Department of Revenue Commissioner Lucinda Mahoney released the preliminary Fall 2021 revenue forecast today, which shows an additional $1.2 billion for Fiscal Year 2022, and another $1.0 billion in FY 2023 as compared to the previous forecast.
The total amount of expected UGF revenue is $5,975.5 billion for FY2022 and $6,128.6 billion for FY2023.
“Recent oil price increases have significantly improved our current fiscal situation and I’m pleased to report that the outlook for Alaska’s budget is good. We are optimistic about the current oil price and production trends,” Mahoney said.
The Department’s Economic Research Group develops the oil and gas revenue forecast by utilizing the Brent futures market to estimate oil prices. The Department’s Spring 2021 forecast estimated FY 2022 prices to be $61.00 per barrel with North Slope production of 459,700 barrels per day.
This updated forecast reflects an increased price of $81.31 per barrel with 488,400 per day North Slope production. Current market prices for ANS West Coast oil are $85.50 per barrel as of Oct. 28, 2021.
The Department of Natural Resources develops the production forecast which has near-term increases from the Spring 2021 Forecast to North Slope production for FY 2022 and FY 2023 due to the resumption of drilling and favorable oil prices.
The newly revised production forecast has decreased from the last forecast starting in FY 2024 due primarily to the increased uncertainty for large projects caused by federal litigation and financing issues.
The Department of Revenue is in the process of finalizing an interactive revenue and spending fiscal model based on this preliminary forecast, which will be made available to the public next week on Wednesday, Nov. 3.
The fiscal model will allow Alaskans and policymakers to select assumptions such as a range of oil prices, reductions or increases to spending, the amount of the PFD, new or increased revenues, investment returns, and other variables over a nine-year time horizon.
The result of the selections will be displayed to the user both graphically and in spreadsheet form. The fiscal model intends to provide Alaskans with an interactive tool that will enable a better understanding of our current fiscal situation.
The fiscal model will be updated when the final Fall 2021 forecast is released this December.
Will our depraved legislature pass this on to the people. in supplemental PFD checks? Hell no! They are corrupt.
It is an election year and $1.2 billion is not chopped liver. What’s left after govt. needs could go towards supplemental PFDs.
I’d like to be on the committee that determines those govt. needs. Heheh!
If you live in the bush, this is bad news. The cost of everything is all ready way up from last year and headed higher.
We’re better off at $50 a barrel as long as the legislature steals the PFD and just continues to grow government.
Your governor signs off in any budget. Which hasn’t actually grown in years. Facts matter.
More money?!?!?
You know what that means….. not enough for next years dividend.
Mwah mwah mwah
(Sad trombone)
They’ll spend every dime of it and we still won’t get our full dividend.
They will spend every dime and say “We don’t have enough money we need an income tax”.
Exactly!
And the state still owns my family about $30,000 in illegally confiscated PFD.
And they want income taxes.
The state owns your family? Have you had problems in the past fulfilling your parental duties?
You can bet that the legislature is already deciding how to waste it and implement some sort of tax. Without paying out a full dividend.
Adam Wool wants a state tax. But he doesn’t have many brain cells in working order. Too many years of drinking and sponsoring pot parties at his bar and road house up in Fairbanks. The guy made a living turning drunks out on the Parks Hiway after 1:00am
The legislature will Not waste it; let’s be fair. They’ll use it to kick back to the people and special interests that own them…
The legislators are no longer in session. Catch up.
Thanks for the civics lesson Pericles— So you are saying they won’t be able to spend this money next session? No wait- you are saying they aren’t crooks who use the money that comes in to payback their donors? Either way, you don’t come off too bright…
“Thanks for the civics lesson Pericles”.
LOL!
Now THAT is a classy and erudite comeback!
Time honored Alaska protocol: Better lucky than smart.
That is spot on. – sd
I have no doubt that the progressive legislature will fritter the extra money away on special interests, and the people of Alaska, and especially those hard workers who produced the oil, will see no benefit.
And the “leaders” will spend every dime in worthless endeavors.
Hey Lt governor Get to work and Audit the voter roles.
Dividends are to be paid not used to forward fund government on the backs of we the people or used to frivolously fund the big special interest who sit on both sides of the bargaining or round table.
There a plan under way to tax our vehicles at the DMV another 2%
Once again, the politicians are going to narrowly avert this crisis (through no fault of their own) that we all know will be back upon us before too long. Will they learn there lesson this time? Not likely. Will the voters learn their lesson this time? Not likely.
Just about the time oil starts going up, we are going to have our oil shut down. If the latest lease had not been canceled our pipeline would have been ay over 80% capacity. Imagine the possible revenue when a barrel goes over $100 per. Oh well, the Russians will enjoy it.
Well there is some of the money for a FULL statutory permanent fund dividend based on the preceding five year rolling average on earnings from the Permanent Fund. Wishful thinking. The 1+ billion dollar windfall will get spent down by the legislature before you know it.
The $1.5 billion per year oil tax credit will return the $1.2 billion to the oil corporations. Stop Alaska Big Oil from looting the taxpayer.
Medicaid will eat up all of this money. Medicaid is a welfare program for the health care industry that is designed to spend an unlimited amount of money. Every year. Forever.
Ah come on y’all. Why so cynical and glum? This is Good News. Yes, its pure luck, but that’s the way Alaska rolls. Cheer up because:
“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw”
I want to encourage everyone here to write their legislators. I don’t care if you don’t think it will do any good, or if you’ve written them before, or phoned them, etc. I don’t care if they’re dems, or repubs, or from outer space, just contact them and tell them how disgusted you are with their behavior.
This is what I wrote to Wilson today, you can use it if you want:
I am not going to beat around the bush here. I am not going to mince words. The people of Alaska, including me, want our money back! The money you all stole from us. And you all know you stole it. The original intent of the language and formula of the PFD was clear from the beginning. There is no amount of subterfuge or equivocating that can change that fact. You all knew what you were doing when you stole the people’s money that is rightfully ours. You and the rest of the Legislature need to do the right thing and give our money back to us. This robbery has hurt many people, including myself, who are in less than advantageous financial circumstances. Just know that no matter how you want to slice it or dice it to assuage your guilt, those who rob and obfuscate will always pay the price.
There is only one way to change that and that is to do the right thing. You need to side with the legislators and governor who are demanding that our money be given back to us. I hope to see that you will do the right thing.
Sincerely,
Am writing McCabe as well to encourage him to put pressure on in whatever way he can to correct this outrage.
Wait why are we still drilling for oil? I thought we were concerned about the thawing permafrost and those native villages washing into the oceans from global warming? Aren’t Alaskans concerned about that?
In addition to this “windfall” of $$$, they need to stick to the original statutory formula and stop the 5.25/5% POMV RAID on the FUND:
Now supporting more than 73% of the State of Alaska’s unrestricted spending, the Permanent Fund transferred $3.1 billion through the statutory Percent of Market Value (POMV) draw to the State in FY21.
The PFD WAS calculated by the following steps (still in AK State Statutes):
Add fund statutory net income from the current plus the previous four fiscal years.
Multiply by 21%
Divide by 2
Subtract prior year obligations, expenses and PFD program operations
Divide by the number of eligible applicants
Value of FUND as of 9/30/2021: $79,678,000,000
(Principal Total $65.2 Billion | ERA Total $14.5 Billion)
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