Wednesday, July 9, 2025
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Bright, shiny objects

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NO BAG-LIMIT: There’s no love lost between Muldoon Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux and her former supporters. This sign appeared in front of the Legislative Information Offices in Anchorage last week and others were spotted around the city before the ground froze. No word on who is leading the charge, but Alaska Republican Party Chairman Tuckerman Babcock has targeted LeDoux for replacement.

PREDICTIONS: With a razor-thin majority, the new Democrat-dominated House leadership team should double down on their flu shots. They won’t be able to take any days off during the 30th Alaska Legislative session. These are folks who are quite used to taking time off, having served in the minority for so long, and their attendance records suck. Now that they chair committees, no more long bike rides for Matt Claman, District 21, who chairs Judiciary. Neal Foster of Nome will have to be careful not to be gone during his Finance committee meetings during the Iditarod.

Word has it that Rep. LeDoux wants to hire three staffers for her Rules office. But Rep. Craig Johnson only had two last year, after deciding that he needed to lead by example and trim costs. We’ve been told that LeDoux longtime staffer Lisa Vaught and Lesil McGuire staffer Amy Saltzman will be working for LeDoux. And one other person, if LeDoux can swing it.

As for other staffers for the new majority, some conservative staff members will move over but we hear there is a scramble to find qualified people, which means the House committees will be run by inexperienced lawmakers with inexperienced staff members. What can possibly go wrong?screen-shot-2016-11-27-at-9-15-24-pm

CONNIE GODWIN, 90, PASSES INTO HISTORY: Connie Godwin, who spent more than 20 years as the press secretary to Sen. Ted Stevens, died Nov. 15 at a nursing center in Chestertown, Md. at age 90. According to the Washington Post, she was a newspaper reporter and editor for The Anchorage Times.

After moving to Chestertown in 1980, she became a part-time press secretary to Stevens and eventually held the job full time, staying in Washington during the week.

AGDC MISSES DEADLINE: Not to speak ill of the dead, but the transfer of the AK-LNG project to state control is not going well. Alaska Gasline Development Corp. President Keith Meyer told the board this month that the agency blew past the deadline for a signed agreement. But not to worry: “I would say that all things are moving well. I don’t detect anything that’s going to stop the process,” he added, saying the state will still control the project by the year’s end.

MEANWHILE, IN CHINA: The charmingly named Methane Julia Louise is heading for Ningbo, China’s eastern coast, with a load of shale natural gas, liquefied at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal. U.S. shipments are breaking records —  Nine LNG tankers have departed or are scheduled to leave Sabine Pass in November, the most for any month since exports began.

STELLENBOSCH HISTORY REPEATS: From one of our Juneau correspondents, a reminder that Stellenbosch, a part of the Cape Colony, was a 19th Century outpost for officers who had failed in the Kaffir Wars.

When you say you’re “Stellenbosching” someone, it means you are demoting them to an unimportant post, due to their incompetence.

Gov. Bill Walker has created all manner of positions to slide his cronies into them and pay them when they have failed at their last post. He did so for former Attorney General Craig Richards, who crashed spectacularly this year. And he’s done so for former Chief of Staff Jim Whitaker, who was “demoted up” to work on special projects.

Walker is writing letters to enlist municipalities and their lobbyists in pushing for an income tax, but between the gazillions he has spent on people like Rigdon Boykin, Radoslav Shipkoff and a host of other special friends, can anyone really say Walker is running a tight ship that is worthy of our tax dollars?

Rudyard Kipling gets credit for creating the verb “stellenbosch,” when he wrote in the Daily Express, on June 16, 1900, “After all, what does it matter old man?  You’re bound to be Stellenbosched in three days.” (Yes, there will be a quiz.)

GILLAM FOR DOI? FOR GOVERNOR? The question was put to Bob Gillam last week: Are you running for governor? “If we do, we’ll win,” he said, cornered within earshot of Must Read Alaska. Now the news is he is angling for the Secretary of the Interior post, which might make a good gubernatorial launchpad.

RISE OF FAKE NEWS? Oh really? Here we’ve been complaining about the liberal media bias for years, but all of a sudden an outbreak of “fake news” is “news”? Do go on…

OLD MEDIA IS THE NEW FAKE NEWS: Political reporters are demanding that Donald Trump cite the source for everything he says. His latest tweet about illegals voting? They want proof and they want it now. Play the game of “spot the bias” in this NY Times top story.

