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Has the Democratic Governors Association dumped Alaska?

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It doesn’t quite add up.

The latest Ivan Moore poll shows gubernatorial candidate Mike Dunleavy with a big lead — 44.4 percent of General Election likely voters.

Mark Begich, according to Moore’s Alaska Survey Research poll, has 29 percent support, and Gov. Bill Walker squeaks out under 23 percent.

But Begich, in spite of his strong showing, is getting very little financial help from the usual contributors. He’s not raising much money from Alaskans, either.

Normally, if a candidate is seen as viable, the Democratic Governors Association will bring in the financial muscle. It takes millions to run a competitive race for governor, even if your name is Mark Begich. That money would go to the side group, Begich for Alaska.

But Begich’s financial filings with APOC are anemic, and even the independent expenditure group, Begich for Alaska, had only raised $20,000, at last required filing. Begich for Alaska, can legally raise almost unlimited cash but has very little.

They’re waiting for the national money. There’s one month to go. Where is the money?

The Democratic Governors Association had seen Alaska as one of eight possible targets.

Something happened on the way to the General Election.

Bill Walker ran away from the Democratic primary and started collecting signatures to go straight to the General Election. He could not face Mark Begich and win, just like four years earlier, when he could not face Gov. Sean Parnell and win. So he again entered as a petition candidate without an organized party backing him.

A quick review of 30 of the latest press releases from Democratic Governors Association going back two weeks finds there is no mention of Alaska in any of the communications coming from the organization that could help Begich.

No money, and not even a press release about Begich being ahead of a sitting governor?

That lack of campaign money puts Walker in strong position to move to second place.

Walker has the support of the unions and the Native corporations, typical Democrat power bases.  He has made $125,000 in radio buys for ads that are running from now through Nov. 6.

Begich has raised $180,000 so far for his campaign, but as of Aug. 15th 24-hour report, Walker had raised $540,000, and has another $250,000 in an independent expenditure group working on his behalf.

Six weeks after the primary, it’s safe to say Walker is closing in on $1 million in his war chest (including the independent group).

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION SHRINKS TARGET

Earlier this year, Alaska was seen as a toss-up state by both Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, two well-regarded prognosticators.

But two weeks ago, both polling organizations moved Alaska into the “leans R” category.

And not long after that, the Democratic Governors Association narrowed its funding focus to Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Maine, and Connecticut.

Here’s how Cook Political Report sees the governor’s races:

Decisions from national groups who could fund the independent group Begich for Alaska have little time left to bankroll his campaign.

The 30-day reports from the campaigns will be due this week, and Gov. Walker’s campaign team is chomping at the bit, buying up air time for its “air war,” getting union boots on the ground for the “ground game,” all the while knowing that Begich is going into the last 30 days without any significant resources.

Begich may spin this as a positive, but the Dunleavy and Walker campaigns are going to get very loud starting this week, and his message may be lost in the din.

The Ivan Moore Alaska Survey Research Poll, which typically favors liberal and progressive candidates and causes, is linked here:

Ivan Moore Ak Survey September, 2018

This election is about restoring trust

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By MIKE DUNLEAVY

Over the past four years, Alaska’s political class has focused on addressing the state’s budget deficit, and rightly so. When the price of oil crashed, the state found itself facing a multi-billion-dollar deficit.

But as our campaign hears from everyday Alaskans across this great land, a deficit more corrosive to the health of our republic is emerging: a deficit of trust. Alaskans are leery of politicians who say one thing and do another.

When Bill Walker ran for office in 2014, he said he had “no intention” of cutting Permanent Fund dividend checks.

Not long after his inauguration, however, he was singing a different tune. In the span of three years, his administration denied every man, woman and child in Alaska over $3,700 each.

The governor’s dividend-cut policy isn’t wrong solely because it’s bad for the economy – paying Alaskans a full dividend would provide a tremendous boost to Alaska, which suffers from anemic growth, high unemployment, and outmigration. It’s wrong because it severed trust between the people and their representatives.

The Alaska Permanent Fund and dividend program were established by the people in 1976 and 1982, respectively. The people were wise enough then to know politicians would be tempted to spend away the oil boom and so constitutionally protected some of the revenue and created the dividend program to protect the fund.

Since 1982, the dividend program has worked as intended, protecting the fund while benefitting Alaskan families. Then suddenly – after more than three decades – the deal changed. Walker unilaterally cut dividends at the worst possible time and without direct input from the people.

