Election analyst: Begich would win head to head with either Peltola or Palin, if he could get to a head-to-head

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An election data analyst who writes a Substack blog on election science describes Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, implemented for the first time this year, as an example of what not to do, because the person who got the most votes — Nick Begich — did not win election to Congress on Aug. 16. Instead, Mary Pelota won, the person who got the second-most combined votes.

The writer, who uses the pseudonym Draper, wrote that this is called the “Condorcet failure,” one of the big problems with ranked choice voting, also called instant run-off voting. For Alaska, it’s an election system failure that advanced a Democrat into Congress, even though voters clearly preferred a Republican, 60 to 40.

Begich was the person who got the most votes by a significant margin, with all first, second, and third votes combined, but that wasn’t enough in the Alaska system of voting.

He would also have defeated Sarah Palin in a head-to-head, and he would have won against Mary Peltola in a head-to-head, the data shows. Instead Peltola was the winner.

“This paradox is known in fancy-speak as ‘Condorcet Failure,’ (named after an 18th-century French mathematician),” Draper wrote. “Electing the Condorcet (or consensus) winner is a hallmark of a ‘good’ election method. IRV (instant run-off voting) failed this test in Alaska.”

To be specific, Begich defeated Palin with 101,229 vs. 63,619 preferential votes; he also defeated Peltola with 87,883 vs. 79,458 votes, Draper wrote.

But that’s only part of the math. Draper points out a more difficult concept to understand: If Mary Peltola would have gotten 5,163 more votes, she would have actually lost.

“This ‘More is Less’ IRV pathology has been known for decades and it is beyond the pale that it alone hasn’t stopped the push for more IRV adoption. Similar defect(s) showed up in Moab, UT (documented here),” Draper wrote.

In addition, Palin was the spoiler in the race, he said. Although ranked choice voting proponents say there is no “spoiler effect,” Draper said that if Palin had dropped out, Begich would have won, and that is the definition of a spoiler.

Finally, Peltola failed to win the true majority.

Peltola won with 91,266 votes out of 189,112 votes cast, which means Peltola was actually 3,026 votes short of a true majority.

Read the entire analysis by Draper at this link.

98 COMMENTS

  1. Never happen. Palinheads would rather burn the state down. Their queen can’t admit she can’t win.

    Once again, assist to Porcaro for pushing RVC so hard. Mary couldn’t have won without it.

    • Porcaro will promote ANYTHING on his radio station when the money is good. He gives no consideration to the merits or detractors on any given topic. Thanks to him Alaska has Ranked Choice Voting and we are suffering the negative consequences. There can be no question about this.

    • You have another option. Just look at the observable evidence… did both parties approve the $31t debt? Did both parties approve the AUMF sending us to war for 20+ years? The Patriot Act? The PREP Act? How hard did both parties fight to prohibit insider trading?
      RCV allowed a commoner to at least challenge the status quo. You better believe both parties would love to eliminate that option. If you think Mitch, Kevin, Chuck, and Nancy have your best interest in mind and you like the status quo, you have three candidates to choose from. If not, well, you have Chris Bye.

  2. It took a mathematician to provide an intellectual analysis of what most Alaskans already knew:

    1. Sarah Palin was a spoiler.
    2. Mary Peltola won with a clear minority.
    3. RCV is a piece of crap system that is going to get repealed.