THAT TIME THEY LAUGHED AT TRUMP OVER VOTE-RIGGING CLAIMS: But that’s him. Not them. A recount is under way in Wisconsin.

“This was a hack-riddled election,” said Green Party member Jill Stein (the media did not say “with no evidence.”) Recounts could take place also in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The margins make it unlikely that the costly move will end up giving Clinton a win in all three states, which would be needed for the overall presidential election result to change.

Hillary Clinton has signaled she is on-board for a recount. Of course she is. Play your second round of “spot the bias.”

Citizens United working well for Democrats

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SUPREME COURT RULING USED MOST EFFECTIVELY BY THE LEFT IN ALASKA

Citizens United, a conservative group, brought a First Amendment lawsuit against the Federal Elections Commission in 2010.

The success of that lawsuit made the group very famous, and very much hated by the Left.

When Citizens won and the FEC lost at the U.S. Supreme Court, Americans confirmed their right to somewhat unrestricted free election-related speech.

The liberal intelligentsia has not stopped gnashing its teeth ever since. The conventional meme you’ll hear from MSNBC talking heads is that corporations dominate elections with their independent expenditure largess, and therefore it’s end times for democracy.

That happens to be wrong.

In reality, since Citizens United won, Big Labor, public employee unions, and billionaires like George Soros have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to sway elections for candidates and causes that increase the salaries of public employees, grow government, and stymie free enterprise through intense regulation.

During Alaska’s most recent election cycle, this played out as well-funded liberal advocates outspent business-friendly groups by a stunning margin in the legislative races.

For every $1 the business-friendly groups spent, Big Labor spent $1.31.

If you add in Big Enviro and Big Abort (Planned Parenthood), the Left spent $1.60 to elect mainly Democrats for every $1.00 spent by pro-business groups to elect mainly Republicans.

The Left-vs-Right expenditures are asymmetrical, indeed, but the effectiveness of the groups’ efforts is the real story.

The Left simply spent their money better: They targeted earlier, committed their funds with precision, knew what they had to spend, and who they would spend it on.

The Right fragmented. It’s remarkable the business groups performed as well as they did for candidates, considering the fracturing.

Besides Americans for Prosperity-Alaska, a grassroots organizing group, just one free-enterprise independent expenditure group emerged to advance business-friendly candidates and agendas during both the primary and general elections: The Accountability Project (TAP), which formed in 2012.

TAP spent $271,000 in both the Primary and General elections this year, much of it in support of Sens. Cathy Giessel and John Coghill. Both had tough races against Democrats (one masquerading as an independent).

The Democrats were well-funded by Big Labor and Anchorage attorney Robin Brena, who serves as Governor Bill Walker’s surrogate, allowing the governor to “not takes sides.”

Joining the Alaska State Senate slugfest were other left-of-center monied interests. The funding was in the form of direct campaign cash as well as a barrage of Independent Expenditure not directly tied to the candidates.

Another business-friendly group, The Truth-Alaska (TTA), chaired by Dan Coffey also put $100,309 in at the 11th hour to come to the aid of Sen. Giessel.

TAP and TTA pushed hard against Giessel’s challenger, AFL-CIO Labor Boss Vince Beltrami, who was seen by some as the biggest threat to clean government since convicted racketeer Lew Dischner, Alaska’s first-ever Labor commissioner under Democrat Gov. Bill Egan.

The Accountability Project also helped unseat Rep. Jim Colver, who was considered an unreliable conservative by thinking Republicans. His re-election hopes were dashed by challenger George Rauscher in the District 9 primary, in spite of heavy spending by Left-leaning expenditure groups.

TAP spent thousands of dollars to defend Anchorage Rep. Liz Vazquez from a challenge by union-backed Jason Grenn, and TAP worked to unseat Democrat-Independent Rep. Dan Ortiz of Ketchikan.

Those two efforts fell short, as did the attempt to bump off Rep. Paul Seaton, another Democratic-aligned Republican from Homer. All three of those winners surprised no one when they joined the Democratic caucus that now controls the House by a thread.

Recently, TAP analyzed spending differences between liberal and conservative groups that played the “independent expenditure” game during the recent election cycle:

  • Business-friendly independent expenditure groups, (TAP and TTA) spent $346,372.
  • Union-enviro groups spent $455,201.
  • Environmental groups (“The Alaska Center,” specifically) spent $72,791.

