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The lenient arm of the law: More ‘catch-and-reoffend’ car thievery

Suzanne Downing
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The lenient arm of the law: More ‘catch-and-reoffend’ car thievery

Must Read Alaska readers will remember the case of Saliloimanatu Toilolo, who was caught stealing cars repeatedly in Anchorage, only to be released by a court order, so she could get caught stealing again.

To review: On Oct. 26, she was stopped  by Anchorage police in a stolen silver 2003 Cadillac Escalade on West 44th Avenue. She already had a list of priors that included attempted car theft as far back as 2004. Toilolo was definitely known by the criminal justice system.

[Read: Catch and release through the court system]

The driver of that vehicle was Shane Muse, who drove recklessly throughout the Midtown before ramming police vehicles in an attempt to evade arrest.

Officers arrested Muse, 28, and passengers Crystal Tui, 24 and Toilolo, 32. They faced multiple charges including vehicle theft 1 and vehicle theft 2.

Toilolo soon was out and back to her old ways. She was busted driving a stolen car on Jan. 11, but under new relaxed pre-trial guidelines, she was released on Jan. 17, ordered to wear an electronic ankle monitor. She never plugged it in, and was busted in February driving another stolen car.

Shane Muse was released by the judge after being charged with numerous Class C felonies in this case and prior felony charges relating to an arrest a month earlier.

MUSE BACK AT IT

Muse wasn’t busted again until this week, when he was caught in a 2006 black GMC Yukon that had been reported stolen Feb. 25 from a parking lot on East Tudor Road.

[Check out Toilolo’s eye roll during court hearing]

On March 6, 2018, police saw the stolen GMC Yukon in a church parking lot at E 11th Avenue and Ingra Street. The Yukon was parked next to two other vehicles: a silver GMC pickup truck and a silver Chevy Malibu. Both were occupied.

As the officer who spotted the activity waited for backup, the drivers of the three vehicles noticed him, and started to leave. With all three vehicles now evading the law, patrol units were on the tail of the Malibu and the GMC pickup, while another officer used a maneuver to force the Yukon into a snowbank at 10th and Juneau.

Officers arrested the driver, 25-year-old Crystal A. Tui, on charges of eluding, vehicle theft 1 and vehicle theft 2. They also arrested the passenger, 28-year-old Shane Muse.

At some point in the proceedings, numerous shots were fired not far from the police officers. No one was hit. Officers found a stolen handgun inside the Yukon, tucked beneath the seat where Muse had been sitting.

Muse was booked on criminal mischief 5, two counts of theft 2, vehicle theft 1, and misconduct involving a weapon 3 (felon in possession).  He also had an outstanding felony warrant.

After Tui and Muse were cuffed, officers began looking for the source of the fired shots and found shell casings about 150-200 feet from the scene.

Although official charges are not yet recorded, Muse has previous charges that he has not yet gone to trial on, including forgery and fraudulent use of a stolen access device.

Both Tui and Muse are housed in the Anchorage Jail for now. They’ll undergo a pretrial assessment to determine whether or not the justice system finds them at risk of reoffending.

Readers of Must Read Alaska may provide their own “pretrial risk assessment” below.

The ‘nothing to report’ videos keep rolling on Berkowitz

Suzanne Downing
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The ‘nothing to report’ videos keep rolling on Berkowitz

Another “Nothing to Say Mayor” video hit YouTube last week, part of a series of Anchorage Assembly meetings featuring a mayor of Alaska’s largest city, one overrun with crime, who has “nothing to report” week after week.

In this video montage, Assembly Chairman Dick Traini chides the mayor for never having anything to report: “Tell us about your new city manager,” he says, encouraging Mayor Ethan Berkowitz to deliver some kind of report.

