Poll: DeSantis, Trump tied in theoretical matchup with Biden

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By CASEY HARPER | THE CENTER SQUARE

Former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron Desantis are virtually tied with President Joe Biden in theoretical head-to-head matchups heading into the 2024 presidential campaign, according to new polling data.

The Center Square Voters’ Voices Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, found that in a faceoff, Trump has 41% support compared to Biden’s 44% support, while 15% remain unsure.

DeSantis does slightly better, with 41% support to Biden’s 43% and 16% unsure.

The poll’s margin of error is 2.4%, making either matchup a relative toss-up 15 months out from the general election.

“What’s interesting about the hypothetical matchups between Trump and Biden or Biden versus DeSantis is that there is actually no real meaningful demographic or psychographic difference between the two Republicans,” Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, the group that conducted the poll, told The Center Square.

“The takeaway really is that [general election] voters see Trump and DeSantis interchangeably, and I don’t think that was really the case six months ago,” he added. “Voters are less seeing a difference between Trump and DeSantis.”

Noble said Desantis lost a “slight edge” of a 2 to 4 percentage-point lead over Biden in the past six months as Trump’s attacks on the Florida governor took effect. At the same time, the several recent indictments against Trump actually helped propel him with Republican voters.

This poll comes the same week that a Georgia grand jury indicted Trump for his alleged role in trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election. That indictment, Trump’s fourth, is the latest in a string of legal challenges that could weaken his support, turn his campaign season into a string of court dates, and possibly even put him in prison before the 2024 election.

“In the primary, shockingly enough, [the indictments] have caused a rally around the flag for Trump in the GOP because, with this many folks in the race, it is so hard to get traction,” Noble said. “Nikki Haley has been at 4% since she announced four months ago, and she is typically considered a credible candidate.”

Noble said the indictments have benefited Trump early in the primary campaign but are “likely to be a liability” in the general.

If Trump’s legal woes somehow end up sinking his chances, the polling shows DeSantis could perform just as well – or potentially better – against Biden.

As of now, according to the poll, Trump is dominating the Republican field with less than a week before the first GOP presidential primary debate, scheduled for Wednesday in Milwaukee.

The survey found that 53% of surveyed Republicans picked Trump, followed by 18% naming DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence and entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy came in at third and fourth place with 7% and 6% support, respectively.

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tied for fifth place at 4% support each.

In a theoretical Republican primary head-to-head matchup where respondents are forced to pick between either Trump or DeSantis, 63% chose Trump and 37% chose DeSantis.

Male and female support for the respective Republican primary candidates largely follows the general population’s overall support. Trump has 53% support among men and women, and DeSantis has 18% support among each group as well. 

Scott does better with men than women, earning 6% and 3% support, respectively. Haley does better with women than men, with 5% and 4% support in each category.

Pence does better with women as well, with 8% support compared to 5% support from men.

Ramaswamy performs better with men, earning 7% support compared to 4% support from women.

Trump’s support among Hispanic Republicans outpaces his support overall in the field of GOP primary candidates. The survey found that Trump has 62% support among Hispanics. DeSantis has 17% support among the same group.

Trump’s legal troubles have not hurt him as much as some may expect. Noble said that is likely because Biden’s own legal troubles have “muddied the waters.” An ongoing investigation into Biden and his son Hunter Biden has turned up more evidence to back up allegations that the Biden family and associates took about $20 million from overseas entities, even in adversarial countries like Russia and China. 

“Trump’s number just hasn’t really moved very much in the general election because he is just so incredibly defined, and most folks have made up their opinion on him,” Noble said. “But what is interesting is that with the head-to-head matchup, why you are not seeing as much movement [is] because … Biden himself is running into some legal issues as well, and I think that’s muddying the waters in a general election matchup.”

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from July 31 to Aug. 3. Unlike traditional national polls, with their limited respondent count of about 1,000, Noble Predictive surveyed 1,000 Republican registered voters, 1,000 Democratic voters, and 500 Independents, culminating in a comprehensive sample size of 2,500. The margin of error for the aggregate sample was ±2.4%, with each political group independently weighted. For more detailed insights and information about the methodology, visit www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.

Casey Harper is a Senior Reporter for the Washington, D.C. Bureau of The Center Square. He previously worked for The Daily Caller, The Hill, and Sinclair Broadcast Group. A graduate of Hillsdale College, Casey’s work has also appeared in Fox News, Fox Business, and USA Today.

56 COMMENTS

  1. “Trump’s legal troubles have not hurt him as much as some may expect. Noble said ” .
    Quite the opposite they are propelling him further to the top. Noble is being more than generous to Desantis, who is more like twelve percent and falling. The Right will never get it Right and will mess up the party just like RCV did to Alaska.

