A new poll conducted by the National Republican Congressional Committee shows that Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Nick Begich are in a statistical tie, with Peltola leading 45-45%, and a margin of error of 4.86%.
The poll was conducted after Republican Nancy Dahlstrom dropped from the race for Congress two weeks ago. The polling company, Cygnal, surveyed 400 likely general election voters from all political stripes.
This is the first poll that has been released since the Aug. 20 primary.
The Cygnal survey shows Alaska’s congressional race to be one of the most competitive in the country. While Begich has been outspent by Peltola by more than 10-to-1, he has outworked her and the poll shows he has a favorability rating of +10. Some 47% are favorable to Begich and 37% are unfavorable.
Peltola has a 51% favorable and 43% unfavorable rating.
When people are given reasons to support Begich or to not support Peltola, the numbers were overwhelming.
“We are not a purple state. Alaskans bleed red. Republicans have got to do a better job at getting out their message and executing campaign strategy, because the electorate is no-doubt with us on the issues,” said Bernadette Wilson, owner of Moneyball Strategies and senior advisor to the Nick Begich for Congress campaign.
Telling in this calculus is that the Peltola campaign has not released any polling data for months.
Complicating things for Peltola is that her party is now suing to get another Democrat off the general election ballot. Eric Hafner, a prisoner serving time for bomb threats and other threats, is a Democrat who wants to represent Alaska, and he could shave hundreds of votes off of Peltola.
In order to rig the elections, the Alaska Democratic Party has hired the nation’s top Democrat election lawyer, Marc Elias, and has sued the Division of Elections to get Hafner off the ballot and give their preferred Democrat a better chance. This could backfire on Peltola if voters see that she and her party are trying to misuse their ranked-choice voting system that they support by litigating against other candidates. It’s a bad look for the Democrats in Alaska and shows how desperate.
I DO NOT TRUST any of the polls!!! I find these numbers bogus.
Why not? All the big name polls picked the winner in 2016 presidential as well as the all the major fake news outlets.
If it weren’t for DJT collusion with the Russians they would have all been right
Andy, dude what pot are you smokin?
still with the Russian story, eh?
Democrat comment. Ignore. We are behind NB3 1000% for the big win.
Dam sun! Its a race!
When I studied statistics, I was told that it required at least 1200 randomly chosen participants to get a statistically accurate result.
I’m fairly certain there aren’t 1200 “likely voters” in Alaska who will talk to pollsters.
Regression to the mean occurs at 32 measurements and gets tighter from there.
Reminder. When it comes to polls, the Democrats are the home team. They automatically get a three point lead in the betting pools. If Begich and Peltola are tied, it really means Begich is three point ahead.
I don’t know about that. Polls in Alaska tend to undercount the rural villages, who vote heavily (D). Peltola is likely significantly ahead. But this shows Begich has a very good chance.
Valid point. I am using national numbers here.
From the article: “Mary Peltola and Republican Nick Begich are in a statistical tie, with Peltola leading 45-45%, and a margin of error of 4.86%.”
Okay….. ???
The anecdotal information I have, almost all from SE, and Juneau in particular, supports this information. Republicans running for statewide office do not often do that well in Juneau but Nick Begich appears to be the exception. Begich will very easily best Trump in Juneau BTW.
Peltola’s silence on the gun confiscation rhetoric of Harris now, and Biden earlier, is much cited; ban assault rifles, ban semi-autos, ban 9 MMs, limit magazine capacities, reduce ammo that can be kept on hand, require guns and ammo to be kept in separate, locked containers, etc. Harris trying to take political advantage of every shooting incident doesn’t sit well with Alaskans, and we don’t know if Peltola is willing to speak to Lower 48 Democrats with firearm facts agreed by almost all Alaska voters. There almost certainly are some AR platform rifles among her almost 200 long guns, and right now she could be making Democrats in Congress and the White House aware of that.
Many say that Peltola is claiming far too much of the credit for Willow, and they’re tired of hearing of it. Trying to use the abortion matter to split Alaskans is a criticism I have heard several times. Biden locking up another 28 million acres of Alaska is being associated with Peltola. There is lots of suspicion about the huge amounts of dark money coming to Peltola.
Any candidate billed as conservative while winning in the communist cesspool called “Juneau” needs their conservative credentials re-examined.
Thank you for putting forth policy issues of Peltola.
It’s hard to believe she has approx 50% of the vote.
After the Begich sycophants savaged Nancy unmercifully – I wonder if their lack of excitement to support Begich comes into play.
Never thought I’d see the day when a Democrat would hold our only House seat!
I have some doubts about Begich – but, he is light yeArs better than Peltola.
If the people of Alaska were informed and not indoctrinated by our leftist leaning media, Mary would be polling in the 20% area. But no, the people don’t seem to care much. Mary followed democrat party lines in her voting, even when it hurt our state and the “working” class. The ads running on TV in support of Mary are out right lies.
We need Nick Begich! Peltola Has only harmed Alaska as they continue the shutting down of Alaska!
Bernadette is delusional. This is, at best, a purple state.
🤜🤛 Correct! Just look at the legislature and it’s obvious. If AK truly bled red, there would be a minimum 3:1 red/blue in house and senate. Instead, it leans left, which can only be a reflection of the people who would vote them in.
Sadly,
How can Mary possibly have a 51% approval?
Oh yeah. She’s a democrat.
I was thinking the same thing, but figured this is typical of the un-informed. They listen to the pabulum in her advertisements, but have no clue what her actual record is. The unfavorable figure is from those who are paying attention.
Peltola’s campaign ads against Nick are so disgusting. They demonstrate what kind of person Mary really is. Nick, our family is getting ready to endorse you and then have a monster barbecue in your honor. We may even get a former governor to attend.
This is a test……if Alaskans send Mary back to DC……we are officially not a serious people…….
Everyone needs to share far and wide about the Demonrats suing the Division of Elections because another demonrat made it into the top four. Lol It was OKAY for the Republicans to have to split the vote however.
Talk about splitting the vote – in this case, not having to split it now: thank you again to the other Republicans that dropped out so that Republicans could focus on ONE candidate.
If Begich had done that 2 years ago when he finished in third place twice – Peltola never would’ve won that race.
The strength of the incumbents is with independent voters – and the one in five voters that voted for Nancy that aren’t excited about Begich’s candidacy.
Crazy times ….
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