Divining data from the Anchorage mail-in election

NO EXCUSE FOR NOT VOTING, UNLESS YOU’RE 100

Rebecca Logan, the leading conservative candidate for Anchorage mayor, said she talked to a 100-year-old man over the weekend. He is a voter who has never missed an Anchorage election, “but he refuses to mail in his ballot. He said he has seen way too many things in his life,” Logan said. And he’s not able to get into an accessible voting center either.

She talked to another couple who have waited three weeks for their absentee ballots to arrive.

Logan and volunteers contacted more than 3,000 Anchorage voters over the weekend to urge them to get their ballots in the mail, in a drop box, or into an accessible voting center. They heard many complaints about ballots that were promised but never arrived, and a lot of frustration with the new mail-in election.

Polling from over the weekend shows that Logan is neck-and-neck with Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, a liberal Democrat who is running for a second term.

ANCHORAGE VOTING INTELLIGENCE

• 20,230 Anchorage ballots were received by the Muni election office by March 23, out of the 198,000 ballots mailed to voters on March 13. It’s a 9.27 percent turnout so far for an election that ends April 3. Not impressive but the election is only halfway there.
• Last April 4, 49,370 voted of the 212,782 registered Anchorage voters, a 23 percent turnout that decided six Anchorage Assembly seats and eight ballot propositions.
• The election office processed 4,000 ballots on Saturday. A flood more is expected today, as many as 9,000.
• Chugiak turnout is 9.72 percent, trailing South Anchorage by 4 percent. This area used to vote on par with South Anchorage.
• Eagle River turnout is 8.86 percent, trailing South Anchorage by 5 percent. This area was  also historically similar to South Anchorage.
• Taku Campbell also lags behind South Anchorage by 5.5 percent.
• Anchorage is at mid-point for ballot collections and so far, fewer than half of the voters have mailed in their ballots than voted in the last election.
• Turnout for the mayoral election in 2009 was 58,233 for the first round, and 55,000 for the runoff.
• Turnout for the mayoral election in 2015 was 54,275 for the first round and 70,516 for the runoff.

PRECINCT CURIOSITIES

Voting totals from various precincts as of Friday:

• Eagle River 1&2 = 287
• Chugiak = 101
• Peters Creek 1&2 = 416
• Oceanview 1&2 = 453
• Goldenview = 421
• Bayshore = 337
• Downtown 1-4 = 414

WHO IS VOTING SO FAR

MRAK reviewed available data over the weekend. (Readers can be assured this is not confidential information and that the ACLU has the same data and is working it very hard via phone banks and door-to-door. If the Left hasn’t knocked on your door to remind you to vote, it’s because they know you are a conservative and they prefer that you just let it slip your mind).

• The gender of those voting is about 50-50 male/female (yes, we’re still basically binary)
• 74 percent of voters are over 50 years old.
• 50 percent of the ballot drop boxes are located on public school property, making it convenient for members of the NEA to get their ballots in on time. Here are drop box locations.