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Walker needs $92 million more for Medicaid expansion

The Walker Administration needs an additional $92 million for the 2018 fiscal year to cover the extra costs resulting from his Obamacare Medicaid expansion.

That’s on top of the additional $100 million more he needed as a supplemental for his 2017 budget, and the $30 million supplemental needed for the program’s inaugural year, 2016.

 

There’s an explanation, said Valerie Davidson, Health and Human Services commissioner. More people enrolled in Medicaid than the she projected. But that was largely due to Alaska’s weak economy, she told the Senate Finance Committee.

ABNK: ABLE-BODIED, NO KIDS

In 2015, before it grew, Alaska’s Medicaid program covered 120,000 low-income children, pregnant women, and people with disabilities in what is considered by the industry as Cadillac health care coverage.

The Obamacare expansion, signed by executive order by Gov. Bill Walker in 2015, was to cover about 20,000 more.

These expansion enrollees are able-bodied adults without children making less than $1,707 per month for single adults, or $10.66 per hour,  about a dollar more per hour than Alaska’s minimum wage. The income cutoff is $2,303 per month for a couple.

FUN WITH NUMBERS

In 2016, the Walker Administration claimed that 45 percent of the 20,000 expansion adults were employed Alaskans.

But in 2018, the Administration is telling a different story: The Department of Health and Human Services told Senate Finance that 60 percent of enrollees were already employed, a third more than it said were employed in 2016.
The estimate may have changed in response to some legislators are talking about creating a work requirement for Medicaid expansion recipients — able-bodied adults without children.
In fact, there’s a movement around the country to do just that, with 10 Republican-led states studying the change.

But the Walker Administration is not open to that work requirement option, according to spokesman Clinton Bennett, even though the Trump Administration has opened the door for requiring able-bodied recipients to either get a job — any job — or enroll in job training.

“The Department of Health and Social Services is not considering such changes to Alaska’s Medicaid program at this time. A majority of Alaskans enrolled in Medicaid are children, retirees, disabled individuals, or are living in working households,” Bennett said in a statement.

WORKING IS A LIFESTYLE CHOICE

In 2015, critics warned that the Obamacare Medicaid expansion would create a tax cliff, where earning one single dollar over a set amount would plunge lower-income workers into owing several thousands of dollars for mandated Obamacare insurance.

The concern expressed back then was that expanding Medicaid would diminish the incentive to work and would hurt the economy.

In Alaska, it was predicted that 4,000 able-bodied adults might drop out of the workforce entirely, if they were able to enroll in the Medicaid expansion. They might decide that working part-time and using Medicaid is a better option than working full time and having to pay for insurance.

That calculus has changed now that Obamacare’s individual mandate has been rolled back by the Trump Administration and Congress. People are no longer forced to buy insurance if it isn’t offered by their workplace.

He’s out: Zach Fansler resigns

SPEAKER EDGMON SAYS CIRCUMSTANCES ‘UNFORTUNATE’

Rep. Zach Fansler of Bethel had one year and one month of service in the Alaska House of Representatives.

He has resigned.

Fansler was the subject last month of an accusation by a Juneau woman that he had slapped and hit her so hard that it ruptured her eardrum.

A police investigation is still underway and it’s believed that several of his Democratic lawmaker friends will be or have already been interviewed by police regarding Fansler’s drinking and other actions on the night of Jan. 13, when the beating of the woman was alleged to have occurred.

[Read: Fansler: Marching for women by day, smacking them around at night]

Fansler’s letter of resignation was on Twitter this morning.

He said he needed to devote more time to personal matters and that District 38 deserved someone who could “advocate on matters of great import to the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Unfortunately, I am unable to do so at this time.”

His resignation becomes effective Feb. 12, and according to Associated Press reporting, he has been paid legislative per diem in advance to Feb. 11.

The Juneau Empire was the first to break the story about the night of drinking and misbehavior from the 38-year-old Fansler, who had been handpicked by the Alaska Democratic Party to bump off family man Bob Herron for the District 38 seat.

Fansler’s resignation comes five weeks after Democrat Rep. Dean Westlake was forced out of office for harassing women in Juneau.

[Read: How Fansler came into office, as told by Politico]

During his time in office, Fansler was a reliable Democrat, even going to far as to publicly condemn Rep. David Eastman for statements made about abortion and rural Alaska women.