MOST ALASKA BUSINESSES ENJOYING A FREE RIDE?

A look through the contributors to The Accountability Project and The Truth-Alaska show only a handful of business leaders actually engage in spending during critical elections. They number about 25 in all.

Hundreds if not thousands of Alaska businesses benefit from the policies defended by these few business owners and the lawmakers they support. If more business leaders were to understand independent expenditures as crucial, they could easily move the needle and neutralize the Left’s overwhelming advantage.

And yet, compounding the problem was fragmentation within the business community itself.

Case in point: Some business leaders targeted Republican House member Liz Vazquez for defeat because she was seen as unresponsive to using Permanent Fund earnings to plug the State’s budget gap. Instead, they supported her labor-backed opponent, Jason Grenn.

At the same time, The Accountability Project worked for Vazquez’ re-election in order to defend the Republican-led House majority.

It was so close: She lost by only 180 votes.

If Vazquez had not run into headwinds with some business leaders, the House might not have flipped to Democratic control, which is held by a razor-thin margin.

On the other side of the fulcrum, Governor Bill Walker’s political doppelganger Robin Brena, unions, enviros, and Planned Parenthood, were entirely aligned on their choice of candidates. They didn’t work at cross-purposes — it was all for one and one for all.

Their reward is a Democrat-led majority in control of the Alaska House of Representatives, even though Republicans have the technical advantage.

THIS IS NOT YOUR DAD’S POLITICAL SYSTEM

“The ink wasn’t even dry on the Citizens United Supreme Court decision before the unions started getting revved up” to take advantage of it, said Scott Hawkins, who is the treasurer for The Accountability Project.

The asymmetrical political savvy between the business community and the unions is a problem, he said. For unions and environmental groups, this is their full-time work. Same with Planned Parenthood. But business leaders have companies to run.

“They don’t do politics full time and many of them still think it’s gentleman’s game,” Hawkins said.

The fragmenting of the business-friendly independent expenditure groups’ efforts nearly cost the elections of Reps. Lance Pruitt and Charisse Millett, both of Anchorage, according to other political observers.

“The fact is, no individual organizes the House or Senate. Only a team does that, and the team is either Republican or Democrat.” – Tuckerman Babcock

“The independent expenditure groups on the Left did not support any Republicans, except Rep. Colver, who was an incumbent. But the ones on the right — the business-oriented ones — do not always pay attention to the team approach,” said Tuckerman Babcock, chairman of the Alaska Republican Party. “They are picking and choosing, and it can be both naive and self-destructive.

“The fact is, no individual organizes the House or Senate. Only a team does that, and the team is either Republican or Democrat,” he said.

CLOSING THE DOOR AFTER THE MUSK OX GET OUT?

In recent years, business has been closing the financial gap and using its money more effectively. As a result, the 2016 election cycle nationwide was a Republican sweep. Republicans now dominate the nation’s legislatures at record levels, controlling 69 of 99 state legislative chambers and 33 governorships.

Twenty-five states now have both a Republican governor and Republican-led legislatures.

But not in Alaska. Three Alaskan psuedo-Republican lawmakers — Republicans Gabrielle LeDoux, Paul Seaton, and Louise Stutes — bolted to join the Democrats, and by doing so changed the power structure of the Alaska House of Representatives to be beholden to Big Government and Big Labor. The Musk Ox Coalition pulled off a coup against its own Republican Party.

TIME, TREASURE, AND TALONS

Labor and environmental groups have another advantage: Timeliness. They have pots of money they can easily and quickly transfer into independent expenditure groups. As a result, they get their talons sunk deeply into legislative races early in the election cycle.

The business community in Alaska, however, doesn’t get into the mood until they hear the campaigns are in full swing and start to fear the outcome. By then, the Left has already been on the airwaves for weeks and many voters have made up their minds — quite a few may have already voted early or absentee. That means the late-arriving dollars have barely half the impact they might have had if they’d been available earlier in the cycle.

A natural counterbalance to left-leaning groups, the business trade associations, have the resources to engage earlier. But, they have been largely missing in action on the independent expenditure front. Most such business associations in Alaska have been reluctant to support independent expenditures for candidates, although they have shown a willingness to engage in defeating hostile ballot initiatives. This is another example of the asymmetry between Big Labor and business advocates.

An important exception to this rule is The Alaska Chamber of Commerce. This year, the State Chamber stepped up with about $30,000 in funds for both The Accountability Project and The Truth-Alaska.