Must Read Alaska has posted the other videos that “Reformed Snowflake” has produced in recent weeks, including these:

Mr. Mayor continues to have ‘nothing to report’

 

‘Nothing to Say Mayor’ video is direct hit at Berkowitz

 

Walker’s China Syndrome: Ignoring the human rights problem

Suzanne Downing
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REPUTATION OF CHINA IS SUB PAR

Gov. Bill Walker knows China has an image problem. It’s a threat to his plans for the AK-LNG project — the Alaska Gasline.

The image is well-earned: China is supporting terror, killing dissidents, and recently created a system of classifying politically acceptable citizens in a “social credit” system that will keep everyone in line. Think of it as a credit score given to you by the government that will determine if you can get work, housing, or services — or perhaps be assigned to a labor camp.

Ah, communism. It’s all in a day’s work.

China hasn’t developed a love of democracy, even while it becomes a major economic powerhouse. The Trump Administration, following up on the promise of Trump-the-candidate, announced steep tariffs against Chinese steel. Trump is weighing whether to penalize Chinese investments in the U.S. and impose China-specific tariffs on other imports as a way to punish the communist country for its intellectual property theft.

But if President Trump is finding China to be in need of course correction on the trade front, Gov. Walker sees opportunity for Alaska.

What better time to stand up a “reputation management campaign” for China than right now, as Walker is trying to get investment into his newly socialized gasline?

TIME TO HOLD AN UPBEAT PRESS CONFERENCE

On Monday,  Gov. Walker held a nearly content-free press conference to talk about his next trip to China with Alaska Gasline Development Corporation President Keith Meyer.
He used the event to describe the many ways that China is a great partner to Alaska. The wide-ranging topics were aspirational. Reporters, brought in to hear what was supposed to be big news, struggled to find anything to write about.
There was this: Walker is inviting Alaska business owners to go along with him and Meyer on the May trip they’re making to China; businesses can apply to be part of what is described broadly as a “trade mission,” that isn’t just focused on the AK-LNG project, although that is clearly the main topic.
The deadline for applying to participate in the trip to China is April 1, and participants will be required to pay their own way, including $3,000 in a “participation fee” that covers logistics, interpreters, and other associated costs. Participants must cover their own travel and lodging costs.
During his press conference, Walker introduced a representative from the Alaska Chinese Association, who said how pleased the Chinese community in Alaska is to have a governor interested in the relationship between China and Alaska. She put a soft focus on the country, although her relationship to the Chinese government was never explained.
Last month, Walker paid a visit to that organization and its Yen Wulin Chinese School in Anchorage.
Gov. Bill Walker and First Lady Donna Walker at the Alaska Chinese School / Xinhua Net News photo by Liu Quan
Walker also gave the new manager of the Ted Stevens International Airport a chance to talk about the aspirations the airport has to get direct flights to and from China.
Airport Manager Jim Szczesniak spoke about how there is a pilot shortage, an aircraft shortage, and a “slot problem,” a term for scheduling, which he said Anchorage is in a unique position to address.
But Szczesniak had no specifics during the press conference — he stuck to the familiar talking points that describe Anchorage’s great strategic location. His remarks were, too, aspirational.
Keith Meyer, head of the gasline office for Walker, was asked by reporters whether the steep new tariffs would impact the cost of building the gasline. Meyer gave no specifics but said the tariffs would have a negligible effect on the $0-60 billion project. He reiterated that the gasline is an important piece of the puzzle in addressing the U.S.-China trade imbalance.
Meyer said that Trump’s tougher stance on trade with China was actually a good thing for the Alaska gasline and really harmonious with our mission.”

CHINA BUYS ALASKA SEAFOOD, TOURISM COULD FOLLOW

China is Alaska’s largest trade customer, accounting for  30 percent of the state’s seafood exports.  Alaska has also exported mineral and timber, but in spite of that is at the bottom of the states with overall business with China.

Visit Anchorage CEO Julie Saupe was invited to speak during the press conference and cited anecdotal stories about China’s increased interest in Alaska as a tourism destination. She, too, spoke of Alaska’s aspirations to drive more Chinese tourists this way.