    • Your first two points are self explanatory and true by definition, Paul. But your point #3 needs some buttressing. Why is RCV a ” piece of crap?”
      .
      Because:
      1. It results in voter confusion, whereby voters don’t understand why they need to rank candidates who they don’t like.
      2. It’s unconstitutional, as it pushes voters to prefer candidates who would otherwise not be options to the voter. Voters should have clear and concise options without being forced to play a game that is designed to confuse and pick by entry of choice and ranking that is outside of the voter’s intentions.
      3. The process of RCV requires multiple stages of tabulation which results in very delayed results and outcomes.
      4. An assignment of second choice votes to another candidate is outside the scope of true intent of the voter.
      5. The elimination of one candidate (#3) and the assignment of votes of another (#2) to the first choice is exclusionary to the eliminated candidate, who’s loss should be registered no differently than to candidate #2’s loss. #2 and #3 are both losses. Only candidate #1, with the majority of votes, should be tallied in the winner’s column. Candidates #2 and #3 do not reflect the true intent of the voter, and should be regarded only as unpreferred alternatives.
      .
      But essentially, Paul is correct. RCV is a piece of crap used by Democrats to give their candidates an advantage, whom would otherwise never survive a legal, closed Republican Primary.

  3. so keep calling palin people names and see where that goes. i still wonder what do you call begich supporters who put peltola as their second choive. i dont think you call them republicans maybe rhinos or worse. mike svenson

    • As far as I hear and read most of us who prefer nick to Sarah did “rank the red”. I put her as 2 and didn’t rank peltola at all. If all the PAKO heads did the same then either she or nick should’ve one. So….either Sarah’s people can’t follow directions or they are really the “rino” you speak of.

      • “…….most of us who prefer nick to Sarah did “rank the red”……..If all the PAKO heads did the same then either she or nick should’ve one. So….either Sarah’s people can’t follow directions or they are really the “rino” you speak of.”
        You’re beyond slow. You’re in complete denial. ‘Most’ of you isn’t all. It is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that (1) Palin received 5000+ more votes than Begich, thus eliminating Begich, and (2) 15,467 Begich voters chose Peltola second. Those 15,467 votes is why Peltola won, since her margin over Palin was 5,240 in the final tally. Had just half of those voters simply not chosen Peltola over Palin (like 11,243 other Begich voters) and left their second choice blank, Palin would have won.
        You can believe whatever you wish, but you cannot change reality.

      • Backbiters – according to MRAK, 65% of Peltola voters ranked Begich second. I’m not sure what that tells us in this goofy RCV world except that maybe Dems like Begich for some reason!

    • I ranked Nick first and Sarah second. It is baffling to me that anyone ranked Peltola after Nick or Sarah. She will just be another vote helping the Marxist agenda in DC. She may be very nice, even intelligent, but I am pretty confident thar she will climb into that boat with the rest of the leftists.

    • This is what I meant when I said the Democrat Party, the Sarah Palin Party, and the Nick Begich Party. The party with the most votes wins.

  4. Can we just stop this nonsense? One vote, per registered voter, one day only – results announced that night. It used to work pretty well that way. How do we, the people of Alaska, repeal this fraudulent, cheating process of Ranked Choice Voting? I want a serious answer. How do we get rid of this?

    • Emily, does that mean the vote counting would stop at midnight and whatever the results were at that time would determine the winner? You think disenfranchising voters because it takes too long to count ballots is acceptable?

      • It doesn’t take too long to count votes. They aren’t being loaded up on a dog sled and ran into ANC. That is a farse. You have internet don’t you. You have telephones I think. Votes could come in faster from the Mars colony that they do in AK. You just need time to manipulate the count. That takes days.

    • Uh, no one disagrees with that, but until we can get rid of RCV, unless you follow the RCV rules, you are only cutting the throat of conservative efforts by not ranking. Only voting for one person under ranked choice voting is ultimately what handed the position to Peltola. If you did so then thank you self for whom is in office now. Sorry, we are stuck with it until we can get rid of it.

    • Peltola would win under “First Past the Post” too. Going backwards isn’t the solution.

      Hare RCV (Maine) is a scam “reform” that just perpetuates the status quo, because it doesn’t count all the votes and still suffers from the spoiler effect.

      Condorcet RCV would actually count all the votes, and Begich would have won, because Begich was preferred by the majority over both of the other candidates. Alaska needs to switch to a voting system that doesn’t suffer from the spoiler effect. Then the candidate the voters actually want wins, and nobody needs to drop out of the race or vote tactically for the lesser of two evils.

