Greg Sarber: Dahlstrom’s dilemma

By GREG SARBER

Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom has a tough choice to make. She must choose between being a possible congresswoman or likely governor.

As reported in Must Read Alaska, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy attended the Republican National Convention last week.  He did more than represent Alaska, he met with President Donald Trump and was seated three chairs away from Trump during the last night of the convention speeches. 

This is a bit surprising; sitting with the former president is a place of honor, and of all the Republicans at the convention, Dunleavy was the person to receive it. This raises Dunleavy’s visibility in the Republican world and tells you that Dunleavy is held in high favor by Trump. 

The close association might confirm the rumors that have been circulating for the past year, in which Dunleavy has been mentioned as a potential secretary of the Interior in a future Trump administration. Dunleavy’s proximity to Trump at the convention lends credence to that idea if Trump wins the presidential election in November.

For an ambitious politician, that would be a wise political step.  The governor’s current term will end in 2026, and he is term-limited meaning he cannot run for governor again. Dunleavy’s options after his current term is over are limited.  He could go back to teaching school, or if he wishes to remain in politics, he could run for the U.S. Senate in 2028 against Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who will be up for reelection in that year. Neither of these choices looks like a smart career choice. Dunleavy’s best chance to advance his political career is in national politics as part of the Trump administration.

How does that impact Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom? Dahlstrom is currently running for the U.S. House in a closely contested race for Alaska’s congressional seat against Nick Begich and the incumbent Nancy Peltola.

Polling for Alaska political offices is notoriously difficult, but according to the polling site “Data for Progress,” the most recent polling data shows the following for the congressional race:

Mary Peltola (D) – 44%

Nick Begich (R) – 35%

Nancy Dahlstrom (R) – 10%

Chris Bye (L) – 2% (Bye is not a candidate)

The website also forecasts a near tie in the election results after the rank choice voting automatic runoff, with Peltola and Begich coming down to a near 50/50 split in voting after Dahlstrom and Bye are eliminated.  This doesn’t bode well for Dahlstrom’s chances in the congressional general election.

So, if you are Dahlstrom, and see the current governor sitting next to Donald Trump at the convention and have the benefit of seeing the recent polling results for your own race, you have to be thinking about your political future and what is the best course of action.

Dahlstrom can continue to battle it out with Begich and Peltola up until the Aug. 20 primary. It is an election after all, and she does have Donald Trump’s endorsement, so she might do better than the polling suggests, but if the primary results reflect current polling, she will come in third. 

At that point, Dahlstrom can hope for a miracle and foolishly remain in the race as the RCV system allows her to do. The top four vote-getters in the primary will make it through to the general election.  Nancy Dahlstrom will certainly make the top four and will be on the general election ballot. 

Both Republicans tried that strategy in 2022, and ended up splitting the Republican vote which gifted Democrat Mary Peltola an election victory in a race she should never have won. 

Should Dahlstrom try that again this year, it would mean that she would be running against Peltola, Begich, and Bye in the general election, which would probably split the Republican vote giving the election to Peltola again. 

That’s exactly what Peltola and the Democrats are hoping for, but Dahlstrom has options that were unavailable to Sarah Palin and Nick Begich in the 2022 election. Dahlstrom can drop out if she loses the primary, graciously give her support to Nick Begich, and act magnanimously in defeat. This action would endear her to Alaska Republicans. 

Then Dahlstrom could hold her breath and hope that Trump wins in November and makes Dunleavy part of his cabinet. If Dunleavy resigns as governor to take a job in the Trump administration, as the lieutenant governor, Dahlstrom would then be appointed to fill his place for the last two years of Dunleavy’s current term.

By dropping out after the primary election and helping Nick Begich, Dahlstrom might cement her standing with Alaska Republicans, and by getting the governorship with Dunleavy’s departure, Dahlstrom could win two additional terms as governor, setting herself up for a potential 10 years as governor going forward. 

Even if Dunleavy is not part of the next Trump administration, Dunleavy can’t run for reelection in 2026 and Dahlstrom has raised her visibility with the current congressional race.  She would be in a good position to run for governor in two years. That sounds like a pretty wise choice for a long-time Alaska politician looking to extend her career.

It is ironic how Dahlstrom’s career is shaped by vacancy appointments.  Dahlstrom got her first seat in the Alaska House by being a replacement for Lisa Murkowski after Murkowski was promoted to fill her father’s Senate seat. Dahlstrom could become governor by filling Dunleavy’s vacancy if he joins the Trump administration. 

Stranger things have happened. You have to love Alaska politics, never a dull moment.

Greg Sarber is a board member of Alaska Gold Communications, the parent company to Must Read Alaska. He writes in his own capacity as a resident of Alaska. This column first ran in Seward’s Folly.