CHINA: POLITICAL REPRESSION ON THE RISE

If softening China’s image with Alaskans was the goal of the press conference, Walker succeeded with the press corps, as reporters didn’t ask him about his views on the nation’s human rights violations and whether that is a problem for Alaska.

China executes more people, including political dissidents, than any other country, practices forced abortion, operates slave labor factories, and covertly has supported rogue countries like North Korea and Iran.

Dissent is being quashed, with censors now banning the phrase “personality cult,” “emperor” and “Winnie the Pooh” — a phrase that has been used to mock President Xi Jinping.

Maya Wang of  Human Rights Watch describes the current repression as the worst since 1989’s bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests centred on Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

“We feel we haven’t hit bottom yet,” she said in an interview with the South China Morning Post.

President Xi is being granted increased powers that include an unlimited term of office by China’s People’s Congress, which convened this week. Not since Mao Tse Tung has the country’s leader been able to serve for more than 10 years.

As dictator for life, Xi is consolidating power, and at 64 years old he could retain power for another 20 years or more.

Gov. Walker’s focus on China legitimizes the highly authoritarian, Communist one-party system that is crushing dissent and criticism. With China’s increased interest in the Arctic, Walker may be creating a relationship with China that Alaskans will have more questions about than the few that were asked by the press corps on Monday.
Must Read Alaska readers are invited to pose their questions below.

This changes everything: LNG imports ahead for Kenai

Suzanne Downing
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This changes everything: LNG imports ahead for Kenai

NOT PART OF WALKER GASLINE PLAN

Last month, Andeavor (the company formerly known as Tesoro) purchased the Kenai Liquefied Natural Gas facility from ConocoPhillips.

The Nikiski plant, which had previously operated as an LNG export facility since the late 1960s, came at an attractive price: $10 million. This is the believed transaction price for what is a massive waterfront property with potential to make substantial sums of money — an enterprise with a view. Andeavor said it would strengthen the “integrated value chain” and “provide low-cost fuel for our refinery to produce the fuels that consumers in Alaska need to keep their lives moving.”

Where would Andeavor be getting this low-cost fuel?

One hint is that the company allowed an important export license to expire, because Cook Inlet natural gas is not competitive for export. That can only mean one thing: Andeavor plans to import LNG to bring down the cost of its refinery operations, not export it as the plant has traditionally done.

At a time when Gov. Bill Walker has pinned his legacy on building the largest infrastructure project in North American history, the AK-LNG project, Andeavor has quietly done what the private sector does best: optimize. Andeavor found a way to lower the cost of operations at its refinery by responding to market conditions. Clearly, they see it as a risk worth taking.

WHY DID CONOCOPHILLIPS SELL?

ConocoPhillips scaled back operations in 2015 and started looking for a buyer for the Kenai LNG plant in 2016. The operation was transferred to Andeavor on Jan. 31, 2018, allowing ConocoPhillips to exit its footprint in Cook Inlet and direct all of its efforts to the more profitable North Slope oil fields, where it has been investing heavily.

The Kenai LNG plant began operations in 1969 but has been in “warm shutdown” mode since 2015. It can liquefy 0.2 bcc per day of gas, or 1.5 million m/t per year of LNG.

WHAT WILL ANDEAVOR DO WITH IT?

That 1.5 million m/t of gas can be used to operate Andeavor’s refinery, which produces 62,700 barrels of product a day — jet fuel, diesel, gas, butane, and propane, for example.

In fact, Andeavor makes nearly all of the fuel used in Alaska except in Southeast.

The natural gas likely will be purchased on the international spot market and stored in tanks at Nikiski. The company will also have the ability to sell imported natural gas to customers from the Kenai to Fairbanks.

It would be a small operation in the global scheme of things, but in fact Andeavor could make a tidy profit selling gas on the side.

“We are still considering our options,” a spokesman for Andeavor told Platts, an energy publication.

WHAT ABOUT WALKER’S AK-LNG PROJECT?