Chamber President Curtis Thayer is well versed in today’s political realities and has been effective in explaining the stakes to his executive board.

The stakes are high indeed. Over the next two years, the House majority and the governor are likely to exert tremendous pressure on the Senate’s solid Republican majority to go along with debilitating increases in oil taxes, and a grab-bag of other taxes and fees on households, business and industry, all in the service of supporting higher State spending than Alaska can possibly afford.

The loss of the Alaska House to Democrat control has weakened considerably the firewall protecting the business community from the governor’s many business-hostile policy proposals.

These stakes will only get higher. Until the business community fully engages and eliminates the asymmetry between it and the left-of-center groups, things may go sideways for Alaska’s private sector.

Cuba libre: After Fidel, what will Raul do?

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RAUL CASTRO WAS NOT LARGER THAN LIFE. HE WAS HUNCHED OVER A BAR NAPKIN

I walked into the dining room on the sixth floor of the Hotel Nacional de Cuba, and there I shook hands with Raul Castro.

It was 2004 and I was engaged in a humanitarian trip to Cuba, an outreach to the fragments of the Anglican-Episcopal empire that worked quietly for the poor, some who were under the crushing thumb of Communism.

We had brought clothing and toys for children — our way of bridging the gap between the free world and the Communist fortress. The people had nothing. The children literally had no toys — none. We had to show them how to use the yo-yos with which we loaded down our suitcases.

We visited with doctors, priests, had our requisite number of mojitos, and — when our Communist minder allowed — we escaped her keen scrutiny to visit with ordinary Cubans. Fact-finding, it was — and I have not written of it until this day.

My meeting with Raul was anything but ordinary. He was hunched over a paper napkin, talking business with a mall developer from the States, who was a very good friend of mine and a fellow traveler on Episcopal mission. A Christian who was born in Lebanon and was now an American, he had the toughest time getting into Cuba with us, and very nearly was turned away because of his birth country showing on his passport. Communists in Cuba are very opposed to terrorists of any sort.

But now, the Cubans were loving him: From the looks of it, my friend and Raul were best buddies planning a strip mall or two in Havana. But of that detail I will never know.

What I did find out is that if you’re on the sixth floor of the Hotel Nacional, you could find any manner of business being conducted, even under the thumb of the Communist Party. There was an American cattleman, importing cattle from Florida. There were Germans and Canadians, and Dutch, all there to create markets in what they knew would be a nation that could not stay communistic forever. Raul made a practice of being on the sixth floor on a regular, if not daily basis.

Raul, who is today the president of Cuba, was a calm, friendly, courteous and unassuming man, just as he appears in the media. He looked me right in the eyes and was gracious.

It was whispered at the time that he would be running the country in short order. Already it was known that Fidel was feeble at best. I didn’t think he had what it took, but that was just a hunch based on a five-minute encounter.

While I was visiting, it was also whispered — everything sensitive was whispered — that the government still held 29 journalists it had rounded up the year prior during what became known as Black Spring, a crackdown on Cuban dissidents. The Communist government rounded up 75 Cubans that it didn’t like, and that included the 29 journalists (and bloggers), as well as librarians, human rights activists, and those who had used the internet to communicate to the world details of the repressive regime of Castro.

Castro’s government accused them of being on the payroll of the U.S. government, chargin them with collaborating with American diplomats. The crackdown was done during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, so that the media would be distracted. It was a shrewd move — the media was very disinclined to criticize Fidel Castro.

It was a message, however, and the Cubans were highly sensitive to its meaning. Hardly anyone would speak to us in candor.

A few short years later, Raul Castro took the reins for good, and President Barack Obama made short work of reestablishing “normal relations” with our island neighbor. This year, it will be a very hip thing to have a Cuban stamp in your passport, but we mission workers avoided that in 2004 and the Cuban customs agents knew better than to cause us that kind of trouble. You’d have some explaining to do to American customs officials if you sported such a stamp.

I count many Cuban-Americans as friends, and they no doubt are dancing the salsa this weekend. To a one of them, they hate Fidel Castro and all he represents. They have had family members die trying to reach dry land in the United States. They’ve had other family members thrown into prison. They’ve lost their family homes, which were stolen from them and given to members of the Communist Party.

Yes, there will be dancing and there will be toasting across Florida today, where the Cuban-American community is its strongest.

