By ERNEST SIPES
Friday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Vladmir Putin surprisingly made Alaska a setting of great importance for the Russo-Ukrainian war. While Alaskans seemed generally pleased with all the attention, what is potentially overlooked by many were some clues in the meeting to a vital question: What exactly were the original Russian goals for the invasion of Ukraine?
Was the objective a countrywide assault and then an occupation of Ukraine by Russian forces? Or were the goals more modest, and the continued comparisons to Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939 just a method to stoke fear of the Russian Bear again on a rampage for world domination? Perhaps as is often the case in politics, the answer is more nuanced.
Following the Alaska meeting, unofficial sources quoted in Reuters report that Putin proposed to stop the fighting in exchange for Russia permanently taking the eastern Oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. If this proposal is eventually confirmed as true, it may well signal what the original Russian invasion plan was.
Having researched Russian Federation military operations for different media outlets and one “think tank” in three separate conflicts, I have learned to discount most of what I read of these engagements between post-Soviet republics and Russia. This is true in political goals, but also in many other areas of the conflicts, such as casualty figures and military equipment loses.
I first saw this phenomenon in the Ossetian War during the Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia in August 2008, when I had a short-term contract as a reporter for the English language newspaper Georgia Today. In that instance, the exaggerations were the Georgian figures for civilian loses during the Russian occupation of the city of Gori and accusations of Russian war crimes during the occupation.
Another example was during Russian operations in Syria in support of Assad while covering the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in 2012 on the Lebanon-Syrian border. Which brings us to what Russia named the labelled the Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
Put simply, Russian casualty figures may well be overblown to discredit Russian efforts. Mind you, I have not supported Russia in any of these operations. We don’t know for sure how many Russian or Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in this conflict. Because, put simply, both sides have proven themselves untrustworthy.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine puts Russian casualty figures at 1,067,100 as of early August, 2025. By contrast, BBC Russian Media Services and Mediazona records Russian casualties at somewhere slightly at 119,154 in mid-July. Official Russian government press releases stopped releasing casualty figures early in the war. The Russian Ministry of Defense stopped reporting losses in September, 2022 with slightly less than 6,000 killed to that date.
Ukrainian losses are equally hard to pin down. The Russian news source TASS reported that Ukraine had reached the 1 million casualty mark in late December, 2024.
Interestingly, there was some rare questioning of these figures during a recent Al Arabia panel discussion. In it, the issue was that Russia officially began the Ukrainian invasion with 1,300,000 soldiers in uniform. In the broadcast, Dr. Elie Al Hindy, a Security and Global Affairs expert, makes a valid point that the casualty reports as stated may be in fact be inflated, as to have lost that many soldiers would be massively disruptive to Russian military operations.
Yet, all that aside, the question of whether Russia intended to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine at the outset of the invasion remains that unanswered, at least in most western sources.
When trying to formulate an answer to this question, it must be understood that the relationship between Russia and Ukraine is a long one. And before traveling to Ukraine during this war I never realized it is much more complex question than I ever imagined.
To illustrate this, I had an about two-hour conversation with a Polish computer technician named Vasily who sat next to me on the plane out of Warsaw about this exact issue. And while he admitted he was surprised that the invasion had even occurred, he was not as dismissive of Russian methods and goals as you might think. More than once the concept of being Russian as not just a nationality, but instead an ethno/spiritual state of being, was expressed by Vasily to me.
So, with that being said, I would rather comment on some specifics and throw in a little speculation that I will state to some extent as fact, due to personal observation while in the Ukraine.
It needs to be noted that the only evidence that Russia was bent on a Ukraine invasion and subsequent occupation apparently came from a single source, “The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.” This British think-tank stated in late November 2022 that it had obtained a series of documents signed by Putin that outlined a plan to subdue Ukraine in a 10-day period, then execute the leaders of the country and force uncooperative Ukrainians into what appeared to be Soviet-style “reeducation camps.” The documents have never been shown to anyone outside the organization. Even today the RUSI website states “As the underlying source material for much of this report cannot yet be made public, this should be understood as testimony rather than as an academic study. Given the requirements for operational security, it is necessarily incomplete.”
