By REP. KEVIN MCCABE
A few days ago, I was listening to the radio when I heard someone talk about the “greater fool theory.” It’s a financial concept, one that says someone might invest in something risky, hoping that someone else, a “greater fool,” will come along later and see enough value in it to pay more. But I started wondering if that theory is about more than just Wall Street or housing markets.
What if it also applies to something bigger? What if it’s how you build a state, or even a nation?
The United States and Canada were built by greater fools. Those dreamers, builders, homesteaders, prospectors, railroad men, the people who took the long bet. They didn’t always see a profit in their lifetime. In fact, most didn’t. But they built anyway. They bet everything on a nebulous future they wouldn’t live to see, and we’re standing on their shoulders because of it.
Consider the Gold Rush in California, or the Klondike in Yukon. Thousands risked everything for a shot at wealth. Most failed. But they carved trails, settled towns, and opened trade routes. Or look at the homesteaders who tried to farm the Plains, or even Palmer. Many gave up, beaten by drought, cold, and isolation. But they broke ground that still feeds populations. Ranchers lost whole herds in the winters of the late 1880s, but they kept going and built an industry anyway. The early railroad barons were some of the biggest fools of all. Collis Huntington didn’t live to see the full benefit of the Transcontinental Railroad. Sir William Mackenzie, who tried to unite Canada with steel rails, died bankrupt. But their tracks are still running today.
That’s the legacy I see when I look at the Northern Rail Spur, Port MacKenzie and the Point MacKenzie Rail Extension. It’s the same spirit. We’re being told it’s a gamble. That it’s too risky. That it won’t pay off. That we need an anchor tenant before we build. That’s the kind of thinking that would have stopped every big American project before it ever started. The Erie Canal, the Alcan Highway, the oil pipeline; none of those had guarantees. But somebody had the courage to bet on a future that would justify the effort.
Port MacKenzie is not a mistake. It’s a deep-water port capable of handling the biggest ships in the Pacific. With the right connections, it could ship copper and rare earth minerals from Interior Alaska to Asia, bypassing congested ports in the Lower 48. The Port MacKenzie Rail Extension is 75 percent complete. We’ve already invested $184 million. It just needs to be finished—maybe another $100 to $150 million, if we go by typical rural rail costs of $5 to $10 million a mile. The Alaska Railroad says more. I say let’s do the math, compare apples to apples, and see if our numbers aren’t closer to the truth.
Add to that the Northern Rail Extension, which would bring in even more freight from the resource-rich Interior, Canada, or even goods from the lower 48. That’s worth 3,000 jobs and over $300 million a year in projected benefits.
Thanks to leadership from Mat-Su Borough and Congressman Nick Begich, we secured a $7.9 million BUILD Grant for a barge ramp. And I introduced House Bill 255 to create a regional port authority that could make this a reality, not just for Mat-Su, but for all of Alaska.
The critics don’t get it. They want a guarantee before they lift a finger. But that’s not how you build big things. That’s not how you build anything worth having. Sometimes you have to go first. Sometimes you have to lay track into empty country, trusting that the trains will come. It’s easy to call that foolish. But if that’s foolish, then Huntington was a fool. Mackenzie was a fool. Every homesteader, prospector, and settler was a fool.
And yet they built the backbone of two great nations.
We’re not reckless. We’re not blind. We see the costs. But we also see the opportunity. If we build Port MacKenzie and connect it to the rail system, we’ll open up a whole new trade corridor. We’ll unlock our mineral wealth. We’ll create jobs that last for decades. And if we don’t? Then we’ll have at least tried to do something bold, and our children will have infrastructure to build on, to expand with bigger and better plans. We’ll have done what Alaskans have always done, taken risks, shouldered burdens, and tried to leave something better behind.
That’s what this is about. We’re not building for today. We’re building for 50 years from now. For our kids and grandkids. For a future we may not live to see. We’re not fools. But we’ll risk being called that if it means building something great.
Let them call us what they want. History will remember who built and who sat on their hands.
Kevin McCabe represents Big Lake in the Alaska Legislature.
Kevin, I think you should take up fishing….
Nice thoughts.
I believe the greater fools are those who believe we can’t do what I’ve seen us do before.
We should visionary by growing our portfolio with more renewable energy, but instead we keep hearing this stale argument for same ol’ same ol’ and keep wondering why nothing happens.