The AK-LNG project envisioned by Gov. Bill Walker is, many experts agree, at least a decade away. That project has three major components:

  • A gas treatment plant on the North Slope
  • An 800-mile gas pipeline
  • A liquefaction facility in Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula, along with docks and an export facility for shipping to Asian markets.

The AK-LNG project filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to start the permitting process last April, but has been rebuffed by FERC, which sent a scolding letter in January to AGDC, Alaska’s publicly owned corporation, saying its application falls well short of acceptable.  In effect, FERC gave it a classroom grade of “Incomplete”.

AGDC wants to be on a schedule to get gas to the market by 2025 and would like to start construction next year. But things are dicey now with FERC. The governor and AGDC President Keith Meyer have been conspicuously silent since receiving the letter from FERC.

All last year, Walker and Meyer worked to establish a relationship with China. They desperately need a buyer for the large of Alaska North Slope natural gas, and even more urgently they need money to build the project.

The AK-LNG project is the platform Gov. Walker ran on in his bid for governor in 2010 and was again the center of his platform in 2014 when he won office. He felt the companies were going too slowly. He sold himself as the leader who would get the AK-LNG project done soonest and most certainly.

“The State needs to ensure completion of a large volume gas line to tidewater at Cook Inlet for shipment of LNG to Asia. No company should be able to halt progress while demanding concessions from the state,” he wrote in 2014.

Once he actually took office, Walker pushed the private sector out and made it a State-owned and State-managed enterprise that has since spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop the $45+ billion project. Since the private sector partners exited, AK-LNG has struggled to gain traction on any front, ranging from markets to permit applications.

Gov. Walker, with support from his well stacked AGDC board, recently made agreements in principle with China to take over major components of the project, and last month, Walker’s supplemental budget included language to cut out the Legislature as the appropriator for the project, consolidating his authority over it as he goes to his new funding source: China.

However, these agreements with Chinese state enterprises are not binding and are most accurately seen as a willingness to discuss certain ideas further.

[Read: Storm clouds gather for AGDC]

COMPETITION FOR THE WALKER GASLINE?

Long-term state project aspirations aside, a company like Andeavor is stuck in the present with Cook Inlet prices for natural gas, and those are just not competitive due to the high cost of operating in Cook Inlet.

While Andeavor may not want to upset the Walker Administration’s gasline efforts by importing gas to Alaska, it’s simply cheaper to get it from elsewhere, and the Kenai plant can be up and running in just two years.

That would mean Andeavor could provide more affordable fuel to Alaskans and also to the air carriers that stop over at Ted Stevens International Airport to refuel. The cargo jet refueling capacity at Ted Stevens represents a major part of the Alaska economy that must remain competitive, and Andeavor is likely aware that it needs to be nimble with its jet fuel prices, or air carriers will look elsewhere.

LNG coming into Alaska could also allow the fertilizer plant in Nikiski to restart and bring back dozens of jobs on the Peninsula, which urgently needs them.

Agrium, the fertilizer company that is now called Nutrien, cannot manufacture fertilizer without economical access to the raw material — natural gas. It’s been in shutdown mode for years, as a result.

And then there’s Fairbanks: A source of natural gas coming on line in the next two years is going to be of great interest to the Interior Energy Project (IEP), where tens of miles of gas delivery lines have been laid around the Fairbanks business core but, as of yet, stand devoid of actual gas. They built it, but the gas has yet to come. But with Andeavor’s LNG plant acquisition and apparent business plans, that could conceivably change.

Construction of the new LNG storage tanks in Fairbanks could be fast-tracked and come online by 2020, which would allow the IEP to get $15 million in state tax credits that would help cover some of the facility’s cost.

With its own storage capacity, Andeavor will likely be able to sell its excess natural gas to these and other projects. All it has to do is bid on cargo that is floating around the Pacific looking for a home. The recently growing spot market for LNG has given Andeavor a new possible line of business and a leg up as an energy provider in Alaska. Hilcorp, you’ve got company.