And I’ll be raising a glass of mint-muddled mojito to them. Long live freedom. The Cold War may not be entirely dead, but one of the worst offenders of human rights in our lifetimes certainly is dead. And I’m good with that.

 

That time when Pete’s pants froze to the floor…

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PASS ALONG STORIES, HOLD THE OPINIONS

Wearing torn Wrangler jeans and a thin wool jacket, my brother was checking his trap line as he punched his way through the wet November snow. It was raining sideways, and he was up to his thighs in heavy drifts, a mile from the road.

Jeans are what we wore in the 1970s because that’s what we had from the Montgomery Ward catalog. That, and waffle-weave henley shirts made of an impossibly itchy blend of wool and cotton. There wasn’t a shred of technical fabric anywhere, too much cotton, not nearly enough wool, and no adequate layers for 10-year-old boys.

Wool and maybe some stiff rubberized rain gear would be the layers, if you had them: Smelly halibut jackets, which always seemed to be heavy with Southeast Alaska southeasterlies. Yellow slicker if you could muster one.

When he arrived at an old deserted FAA cabin, that 10-year-old boy was dog-tired, and the cold had sucked every shred of warmth from his bones. His backpack, heavy now, a cotton-batting sleeping bag, a can of Sterno paired with a can of chili were of little help: The matches were wet, his fingers were too cold to open the can, the sleeping bag was damp.

Dropping those soaked blue jeans to the tattered floor of the shack, Pete laid them out flat underneath his sleeping bag, into which he escaped for whatever warmth his young heart could pump toward his extremities. He figured he could dry the wet jeans out that way, body heat and all.

There he fell asleep — the sleep of a hypothermic 10-year-old boy braving the cold and the dark of Thanksgiving eve in Alaska.

In the morning, the sun rose crisp and sparkling, and the temperature had dropped into the low 20s. Those jeans had become stiff as lumber, ice penetrating every fiber, and they were frozen to the cabin floor.

As the family lore goes, he was stuck for hours in his tighty-whities, curled like a hedghog inside his sleeping bag, waiting for someone — anyone — to come to his rescue.

Seeing as it was Thanksgiving Day and his absence was noted back at the Fritz Cove cabin where we lived, a search party led by my father started out, following Pete’s trapline and ragged tracks to the old abandoned cabin.

That night, we gathered around the shortwave radio and listened to Russian trawlers chatter back and forth, somewhere out in the great vast ocean. The fireplace blazed and the warmth never felt so good. Pete was safe at the hearth.

With much to be thankful for, and we coined the family saying: You can’t have an adventure if you aren’t in a bit of peril. That, and don’t forget to bring flares.

The advice would come in handy over a lifetime of adventures and misadventures.

A few years later, circa 1978, that Alaska-raised brother walked off the ferry in Seward to attend a newly launched culinary school at what is now AVTEC. The gravy I make this Thanksgiving Day was taught to me by Pete, who learned it from the Seward Culinary Academy. People say I make the best gravy in the world, and I take pride that the 40-year-old culinary academy taught me, in a roundabout way, how to properly brown a roux.

CHERISH AND BE GENEROUS

We are traveling or we are staying put this week. We gather with family or we cobble together tribes, and at times we settle for makeshift food – for some meager, for some on a hospital tray, and for some of us, just too much of a good thing.

We talk, watch the games, give thanks, and if we’re smart, we practice forbearance in our politics for just this one day.

Our children, sponges that they are, will hear every word.

As one who has written analysis and opinion for a career, I know well the temptation to hold forth. You will be asked your opinion, but heed my advice: Do not take the bait.

Instead, go for the stories. You’re an Alaskan, so you’ve got stories in spades. They don’t have to be grand stories. They can be about someone’s pants freezing to the floor.

We Alaskans have more to offer each other in legends than any sentence that fades off into a reluctantly uttered, “in my  humble opinion.”

We can leave our political rasps at the door for now and polish the stories of our lives instead. In gratitude, we can blow at the embers of our Alaska lore, and it will rise up like life itself from the Thanksgiving table, surround us with wonder and love, and seep into the DNA of the young people who are seemingly oblivious, but who are, in fact, the keepers of the memories.

We are people of the frontier. At times we indulge in the notion that we are more special because of it. This Thanksgiving, we can make good on that sense of “terminal uniqueness” by delving into the imperfect, hilarious, hair-raising, mind-boggling tales that have shaped our rough-hewn lives.

