Murkowski tanks in latest Alaska poll, drops 75 points among her progressive base, as Democrats attack

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A flyer circulated by Democrats turns its venom on Sen. Lisa Murkowski over her vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

US Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s standing with Alaska voters has taken a serious hit, according to a new poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research from July 29 to August 1.

As she toys with the idea of running for governor, the poll shows a dramatic downturn in her favorability ratings, especially among moderate and progressive voters, once key components of her support base.

Murkowski’s overall favorable rating now stands at 33%, down 13 percentage points from April. Her unfavorable rating has risen to 60%, up 15 points over the same period. This marks a net favorability swing of negative 28 points, a steep decline in just four months.

Breakdown by Political Affiliation
  • Moderates: Murkowski’s net favorability among moderate voters dropped from +28 in April to +2, a 26-point fall.
  • Progressives: The decline was even more pronounced among progressives, where her net favorability plummeted from +54 to -21, a 75-point drop.
  • Conservatives: Her ratings among conservatives remain largely unchanged at -64, reflecting a long-standing dissatisfaction.

The erosion of support from progressives and moderates raises questions about Murkowski’s political future. Once seen as a centrist who could navigate Alaska’s unique political terrain, she now finds herself isolated from both the left and the right. At age 68, she has two years left in her Senate term. She will be 70 during her next campaign for Senate, but if she decides to run for governor, she’d be 70 during her first year of office. Either way, it’s a big decision.

Much of the recent liberal discontent may stem from Murkowski’s support of the Big Beautiful Bill, a federal package she voted for earlier this summer. While the bill included major infrastructure investments and energy provisions favorable to Alaska, it has drawn sharp criticism from her leftist base voters for what they view as concessions to industry and compromises on climate and social safety net funding.

These latest numbers may complicate that path to governor. With progressives now turning against her and no gains among conservatives, she appears to be politically adrift.

The senior senator has lost support from the very voters who once buoyed her through multiple election cycles, including her write-in campaign against Joe Miller and her campaign being behind the rigging of Alaska elections with ranked-choice voting, so she would not have to face a Republican primary. As political chatter grows around a possible gubernatorial bid, this data suggests that if Murkowski intends to mount any campaign, she’s in a world of hurt with the voters.

44 COMMENTS

  1. Lisa’s best and most honorable path forward, in the best interest of Alaskans and Alaska, is simply retirement … becoming a grouchy grandmother … baking terrible cookies … settling to The Villages … etc. She has nothing to offer us and we’re totally disappointed // embarrassed by her disastrous service and association, all of which, she should be ashamed of her lack of performance. But then again, she would have to have the humility and knowledge of shame, which she does not, as she’s completely infected with narcissism.

  2. This is why we have a ranked choice voting scheme. Voters are volatile and not reliable to maintain dynastic rule.

  3. Rob, couldn’t agree more with your comments, particularly you last sentence, “she’s completely is infected with her narcissism.”
    Excellent!
    Cheers,
    Johnson-Ketchikan

  4. A woman without a country. That’s what happens to traitors, cowards, middle of the roaders, poorly
    disciplined, and unfit for the job. They get completely lost.

  5. I don’t know how she could possibly win an election for anything in Alaska ever again. But she won the last election when I didn’t think there was a chance. But as long as we have ranked choice voting, anything is possible. Besides, she knows how it works and how to work it. SCARY!!!!!

    • Combine ranked choice voting with dumb Alaska voters and dumb Alaskans who do not vote, and she surely could win again.

  6. Don’t let her back into Alaska. Her dad was a major effup when he returned from the Senate. The Murkowski royalty run must come to an end. Such a SELFISH family.

  7. Wish Mat Su returns all the Federal Money to improve the Parks Highway over the past few years. Love criticizing when your hands are outstretched reaching for Federal Funding. Love that the State pay for the Troopers rather than a borough Sheriff’s office paid by the locals.

    • Hay Johnny as a matter of fact that parks highway serves the interior not just the mat su. Both Wasilla and Palmer have sales taxes and the borough has real property tax. If there were ever a bunch of welfare leaches it would be the municipality of Anchorage. Both mat su city’s have police departments as well. So what exactly was your beef .?

    • What improvement driving from Willow to Houston is a mine field the pitiful work done to fix the pot hols is a joke. If the state got money to fix it DOGE needs to see who got the money for nothing.