SPOT MARKET CHANGE EVERYTHING

The LNG spot market started originally in the late 1990s as new projects came online and old contracts expired. LNG began to be sold on an as-needed/as-available basis. If winter was less severe somewhere, for example, the excess LNG is sold at a cheaper price elsewhere. That market has grown exponentially in recent years with the emergence of a gas glut in the Pacific Basin.

As a result, long-term contracts are not in fashion in the LNG market in this era, with so many competing LNG projects coming online.

Sen. Shower opts not to join majority

Suzanne Downing
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Sen. Shower opts not to join majority

Sen. Mike Shower, just one week into his term in the Alaska Senate, is following in the steps of his predecessor Mike Dunleavy, and has decided not to join the Republican-led caucus.

His concerns and his decision involves budgeting issues and the growing size of the State budget. Caucus members stick together on the budget. Without being a caucus member, he will likely have just one staff person assigned to him and will not be included in important caucus meetings.

“As the budget stands today, and with a governor and House majority wanting increased spending, it’s likely there’ll be a budget increase more than our district would support at the end of the process,” he said on Facebook today.

“All members of a majority caucus must agree to vote for the budget no matter its size. For this reason, I’m unable to commit to be a member of the Senate Majority caucus at this time. I believe we need additional cuts, not an increase in government spending. I appreciate the Senate Majority members who have been very gracious and welcoming. However, I need to focus on the priorities of District E.”

The governor’s proposed operating budget is $4.7 billion, larger than what he proposed last year and the same budget he signed off on at the end of last year’s budget wrangling.

But with more than $200 million in supplemental requests, Gov. Bill Walker’s budget actually is pushed to nearly $5 billion in this fiscal year.

Shower, who was chosen by Walker to fill out the term of gubernatorial candidate Dunleavy, is concerned that the House Democrats and the governor will overpower the Republican Senate and force spending even higher, like they did last year. Another Valley Senator, Shelley Hughes, also stepped out of the caucus last year and remains out because she can’t support a growing budget during a time when revenues are not meeting expenditures.

Surviving abortion: What do you do with the baby?

Suzanne Downing
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Surviving abortion: What do you do with the baby?

SB 124 – BORN ALIVE BILL

The goal of abortion is to end a pregnancy and extinguish life in the womb.

But while abortion ends the pregnancy in all cases (and on occasion the life of the mother), some babies escape the womb still alive. What happens to them when the are breathing, making sounds, when their arms and legs are moving or their heart is beating? Does the abortionist kill the baby or provide help to a living person in need of aid?

SB 124, whose sponsor is Sen. Cathy Giessel, addresses that. It’s a bill that provides medical professionals with clarity on the issue of abortion survivor babies. The bills’ next hearing is in the Senate Judiciary Committee on March 7 at 1:30 pm, and again March 9 at 1:30 pm.

The bill is “An Act relating to the duties of physicians and health care practitioners when performing or inducing abortions; providing that a child removed from a pregnant woman’s womb alive after an abortion may be surrendered and found to be a child in need of aid; and providing for an effective date.”

The ACLU of Alaska opposes SB 124, saying that the measure would “chip away at a woman’s right to control her body by forcing her to undergo a dangerous medical procedure risking her fertility and even her life. SB 124 is also an unconstitutional infringement on a woman’s fundamental right to privacy.”

But the bill specifically says that if in the doctor’s judgment, which the bill’s language acknowledges is subjective, a child can survive outside the womb and there is not a serious risk to the life or health of the mother, the doctor should use the abortion method that is less likely to kill the child. That might mean bringing the baby out head first, or not severing the spinal cord or head prior to abortion.

FETUS, PARENT?

Pro-choice advocates struggle to avoid using the word “baby” or “infant” to describe these tiny humans who emerge live from a failed abortion. That difficulty was displayed by Sen. Tom Begich on Feb. 19, when during a Senate Health and Social Services Committee, Begich asked Sen. Giessel a question where he referred to the surviving child as a “fetus,” yet referred to the mother as a “parent.”