Healthy skeptic we worked hard and spent a lot of money on a hydro project that a group of pricks got shut down. That dam would be coming on line this summer if it wasn’t for a bunch of fools like yourself. Doesn’t get any more renewable than hydro. That rail spur from point Mac would remove 100 plus 14.000 gallon fuel tankers a day from downtown anchorage and downtown Wasilla. How much thinking do you need to do about that.??
That is my thinking exactly…being raised an Alaskan homesteader on KGB IN 1959. My newly divorced mom drove the ALCAN with me in her belly and two of my brother’s beside her and her dream of owning 180 acres of land. Good Bless her and all Alaskan dreamers.
Mr. McCabe,
You’ve written a thoughtful article. I admire your reprise of history and can-do spirit.
Alaska is still the “Last Frontier.” There’s so much promise — right here and now, right under our very feet. There’s so much hope in the eyes of most Alaskans — those with vision.
We cannot forget this. We must remain nimble and headstrong. We must not only think of ourselves, but of our children and their wellbeing. They are our legacy. Let’s leave them a bit of something — expansive opportunities.
Thanks for the reminder, Kevin.
SteveG4
Kevin McCabe’s romantic defense of the Port MacKenzie Rail Extension draws heavily on the legacy of dreamers and builders who shaped North America—homesteaders, railroad tycoons, and prospectors who gambled on uncertain futures. It’s a compelling narrative, one that appeals to Alaskans’ pioneering spirit. But sentiment and symbolism are not a substitute for sound policy, especially when taxpayer dollars and long-term maintenance obligations are on the line.
The Difference Between Vision and Speculation
Yes, history is full of risk-takers—but many of those so-called “greater fools” failed, often spectacularly. The Gold Rush brought thousands to ruin. Many homesteaders never made it through the first few winters. William Mackenzie died bankrupt. The lesson isn’t simply that they took risks—it’s that we should learn from those risks before repeating them.
Blind optimism without demand data, market certainty, or cost control is not visionary—it’s speculative. And in the case of Port MacKenzie, we’ve already seen what that leads to: a $184 million infrastructure project that remains unused and disconnected, with no anchor tenant, no clear return on investment, and no binding agreements to justify further spending.
Infrastructure Must Be Anchored to Economic Reality
Port MacKenzie is a deep-water port, yes—but the Pacific Northwest is already flush with deep-water facilities that are connected to global markets by dense road and rail networks. Without committed shippers, viable mineral projects, or long-term users willing to shoulder some of the capital costs, the Port MacKenzie Rail Extension is infrastructure without a purpose.
And while it’s easy to rattle off theoretical benefits—jobs, minerals, trade—the question is not whether those things could happen. It’s whether they will happen, and whether there’s a more cost-effective way to achieve the same goals. So far, no independent economic analysis has demonstrated that completing the rail spur would provide a return commensurate with its additional $100–$150 million cost—or more, depending on terrain and inflation.
“Trying Something Bold” Is Not a Fiscal Strategy
McCabe argues that even if the investment fails, we will have “at least tried.” That’s cold comfort to Alaska’s taxpayers, who are already struggling to fund essential services like education, public safety, and rural health care. A half-complete rail spur into undeveloped country is not a legacy—it’s a liability. Future generations deserve investments that improve their quality of life, not stranded assets they’ll be forced to maintain or dismantle.
Leadership Is About Accountability, Not Just Ambition
Alaska has no shortage of bold ideas. But bold ideas require more than charisma—they require evidence, risk mitigation, and alignment with strategic state priorities. Rail can and should play a key role in Alaska’s future. But that future should be grounded in real commitments, clear economic forecasts, and phased planning that allows for course correction—not all-in bets on speculative infrastructure.
We owe it to future Alaskans not just to build, but to build wisely. That’s not fear. That’s responsibility.
South central Alaska relying on 1 port now isn’t that smart.?? In the event of a natural disaster or a war having 1 port to serve 600.000 plus people seems foolish to me. Of course having 600 semi trucks daily through downtown Wasilla is t overly smart either. If we don’t get this infrastructure built we are doomed.
What an amazingly simplistic view. In the event of a war the Wasilla dock is far enough away that an enemy wouldn’t notice?… or are you saying that the earthquake that might take out the Port of Anchorage would be far enough away from the KGB dock that it wouldn’t be impacted?
Doomed you say? Not even close.