Putin has never disclosed exactly what the goals of the invasion were, besides stating in 2022 it was “denazification and demilitarization” of Ukraine. Interestingly, a Moscow Times article on January 23, 2025, reported that “unnamed sources” recounted that Putin stated that Russia had achieved its key objectives in the Ukraine Special Military Operation.
So, what are we to believe were the actual Russian goals for the invasion of Ukraine?
It appears to me Moscow (and I am choosing to use Moscow to refer to the Russian Federation governing mechanism, as to me it’s a bit simplistic to refer to one man as the leader of a nation with a representational body as is the Duma) always had a fixed series of goals in this war.
And those goals were for the most part accomplished by the third week of the invasion. Now we could argue over whether the Duma truly represents the people of the nation, but for this article that would be pointless.
I perceive Moscow’s goals from the outset of the Special Military Operation as:
- A permanent route to the Black Sea.
- The unification of areas perceived as belonging to Russia and whose citizens (a majority at least) desire to join Russia.
- A notice to the world that the lands that once formed the Soviet Bloc are still under the guidance of Moscow at some level.
- To discourage surrounding nations from joining NATO/EU.
- To illustrate that all of Eastern Europe is still under the influence of Moscow.
If we approach the situation with these points in mind, Russian actions (and sometimes lack of action) begin making a lot more sense.
If you accept that a decision had been made by Russia to only accomplish a relatively small set of specific goals as outlined above, it is easy to see that this is why there has been no out-and-out destruction of the infrastructure of Ukraine when it is well within the ability of Moscow to do so.
While riding on trains and buses through the Lviv, Ternopil, Khemelnyyskyy, Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv and Dnipro Oblasts as I did, I realized it doesn’t take a military genius to realize that the topography of Ukraine makes it very vulnerable to aerial bombardment. Additionally, the country suffers from antiquated transport facilities and rolling stock, particularly in regard to railroads. And railroads are still vitally important in Ukraine, as road maintenance is frequently overlooked by municipalities. Additionally, a large percentage of the rolling stock is still of Soviet vintage. And not as antiques for tourists to ride in mind you, but for the actual transportation of goods and military equipment.
Below is a map of Ukraine to illustrate this point.
I ask reader to examine it before and after they read my points.
If the goal of Moscow were to simply invade and occupy Ukraine, then the following would be their logical course of action to pursue:
- Strike and destroy bridges over the Dnipro River at Kiev, Cherkasy, Dnipro and Zaporiza using mass Shahed drone swarms as was used in the Donetsk, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions on 13 August.
- Destroy the key Dnipro-Holovnyi railway yard using a combination of the RS-28 Sarmat solid fuel ballistic missiles and/or the Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. And, while it would be risky for aircrews, fighter bombers such as the Sukhoi 34 and the Tupolev 160 could participate as the less than 180-mile distance to Russian controlled airspace means loses could be manageable.
- Basically, rinse and repeat the above for the highways systems M06 and MO3 at Kiev, the M12 at Kirovgard, the MO4 at Dnipro and the M20 at Kharkiv.
- Send in any suitable aircraft to simply shoot up the rail and road systems after the above was completed.
Moscow could accomplish all of the above in approximately one week’s time. While aircraft losses would admittedly be high, the effect of cutting off the eastern Oblasts would arguably be worth the losses if simply conquering the country was goal of Russia. There is evidence that Moscow does indeed have the manpower and the aircraft to withstand what losses would occur if this strategy.
If such a series of steps were taken by Moscow, the following would happen:
- With the bridges knocked out, roads made impassable and railroads not functioning, no fuel, military equipment, food or goods would move west to east.
- Communications would be severely disrupted.
- Refugees would be swarming the bridge sites on the eastern side of the rivers, which would impede movement even more and produce almost an almost unimaginable humanitarian crisis. This would only be intensified if the attacks occurred in the winter months.
- Virtually no military equipment or reinforcements could be moved into the eastern areas in Donbas, Odessa etc. to reinforce to already taxed Ukrainian defenders.