‘UNFORTUNATE’ CIRCUMSTANCES DEFENDED

Speaker Bryce Edgmon announced the resignation this morning, but nearly apologized for being forced to ask for Fansler’s removal:

“Calling for Rep. Fansler’s resignation was the right thing to do given the severity of his alleged actions, but that does not mean that it was an easy thing to do because Zach was a committed and effective legislator for the people of House District 38. I also considered him a valuable member of our Coalition,” said Speaker Edgmon.

“The circumstances that warranted Rep. Fansler’s resignation were unfortunate and show the problems in our state with domestic violence and alcohol abuse. I want to thank Rep. Fansler for his service. I also want to thank all of the victims who have braved so much in coming forward. We can all take heart in their bravery.”

“Our Coalition has shown a steadfast resolve to hold our members to the highest standards of conduct because that’s what the people of Alaska expect from their elected representatives,” said House Majority Leader Rep. Chris Tuck (D-Anchorage). “While Representative Fansler was well liked and respected, his actions were counter to our shared values. We felt the decisive action of calling for his resignation had to be taken to maintain the public trust. We are all accountable to the people of Alaska, and I want to thank Rep. Fansler for stepping up and being accountable to the people of his district. He always wanted to do the right thing for his district and Alaska. Rep. Fansler’s decision to resign further proves it. I would like to let the people of the Yukon-Kuskokwim District know that your District 38 office is still conducting business and staff remains available and working on your behalf.”

Heads and Tails: Sullivan meets with Pence; Keith Meyer is platinum traveler

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SULLIVAN, THE LIFE AND TIMES

Sen. Dan Sullivan had quite a week. Enroute to a Republican retreat in Virginia, he was on the train that collided with a garbage truck. Later in the day he met with Vice President Mike Pence to brief him on our state’s strategic military importance to the nation.

That meeting was a briefing for Pence ahead of his scheduled visit to Alaska later this month.

“In what I have called ‘Alaska’s Three Pillars of Military Might,’ I detailed to the Vice President how we are the hub of combat air power for the Asia-Pacific and the Arctic, the cornerstone for U.S. Missile Defense, and a strategic platform for expeditionary forces. I also made sure to remind him how incredibly proud we are of our Alaska-based military men and women and the many missions they serve,” Sullivan said.

Pence will be in Alaska on a fueling stop during his trip to the Winter Olympics in South Korea. The games begin on Feb. 9. Normally the movements of the president and vice president are kept under wraps, but Anchorage area residents might search the skies for Air Force Two on Feb. 8.

TRAVEL REPORT – THE WINNER IS KEITH MEYER

The half-million dollar man, Keith Meyer, who heads of the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, flew to Asia a lot last year. His tab for travel was $138,543 and he went to Beijing, Heishi, and Shanghai, China; Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and several trips to Juneau.

The report is incomplete — surely Meyer is not the only one who traveled for AGDC. But he’s the only one included.

Jim Johnsen, president of UAA, provided what is the most transparent travel report for 2017, several pages long in exacting detail. His travel cost $64,167, about the same as the governor’s.

FIRST RADIO AD OF THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE HITS MONDAY

Dunleavy for Alaska is launching its first radio ad in Alaska this month. The group says it is planning to spend big for the 60-second ad that will be heard across the state, with a budget of $50,000. Dunleavy for Alaska is an independent group, not coordinated with the Mike Dunleavy for governor campaign. Terre Gales is chair.

Scott Hawkins for Governor started its social media video ads last week with what looks to be a big buy.

 

FANSLER STILL MISSING

Rep. Zach Fansler hasn’t resigned, but also hasn’t shown up for work. Presumably the Bethel Bad Boy is still on payroll as a legislator, and collecting per diem. He was spotted driving through Juneau with a man who resembled Juneau Democrat kingmaker Bruce Botelho. Negotiations are underway.

ANCHORAGE UNEMPLOYMENT, SIX-YEAR HIGH

Anchorage unemployment has reached a six-year high, according to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation’s 2018 Economic Forecast. The city lost 2,100 jobs in 2017 and the agency expects another 1,000 jobs to disappear in 2018.

In the previous annual presentation, the group said Anchorage had lost 2,700 jobs in 2016. Our math says that’s 5,800 jobs in three years.

Unemployment rates would be higher in Anchorage, except that so many people are heading for the exits as soon as they lose their jobs. The city’s population has dropped from 300,880 in 2013 to 297,483 in 2017. Those people who left after losing their jobs are not counted as unemployed.

Nationally, unemployment is at a 17-year low.