If given the opportunity to serve, mending the trust deficit created by Walker will be my top priority. It’s no secret that I am the only candidate in this race who supports protecting the traditional PFD formula. But I also believe the people of Alaska should settle this issue directly, which is why I support going to the people for an advisory vote before any changes are considered to the PFD – at minimum – and ultimately believe the people should have the opportunity to vote on protecting the PFD in the state constitution.

In our system of government, the people are sovereign, and no change to the Permanent Fund would long survive without their direct consent. Such a vote would restore trust between the people and government officials, and the outcome would be respected on all sides. If the people were wise enough to establish the Permanent Fund and a spending limit, then there’s no reason to doubt their wisdom in dealing with today’s challenges.

Despite the failed leadership of the current governor on this and many other issues, he wants another four years, and is vying with lifelong politician Mark Begich for the chance to accelerate a tax and spend agenda. In every town hall, forum and debate, Walker and Begich are in vigorous agreement. They say we must cut the PFD to save it, that new taxes are inevitable and state spending has been cut to the bone. They’re convinced that wise decision makers in government know how to spend your money better than you do.

But Alaskans aren’t buying it. We know the PFD isn’t broken and state government spends roughly three times the national average per person. That’s why Alaskans support more reductions to state spending, oppose new taxes and know the enemy of the budget isn’t the PFD – it’s out-of-control spending. Unless we get spending under control, government will consume the other half of Alaskans’ PFDs, and no amount of new taxes will be enough. That’s the path my opponents will take us down. I hope to lead us down a different path.

If the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, then Alaskans can be confident I will remain true to my word. I voted on behalf of my constituents against a budget that didn’t pay Alaskans a full dividend, because I knew there was a better way. Alaska is blessed with an abundance of natural resources and enough financial assets to get us through this challenge. With the right leadership and policies in place, we can resolve the budget deficit without PFD cuts and new taxes. If we control state spending and maintain a competitive, stable business climate, Alaska will grow its way out of the deficit.

Elections are about trust. With your help, together we can restore trust in our government and ensure everyday Alaskans have a voice in the big decisions ahead.

Mike Dunleavy is a candidate for governor of Alaska. A public school teacher, principal and superintendent for more than two decades in Koyuk, Kotzebue, and the Mat-Su Valley, Dunleavy served on the Mat-Su Borough School Board and in the Alaska State Senate.

The female ‘black-out’ day on Facebook is a sign…

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…THAT SOME FACEBOOK USERS NEED TO TAKE A BREAK

If you’re a woman with Facebook friends from all sides of the political spectrum, then you likely received an invitation to turn your Facebook profile picture all black today, to show the world what it would be like without women in the world.

“Tomorrow, female blackout from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Its a movement to show what the world might be like without women. Your profile photo should just be a black square so that men wonder where the women are. Pass it only to women … It’s for a project against domestic abuse. It is no joke. Share it.”

That’s the note that has been making the rounds, and it’s coming from good-hearted women who want to make a point. But they may not be making the point they hope to make.

TAKE THAT, WORLD!

Is life really that bad in the USA, where unemployment is the lowest in generations, where women have more power and more voice than at any time in the history of the world?

May we suggest a flower, a kitten, or a photo of a gorgeous fall day instead of a black box of rage. These are things that people enjoy on Facebook. They don’t enjoy seeing people sulk because the world isn’t perfect.

Today’s black-out is simply fuel to the fire that is turning Facebook into a toxic neighborhood, filled with people who, like the governor of Alaska’s chief of staff, cannot resist going nuts against those who disagree with him.

Instead of black-out time, several Facebook users are taking a simple time-out until the Kavanaugh hearings are done. They have decided that Facebook is ruining their good opinions of people and the world at large. They are spending more time with their families, cooking, caring for others, and getting out and about.

If you’re spending more than 20 minutes a day on Facebook, and if all your friends’ posts are grievances, it’s definitely time for a mental health break from Facebook. You will not miss anything. The world will still be imperfect when you get back.

Helicopter crash in Lituya Bay; one survivor, three missing

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PEPPERD FAMILY MEMBERS MISSING

(Check back, as this story will be updated)

Three people are missing after a brand new helicopter went down in the water between Juneau and Yakutat.

Among those missing are Josh Pepperd, president and CEO of Davis Constructors and Engineers.