- With the eastern part of the country cut-off, after a few weeks Ukrainian forces in the eastern Oblasts would be facing overwhelming Russian infantry pressure due to not being adequately supplied.
The Kremlin always had an end game for Ukraine; they just didn’t tell us.
And Russian ground forces have already accomplished these goals.
Since the outset, Moscow has been fighting the war it wants to fight.
The evidence is that the holding back of Russian aerial forces is part of an evolving plan, so that when the inevitable peace negotiations begin (as we may have just witnessed the beginning of in Anchorage on Friday), it will make it easier for both parties to come to terms.
However, if we begin hearing that train stations, railroad tracks, bus station, bridges, road junctions and electrical stations in western Ukraine are being systematically destroyed by Russia, then this may very well indicate there has been a change of plans by Moscow in terms of goals for this invasion.
My take is everything is being run on a timetable, with some obvious setbacks for Moscow. From the evidence I see, the Ukrainians and Russians are stubbornly dug in at pretty much the same static front lines in the eastern Oblasts that have existed since mid-2022. And if you can look at it dispassionately, brave Ukrainian soldiers are vainly throwing themselves upon Russian defensive lines even as I write this.
But do not believe what you are being told in the western media, that Russia is aiming for a WWII, Battle of the Bulge-style breakout to encircle Kiev and then force a surrender of the Ukrainian government.
As there is little evidence that this was ever Moscow’s plan for the Special Military Operation.
Ernest Sipes is former OCONUS contractor and reporter, most recently for the Berlin-based media organization Associated Reporters Abroad. He has eleven years of Middle East experience while working in Saudi Arabia and the Sultanate of Oman. In his position as a reporter, Mr. Sipes has visited and reported on Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Kurdistan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Oman, Republic of Georgia and Somalia. He has published one book in Canada and authored numerous articles in a variety of journals, including USA Today and the Washington Times. https://www.linkedin.com/pub/ernest-sipes/10/702/aa6
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What we won’t see. Sipes as a guest on Fox News. The official narrative is Russia bad. Bad Russia. I am not buying it.
The western media cannot be trusted, particularly the state socialist media in the United States. This writer’s most salient point was the supposed Russian casualties of over 1million from an army that initially fielded 1.3 million. That would not work and is probably another lie by the media. He also posits a objective concept by the Russians that is plausible particularly since major infrastructure is intact. If he is correct Putin can negotiate taking eastern oblasts that are Russian by ethnic orientation. What he did not say is that eastern Ukraine is Eastern Orthodox, albeit Ukraniian Orthodox, whereas the western Ukraine is more Polish and Roman Catholic.
This piece is more propaganda, disguised as balanced reporting. The Russia invasion of Ukraine is an unmitigated disaster for Russia. Gangster Putin had previously invaded Ukraine in 2014, in violation of the agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the USA that rid Ukraine of nuclear weapons, and in return provided security guarantees for Ukraine. Gangster Putin was rewarded by Obama and Biden when they failed to honor US obligations in that invasion. In the second invasion, to “denazify” Ukraine, the Russians thought it was going to be a cakewalk. Not mentioned by this author is that Zelensky is Jewish, and was elected in free and fair elections, by a landslide.
The communists have repeatedly invaded their neighbors. In 1968, Russia invaded Prague as the Czechs tried to throw off the communist dictatorship imposed by Russia. Putin is a communist. He doesn’t like freedom, instead he has used his position to steal over one trillion dollars from the Russian people. Funny the author doesn’t mention any of this corruption, the murder of Putin’s enemies, the lack of free elections, the restrictions on the practice of free religion.
A balanced piece is found on You Tube, “Why Russia’s Invasion into Ukraine Failed on Arrival” by Battle Board, and the Daily Mail. In this video you can see how Russia’s decapitation strike at the Hostomel airport intended to take out Ukraine’s leadership utterly failed.
Russia has one million dead and injured. NATO has expanded by two countries. None of gangster Putin’s goals have been achieved, unless his goal was to weaken Russia, and make NATO stronger, and more determined.