  5. Instead of hating on Palin voters, focus on getting Begich voters to stop ranking Peltola.

    This Palin voter put Begich #2. I plan to do the same in November, because I want one of them to win. If Begich voters cared about Alaska, they’d keep Peltola off their ballot.

      • The Republican candidate who should drop out is Sarah Palin. She burnt her bridges 13 years ago and has not helped anyone but herself since. She stabbed Ted Stebens in the back. She did the same to Sean Parnell and got Walker elected. This election, she has indicated more support for Peltola than she has Begich. More than half the state’s voters have a negative opinion of her and will never vote for her. So, if you want a Republican, it needs to be Begich.

        • “The Republican candidate who should drop out is Sarah Palin……..”
          That’s your opinion, and you are welcome to it, but (again) Palin beat Begich twice: first in the primary, then in the special election general election. Thus you are in the minority. If you insist on spoiling a Palin win, you can vote for Peltola second like over 15,000 other voters did, but if we end up with a Demonrat Congressman, it won’t be anybody’s fault except yours and those like you. I can easily live with that. Can you?

          • You shouldn’t consider those previous vote-totals as wins by Palin because the severe vote-splitting obscures the true support for the candidates. Palin has already been shown to lose to Peltola one-to-one, while Begich beat Peltola in a head-to-head contest according to all of the ballots. Begich also beat Palin in a head-to-head comparison by about 21%. It makes more sense to have those Palin voters who really want a Republican to be elected to rank Begich first and Palin second. Such voters should NOT send Palin to a run-off against Peltola, or she is likely to lose again.

        • Thats pretty weird, because Democrats favored Begich to Palin by a massive ratio of 11 to 1. I prefer conservative outcomes – so I’m sticking with the ‘R’ candidate that isn’t being endorsed overwhelmingly by the votes of left wing freaks.
          Begich is the ‘Murkowski’ candidate in this race.

          • Thanks Apu, you took the words out of my mouth. Begich is the establishment Republican, which is why he is so heavily endorsed. Palin is the only candidate that will help undo the damage in DC. Begich will do whatever his handlers tell him to do. If he really cares about the country, he will drop out and back Palin so the communist, Peltola, will not be able to help Pelosi carry out her wish list against the American people.

    • Begich did call for ranking red. Not hard, but he did. Palin went out of her way to say not to, and she voted Mary #2.

      Using this logic, tell Palin to stop putting Mary #2.

    • This Begich voter ranked Palin second. Did any Palin voters rank Peltola second? Do we know? At this point we need to just understand the process of the idiotic system that has been thrust upon us and play the awful game until we can get rid of it. And yes, put the pridefulness aside and RANK THE RED. That is only way we have a chance.

      • Re: “Did any Palin voters rank Peltola second?”
        6.2% of Palin-first voters ranked Pelotola second.

        11290 Begich > Palin or Peltola
        27053 Begich > Palin > Peltola
        15467 Begich > Peltola > Palin
        53810 Total Begich-first ballots

        21080 Palin > Begich or Peltola
        34208 Palin > Begich > Peltola
        3685 Palin > Peltola > Begich
        58973 Total Palin-first ballots

        23579 Peltola > Begich or Palin
        47504 Peltola > Begich > Palin
        4716 Peltola > Palin > Begich
        75799 Total Peltola-first ballots

        1888582 Total votes above (total does not include ballots with write-in candidates with no rankings; perhaps as many as 520?)

        If you want to increase chance that a Republican wins, it appears that the best strategy is to Rank Begich first. Do not rank Palin first.

  6. It’s unrealistic to ask either candidate to step down. It’s really quite simple: Rank the Red.
    According to Suzanne, Palin voters were worse at not ranking Begich 2nd than Begich voters were at not ranking Palin 2nd.
    There is absolutely no rational reason to not rank the other 2nd. This is one of the confusing aspects to voters of RCV. It appears this is part of their design to elect minority candidates.
    In my opinion, RCV is unconstitutional as it disembowels the main purpose of political parties to select their own candidate.