Pepperd’s two sons were on the plane, and one of them has been found alive. In addition to the father and son who are missing, David King, a helicopter pilot who owns Last Frontier Air Ventures in Palmer, was on board.

The Coast Guard rescued 14-year-old Aiden Pepperd on Friday near Lituya Bay, and today is searching for the other three people.

Aiden was flown to Sitka by a Coast Guard Air Station Sitka MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crew, where he was treated for mild hypothermia, according to the Coast Guard press release. He was later transferred to  an Anchorage hospital where he is in intensive care with internal injuries.

A Jayhawk helicopter crew is combing the area along with a Civil Air Patrol aircraft out of Juneau, according to the USCG report. Joining the search is the Coast Guard Cutter Bailey Barco, which is also has a small boat crew searching the shoreline.

Two handlers with canines from the Southeast Alaska Dogs for Ground Search were brought in via Coast Guard helicopter but were not able to locate any sign of the helicopter’s passengers.

A C-130 aircraft crew with the 211th Rescue Squadron for Alaska Air National Guard’s 176th Wing out of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage was also on scene searching.

The helicopter crashed in the water approximately 100 yards from the shoreline of a beach about three miles east of Lituya Bay.The Coast Guard located sections of the crashed helicopter’s fuselage, engine, rotor head, and front and rear seats washed up on the beach today but not any sign of the passengers. 

The Coast Guard 17th District command center in Juneau initially received an overdue aircraft alert at about 6:30 pm Friday from the Juneau Flight Service Station.

The alert stated a private helicopter with four people aboard was expected to arrive in Yakutat Friday, but had not arrived.

A Jayhawk helicopter left Sitka at 8:15 pm and went to the last known signal location from the helicopter’s GPS, and then landed landed on the beach about three miles east of Lituya Bay, where the crew’s rescue swimmer located the boy.

“We did not locate any other survivors tonight but the Coast Guard and others will conduct a thorough search Saturday,” said Lt. Kellen Browne, helicopter co-pilot for Friday’s rescue.

Two adults and two adolescents were aboard the crashed helicopter, which had just been purchased new from the factory in Texas. The pilot was said to have 40 years of flying experience, including Alaska flight time in both fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft.

The itinerary for the single-engine helicopter was from Grand Prairie, Texas to Wasilla. 

The Pepperds had just purchased the helicopter new. Airbus Helicopters had posted this photo on the company’s Facebook page when the family took possession on Sept. 26 in Texas:

Josh Pepperd is one of the top three contributors to the Dunleavy for Alaska political group that operates separately from the campaign. The other top contributors to that group, chaired by Terre Gales, are Francis Dunleavy, Bob Penney, and Scott Hawkins.

That is NOT Dean Westlake

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When Must Read Alaska blows it, we blow it big time.

Earlier this week we were sent an image by someone in the media who identified a gentleman dancer as former Rep. Dean Westlake.

Whether we were being gamed or if it was an honest case of mistaken identity, this writer takes the blame fully.

He really looks like Westlake, but a happier-go-lucky version of him.

The other gentleman dancer is Gov. Bill Walker. Unless he has his own doppelgänger.

In the “Go Big or Go Home” error department, it’s mea culpa.

 

An open house in Juneau you won’t want to miss

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ROOMS WITH A VIEW, AND A PRIME LOCATION

Transition teams, start your engines.

The house went on the market just a day ago. It won’t last.

The home is owned by the governor’s daughter and her husband, Tessa Walker-Linderman and Dennis Linderman.

Whatever the reason, if you or another member of your circle is interested, this is a truly lovely location in Juneau with sweeping views of the channel, a southern exposure and has been on the market just one day.

Listed at $449,900 for a three-bedroom, 2-bath home, it’s situated directly across the street from the Governor’s Mansion. That’s $262 per square foot. And it was built before statehood, in 1887.

To see the house, head there from noon to 2 pm on Saturday, where it’s in move-in ready condition, according to the Zillow listing.

The Juneau Assessor’s Database shows the total property value to be at $398,413:

Former top cop endorses Dunleavy

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ALSO, CURRENT TROOPER DIVISION DIRECTOR QUITS WALKER ADMINISTRATION?

The Mike Dunleavy for Governor campaign picked up the endorsement of former Department of Public Safety Commissioner Joe Masters today.