Dig deep and mine the memories. There you’ll encounter the poignant, the unforgettable, and the formative. Listen and be humble. Go for the ancient truths.

The hand-picked, high-bush cranberries and best gravy on God’s earth will be long gone. The politics will churn and change. Our leaders will frustrate and offend. This we know for certain and this we need not inventory right now.

But, with a bit of coaxing and even a spot of embellishing, the dark-and-stormy-night stories of Alaskans will live on.

Cabinet picks who might be pro-Alaska

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President-elect Trump is filling out his cabinet picks, starting with important security positions, such as National Security Adviser, Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. Some more picks are to be announced today.

Let’s take a look at a strong Defense Secretary possibility, with some biographical facts with which you can dazzle your Thanksgiving meal mates.


GEN. JAMES MATTIS: “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.”

James “Mad Dog” Mattis, who was once on the list for a Trump vice presidential pick, is the odds-on favorite for Defense. He’s a Marine.

Side note: U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan is a Marine. Sullivan is trying to get a unit of Marines established in Alaska, and even brought the commandant of the Marines to Alaska this summer. So far, so good.

Gen. Mattis was born in Pullman, Wash. and is a northwesterner through and through, graduating from Columbia High School in Richland, Wash. in 1968.

A Marine who has never married nor had children, his other nickname is “The Warrior Monk” because of his bachelor life, and the fact he devoted his life to studying and fighting war. He is known to have carried a copy of the Meditations of Marcus Aurelius throughout his deployments.

He also used to publish required reading lists for Marines under his command. President Obama appointed Mattis to replace General David Petraeus in 2010. Mattis retired in 2013.

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ALASKA-FRIENDLY SECRETARY OF STATE? Another western-friendly guy, Mitt Romney, is a leading choice. Romney traveled to Alaska in 2014 to campaign for Sen. Dan Sullivan, and won Alaska’s electoral vote for president in 2012. He’s a favorite among many Alaska Republicans.

There’s also former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker. And some also-rans.
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SEC. TREADWELL FOR INTERIOR? Mead Treadwell, Alaska’s former lieutenant governor, is in the mix for Department of Interior, joining the list of possibilities:

Jan Brewer, former Arizona governor
Mary Fallin, Oklahoma governor
Robert Grady, venture capitalist
Harold Hamm, Continental Resources chief executive
Forrest Lucas, Lucas Oil founder
Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming representative
Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor
Richard Pombo, former House National Resources Committee chairman

House, Senate majorities

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Rep. Bryce Edgmon

HOUSE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY ORGANIZATION:

Recently, the newly cobbled Democratic House Majority announced its organization and these chairmanships emerged under the speakership of Bryce Edgmon, D-Dillingham.

Committee Chairs:

Finance Co-Chairs – Rep. Paul Seaton, R-Homer, Neal Foster, D-Nome

Rules – Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, R-Anchorage

Resources Co-Chairs – Rep. Geran Tarr, D-Anchorage, Rep. Andy Josephson D-Anchorage

Judiciary – Rep. Matt Claman, D-Anchorage

Labor & Commerce – Rep. Sam Kito, D-Juneau

State Affairs – Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, D-Sitka

Community & Regional Affairs Co-Chairs – Rep. Zach Fansler, D-Bethel, Rep. Justin Parish, D-Juneau

Education – Rep. Harriet Drummond, D-Anchorage

Health & Social Services – Rep. Ivy Spohnholz, D-Anchorage

Transportation Co-Chairs– Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak, Rep. Adam Wool, D-Fairbanks

Joint Committee Chairs:

Legislative Budget & Audit Vice-Chair – Rep. Andy Josephson, D-Anchorage

Legislative Council – Rep. Sam Kito, D-Juneau

Select Committee on Legislative Ethics – Rep. Chris Tuck, D-Anchorage

Armed Services – House Co-Chair, Rep. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks

Special Committee Chairs:

Energy – Rep. Adam Wool, D-Fairbanks

Fisheries – Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak

Military & Veterans Affairs – Rep. Jason Grenn, I-Anchorage

Economic Development, Tourism, and Arctic Policy – Rep. Dean Westlake D-Kotzebue

QUESTIONABLE CALL: Even though Sam Kito is said to be dating Commissioner of Labor Heidi Drygas, the Democrats put him at the helm of the Labor and Commerce Committee. See any conflict of interest? We guess that question won’t be brought before the House Ethics Committee, joint chaired by Democrat Chris Tuck.