This is a choice that might benefit an occasional contractor but would do very little for the betterment of Alaska without monstrous investment far beyond $7.9mm
Maybe you’re hoping to get your ex-mayor’s boat back? Didn’t she sell that for pennies on the dollar once she realized that Wasilla didn’t actually have a dock? That mistake could be written off as a goofy woman w/ half baked ideas and an inability to think strategically. On the other hand, if you think that the dock is far enough away that it would survive war or natural disaster you may share something in common with her.
Who uses that dock now? Last I checked it was a contractor that ships pre-fab housing into the bush. Whom else… as that’s the likely only entity to benefit from this $7.9mm. That doesn’t mean it’s bad but it does mean that it’s not going to benefit Wasilla to any significant degree and that’s a lot of money to spend for an esoteric return if any. Definitely not doomed.
Wow. $7.9million you say!
Speaking of investments and “greater fools”, where were you when constituents needed your support in the Garrett and Chris Elder investment scheme that bilked more that four times that $7.9million out of 130 families, most of whom are from the Valley?
Oh that’s right, you and your lovely wife were hanging w/ Chris Elder and his fine family while posting on facebook about how Chris was such a great guy as was his piratical spawn. You just don’t get the chance to meet such a fine upstanding ankle monitor wearing church deacon that often. Bonus points for his having been pulled over multiple times while driving drunk (bigger points for getting a DUI w/ a firearm). Some of your supporters leave a bigger mark than others I guess. That guy should have had to wear the ankle monitor outside the pants. You purposefully avoided many inquiries and calls for help over that mess and answered none of them, then you removed the FB posts showing you and your wife enjoying the Elder’s company at their house. Visits to your Valley office were always met w/ a locked door.
We require more of you than the few articles you post during the ramp up to an election cycle. You supported thieves over victims, one of whom thankfully died of cancer and the other currently in Federal Prison and never will repay anyone. Perhaps you should comment on that, Kevin.
Somebody posted on this site that justice had been mishandled under Treg’s watch and the Elder case is a prime example. The exiting Federal Atty for Alaska did the least she possibly could. Her minion misled victims in a town meeting setting and ultimately suggested in court that six years in Club Fed ought to be plenty. Even the now disgraced Federal Judge Josh Kindred asked the lead prosecutor ‘how does six years seem fair for this’?
No State prosecution for Garrett Elder was even discussed as apparently the pathetic Federal effort was good enough.
It’s not… neither are you, Kevin. Alaska deserves better. Without consequences there’s no accountability. The State should yet prosecute Garrett Elder for his crimes and a consequence for you… will be left to the voters. You should hope that many are uninformed.
I never take anything seriously from someone who writes like this and is to much a coward to use their name.
“Writes like this”? By that do you mean accurately, succinctly and in an objectively detailed manner worthy of having read? Here’s the deal, Doug… it matters not what you think nor that you (may) use your own name. Some though may care that you deride comments about authentic issues for subjective reasons, the primary being that you don’t understand or weren’t there. Readers will also care if you rack up a long series of vacuous responses similar to the error you’ve posted above.
We’d all have experienced a deficit had pseudonyms never been in use. From Deep Throat in the Nixon era, Mark Twain in the 19th century and countless others on either side, only the simplest mind would assume such use to be cowardly. That you might not be able to imagine a good application for a pseudonym is less a reflection of a writer’s nature and more an indication that the reader is a simp focused on the unimportant.
You Sir, have provided the written equivalent of an ‘oh-huh’. Raise your game if you’d like to run w/ some of the participants here. That, or you may climb back under the porch and whimper but do so quietly.
There is NOTHING that Rep McCabe can do about this, Scrumptious clam. It amazes me that people think our reps and senators are magicians. Like one legislator can do anything by himself. Ridiculous
A Representative of the people has a greater voice than those he has chosen to represent. It is not that anyone expects McCabe to fix any particular issue but to simply raise awareness and at best rally those responsible for corrective action to do what’s expected of them.
Under no circumstance is a Representatives best response avoidance. To assume so would be well, ridiculous.
Thought-provoking essay, Kevin.
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More flexibility in your narrative might be helpful.
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What’s wrong with expecting guarantees?
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Investors expect return-on-investment guarantees, workers expect wage guarantees, every contract’s written with expectations of guaranteed performance, rail users expect infrastructure performance guarantees, insurors assure reimbursement if guarantees aren’t met, but the public has no right to demand guarantees they’ll never be on the hook for Alaska’s version of California’s high-speed rail project?