    • John, I’ve lived in the Valley for 21 years now, but I grew up in Anchorage. According to census data, our population is a little over 118,000 people. When Anchorage’s population was that small, the city and borough had not merged yet, and neither entity provided police or fire service for the Anchorage Hillside. Fire service in Chugiak and Eagle River was on a volunteer basis. The State Troopers covered the Anchorage Hillside and Girdwood, and may have covered Eagle River as well, although I’m not sure about that. I pay fairly hefty property taxes, albeit slightly lower than those in Anchorage (the difference is not as great as you may think), as well as city sales taxes in Palmer and Wasilla.

      • Excellent reply. My point would be as you pointed out as Anchorage grew state support was replaced with higher taxes and Municipal services rather than State resources. I think Mat Su should follow and State resources should be replaced by Borough taxation and services. The Valley is now one the wealthiest parts of the State. Look at all expensive new housing built the last few years and huge increase in medical services that are now available in the Valley. Need roads changed from State roads to Borough roads and a Borough police force rather than State Troopers. Thanks for your reply. Small government means local control rather than State control.

        • If the resources your complaining about are the State Troopers then you are wrong. The State Troopers run through the Matanuska Valley Borough doing State business just like I’m sure they run through Anchorage doing State business but they are only used in outlying areas. Anchorage has grown monstrous so you no longer have outlying areas but the Troopers still need to run through Anchorage to get to parts North and South. You’re hemmed in by the inlet and mountain ranges so you don’t need Troopers anymore. I live in the Butte which is not Palmer and subject to Borough not city. When we need Troopers they MAY come out but only if it’s a serious need. Palmer police polices Palmer, Wasilla police polices Wasilla. Believe me those of us outside our nearest city is pretty much left to our own devices.

          • Appreciate your response. From Department of Public Safety, detachment B of the State Troopers served Mat Su with 33 troopers and 4 Sargents. Small government works when the local area controls law enforcement. Sheriff’s Department or Borough Police Force locally funded makes sense. Mat Su with all the new expensive housing and rapidly growing medical complex needs be independent and police itself.

            • I believe you that police services in your situation are almost non existent. Borough needs to step up and provide a locally funded and controlled Police or Sheriff’s department. I believe in small government. All the best.

  8. I disagree Bussell , she should run for governor . That’s best for Alaska , looks like she hasn’t a chance to win .

  9. It is quite telling that about the only thing the Alaskan Left and Right can agree on is that Murkowski sucks. Think Lisa and her handlers will take the hint?

  10. She will still win. Ranked choice voting almost guarantees it. Democrats will rate their candidate first, Murkowski second. When their candidate doesn’t get enough votes Murkowski takes the lead, again.

  11. I would like a little more explanation on the favorability rating.
    For the progressives, she used to have a “net favorability” of “+54”.
    But now it is “-21”. Does that mean that during a previous survey of 100 progressive people, 54 of them liked Lisa Murkowski, and 46 of them were either neutral or did not like her?
    And now, the survey gives her a score of “-21”. What does that mean?
    Does that mean that now, only 21% of progressives view her favorably?
    Or does that mean her favorability rating among progressives fell down from 54% by 21 points to 33%?
    Also, the article says that the favorability for Murkowski among “moderates” is now +2. It’s not -2, but rather it is +2. What percentage of moderates like Murkowski?
    I hope someone can clarify this for me. Thank you.

  12. I told Lisa that if she returns to Alaska and becomes governor, she could appoint me back to the US Senate, and we could make history once again. The Murkowski royalty family would live on for another generation in a revolving door basis. That is, until Nancy told me that Lisa would probably pick Mary Peltola, and not me.

    • Uncle. It’s true. I’m as liberal as can be and I’ve cut Lisa some slack over the years, but her hypocrisy on Trump’s disastrous budget bomb jilted me.

  13. I hope she’s dumb enough to run again (and she is), because I don’t want to see her get beat, I want to see her get humiliated.

    • Just as her father was in 2006, when he lost this run for reelection by the widest margin for any sitting state governor in US history.

      I always love to rub that fact into the noses of the (very few) remaining Frank Murkowski loyalists.

  14. Good Gawd- Peltola could be appointed as our state’s senator. What a horrible, scary thought! Princess is close to Peltola, though- just look back at all the photos of the two of them beaming bright smiles at the camera together. Peltola’s annointment / appointment by Princess would be in character, should Princess ever attain the office of governor. Like I said- that is one scary thought.

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