DEPARTMENT OF HARBINGERS: Now that Democrat Reps. Andy Josephson and Geran Tarr are co-chairing the House Resources Committee, we can expect changes.  Such as their stony silence after Obama’s Interior Department cancelled offshore leases in Alaska’s Arctic through 2022.

Normally, one might expect a robust defense of Alaska’s major economic engine, but under the leadership of the Democratic majority, it’s “go along and get along” with Obama.

REPUBLICAN SENATE MAJORITY ORGANIZATION: 

Finance Co-Chairs – Sen. Anna MacKinnon, R-Anchorage and Sen. Lyman Hoffman, D-Bethel

Rules – Sen. Kevin Meyer, R-Anchorage

Health and Social Services, Sen.-elect David Wilson, R-Wasilla

Judiciary, Sen. John Coghill, R-Fairbanks

Resources, Sen. Cathy Giessel, R-Anchorage

State Affairs, Sen. Mike Dunleavy, R-Wasilla

Community and Regional Affairs, Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks

Labor and Commerce, Sen. Mia Costello, R-Anchorage

Transportation, Sen. Bert Stedman, R-Sitka

Education, Sen.-elect Shelley Hughes, R-Palmer

Legislative Budget & Audit, Sen. Gary Stevens, R-Kodiak

Nikiski LNG plant for sale; is Gov. Walker buying?

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Once upon a time, dating from the late 1960s, the liquified natural gas plant at Nikiski was the world’s largest, built to serve the growing Asia-Pacific market.

Nearly all of the LNG produced there was sold to two Japanese utilities for the past 50 years. But in recent times, shipments have gone in fits and starts as supply and demand waxed and waned.

Nothing has been shipped from Nikiski in 2016, and only a few shipments were made  last year.

Now, just as Gov. Bill Walker is attempting to build the largest gasline project in the world,  which would include a massive new LNG plant at Nikiski, the “Little LNG Plant That Could” is up for sale. ConocoPhillips is ready to exit from much of its natural gas holdings around the country as a debt-reduction measure.

Is the governor interested in buying a small LNG facility that is strategically located to export Cook Inlet natural gas?

Perhaps. As we know, the governor is attracted to all things natural gas, and preferrably under a state ownership model.  Purchasing the plant would fit squarely within policy structure, nevermind whether it pencils out.

During a board meeting of the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation earlier this month, AGDC President Keith Meyer announced that he had toured the ConocoPhillips LNG plant days earlier to look at its capacity and attributes. A few days later, ConocoPhillips announced the liquefaction plant was for sale. Coincidence?

More importantly, is the plant a good fit for the AK-LNG project, which would build an 800-mile gasline from Prudhoe Bay to Nikiski, where LNG would be shipped to Asian buyers?

As they say in Alaska, the odds are good but the goods are odd. It’s a small plant, a small dock, and it’s 50 years old. Conoco has kept it in operating condition but it’s not as efficient as more modern plants. Nor does it have nearly enough capacity to service the 3.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day that is expected from the North Slope and Point Thomson.

The plant operated for six months in 2015 but has not shipped product  in 2016 because the market is flooded with natural gas. LNG is natural gas cooled to minus 256 degrees Fahrenheit, which shrinks the fuel to 1/600th of its original size, making overseas shipping more economical.

GOVERNOR MIGHT BUY, LIKE HE DID WITH FAIRBANKS NATURAL GAS PROJECT

Although Gov. Walker may be interested in owning the historic plant at Nikiski as a tactic to advance the  “bullet line,” a smaller gasline project that the state’s Alaska Gasline Development Corporation was formed to advance, the right buyer would likely not be the State of Alaska.

Government in general and Alaska government in particular has an extremely poor track record taking on projects that the private sector finds uneconomic.  Does anyone remember the Alaska Seafood Center? The Delta Barley Project and the empty grain silos that stand in Walker’s hometown of Valdez to this very day?

A more direct case in point is the Point MacKenzie LNG project: In 2015, Governor Walker blocked the sale of the Titan LNG facility at Point MacKenzie in upper Cook Inlet. Hilcorp Energy had agreed to purchase that LNG plant, which supplies Fairbanks Natural Gas. Through his attorney general at the time, Craig Richards, the governor had the private sector Hilcorp purchase killed by the Regulatory Commission of Alaska. Richards said the State would not consent to the sale due to antitrust concerns.