      • “Why can’t parties pre-select their candidates ahead of the state primary?”
        I don’t think they can prevent a candidate from running if that candidate decides to call themselves a member of their party. Moreover, the Republican Party platform is very clearly pro-life, yet most RINOs are clearly pro-abortion. Why can’t (won’t?) the Republican Party expel member who violate the party platform?

    • “……..According to Suzanne, Palin voters were worse at not ranking Begich 2nd than Begich voters were at not ranking Palin 2nd……..”
      That might be true, but I did not find that statistic published by the Division of Elections. Do you know why? Because it is an effectively meaningless statistic. Palin beat Begich (twice, actually), so the second choices of those who voted for her first didn’t matter a whit. Moreover, the numbers that were published clearly show that over 11,000 Begich voters made no second choice, but over 15,000 Begich voters chose Peltola second. Peltola beat Palin by a tad over 5,000 votes.
      The loss of the seat to the Demonrat can clearly be attributed to those 15,000 voters. Had all of them simply chose nobody second, Palin would have won by over 10,000 votes. It was their right to vote as they choose, but blaming the loss on Palin voters is obviously false. Those people did not want Palin, and they effectively charted our collective future. It is widely believed that Republicans will still control the House by a wide margin in the 118th Congress, but Alaskans will not enjoy the benefits of that majority.

      • You need to look at the second place votes reported by Suzanne in a column reporting on Division of Elections results. Begich and Palin voters both inexplicably voted for Peltola as their second choice in significant numbers – that was the real killer. In spite? Spite is a poison that YOU take hoping to kill the other person.
        Conservatives MUST Rank the Red or there is nobody to blame but themselves.

        • Saying that Begich and Palin voters ‘both voted for Peltola as 2nd choice’, is true – but an oversimplification.

          Palin voters were far more likely to ‘rank the red’.
          Begich voters, on the other hand, were far more likely to defect to the Democrats.
          Democrats, also, favored Begich over Palin by massive 11 to 1 ratio.

          Anyone still claiming that AK voters perceive Begich as ‘more conservative’ is just a likely R-moderate NBIII fanboy trying to muddy the waters ahead of round 2. Democrats do not flock to support conservatives just to stop ‘dangerous moderates’ from winning. Democrats will *always* favor the R-moderate that will sell out right wing principles for a good soundbite on CNN.

        • “……Conservatives MUST Rank the Red or there is nobody to blame but themselves.”
          Agreed, and that is exactly what is going to be occurring for the next few years: ‘conservatives’ blaming each other for the votes of our new Demonrat Congresswoman. You may as well get accustomed to it.

    • She couldn’t drop out if she wanted to. That date has come and gone.

      Vote Palin – Begich, or Begich – Palin, but do not leave one of them off, and do not vote for Petola.

      It is really that simple people!!!

      • It appears likely that the only way for R’s to defeat Peltola is for all Palin and Begich supporters to rank Begich first. Too many Palin-Begich ballots may send Palin to the run-off against Peltola, and then Palin loses to Peltola.

    • Why not tell us how you really feel? You will as I said above, drive the nation off a cliff just because you harbor malice against who is basically a good person that made a few mistakes. This is why Alaska is doomed if people can’t filter the past out of the equation to save the future. Get over it!

      • Made a few mistakes? You can’t be talking about Palin. She made fatal errors with almost every decision. There is no malice against her, just a focused recognition that she is a catastrophe waiting to happen. Seriously, name something good that she did. Tell me about her conservative credentials. Backing Walker? Backing Petola? The ACES tax and standing with every democrat and against every republican in the state? She is an unguided bomb. She literally has no conservative compass.
        Palin talks the talk, but she does not walk the walk.