[Read the full report at AEDC]

NEW REGIONAL PUBLISHER AT ALASKA GATEHOUSE PAPERS

Joseph Leong replaced Deedie McKenzie as senior group publisher for GateHouse Media’s Alaska newspapers — the Juneau Empire, Capital City Weekly, Kenai Peninsula Clarion and Homer News. He was vice president/chief revenue officer for the Albuquerque Journal.

Wanted in connection with murder, and now robbery

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Aarron Settje was already a wanted man. He had five outstanding felony warrants last month and as of Feb. 1,  he has six.

Settje is wanted in connection with the Jan. 13 East Anchorage shooting death of 33-year-old Kortez Brown, who died of a single bullet wound.

Brown fought for his life for 12 hours before bleeding out. The second “person of interest,” Carleton Tarkington, turned himself in. Settje has been on the lam, something that is becoming a way of life for him.

Now the 32-year-old career criminal is wanted for a shoplifting incident that turned into a robbery at Sportsman’s Warehouse on Old Seward Highway.

So is his presumed brother Stephen James Settje, age 27. He goes by the nickname “Penchy,” and sometimes his name is spelled “Stephan.”

On Tuesday, Jan. 30, police say the Settjes went to the sporting goods store, and Aarron took some merchandise, while Stephen waited in the car. The store security personnel confronted Aarron outside the building, and Aarron yelled to his accomplice in a nearby vehicle.

That man was Stephen, police say. He got out of the vehicle and threatened the security guard with a pistol. The two drove off and no one was hurt.

Stephen James Settje

Aarron Settje has had a string of run-ins with the law. In mid-October, he was charged with Class C Felony theft, and earlier that month he was charged with causing fear of injury with a weapon, also a Class C felony, as well as criminal trespass. He has an association with the Soldotna-Kenai communities and may have worked as a laborer at an asphalt company.

On Facebook a few years back, he was joking about how bad his spelling was and revealed too much information about how much dope he smoked:

“Yes yes I had much better things to learn growing up like how to roll a blunt with one hand lol or every combo for every player on mortal combat deadly alliance lol forgot them all thanx to the blunts but shit happends lol.”

Stephen has his own list of priors that go back several years. Add to them “Robbery 1- Armed with Deadly Weapon (Class A Felony), which is what he’s being sought for now.

When caught, both will be run through the risk assessment tool now being used by the courts and corrections system. If they score a 1-9, they’ll be released to await trial. Only if they score a 10 will they need to cool their heels in jail.

With their combined string of reckless disregard for the law, corrections officers could be forgiven for just awarding them a 10 and keeping them away from the rest of Alaskans. But first things first, they are armed and dangerous; do not approach them. Call Police Dispatch at 786-8900 (press “0” to speak with an operator). To remain anonymous, contact Crime Stoppers at 561-STOP or online at www.anchoragecrimestoppers.com.

Least approved governor: Walker honeymoon ended

Gov. Bill Walker is the least popular governor running for re-election in the nation, according to a new poll conducted by Morning Consult.

  • Walker’s net approval  is -26 percent.
  • Walker posted the largest net slide in approval of any governor in the fourth quarter. His approval fell 19 points compared to the previous quarter.
  • Walker is the 6th least popular governor overall.
  • Fifty-five percent of registered voters in Alaska disapproved of his work in office
  • Twenty-nine percent of registered voters in Alaska approved.

A LONG HONEYMOON, THEN ABRUPT SLIDE

The early days of the Walker campaign showed a strong resilience, even as the bad news piled on: He proposed taxes, he bashed and trashed oil companies, he fixated on a gasline, took half of Alaskans’ Permanent Fund dividends, and ignored rising crime. It wasn’t until July of 2017, when voters starting catching on.

Here’s the history:

May – November, 2015

  • Approve 64, Disapprove 21
  • Spread +43

January – May, 2016

  • Approve 62, Disapprove 21
  • Spread +41

May – September, 2016

  • Approve 50, Disapprove 41
  • Spread +9

January – March, 2017

  • Approve 43, Disapprove 53
  • Spread -10

April – July, 2017

  • Approve 42, Disapprove 48
  • Spread -6

July – September, 2017

  • Approve 40, Disapprove 47
  • Spread -7

October – December, 2017

  • Approve 29, Disapprove 55
  • Spread -26

[Read the Morning Consult report here.]

Must Read Alaska asked gubernatorial candidates to comment on the poll results.