Propaganda? Your entire comment is neocon cold war propaganda.
Reagan – You do know that Russia has not been Communist for several decades now, don’t you? Also, when you state ” lack of free elections, restrictions on the practice of free religion, etc.” you are describing present day Ukraine under the current dictator Zelensky? And lastly, are you being paid to regurgitate outlandish and easily debunked neocon talking points or does it come naturally to you?
Fishing, you’re siding with a communist dictator. A KGB agent who murders people. A gangster who has authorized taking thousands of Ukrainian children. Since you side with this POS, you come anywhere near my kids, and you’ll find out what I’m capable of.
Ukraine elected Zelensky. He won by a large margin. Its true there have not been elections in Ukraine since Russia has invaded. But its really hard to hold elections when you are at war, and the evil Russians are not allowing free elections.
Why do you side with a total, scumbag, Fishing? What is wrong with you? Are you mentally ill?
STFU you ignorant warmonger! Stop watching mainstream media for your “facts” and you might add something meaningful to the conversation! In this day and age there is no excuse for swallowing any propaganda from anyone! And you better not verbally write a check your jelly butt can’t cash!
Fishing, well, you’ve answered my question.
I believe you’re exactly correct Ernest. Hard to second guess eastern block country’s. Never believe what they say either. I recently watched a pod cast from a guy that rode a motorcycle completely across Ukraine and what was interesting is at every check point on the road and there were many the first question the guards asked is if he were Christian or Muslim. There is definitely more going on than meets the eye. Eastern block country’s play by a different set of rules than we do for sure. Shoot first and ask questions later.
That photo looks like a scene in many blue cities like Portland or Seattle. These countries have been fighting for centuries not unlike the Middle East. Just seems to ebb and flow.
No matter how you look at it, Russia, Putin, will do what they planned at the beginning of the war in 2014.
complete take over of the Soviet Bloc countries prior to 1991. They are very busy setting up their nuclear sites and looking at the hard defenses of Poland, Scandinavian countries and those bordering Ukraine.
NATO should let in Ukraine and bock every inch of incursion and destruction by Putin-Russia. Putin is a history buff and in that, trying to set the bloc countries in along with his dreams of returning the borders of Russia to the parameters of the old empire. But for now, Trump did not follow through with his plan and sanction with a “cease fire” demand for talks. He let Putin have his way. So, who is the negotiator here?
Most importantly, the long strip of land that Russia states is theirs, from North to south and west is the productive arena of economy and the “bread basket” of the world including shipping. Crimea being the pleasure place of the Russian oligarchy. Putin’s retirement palace over looks the Black Sea and he won’t quit till he and the oligarchs have what he wants. USA and NATO is not in that picture and never will be. 2014 till today is ten years of fighting. Trump didn’t bother with Ukraine when he was in the first time because Putin sat in Crimea and had his snipers killing Ukrainian soldiers along the border of Ukraine without making a fuss about it at all. Over a million soldiers and mercenaries and other country soldiers have been killed on the Russian side. A million soldiers on the Ukrainian side have been killed. The Ukrainian boundaries still hold with fighting in and along that strip and will continue till Russia pulls out. Ukraine would be foolish to let go of its sovereign boundaries. NATO should let Ukraine in and help them hold and finish war on the eastern boundary. The USA and TRUMP needs to stop the negative narrative and support completely the end of the incursion and take over of Ukraine and put Putin out.
Russian apologists appear as determined as Putin. I almost hope Russia gets Donetsk and Luhansk; they deserve the heartaches of managing regions that hate them. But let’s be geographically frank: at a minimum, they need the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) so they have overland access to Crimea so their very vulnerable bridge isn’t their only access. Thus, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson will remain in play until the Kremlin gains them as well.
We aren’t all stupid out here.
In Revelations it refers to either Russia or China or both taking over the all of Europe. Sure seems possible. Putin is just playing games if he wanted to jus t march into Ukraine I would think he would launch a tactical nuke on kiev, or just kill Zelenskyy, Putin is a master of killing people, look at his history. I have not heard anyone apologizing for Putin ever so you can stuff that comment. At the same time Zelenskyy is a sleaze bag too. His wife is driving new rolls Royce in London as her country is systematically burned to the ground. It would have been best if the neighbors of Ukraine would have backed Ukraine instead they hide like pacifists do.