    • So I think that the author was doing a binary choice experiment.

      The question seemed to be: if your choices are Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who would you vote for? or the choice between Biden and Ron DeSantis?

      The question wasn’t “If Trump cannot run/is in prison would you choose DeSantis or Biden?” It was a hypothetical one or the other choice.

      The polling numbers do not matter in this scenario.

      Donald Trump is clearly the front runner, but again, the polling numbers do not matter in a binary choice scenario

    • Can’t be VP under Trump.

      Besides the personal enmity, Article 2 basically implies they would cancel each others electoral college representation, essentially making Fla null and void in counting electoral college votes.

      This is a safeguard the Framers put it to prevent Virginia or Massachusetts from dominating the country.

      It’s all speculation since it’s never actually happened.

  4. Unless we clean up our elections it’s going to be Biden in ’24, all this polling is a waste of time.

  5. Disappointed mustread had an article lieing about desactimoneous standing a chance. Sad. Globalist propaganda.

    • I’ll play. How, specifically, is DeSantis serving the globalist agenda?

      Again, be specific.

      • Not hard to figure out.

        Trump threatens the elite managerial class – especially now that he has a chip on his shoulder. They’ll sign checks for any primary candidate that they think has a chance of derailing Trump’s re-election bid. DeSantis fills that role for them. They don’t want him as President (they didn’t want President Cruz either), they just want him to brawl. They are quite happy with Biden as an empty-headed placeholder, eating out of their hand while he signs their executive orders and regulations between naps.

        If the deep state ends up having to kill or imprison Trump, Desantis is simply a less charismatic and less threatening alternative that will struggle in the general election when his former ‘backers’ realign with their preferred globohomo candidate.

          • OK, Pollyanna.
            Democrats the press would never, ever fluff and/or quietly fund a ‘controlled’ opposition candidate to weaken someone they clearly fear ahead of a general election….

            I must have imagined Vic Vickers. I must have imagined watching Democrats remove the Green Party from the ballot in nearly every swing state in 2020. And the press never turned on wacko McStain and slobbed Obama the minute nominations were secured in 2008….

            But hey, you seem to think Desantis is going to somehow overcome an unprecedented 50% deficit in the Republican primary race, so stretching, wishing and coping seem to be firmly in your wheelhouse.

    • Low Energy Jeb! and Nick Begich supporters desperate to convince the public that there is an alternative to Trump in 2024. I like Desantis, but he needs to keep his powder dry for 2028.

      Remember when all the fake Republicans were forced to jump on Team Cruz, even though they hated him? Yeah, that was great.

      • Polls also showed in 2016 that Hillary was going to be the first Female President and when that didn’t happen, they switched to plan B Pandemic with all mail in voting changing the rules illegally and going back to the good old standby of stuffing the ballot box.

  8. The only way the current Commander in Thief could win is by, wait for it, cheating again. Have you heard him try to speak without a teleprompter? How on earth could anyone believe this crypt-keeping Chinese muppet could be at the head of this country? 80 million votes? Nope. It was proven after the election that votes were swapped and votes for him carried more weight (say: value of 1.3 vs 1) and they still had to manufacture fake ballots to lift this lifeless body to our head office. What a joke.

    • I am no fan of President Biden, he is far too old and senile, but until you can show me evidence that he cheated to win the 2020 election, I have to stand by the results of the election.

      • Pablo, if you could not see it in November of 2020 — meaning, if you REFUSED to see it as it happened — then no amount of evidence is going to convince you. Your faith in the supposed “integrity” of that (s)election is, like your faith in paternalistic government, a religious conviction much more than a logical or rational one.

      • This is liberal propaganda. The proof is everywhere, from there being more votes cast for biden than voters in the areas that did so, to late night tallies after the polls closed that gave 100% of their vote to Biden, to the suitcase full of votes we all saw on tv being stuffed into the ballot boxes.

        The night of the election I drove down my street and every single house had a Trump 2020 flag. Every. Single. House. I haven’t seen a single Biden flag. at this point the real number of votes for Biden are probably in the 3 to 4 digit range. It’s pathetic how transparent it all is.

        Meanwhile this time they have to prosecute Trump for fake crimes because they can’t find any real crimes, meanwhile Biden commits a felony a day through his son if not more. Those who don’t agree just refuse to see the truth and we are getting tired of pointing out the obvious.

        • So why has not of your evidence been upheld in a court? Didn’t President Trump lose over 60 court cases in the aftermath of the 2020 election where him and his attorneys failed to show any of this evidence?

