New poll shows Begich pulling neck-and-neck with Peltola

A new poll conducted by the National Republican Congressional Committee shows that Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Nick Begich are in a statistical tie, with Peltola leading 45-45%, and a margin of error of 4.86%.

The poll was conducted after Republican Nancy Dahlstrom dropped from the race for Congress two weeks ago. The polling company, Cygnal, surveyed 400 likely general election voters from all political stripes.

This is the first poll that has been released since the Aug. 20 primary.

The Cygnal survey shows Alaska’s congressional race to be one of the most competitive in the country. While Begich has been outspent by Peltola by more than 10-to-1, he has outworked her and the poll shows he has a favorability rating of +10. Some 47% are favorable to Begich and 37% are unfavorable.

Peltola has a 51% favorable and 43% unfavorable rating.

When people are given reasons to support Begich or to not support Peltola, the numbers were overwhelming.

“We are not a purple state. Alaskans bleed red. Republicans have got to do a better job at getting out their message and executing campaign strategy, because the electorate is no-doubt with us on the issues,” said Bernadette Wilson, owner of Moneyball Strategies and senior advisor to the Nick Begich for Congress campaign.

Telling in this calculus is that the Peltola campaign has not released any polling data for months.

Complicating things for Peltola is that her party is now suing to get another Democrat off the general election ballot. Eric Hafner, a prisoner serving time for bomb threats and other threats, is a Democrat who wants to represent Alaska, and he could shave hundreds of votes off of Peltola.

In order to rig the elections, the Alaska Democratic Party has hired the nation’s top Democrat election lawyer, Marc Elias, and has sued the Division of Elections to get Hafner off the ballot and give their preferred Democrat a better chance. This could backfire on Peltola if voters see that she and her party are trying to misuse their ranked-choice voting system that they support by litigating against other candidates. It’s a bad look for the Democrats in Alaska and shows how desperate.