European Union President, Ursula Von der Leyen, let the cat out of the bag several months ago when she stated publicly at a Press Conference that the Ukrainian forces have suffered almost one million deaths to date. Retired Colonel Douglas McGregor, who was a military advisor to Trump during his first term, has confidently estimated that Russian forces have suffered perhaps, 75-100,000 armed forces deaths. He also asserts that the Russians enjoy a ten to one kill ratio on the battlefield, a figure that many other American analysts concur with. Sounds about right. On a lighter note, journalist Laura Loomer while testifying under oath, outed Senator Lindsey Graham as being gay!
Doug MacGregor has been wrong in his pro-Russian cheerleading since February of 2022, outright lies, and continues to do so daily. Any honest review of multiple sources proves it. Videos of his forecasts from 2022 proves it. You can believe him if you wish, but you cannot make others do so, especially with all the obvious facts in full view debating his claims.
Russia out guns them 100 to 1. None of us are saying this war is right we are just starting information we have learned, some right some wrong. I can tell you for sure Russia has hypersonic weaponry, they also have 1700 top of the line tactical fighters, with 45 year old heigh time fighter pilots. They also have over 9000 nuclear weapons. Russia is DANGEROUS. I believe they could crush Ukraine in 1 afternoon if they wanted to. For whatever reason Putin is playing the smoke and mirrors game. Keep your eyes looking over your shoulder, Not one commenter here on this blog that I have seen is in love with Putin. So take a chill pill. I do not believe the numbers of dead either. Very questionable.
Yeah, I’ll take Reggie’s word over a combat Colonel’s word who was advisor to the President during his first term.
Appreciate seeing at least this article indicating the beginnings of curiosity in western media to search for facts, instead of parroting fanciful narratives.
Virtually no western reporters visit the Russian side of the front lines, interview servicemen, local residents or report on the rebuilding of infrastructure as in Mariupol. Those that do have fascinating insights.
Russia has absolutely no aspirations to invade Europe, or western Ukraine. There is nothing of value, just failing societies and economies ruled by a corrupt kleptocrat elite, as France was before their revolution.
Their terms from Istanbul 2 are clear, consistent, fair and have not changed.
Their military tactics are successful in eliminating the Ukraine Army as a force. Arrow offensives are near impossible and very costly in casualties. Stretching the dwindling manpower on a 900 mile front and inflicting a ratio of 12 to 1 casualties on the Ukrainians, along with tens of thousands of desertions will cause total collapse soon.
This is why Trump ended the gibberish of 50 day timeline or more useless “bone crushing” sanctions and called for a summit.
Once the cohesiveness of the defense collapses the Russians can advance rapidly to the Dnepr River, the Kiev regime falls and game over.
The sooner the better for all reasonable people.
“……Virtually no western reporters visit the Russian side of the front lines……..”
Few are willing to commit suicide. Why don’t you go, Brian?
There are a few reporters that do an excellent job. They actually have the courage to listen to locals and witness what occurs to the east of the line of contact.
The rebuilding of Mariupol after we created the Azov skinheads to destroy the place is remarkable.
When we are done in Ukraine we will leave the wreckage and millions of invalids and start on destroying Taiwan. No money for our MIC to build lethal weapons or
cash for our swindling politicians. Find an excuse to start another war.
This is far too long. It is also filled with factual mistakes and oversights. If it has a point then I have missed its discovery, and perhaps some editing for length would reveal it. Anyone can claim to be a reporter for one or more of the thousands upon thousands of news outlets now in existence, and the bar has never been lower.
Well Done DK. Your comment is better then the Column above it. Russia could not take Kiev in the first 10 days, —Because they Could Not. BIG FACT COMING HERE— Russia’s GDP is $4 trillion dollars. Canada’s is about $4.5, Mexico’s is about $3.8, the Russian economy is between Canada’s and Mexico’s., Russia cannot afford this War. Ukraine is a BLACK HOLE that will destroy the Russian Economy. That is why Putin came here, to STOP THE SECONDARY SANCTIONS. He is very close to LOSING. If he loses, he will be killed. He is fighting for his life, not for some mythical ideology.