Scott Hawkins: It surprises me not one bit that Walker’s approval ratings have plummeted to among the nation’s  lowest. He earned those low ratings by turning the dividend program into a political football and putting forward nonstop tax proposals, rather than get serious about cutting the state’s huge operating budget. This year he introduced an operating budget several hundred million dollars higher than last year.  To say that is politically “tone deaf” is an understatement.  Alaskans are beginning to see that Gov. Walker is leading this state in exactly the wrong direction.”

Mike Dunleavy: “Everyone in Alaska knows who the governor is, and everyone knows what Gov. Walker has done. That’s why his ratings are so low. The people of Alaska are not confused about him. They know he is a totally different guy than the one who campaigned for governor.”

Mike Chenault: Those poll results are not surprising. The governor has ignored or simply forgot his many campaign promises from four years ago and instead has tried to implement a tax and spend agenda, one that I and many Alaskans don’t support. The governor lacks in leadership skills and does not know how to engage not only the Legislature, but the public in trying to promote his goals and plans. Having just a business perspective and background and very little or no other political experience failed in the Sheffield era and is failing in Walker’s administration.

 

 

Parish’s mixed-up math on oil taxes

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COMMON CORE + OIL TAXES = FAIL

By ANDREW JENSEN
ALASKA JOURNAL OF COMMERCE

Nobody could blame Rep. Justin Parish for loving the sound of his own voice.

The problem is that everything that comes out of the Juneau Democrat’s mouth regarding oil taxes following his baritone “Madam Chair” reveals a depth of knowledge that is shallower than a contact lens case.

Parish was on full, cringe-worthy display at a couple recent hearings of the House Resources Committee, where co-chair Rep. Geran Tarr, D-Anchorage, is forcing oil industry representatives to hump to Juneau yet again for more hearings on another oil tax bill that’s going nowhere.

If these hearings are good for anything — other than serving as a constant reminder that the state is on track to see its third straight year of production increases on the North Slope — it is to witness the Democrat-led Majority’s utter cluelessness on policy from definitional basics to more complex financial reporting.

First up was Parish questioning Tax Division Director Ken Alper, whom Democrats have relied upon since taking the House majority in 2016 to help craft their seemingly endless series of oil tax increases.

At the Jan. 26 hearing, Alper had an innocuous PowerPoint slide that noted Tarr’s proposal to raise the gross minimum tax from 4 percent to 7 percent is a 75 percent increase.

Parish, who once wrote that “French is the international language of freedom,” decided to wade into the universal language of math.

“We are contemplating increasing the effective rate by 3 percent,” Parish said. “It’s such a curious quirk of language. Because if we were increasing it from 1 percent to 2 percent, you could say we’re increasing the effective tax rate by 100 percent.”

Ken Alper, director Alaska Department of Revenue Tax Division

Alper agreed, “Yes, doubling it.”

“Which just, on the face sounds like we’re going up to an effective tax rate of 101 percent,” Parish said. “Which is positively bizarre. I would ask you in the future not to muddle things by saying we’re increasing the effective tax rate by 75 percent when on the face of it you’d think we’re going from a 4 percent gross tax to a 79 percent tax rate, which is also a plain language reading of what you have here.”

The only thing muddled is Parish’s thinking but the problem is his muddled thinking came along with an instruction to Alper to refrain from using math because it accurately portrays the size of the tax increase Tarr is proposing.

Parish wasn’t done yet.

[Read more at Alaska Journal of Commerce]

Will Egan run again? Someone else has filed for his seat

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Juneau Sen. Dennis Egan has indicated he may not run for his seat this year. On KINY Radio’s Action Line program in January, he put it somewhat cryptically, “I’ll let you know in February when we talk again.”

He’ll be back on Pete Carran’s show on Tuesday. That’s when Juneauites expect some kind of announcement.

But meanwhile, someone has filed for the Senate seat that Egan has held since 2006: Juneau resident Larry Cotter, a nonpartisan.

Larry Cotter

Cotter is the director of the Aleutian Pribilof Island Community Development Association, which is a seafood company that harvests, processes, and markets wild Alaska seafood from the Bering Sea and Pacific Ocean in a sustainable manner. He has been involved with the Democratic Party in the past, and chaired a Democratic Party precinct in Juneau. He was also a labor organizer at one point in his career.

Who else might run for the Juneau seat?