Then, through the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, the governor purchased the plant, as well as Fairbanks Natural Gas, and the trucks to ship the gas to Fairbanks. The state is now in the LNG and distribution business.

While Walker was assembling assets to form the Interior Energy Project, the price of oil had plummeted so low that Fairbanks residents balked at converting their homes and businesses to gas. The State is now stuck with a huge investment that only serves the original 1,100 customers of FNG.

The Interior Energy Project (IEP) costs continue to mount. AIDEA spent $54 million to acquire Titan, another $53 million to buy the Fairbanks Natural Gas utility, and bonded a $37.7 million construction loan for the Interior Gas Utility for build-out of the distribution system, a combined investment of $145 million, notwithstanding other administrative and overhead costs.  First gas distribution was set for the end of 2016. The natural gas arriving would give the utility revenues to pay off the construction loan.

It hasn’t worked. Miles and miles of distribution pipe built throughout Fairbanks lie empty in the ground, unused. The IEP is well on its way to being as much a boondoggle as the  aforementioned seafood center and barley project.

AIDEA always claimed that State ownership of the project was temporary, but as 2016 comes to a close, there appears to be little progress in completing the project.

The original business case for the State of Alaska elbowing its way into ownership of the Interior Energy Project was made by AIDEA in early 2015 with these projected scenarios:

$54 million dollar investment to purchase LLC membership interests
• Expected sale of Titan and AET assets for $15.15 million, Q3 2015
• Pass on elimination of corporate costs (taxes, return, etc.) to ratepayers and to build capital for expansion
• Develop and negotiate process to transition FNG to a Local Control Entity (LCE) as soon as possible
• Secure additional LNG /natural gas supplies
• Structure financing, using SETS, State Appropriation, Bonds to take out AIDEA investment and finance distribution system expansion.
Exit investment in two years with estimated return of $2.91 million (5.06%)

None of this is likely to pay off anytime soon, and quite possibly never.  The question now is, will Gov. Walker learn from his mistakes and approach State investments with more humility and less hubris?  Or, will he double down on his boondoggle and propose State ownership of the ConocoPhillips plant at Nikiski at a time when the State can ill afford it?

Alaskans who are worried about being stuck with the bill for another state-owned business failure will want to keep a close eye on this one.

 

Three Musk Ox face GOP party sanctions

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Rep. Paul Season, Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, Rep. Louise Stutes

The State Central Committee of the Alaska Republican Party will consider a resolution at its Dec. 1o meeting to withdraw support from Reps. Gabrielle LeDoux, Paul Seaton and Louise Stutes for their violation of Article 9, Section f(5) of the party’s rules.

That section discusses the party’s possible actions to sanction incumbents who do things that are detrimental to Alaska Republicans or to Republican values and goals.

The three, who are known as the Musk Ox Coalition, have joined with House Democrats in the Alaska House to create a Democrat-run majority that plans to roll out an income tax on working Alaskans this year.

The Nov. 8 General Election saw 21 Republicans elected to the House, enough to hold onto a fragile majority. But when those three bolted to become part of a Democratic caucus, Alaska Republican Party Chairman Tuckerman Babcock issued a swift rebuke, inviting them to leave the Republican Party altogether.

In a note to party officers today, Babcock wrote regarding the “defection of three Republican State House members from their colleagues.  The three defectors crossed over and put the Democrats in charge of the State House, for the first time in about 25 years.  This despite the fact that Alaskans voted to elect 21 Republicans to the State House.   Three of our Republican State House members abandoned their team, abandoned their party and abandoned their responsibility to serve.” The item has been placed on the agenda for review and determination.

One member of the Musk Ox Coalition was sanctioned earlier this year and lost his re-election bid as a result. Rep. Jim Colver, a freshman legislator from District 9, was voted out of office during the August primary, and George Rauscher, his Republican challenger, went on to an easy victory in November.

Will such sanctions apply to the remaining three members of the Musk Ox Coalition, who have now joined the Democrats? Babcock has shown no inclination to back down in enforcing party rules and preventing the party from being exploited as a path to office for those who do not share its values.

There is also the possibility of a fourth Musk Ox emerging.  It is rumored that freshman Garry Knopp is being courted heavily by the Democrats in order to shore up their thin majority.

Babcock now considers the Musk Oxen to be defacto Democrats. Sanctions may well include finding Republicans to challenge them in the 2018 election.