(https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-admin-pulls-plug-4b-californias-train-nowhere-project)
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Stalling progress is not the objective.
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You, the peoples’ representative, protecting taxpayers from foreseeable consequences of stalled progress is the objective.
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Shouldn’t the State’s questionable record of well-planned, well-engineered projects built on time, under budget, without too much fraud, waste, and abuse, motivate you to demand guarantees?
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Don’t you wonder why Alaska’s Denali Commission, operated by the four most powerful groups in Alaska, with a virtual pipeline to the federal Treasury, haven’t announced plans to build this thing?
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Point is, constituents you contemptuously dismiss as critics have a right to demand guarantees that what seems like a worthwhile project won’t turn into a horrible boondoggle.
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Instead, your article leaves readers wondering who you’re working for, the railroad industry who have full-time, well-paid lobbyists or the Greatest Fools Of All, your adoring public, …who don’t.
The fools are the ones that do nothing and expect much. There is much this state has to offer us, but there are to many that want a hand out and not work for it. Nobody wants to take the time that is needed to do all of this. This nation was not built over night. I am for the port and the railroad and the road into the Sequena river valley. This open this state up. That is why it is the last frontier
your analogies make no sense. The pipeline was built with private money. The Erie Canal was built by the state of New York not federal tax dollars. The Seward Project makes sense. User agreements are in place to justify the project. Are there any agreements for usage of the new barge ramp? Are the US taxpayers paying for something with no guarantee return? Are there any agreements signed for using the railroad spur that would support seeking funding? When I took a quick look at HJR 14 I only saw one private company, Nova Minerals writing in support.
Red Dog, Nome, Kotzebue, Ambler and the rest of the west coast of Alaska should be connected by rail to Fairbanks before a nickel is spent to do anything further at Point McKenzie. Having the ability to move ore by water is useless if the ore producing mines can’t ship by rail.
Well, generally speaking McCabe during sessions whispers exclusively among his democrats and no one else hears what he’s got to say about nation building per se. Certainly not the mere public so this revelation feels a bit on the abrupt side to the mere republic at “large”. Nation “building” seems to be about on the “please disregard side” normally within AK heretofore except in fishing season when anything along with nothing is possible.
Oh! I thought you said domed city! My bad; my bad. We haven’t got to streetlights or what’z it, “frontier” roads just yet. What was I thinking. Let’s just stop 🛑 that nation building stuff right now. In the lower forty eight didn’t they nation build for 200 years before the declaration of independence! Take your time. Pick your battles royale eh? Later on gnat nation building. It is toooo divisive.
I totally agree with you. Those that say we need all these studies and research should never invest in the Stock Market, Commodities Market, or new technologies. If the State followed their demands the AK Oil Fields would never have been developed because the people and companies that did it had no certainty that they would find oil in market quantities, or be able to build the pipeline to get the oil to refineries. The AK pipeline would never have been built if Ted Steven’s, and a few Native leaders hadn’t settled the issue of the Native Land Settlement giving the Native People a Billion dollars and a major portion of the best land in AK for access to build the pipeline. Many said they could never build the pipeline across the Tundra to transport the hot oil. It had never been done. Connecting the AK RR to the Canadian RR system would result in cheaper and safer transportation or food, goods, and give AK the ability develop industries that could transport their goods through CN to all regions of the lower 48.
We are close to having to import from foreign countries Natural Gas to South Central AK for our electricity and heat because we have never built a Natural Gas pipeline to transport our own gas to Fairbanks, South Central or Western AK villages. Instead they burn the Natural Gas of the wells into the air and recently they have pumped it back into weak production fields to force out the smallest amounts of oil out of weak wells.I worked on the slope and used to marvel at bright candles of the wells burning off the gas in dark skies. Air pollution anyone!
Our current budget situation is a direct result of relying on limited sources of income. The timber industry was regulated away, our fishing industry is suffering hard times and the price and volume of oil is insufficient to pay all the money the legislature claims they need to spend. Yet they meet today to over- throw the veto of part of the largest education bill passed by the legislature without any meaningful requirements for success or return on investment from a system that has nothing but continue to fail their students and performance is rated the bottom of all states. Where is your studies and certainty that the school system will provide a return on this investment.
President Trump is clearly behind AK developing their resources and infrastructure. If we waste this opportunity we will only suffer more in the future.