          Because you saw so many Trump flags in Alaska, a state that went to Trump 2-1, you can extrapolate that every state and every city was the same? There is an old scientific adage, correlation is not causation. President Biden may be in the 3-4 digit range now, but that was not the case in November 2020, unless you can show some actual evidence

          Everyone gets their day in court. As pointed out by others on these forums, in a Grand Jury indictment, only the prosecution gets to present their evidence so it is easier to get charges brought forward. Then, he gets to defend himself in court in front of a jury of the people from the district in which he is charged.

          Many are saying President Trump is guilty of these alleged crimes before he even gets into a court room. This is wrong, and I for one, will withhold judgement against the man until justice plays out in court. Just because I do not like him does not mean that I will call him guilty without him getting a chance to defend himself. If the evidence presented in court by the prosecution does not satisfy the burden of proof, I will be one of the first to say it was a sham prosecution. Until then, I will withhold my judgement.

          Just because things aren’t going the way you want them to does not mean there is a grand conspiracy out to get you. Again, correlation is not causation.

          Have I ever defended President Biden? or Hunter? Nope. If they committed crimes, charge them and try them. I want to see justice for all, not one party or the other. I am no fan of President Biden, again, he is too old and senile, just like Sen Feinstein, Rep Pelosi, Sen McConnell and a multitude more.

          I think we need to institute term limits and a stock trading ban for all Reps and Sens as well as POTUS, VP and cabinet members.

          • Pablo – The only reason Trump “lost” his court cases alleging election fraud was because the lawsuits were dismissed as lacking standing or on procedural grounds. His lawyers, I believe, were never given the chance to present evidence.

          • Then why hasn’t he revealed that evidence at any point of the last almost three years since that 2020 election?

            It is clear that President Trump is willing to go out there on any media, whether Fox News or Truth Social or now Twitter/X with Tucker. If he wasn’t allowed to show the evidence in actual court, he should broadcast that information and try to sway the court of public opinion. If he has the evidence, please show us.

            That shouldn’t be that hard.

    • Biden won because Trump drove suburban white women away with his tweets. He also lied, saying he was gonna be a return to civility and normalcy.

      But the main reasons Biden won -he did, legally- are

      -Trump ran a poor campaign. This is highlighted by his inability to push back when the left began altering election laws.

      -Biden employed the time proven strategy of getting out of the way and letting Trump self destruct.

      -Trump shot himself by insisting on day of voting while the left was taking every advantage to vote. It’s not that world anymore.

      If you’ve got proof which will stand up in court, bring it.

      Trump stands a very good chance of losing this election because he’s too busy nursing old grudges instead of planning a electable future.

      • TMA, in your stubborn and curious refusal to acknowledge the OBVIOUS, blatant and significant election fraud that propelled China Joe into the presidency in 2020, you are as much in willful denial of reality as is the worst and blindly pro-establishment radical leftist extremist. I find your stance on this matter both puzzling and disturbing, given your otherwise well-argued and intelligent posts in this forum.

        • Repeating that something is “obvious” over and over doesn’t make it true or convince anyone. Nor does badly wishing it was true or believing it. If there was any concrete evidence other than “Trump said it so it must be true”, well, we’re still waiting. Sorry, but to do it in court, you do have to have standing. If nobody was able to get it together enough to do that right, with all that energy and attention on it, that strongly suggests there’s nothing there.

          • NW, if you had followed the election fraud cases even slightly, you know damned well that the courts, in their panic over being faced with reams of evidence of such fraud, cowardly and disingenuously refused to hear EVERY such case, on the flimsiest of dubious legal grounds.

            If all the courts consistently and uniformly refused to acknowledge, much less examine, every bit of that evidence — because they knew that it was damning to the leftist establishment and agenda — then how can you in any honesty dare to claim that all those cases were meritless?

          • Jefferson: Oh, I’ve been following. I just don’t believe the claims of dingbats like Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani without more than their breathless and insistent claims, endlessly repeated to make them appear true. If there’s physical evidence that can be examined by qualified people, bring it. If not, it’s just hearsay being repeated. There’s been plenty of time; if there was irrefutable evidence, it would be out by now.

            Also, “… Trump-appointed justices heard key cases: in more than 60 post-election lawsuits, a total of 86 judges—including 38 Republican appointees and eight chosen by Trump himself—rejected the election challenges. Even the Supreme Court, with one-third of the justices appointed by Trump, ruled against him. Not a single Trump appointee on any court voted to support his fraud claims.” (‘https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-trumps-judges-stuck-a-pin-in-the-stop-the-steal-balloon). Are we to believe there was a conspiracy of Republican- and even Trump-appointed judges who shut this all down? Tin-foil hat stuff, IMO.

