How could the ‘bellwether counties’ get it so wrong?


Several counties in America are considered the “bellwethers,” the ones that nearly always vote for the eventual winner of the presidential race. And by “nearly always,” we mean it’s remarkable how accurate they are throughout history.

This year, the bellwether counties voted heavily for Donald Trump, and for many of them, it appears they have broken their near-perfect records of predicting the winner, if the current trends hold and Biden is elected president.

Valencia County, New Mexico – perfect record with the electoral college winner since 1952 (longest current perfect streak). 2020: Trump 54%, Biden 44.%

Vigo County, Indiana (county seat: Terre Haute) – has had 2 misses (1908, 1952) from 1888 on, and a perfect record since 1956. From 1960 to 2004, Vigo County has been within 3 percent of the national presidential vote every election. 2020: Trump – 56.20%, Biden – 41.45%

Westmoreland County, Virginia (county seat: Montross) – two misses since 1928 (in 1948 and 1960), perfect since 1964. 2020: Not posted.

Ottawa County, Ohio (county seat: Port Clinton) – one miss since 1948 (in 1960), perfect since 1964. 2020: Trump – 60.8%, Biden – 37.7%.

Wood County, Ohio (county seat: Bowling Green) – one miss since 1964 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. 2020: Trump – 52.86%, Biden – 45.24%

Kent County, Delaware – two misses since 1928 (in 1948 and in 1992). 2020: Not posted.

Coös County, New Hampshire (county seat: Lancaster) – two misses since 1892 (in 1968 and 2004) 2020: Trump – 52.2, Biden – 46.2%.

Essex County, Vermont – one miss since 1964 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. 2020: Trump – 57.10%, Biden – 37.91%.

Juneau County, Wisconsin – one miss since 1952 (in 1960), perfect since 1964. 2020: Trump – 8,749, Biden – 4,747.

Sawyer County, Wisconsin – one miss since 1952 (in 1960), perfect since 1964. 2020: Trump – 5,883, Biden – 4,494.

Sargent County, North Dakota (county seat: Forman) – one miss since 1948 (in 1988). 2020: Trump – 59.96%, Biden – 35.05%

Blaine County, Montana (county seat: Chinook) – one miss since 1916 (in 1988). 2020: Biden – 51%, Trump – 47%

Clallam County, Washington – two misses (1968, 1976) since 1920. 2020: Biden – 51.87%, Trump – 45.78%.

Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) – one miss since 1972 (in 2016). 2020: Biden – 52.81%, Trump – 45.21%.

Ventura County, California – two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). 2020: Biden – 60.32%, Trump – 37.78%.

Merced County, California (county seat Merced) – one miss since 1972 (in 2016). 2020: Biden – 55.20%, Trump – 42.30%.

Hidalgo County, New Mexico (county seat: Lordsburg) – one miss since 1928 (in 1968), perfect since 1972. 2020: Trump – 56.7%, Biden – 41.7%.

Bexar County, Texas (county seat: San Antonio) – two misses since 1932 (in 1968 and 2016). 2020: Biden – 127,507, Trump – 89,991.

Val Verde County, Texas – two misses since 1924 (in 1968 and 2016). 2020: Trump – 7839, Biden – 6401

Hillsborough County, Florida (county seat: Tampa) – two misses since 1928 (in 1992 and 2016). 2020: Biden – 52.69%, Trump – 45.87%

Calhoun County, South Carolina – one miss since 1972 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. 2020: Trump – 4,302, Biden – 3903.

Colleton County, South Carolina – one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. 2020: Trump – 54.12%, Biden – 45.20%.

Washington County, Maine – one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. 2020: Trump – 59.1%, Biden – 38.5.

While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. The entire list is found at Wikipedia.


      • Thomas, common sense dictates where there is smoke there is fire. Democrats have a history of ballot-box stuffing and fraud. Dewey-Truman, Nixon-Kennedy, LBJ. They are so brainwashed to socialism they believe any means to an end is justified. We know this election was stolen. We also know its difficult to gather the kind of evidence required for litigation. This will be a stain on Biden’s presidency if he is inaugurated.

      • Only credible allegations are needed at this point, and they’re everywhere. After Discovery, you’ll have so much evidence you won’t know how to ignore all of it. I’d suggest taking lots of walks.

        Were you a stickler for evidence during the Russian Collusion debacle, that resulted in zero collusion related indictments, just ham sandwich process crimes that sent low hanging fruit to club med for six day sentences… They even threw out the charges against the Russian troll farmers…

  1. Nobody can predict the winner when cheaters are at Large. The stage was set as soon as Kobe happened and all the mail-in ballots started coming around . My system wasn’t set up to detect fraud. That and put some bad actors in the mix and well you see what happened.

  2. Bellwethers are now the ones that will produce the statistical anomalies to countervail a Republican landslide.

      • Thom-Maybe posting that response once was enough…don’t know that you needed the repeats for emphasis?

        Personally, I know many decent democrats that don’t want to win by cheating, and I know many decent republicans who don’t want to win by cheating either. The problem here, is not the voter in either party, but the corrupt establishment that runs each. In this case, in Democratic strongholds, where the counting is controlled by democrats, The statistical anomalies run far and deep. That, by itself, is a just reason to be curious. The behavior of these polling officials, and the eye witness testimony of fraud, are just reason to investigate. If there is nothing to hide, then letting observers in should have been no problem. In fact they were turned away, even after a court order. To some degree that right there is voter fraud.
        Now, Saying all democrats cheat may be inaccurate, and may be slandering good democrats to some degree, but making the case that the Democratic Party has a history of voter fraud, that certain cities themselves (Philly) also have the same history, and that there is much that went on that appears, on the surface, to be fraudulent, is not. That is called objective reason.

        • What about the traditionally red states Biden won with republican governors and republicans secretary’s of state and republican attorney generals? Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Are the republicans in those places not to be trusted as well?

  3. Statistical anomolies can be used as evidence in court. The article you just read is about statistical anomolies.

  4. Those ‘Bellwether’ counties are not wrong. What is happening is ‘in your face’ criminal enterprise, MSM cheerleading, funding and lying to keep the illegal inertia going. Democrats, big tech, liberals, socialists, anarchists, ‘dark’ money and the puppeteers doling it out are in full attack, trying to steal America, not just the election. This is for all the marbles.
    As much as I hate to say it, I believe the same is heading right for Alaska, as I write this. Gross is acting and talking like stealing the Alaska election is a done deal. His bravado and braggadocio is too smug and rehearsed to be coincidence. Notice he mentions those ‘uncounted’ mail in ballots like everyone is stupid except him, the old bear killer. Wouldn’t you know it? I’ve been told by those who know such things that my ‘spirit animal’ is the bear. I double don’t like Gross. Not just because he killed a female bear that was probably headed away from him. Then he lied and got his friend to be the patsy, just in case. I don’t like anything about him, political or otherwise.

  5. I don’t believe this is over yet. The US Constitution specifically states that only State Legislatures can write election legislation. In PA that was Election Act 77 which states that ALL mail in ballots must be in counting houses by 8pm on election day. The PA State Supreme Court illegally rewrote that law and extended the deadline. With the current makeup of the US Supreme Court Trump will almost surely win PA. if the case can be heard by the US Supreme Court ASAP.

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