“The bill specifies the ‘form to best survive,’ the process to best survive, and this is the conflict that I might have with this legislation,” Begich said. “Would this restrict the choices available then to a doctor which might be much less risky to a parent if it is more viable for a fetus at that point to survive?”

The answer, Giessel said, is no. The decision lies with the physician, who would be in in the best position to know which method of abortion would or would not be risky for the mother.

But the description given by Begich was left unaddressed — is the survivor with a beating heart still a fetus or is it a human being? Begich seemed uncomfortable with being precise.

The initial presentation of SB 124.

Giessel, the bill sponsor, is also a nurse practitioner and through her bill is hoping to preserve some infants’ lives, even in an era when the Alaska Supreme Court has made it all but impossible to put sideboards on abortion laws. SB 124 seems to take a “reasonable” approach to at least save a few lives.

HOW MANY MIGHT SURVIVE?

Planned Parenthood is the largest provider of abortions in Alaska, performing 1,300 of the 1,334 abortions that are on record for 2015. Some 65 percent of Alaska women having abortions were in the first eight weeks of their pregnancies.

The number of babies aborted after 20 weeks in Alaska is variable and it’s not always easy to say exactly what week a baby is in utero.

In 2014, 44 were aborted between 17-20 weeks and 15 were aborted at 21-24 weeks. But in 2015, only 2 were aborted between 17-20 weeks and 1 was aborted at 21-24 weeks. Reporting by abortion providers may be purposefully inaccurate.

Most babies who are born at 24 weeks can survive, if cared for by modern neonatal medicine. The second trimester to a pregnancy extends to about week 27, similar to the infant in the photo illustration above.

[Read Alaska Department of Health and Social Services 2015 statistical report]

BORN-ALIVE BILL IN CONGRESS

This is a movement that has national momentum. The Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act (H.R. 4712), would give congressionally mandated protection to newborns who survive abortions. The bill says that if the baby survives, he or she is entitled to the same care that any other baby would be given. It also creates criminal penalties of up to five years in prison for health workers who don’t provide the life-saving care.

WASHINGTON STATE TO MAKE INSURERS PAY FOR ELECTIVE ABORTIONS

While Alaska Senate Bill 124 would have medical professionals provide aid to Alaska children born live during failed abortion procedures, Washington State Senate is moving in the opposite direction: It’s requiring all who pay for health insurance to pay for the elective abortions of others.

The Washington Senate has passed a law requiring all health insurance providers to cover both birth control and elective abortions. The Senate passed the bill by 27-22 on Saturday; the House had already passed its version.

Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat, is expected to sign the bill.

Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …

Suzanne Downing
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Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …

In the days leading up to the Alaska Republican Party’s State Convention, former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan has made his choice, and it’s Mike Dunleavy for governor.

The video endorsement released in advance of the convention can be seen here.

The 77-second endorsement was posted on Facebook this morning by the political action committee “Dunleavy for Alaska.” It features “Mayor Dan,” the man who ran for lieutenant governor in 2014 and won  74 percent of the Republican vote — 74,000 votes statewide.

Sullivan has at times considered his own run for governor. But that time is not now, evidently: “I’ve thought a lot about this upcoming governor’s race. This next decade is going to be critical for Alaska,” Sullivan starts out, as he looks out a window on a snowy Anchorage day, his back toward the camera. Then he turns to the camera and launches the endorsement: “And that’s why I’m supporting Mike Dunleavy for governor of the great state of Alaska.”

The Republican State Convention is March 8-10 and all candidates who have announced for the Republican ticket are likely to attend, including Dunleavy and his competitors, Mike Chenault, Scott Hawkins, and Michael Sheldon.

Mr. Smoldon goes to Juneau? Not just now

Suzanne Downing
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Mr. Smoldon goes to Juneau? Not just now

By TODD SMOLDON
GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

For years, I approached politics the way most Alaskans do.  I paid very little attention to the legislative process and then complained about the decisions that were made.  Essentially, I used my undeclared voter registration status as a political “safe space.”  Gov. Walker’s election in 2014 on “the unity ticket” proved he would do anything to get elected, and I started to pay more attention.