Jonathan, it is the US and Europe that cannot afford to maintain the war we started or manufacture weapons and munitions at the burn rate used in a major conflict of industrial scale attrition.
Since 1991 we took over the quest of global hegemony from the British Empire. Sending overseas expeditionary forces to subdue small nations, which has never worked out for the benefit of average Americans at home.
The $500 billion plus we have spent is all added national debt, with Uncle Sam’s bond market of selling debt failing.
Sanctions, and under Trump, the misuse of tariffs as sanctions, weaponized to destroy economies do not work for our benefit.
Russia has 50% of world reserves of most minerals, metals, oil and gas. They have a large manufacturing base and highly educated human capital. They are actually a self sufficient country with safe, overland trade routes to China. At such time as we go after China destroying Taiwan as we are doing to Ukraine, their trade is safe from our navy.
The threat of secondary sanctions pushed India into closer ties with China and they cancelled purchasing F-35s. We are strengthening BRICS and the resolve of other countries to avoid dealing with us.
It wasn’t the “Putin” going to us, it’s the advisors around Trump panicking that his presidency will be destroyed if he continues our losing war, and to invite Putin and listen for once.
Thank you, Brian. You are 100% correct!
What about the North Koreans fighting? And the Chinese Special Forces?
I thinks the three countries are warming up to something of a team work/war experience for a future war.
Exactly dale the full scale invasion of Europe. It’s biblical. I personally think Russia is just playing games with Ukraine in preparation for something huge. European (men) in their skinny jeans won’t have a prayer. All of Europe should have shown up the first day Putins troops showed up and told them to go home. Instead they cowered and began begging Biden for money. And isn’t it curious the connection old Joe had with Ukraine, a country most Americans didn’t even know existed.
Please tell me that most people that read this drivel don’t believe a single word.
Not only has Putin said on record “Ukrainians and Russians are one people, in this sense, all of Ukraine is ours”. These are not the words of a madman on a small mission. He wants all of Ukraine under Russian rule.
Secondly, and to Mr. Sipes misinformed point, Russia has inflicted significant damage on Ukrainian infrastructure, not just in the war zone. Russia has destroyed 2/3 of Ukraine’s pre-war energy production and an estimated $170B in total damages, mostly to the energy, transportation, and housing infrastructure.
This article is Russian propaganda.
The geniuses in the Pentagon instructed their little puppet in Kiev to end natural gas flows from the Kursk region to Europe on 12/31/2024. One of the few income streams left of their “economy”. US taxpayers pay the entire war and dictatorial government.
The little American puppet in Kiev emptied the gas line, the Russians hit the compression station with a precision kinzhal strike to insure gas could not again be released and their special forces pulled off the most effective operation in modern history. By using the empty pipeline to infiltrate behind the front and emerge in the rear staging areas.
Ending the 2nd fascist Kursk operation with the destruction of 70,000+ Ukrainian, Polish and American mercenaries in place.
Play stupid games and win Darwin awards, so it goes. The last surviving Poles and American “contractors” on Kursk Region lands were eliminated by Chechen and erhnic Native Yakut units. Legally foreigners engaged in armed conflict without a declaration of war are terrorists under international law. The war on ending global terrorism is real now.
Sipes, I have friends who are from the Donbas – it is rubble, all of it. The Russians didn’t leave much untouched – not even the railroads, by which my friend just barely got his family out to Poland. Without any doubt, tall tales are being spread by all sides and sources. Trust no one. No one will “win” this war. POTUS Trump seeks a way for Putin to save face while ending the war – I wish his efforts great success. While the issue is complicated and nuanced, this much is clear: Russia invaded their neighboring sovereign nation Ukraine. And as my friend put it, “No one likes Russians anymore.”
Excellent essay.
Comments? Some thoughtful, many doubtful.