Chris Dimond, union representative for the Carpenters Local 1281. But he may be thinking of another seat, perhaps Sam Kito’s District 33 House seat. And Jesse Kiehl, who is an aide to Egan and also serves on the Juneau Assembly, has also coveted the title.

There’s also Beth Kerttula, who recently moved back to Juneau after having left the House in 2014 to accept a fellowship at the Center for Ocean Solutions at Stanford University. She served as Director of the National Oceans Council under President Barack Obama.

This is considered a safe Democrat seat, but of the three who might run for Senate Seat Q, only Kiehl is an actual registered Democrat.

EGAN STEPPED UP TO SERVE IN 2009

In April 2009, Juneau Democrats were in disarray. Sen. Kim Elton had been appointed to the Obama Administration to work in the Department of Interior, and had resigned that March. The Democrats offered one name: Rep. Beth Kerttula.

But Gov. Sarah Palin was having none of it. Kerttula had gone out of her way to trash talk the governor after she had been tapped by presidential candidate John McCain to be his running mate.

Finally, after going through a couple of nominees, Palin appointed Egan as a compromise candidate, and he was confirmed by the Senate Democrats and Juneau Democrats.

Egan had already served as mayor of Juneau, and had been on the Juneau Assembly and the Planning Commission. He was the son of former Gov. Bill Egan, and a lifelong Juneauite. Egan is masterful at developing and keeping relationships around the capital.

He graduated from Radio Operation Engineering School and from the United States Army Radio Communications School. And for much of his professional life he has been the president/general manager of AlaskaJuneau Communications, and has hosted the “Problem Corner” radio show, a Juneau classic.

 

Dunleavy PAC raises serious cash

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In the first week, “Dunleavy for Alaska” has raised $560,000 in pledged donations.

The group announced its launch last week as an entity that is a separate effort from the Dunleavy campaign itself. It is what is known as an “independent expenditure group” that cannot coordinate with the campaign.

Dunleavy for Alaska may be the largest political action committee to take part in a governor’s race in Alaska, certainly this early in the cycle.

The group also launched its website.

Bob Penney, Josh Pepperd, Bob Griffin, and Francis Dunleavy pledged the cash, and other donors have stepped forward, said Terre Gales, the chair of the group. Francis is Mike Dunleavy’s brother.

The political action committee will roll out ads on Super Bowl Sunday in Fairbanks, Mat-Su and Anchorage. The ads will show during the game, and will also be seen on television during the Winter Olympic Games.

Anchorage-based Porcaro Communications was hired to place the television and radio advertisements.

Mike Dunleavy announced his race for governor and resigned from the Alaska Senate this month to devote his time to his campaign. He is from Wasilla.

Sen. Wilson report to be released today

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Senate Rules Committee will release a report today on the kerfuffle that got Sen. David Wilson into hot water last year.

Wilson was the subject of a blog and mainstream media report accusing him of putting a cell phone between the legs of an aide in the Capitol.

He disputed that and an earlier investigation found that the report was false. All he had been trying to do is to tell an aide that he had every right to be in the hallway, while she had told him to move along, away from the doors of the Speaker’s Chambers, where her boss was holding a secret meeting.

The videotape of the alleged incident in the hallways of the Capitol cleared Wilson, but that videotape has not been made public, per the rules of the Capitol. Only Legislative Affairs personnel, Wilson, and Wilson’s attorney have seen the tape.

While attempting to clear his name, Wilson held a press conference where he suggested that Speaker Bryce Edgmon should step down from his leadership position, because he had failed in his duties to properly handle the matter and had used it to let Wilson “hang.”

[Read: Sen. Wilson wants an apology, and more]

It was that December press conference that became the subject of yet another complaint. The aide and Edgmon accused Wilson of retaliation against the aide because if Edgmon stepped down, he would lose staff members, and that might cost the aide her job.

It seems like an Orwellian stretch, and yet the report of Legislative Affairs Human Resources Director Skiff Lobaugh says that asking for another lawmaker to step down from a leadership position is a threat to the livelihood of staffers who work for the lawmaker.

Aides come and go in the Capitol all the time and frequently move from office to office, as they are the functionaries who provide office support to those who are governing.

Wilson, a freshman senator, wasn’t aware of the arcane rules. He did what any normal person would do if they had been falsely accused and they were trying to clear their name. But in doing so, he dug himself in deeper, at least in the eyes of Human Resources Director Skip Lobaugh.

He has learned the hard way, that in politics, everything is political, aides can be very powerful, and political adversaries are rarely, if ever, charitable.