Third-generation Alaskan Nick Begich, on his second run for Congress, is the favorite to win the 2024 race to unseat Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola, who won in 2022 after Sarah Palin jumped into the race and the last minute and split the Republicans.
As of Election Night, with all Nov. 5 and all the early votes cast through Oct. 31, Begich, a Republican, is ahead. He has 124,632 votes, for 49.66%. Peltola has 113,612 votes for 45.27%.
Third-party John Wayne Howe has 9,710 votes or 3.87% and Democrat Eric Hafner has 2,446, not quite 1% of the vote.
Only 155 absentee ballots came in from the heavy Peltola districts in rural Alaska, which indicates there will not be a lot more votes for her from that region, where turnout was low. More absentees and other votes received will be counted on Friday or next week.
Begich is on course to win Congress. There are not enough votes to get Peltola over the 50%+1 vote threshold.
It’s going to be hard for Peltola to catch Begich. With the outstanding ballots to be counted, she has to do 4.4% better than she has done with those ballots already counted. Begich only needs .2% to get to 50% of the remaining absentees, questioned, and early votes that came in over the weekend and Monday.
Then there is the ranking. Right now, there are about 10,000 votes from Howe and Hafner to be ranked. Peltola needs all of those, which is nearly mathematically impossible.
The caveat is Alaska has to wait to learn how many questioned, absentee and early votes have not been counted yet.
In Peltola’s favor is that the unreported precincts are all rural, and there are 28 precincts unreported.
However, these are tiny precincts, like Shishmaref, where Peltola got 78% of the vote — and prevailed there by a margin of 111 votes.
Not all the precincts that haven’t reported are that pro-Peltola. Shishmaref is one of her strongest. She might gain about 50 votes per precinct; that would be about 1,000 votes.
But with ranked-choice voting still in effect, Alaska may have to wait until Nov. 20 to have Begich declared the “official” winner. The delay in being able to call him the winner impacts Alaska’s role in Congress, as members are ranked in seniority depending on how long they have been in Congress. As happened for Peltola in 2022, ranked-choice voting put Alaska in nearly last place in seniority, another unwelcome gift by the ranked-choice voting scheme designed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski and her supporters.
Thank you all for making Alaska great again….we now have a chance to see Alaska take a new roll in changing American and revitalizing the possibilities in the great land.
I would rather see Alaska take a new role, than a new roll. No wonder this country is in such a sorry state.
You, sir, are using a fraudulent name. First you’re not spelling Begich correctly and Nick Begich Sr. is long since deceased.
Amen! I am praying Nick Jr holds the lead and it gets stronger so that he will be our new congressman!
Let’s hope that we can express our heartfelt thanks to Lisa and her dark money friends for RCV by voting her out next time she is up for re-election…
Who are the 2446 brain dead that voted for a noncitizen who is in prison?
GMAFB
Be interesting to view how “Missie” Murkowski will be addressed with any tolerance within Trump supporting Senate Republicans. Will she take the opportunity to “Leave”the Republican Party,as many celebrities have indicating leaving the country with a Trump win?
Just can not get my arms around her being welcome as a continued RINO without political consequences.
Having a House member in Begich will be a God sent political insurance policy to our Alaska needs where warranted.
“…..Be interesting to view how “Missie” Murkowski will be addressed with any tolerance within Trump supporting Senate Republicans…….”
Indeed. She’s soiled her party bedding in DC beyond cleansing over the past eight years. And if ranked choice voting is repealed in Alaska, I suspect the state party will have their long knives all sharpened up for her next re-election campaign in 2026. Switching parties can’t help her here in Alaska, and now it can’t help her in DC. I’m thinking (hoping) that she’s soon to be a historical lesson for folks in the future to learn from.
Dasvidaniya, Lisa. I can’t say that it has been a pleasure.
Shouldn’t take this long Are they looking for ways to cheat? Probably!
So if she gets the other two’s ranked votes, she wins correct?
The “if” part of that statement is the big “if.” – sd
If she gets all 12k, it would put her over Begich’s 11k lead. But the odds that the Howe voters (AIP) listed Peltola as their second choice are, I think, slim. I could be wrong, but I think AIP people are going to fall back to the Republican or not rank a second at all. It seems like a very narrow path for Peltola, though still technically possible.
No matter how many votes she gets she will always be Alaska’s “loser”.
Now he has the task of actually delivering on his promises
She would’ve missed this rank choice voting causes. We have to wait till November 20 to see who won so behind-the-scenes they can take our votes and use them the way they want them. Like I keep saying one volt one person the system should not be in control of your vote the vote is not in your hands when they can give it to somebody else. Isn’t there a law against this having more than one vote?