It is difficult to make political changes if you don’t join a party. As a fiscal conservative who believes in small government, becoming a Democrat was never an option, but I was very frustrated with some of the Republicans in Alaska. Over the years, I had watched too many of them vote and legislate in a way that did not honor the platform they claimed to support.

Then, in 2016, Representatives LeDoux, Seaton, and Stutes caucused with the Democrats and gave them control of the House. That was the tipping point for me, and I felt compelled to get involved.

I registered as a Republican and fought to get my local district organized, but I never imagined that I would submit my name to replace Senator Dunleavy.  I had no desire to change what I was doing.  I love my teaching job. The opportunity to be a teacher and a positive male role model for teenage girls dealing with mental health issues has been an incredible blessing. Disrupting my family, career, and taking a pay cut made the decision even more difficult.

A conversation I had with a friend changed everything. While speaking about our choices to fill the empty seat he said, “It sounds like you want a clone.” At that moment, my own political action rhetoric raced through my mind.

I heard what I had told my students and others many times about getting involved: “One person can make a difference,” “You have the power to change things,” “If you want to make a difference, stop complaining and do something.”  So, to honor the state that I love and out of respect and appreciation for the people of Senate District E and Senator Dunleavy, I submitted my application.

The good news is that I get to spend time with my family, continue in a job that I love, and motivate people to get politically active so that we can elect a new governor in November.

I was a bit shocked when I made the short list. I had only been a registered Republican in District 10 for 14 months. But in hindsight, it makes sense. I am “entrenched in conservative values” and I believe the district party leaders thought I was the most like Senator Dunleavy.  (Albeit with a mullet, about a foot shorter, and not as good looking.)  But despite their desire to have me seriously considered as a replacement, Gov. Walker continually refused to consider me.

Why?  Because I have been a strident opponent of the governor’s agenda. I openly criticize the governor in op-eds and on the radio. I remind people that his partial veto of the PFD took 120 million dollars out of the Mat-Su economy.  I criticize him for not filling empty State trooper positions that are desperately needed to protect us from an explosion of crime exacerbated by SB 91.

I bombastically question why he would continue to fund a gas pipeline project that is not economical. And I continually highlight the many campaign promises that he broke almost immediately after taking office; to protect the dividend, to cut the operating budget by 15 percent, and to not support any new taxes.

At some point in the process, Gov. Walker must have asked his staff, “Would it be better for Mr. Smoldon to be in Juneau where he has to be more diplomatic, or should I just declare him unacceptable?”  He chose the latter.

Many people have asked me why he summarily rejected me as a candidate without explanation.

The answer is simple. There is no reasonable explanation. How could he tell everyone that he would not appoint me because I have exposed his terrible policy and the harm he has caused to the economy and people of Alaska?

Mr. Smoldon goes to Juneau? No, not right now. But the good news is that I get to spend time with my family, continue in a job that I love, and motivate people to get politically active so that we can elect a new governor in November.

Todd Smoldon has lived in Alaska for 30 years, is a resident of Willow, and a high school economics teacher.

With AK-LNG, China is not just interested in gas supply

Suzanne Downing
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With AK-LNG, China is not just interested in gas supply

By SCOTT HAWKINS
SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR

After sidelining three of the world’s premier energy companies in order to “go it alone” on an Alaska LNG line, the Walker Administration is now looking to China to salvage the troubled project.

The latest sign of this is in the Governor’s supplemental budget for 2018, where he has asked for an open-ended appropriation allowing him to accept and spend investments on the project – including from China — without further legislative oversight. It is similar in a legal sense to some of the state’s revolving loan funds.

There is much about Walker’s proposal that is troubling. He is asking for carte blanche authority to essentially sell the AK-LNG project to a foreign entity.

And not just any foreign entity, but one that is the main global rival of the U.S. The project Walker wishes to sell, which is the practical effect of his proposal, would be the largest energy project in the history of the U.S.