            I’m all for transparency and verifiability of elections, paper ballots for backup, etc., while maintaining the integrity of the secret ballot, all of which is not trivial to achieve. But I’m also for maximizing the number of eligible citizens who get to vote, and not disenfranchising anyone.

      • Nah.

        -Trump ran a campaign. Biden was a compliant placeholder installed by Obama. You don’t recall the horseheads mailed to the other candidates one day before Super Tuesday? Most of these election changes were rammed through just months ahead of the election, Trump wasn’t going to be able to stop them any more than he could stop left wing judges from unilaterally redrawing voting districts in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

        -I must have missed out when our ‘Republicans’ have pushed to restore Election Day/in person voting, which would massively cut down on cheating. If you think conservatives can match left wing on ballot harvesting operations, you are deluding yourself. Urban districts are compact, conservative districts are diffuse. Leftist activists can volunteer on the public dollar and grants, conservatives have to take off from work.

        Weak point exploited is mail-in signature verification. Once you separate the ballot envelopes from the ballots themselves, the information is lost forever. Signatures of mailed ballots were demonstrably approved at rates far and away higher than any previous election by partisan election volunteers – that could not be observed properly due to COVID rules.

  9. Trumps legal woes are doing exactly what the progressives want them to do.

    -They think Trump is beatable again. Making a martyr out of him is freezing out other challengers.

    -They are bleeding Trump dry with having to have lawyers defend him in 4 separate locations.

    -They are throwing a question of logistical improbability of how a convicted whatever can effectively act as POTUS.

    -They are tying his campaign time up by locking him into court appearances.

    This has nothing to do with “equal Justice under the law” and everything to do with election interference.

  11. Waste of time and resources as people will lie and numbers are massaged to make the poll come out the way that is wanted. Polls are like the weatherman wrong most of the time.

  13. Hatred for Orange Man is so strong in the left that they would gladly vote for a demented liar and a woman who can’t even put together a substantial, meaningful speech. I guess they hated a great economy, secure borders and low energy prices. They cut off their nose to spite their face.

  14. While within the realm of affordability, the statistical sample of this poll is way too small to have any validity. I appreciate the reporting, but my gut tells me the American people (at least all of the ones I speak with…) are sick of the slimeball politics, lies, manipulations, and general dishonesty – and ANGER – in this election season. IMHO, how anyone could support the left and their thievery of both material and freedom is simply beyond my imagination. IF somehow – honestly or dishonestly – the left wins again, America is finished. Last nail in the coffin. brandonomics is destroying the middle class in preparation for a communist takeover – much of which is already accomplished, though I’m hopeful it’s not too late to turn things around. Personally, brandon has cost me over $1/2M and I’m facing losing my house – though again I’m hopeful, but not if the “commander in thief” (as Periphyseon aptly describes the muppet at the head of the Amerikan chicom party above) gets reinstalled in the White House.

  15. Meanwhile for 3 years, ever since the 2020 elections, no one not even republicans have done anything about the integrity of our elections.

    • Related, none have done a damn thing to educate the voters on how to use the current systems to our advantage.

      And so many wonder why we say uniparty

  16. Those who still trust political polls are the same ones who believe Michael L. Robinson is a biological woman!

    • As Teddie Roosevelt said: “Speak softly and carry a big stick”.

      (Even if you need to carry it under a dress, I guess.)

      In any event, Big Mike’s linebacker shoulders speak for themselves.

  17. Remember when most of the polls had Hillary Clinton had a 99.5% probability of winning the 2016 Presidential election? How did that pan out for her? Most polls are a part our entire fraudulent election process in general!

  18. The notion that ONLY seventy-seven year old Donald John Trump can provide conservative leadership for the country is madness. There are many bad things that are being done to Donald Trump but that does not transform him into the best nominee for conservatives. He seems to cling to things that cannot be verified and attacks anyone and everyone that stands in his way. He is inherently destructive and irrational, IMO. Time to move on.

      • Wayne, Your man Trump won one election and I am forever thankful for his defeating the evil witch. That said, T has since given us a string of stunning losses.

        What was it that Einstein said about the definition of insanity? Something about expecting a different result?

        Advocating for a Trump V sequel after three stunning Trump election flops in secession might be evidence of Trumpmania, those that are afflicted are known as Trumpanzies.

        We are all in this together my old friend, remember I’m pulling for you!

  19. All of us, especially leftists, should remember what we learned about so-called “polls” during the 2016 presidential election… in which all the so-called “pollsters” unanimously predicted a Hillary landslide?

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