The endorsement was announced via Facebook. Masters, who is Inupiaq, retired in 2013 from the department and works in the private sector.

Meanwhile, Col. Hans Brinke, current director of the Alaska State Troopers at DPS for the past 18 months, has reportedly stepped down, effective Oct. 2.

That announcement was made in an internal memo from Department of Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan.

There has no official announcement of Brinke’s retirement. The memo was passed along to Must Read Alaska.

Brinke was part of the 41st recruiting class at the State’s law enforcement academy in Sitka, and he rose through the ranks, working in patrol both in rural and urban settings. He also was a K-9 handler and drug investigator, then became captain in Anchorage.

Hans Brinke

Brinke replaced Col. Jim Cockrell, who had headed the Troopers in 2014.

This is a developing story. Check back for details.

LOGO BLOWBACK?

In August, the State Troopers’ recruiting division unveiled a new logo and motto, paying an advertising agency to rebrand the agency in an effort to improve recruiting. That logo is now prominent on the Trooper’s Facebook page and on a couple of recruiting vehicles.

A group of retired troopers wrote letters to the governor and protested the new motto and logo. Over 200 retired troopers signed the letters. The new logo made the news, as it was unveiled at the Alaska Sate Fair.

Then, a retired Trooper sent his meritorious and courage awards back to Commissioner Walt Monegan, saying the medals were not worth anything anymore, if the Troopers no longer stood for “Loyalty, Integrity, Courage,” the former motto.

It’s unclear how extensive the use of the new logo and the new “Guardians of the 49th” motto was going to be. The goals may have only been limited to recruiting purposes, but was announced as the outward face of the department and was widely panned in the law enforcement community.

The Troopers have 389 sworn officers and many vacancies.

Retired troopers blast new logo

State Troopers have new logo, slogan for recruiting

New Permanent Fund chair: Craig Richards

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Former Attorney General Craig Richards is reported tonight to have been elected the chairman of the Alaska Permanent Fund Board of Trustees, replacing Bill Moran of Ketchikan. Carl Brady remains vice chair.

The election came at the end of the board’s two-day meeting and the announcement was vaguely referred to in a press release by the corporation, which manages $65 billion in investments for the State of Alaska.

Richards is the former law partner of Gov. Bill Walker and is vice president and general counsel of Bering Straits Native Corporation. His experience is in finance, oil and gas, tax law, and now government. He was swept into office with Walker in 2014 and served as Attorney General for two years before quitting suddenly in 2016.

After leaving the Department of Law, Richards was appointed to the Board of Trustees, and reappointed for a four-year term in 2017, replacing Larry Cash.

After he left as Attorney General, Richards worked as a private attorney for a time, with a contract with the Governor’s Office that was worth $50,000.

In that role, he presented a plan to the Permanent Fund Trustees to buy the distressed oil tax credit debt of the State in a complicated arbitrage arrangement, after Gov. Bill Walker quit paying the oil tax credits that were due the small explorers.

The board panned the idea after listening to the Richards’ presentation, which would have had the Permanent Fund buying the tax credits at a discount, and then selling them to other buyers for a higher amount, thus making money by short-changing the companies that were owed.

Moran was first appointed to the board in 2006, and was reappointed in 2014 by Gov. Sean Parnell; he served as the vice-chair from 2007–2010 and as the chair since 2010.

Anchorage is $6 million in the hole? What happened?

BY THE ANCHORAGE DAILY PLANET

Here is something unsettling: The city does not know why it is as much as $6 million in the hole instead of posting a $2 million budget surplus for this fiscal year.

Some on the Assembly say they will not vote for the 2019 budget until the city’s annual budget audit is complete, even preparing a resolution to urge the financial report’s completion. The audit has been delayed while officials wrestle with seemingly endless glitches in the city’s $80 million-and-counting  business software system.

Until the audit is complete nobody is sure what the budget numbers are, and the Assembly must approve a budget by Dec. 10 – or meet every day thereafter until one is approved.

The mistake is being blamed on a city worker who goofed while transferring data from the old software system to the new system.

City Budget Director Lance Wilber says he cannot immediately explain the deficit, the Anchorage Daily News reported, and the city may have to reduce services because of it.

“We’re trying to figure out what in the calculations or the system of fund balance is leading us to a negative situation,” the ADN reported Wilber saying. “Honestly, I do not know.”

Count us among those not comforted by all that.