For a moment, let’s suppose that the Alaska Legislature gives Walker that carte blanche authority. How would that look?

The next big step for the project, besides getting its troubled FERC permit applications in order, is to enter into a project phase called FEED – “front end engineering and design.” This is where much of the heavy lifting takes place from an engineering standpoint.  It is massively costly, well north of a billion dollars.  It is what Walker hopes he can convince the Chinese to underwrite.

WHAT’S IN IT FOR THE CHINESE?

What would Chinese state interests want in return? Management control. Contracts for engineering and construction entities in China favored by Premier Xi Jinping’s regime. Strong influence over project economics, which could influence the netback value of Alaska’s gas resources. Financing packages from preferred Chinese financial institutions. In other words, de facto hegemony over a large part of Alaska’s economy and an important national U.S. energy asset.

Those who pay the tab name the tune.

Make no mistake about it, Chinese state interests will not make a major investment in an LNG project simply to lock in a gas supply. There are too many options in the Pacific basin for supply, including Canada, Australia, Indonesia, and even the Middle East.

If supply was the main consideration, far better to commit to several medium sized projects, thus diversifying risk. Many or all of these would be lower cost projects, too, thus improving the competitiveness of Chinese industries. Indeed, this is the most likely course of action for China.

A REALITY CHECK

As unsavory as the idea of Chinese state interests controlling Alaska’s next generation energy project may seem, it is not a very likely scenario. There are several reasons for this.

First, China’s appetite for new energy supply is likely to come in below current expectations over the next 20 years.  Indeed, GDP growth has been slowing in China since 2010, when it peaked at 10.5 percent.  In 2017 it stood at 6.8 percent, and is expected to ease back further from there.

A second and related reason is that the government of Xi Jinping is exerting ever-heavier control over the economy.  While this is good for favored state investment projects, it is not good for the economy and will push growth even lower.

A harbinger of where all this is headed is the recent approval of a rules change within the Chinese communist party allowing General Secretary Xi to hold his office for life. He now stands as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. One can safely say that the natural temptations of power to seek ever more power will be increasingly alive and well with China’s authoritarian regime in the years to come.

Indeed, as The Economist magazine noted in the cover article of its most recent edition, China has crossed over from an authoritarian regime to an outright dictatorship.

This phenomenon of an Asian country bursting upon the world scene, appearing invincible and seemingly headed for ever great power, reminds me of the overwrought fears about Japan in the 1980s.

While Japan had indeed rebuilt and re-industrialized on an impressive scale up through the 1980s, it took only one financial crisis, triggered by a small real estate development group called Recruit Cosmos, to lay bare the country’s structural economic flaws. Japan has never fully recovered its vitality since then.

Today, nobody worries about Japan ruling the world. Instead, we worry about China. Yet, the structural imbalances there are even more profound than those that faced – and continue to face – Japan.

Having traveled extensively in Asia on business, I have had the opportunity to witness these sorts of transitions first-hand. While China is a large, powerful country and will be for generations to come, her best days may very well be behind her.

The final reason not to worry about the Alaska – China Syndrome coming to pass is the most simple:  China has not yet expressed any real interest in the project.

The memorandum of understanding that Gov. Walker and his executives at AGDC waved proudly over the holidays after President Trump’s visit to China is little more than a photo opportunity.  If you actually read that very fluffy 4-page memo, it is nothing more than an agreement to talk about the project further. Possibly over tea.

In the meantime, Alaskans should sleep easily, worrying not about a Chinese takeover. Those of us who care greatly about the AK-LNG project should worry a lot more about the very wrong turn the project took when Gov. Walker decided to “go it alone.”

Yet, a gentle word of caution to legislators would be in order, if for no other reason than to avoid piling further errors upon past misjudgments, making the AK-LNG project even harder to salvage when the day for doing so finally arrives.

Scott Hawkins is an economist, business owner, candidate for governor of Alaska, and 35-year resident of the state.

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