those answering the survey didn’t know who Walker is.

Charlie Pierce, a Republican from Sterling, has a high “who” factor, with 44% not knowing who he is.

According to the survey results, Dunleavy would win the first round of ranked-choice voting with 43.6% of the vote, not enough to win outright. Democrat Les Gara gets 28.3% and Bill Walker has just 21.2%,

For the second round, Charlie Pierce would have been eliminated and the Dunleavy/Dahlstrom ticket would be the beneficiary of most of those voters, ending up with 48.2%, while Gara would tick up to 29.1%, and Walker ticks up to 22.7.

For the third round, the Walker ticket would be eliminated, and most of those votes would go to Gara, but there would not be enough for Gara to overtake Dunleavy: Dunleavy and running mate Nancy Dahlstrom would win with 53.4%, to Gara’s 46.6%.

Walker has instructed his voters to vote for the Democrat ticket second, and at least in this survey, most of them are inclined to do so. Gara voters will likely return the favor and rank Walker second on their ballot. Both Walker and Gara support abortion on demand, and they’re both supported by dark money through the Alaska Center; both have been endorsed.

Who were the people who took the survey? About 1,400 people ages 18 and above who are likely Alaska voters. The mean age was 46 years old, while the average age of Alaskans is about 34.6. In 2020, 47.2% of these survey takers voted for Donald Trump for president, and 38% voted for Joe Biden. The actual number of Alaska voters who chose Trump in 2020 was 53%, with Biden getting 43% of the vote.

The most recent polling aggregate for approval/disapproval of Biden’s performance shows that 42.3% of Alaskans approve of him, and 54.6% disapprove of him, within the margin of error range reflecting the opinions of those who took the Alaska Survey Research Survey.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Democrats will fix this. Either Walker or Gara will drop out and we’ll have the same scenario that allowed Peltola to take the win. I’m thinking Gara will drop out and Walker will win because of the greater name recognition.

  2. Go Big Mike! You got six votes from our family.
    Teach that no-good Bill Walker his final lesson, that thieves and their little Charlatan lapdogs (Scott Kendall) don’t do well with the public when they cheat and steal and abuse the legal system. Send them both out to pasture.

  3. > For the second round, Charlie Pierce would have been eliminated and the Dunleavy/Dahlstrom ticket would be the beneficiary of most of those voters,

    This assumes Pierce voters actually rate a second choice. We learned in the special election a significant number of voters do not.

  4. I am befuddled after reading the story above. I admit to having serious doubts about the veracity of the poll in the story. I’ve lived in Alaska for 65 years and find it hard to believe that 4 out of 10 of my countrymen are deluded enough to approve of old Poop Pants Joe, the father of Hunter the famous artist. It occurs to me that if this poll is accurate we better start doubling down on solving Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. We should also begin immediately removing Fluoride from our drinking water and start limiting THC levels in POT back to the old 5 finger bag, 1970’s Pipeline era levels. I’m certain that readers of this column will have other suggestions how we can help the deluded 40% back into the fold.
    Wait, isn’t 40% also Sarah Palin’s approval rating? Never mind, it’s hopeless. We are so doomed.

  5. In case you haven’t noticed, Dunleavey has refused to attend or participate in any of the numerous debates held over the past few months. He obviously doesn’t want attention focused on his horrible record. During his administration, Alaska has had the worst performing economy in the country. He is ruining our university system and our ferry system. Gas prices in Alaska are higher than anywhere else in the country, even though we supply oil to the west coast and refine gasoline in refineries located in Alaska, and oil companies are making billions in profits from oil extracted here, yet he refuses to consider increasing taxes on oil producers. He is destroying our economy, our education system and our livelihoods. He also wants to amend our constitution to ban all abortions, no wonder he won’t debate the other candidates for governor.

    • You are out to lunch, Rick. Are you another one of those out of work union guys, or a government worker? Either way, your little rant about Dunleavy might appease Democrats, but not the majority of Alaskans. Dunleavy is about to kick a$$. That means, a landslide win.

  6. The reason Alaska has had the worst performing economy is because joe, ‘Brandon’, biden shut every economic building industry down. That’s ‘DOWN’!!! The oil and gas industry, the mining and the fishing. If ya can’t drill, mine or fish, how is a person going to earn a living? Oh!! The cannabis industry. You’ll get rich quick with that one. As far as refusing to increase taxes on the oil industries, why would anyone want to kill the golden goose? I think you would rick.

  7. Really? Because Alaska’s economy was in the toilet before Biden was elected. The conservative mythology that cutting taxes and cutting spending will lead to job creation and growth has been disproven multiple times. Dunleavey’s policies have done nothing but damage the future of our state. But all some people seem to care about is the size of their PFD. They’ll happily take their thirty pieces of silver while oil companies reap massive profits due to our low oil taxes, and the governor destroys our university and our ferry system. Don’t be surprised when your kids say goodbye and leave Alaska when they grow up. They’ll be heading to Seattle, Portland, California or Texas, where they can have a successful career in the 21st century.

  8. Any poll does not take into the consideration that Mike is opposed by TWO candidates and the totals for both Walker and Gara must be added together. One law firm has a hand in both campaigns – the law firm that Walker works for. This was already the case for why Alaskans were fooled into voting for ranked voting. Neither Walker nor Gara could beat Dunleavy on their own. So unite the campaigns of two losers and get Big Mike that way. Also, the Storm damage in Western Alaska negated an appearance by the Governor at the debate that was held there. He was busy doing his job leading the response and inspecting the damage. None of that was evidently made apparent to people at the debate and certainly not in the so-called press. Dunleavy is the current governor and must take care of the state first. He had also cancelled a fundraiser scheduled for the following Monday. In other words, he is doing his job first. Hopefully it does not cost him the election. Neither Gara nor Walker will do any good for Alaska.

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