      • Michael, don’t bother.
        These are basically moderate shills or Democrats posing as Rs to concern troll this board.
        These are the same people that joined forces to keep Joe Miller out of our Senate seat.

        They understand that making the honest argument – marketing NBIII as a ‘moderate Republican that can win’ isn’t going to sway enough conservative Alaskans to vote for him, especially while we are trying to get rid of turncoat Lisa Murkowski.

        So instead, these moderates flack this absolutely retarded fiction that NBIII is somehow politically to the right of Palin – when Sarah is the actual Trump endorsed MAGA candidate in this race.

        That line was always just tactical election bullcrap to stick us with yet another entrenched RINO – just like Murki. Unfortunately for them – with the benefit of actual voting data, its now incredibly transparent election bullcrap. They have a weak hand, and they know it. All they can do is throw a tantrum and hand the seat over to Peltola. Pathetic, but thats moderates for you.

        • RINO Republican leadership in Alaska would rather have Peltola in Congress than MAGA candidate Palin because they know that Palin will support the MAGA agenda in Washington, DC. Of course, their first choice would be one of their own – Begich. But if they can’t squeeze him in, Peltola will do. Drain the Swamp terrifies the political elites, both RINOS & Dems, who have a vested interest in continuing the rampant corruption going on at both the federal & state levels.

  7. Peltola will win. There will be two Republicans and one Democrat. Repubs will split the vote and Peltola will come out ahead again. If not, the Dominion machines will take care of it. No stopping this.

  8. Nick Begich did not get the most votes–your lead line is wrong–otherwise he would be in D.C. right now as a member of the U.S. House. Nick Begich (and Sara Palin) failed to get enough votes to win the seat. I’m disappointed the MRAK blog is now quoting a random Substack blog as somehow being substantiated evidence that Mary Petola did not win. Had the election rules been written by the GOP instead of Alaskans, the outcome might have been different.

    • Begich was indeed the most preferred candidate to others:
      ‘https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/rcv-fools-palin-voters-into-electing-a-progressive-democrat/

  9. “This Palin voter put Begich #2. I plan to do the same in November, because I want one of them to win. If Begich voters cared about Alaska, they’d keep Peltola off their ballot.”

    …and this Begich voter put Palin #2. The sound and fury about RCV and “how do we get rid of it” is a waste of time and energy until after November. For November, vote either Begich-Palin or Palin-Begich; don’t vote Peltola. Not ranking either Begich or Palin after the other gives Pelosi another vote in the House.

    • Probably much safer to rank Begich>Palin. Too many Palin>Begich ballots may be a losing strategy as Palin has already been confirmed to lose to Peltola.

  10. I’ve said it before. The most toxic name in Alaska politics vs the most toxic person in Alaska politics.

    Mary winning was inevitable.

    • “……The most toxic name in Alaska politics vs the most toxic person in Alaska politics……..”
      ……..running against the most toxic political party in American history. With ranked choice balloting, it should be a walk in the park, no? Whoever wins, the Alaska public is responsible for it.

  11. And there it is – with MRAK, predictably burying the lede.

    Leftist/Democrats and align themselves heavily with Begich. By a ratio of a WHOPPING 11 to 1.
    Over 42,000 Peltola supporters ranked Begich 2nd – while Palin received 3700 2nd D votes.

    Since its clear that left-wingers will always prefer the weak RINO to the Trump endorsed MAGA candidate – can we finally dispense with laughable notion that Begich is the ‘real conservative’ in this race? He’s not.

    Forty-five thousand Democrats have spoken – He’s just another Lisa Murkowski to them.

  12. If Begich voters would just rank red meaning Palin second. She will win. The problem is Begich voters either didn’t rank Palin second or the ranked Petola. You can look up the results. Palin beat Begich twice and will probably do so again, if voters would just rank the red, we will get a republican. Rank the red. I don’t care which one wins as long as it’s not a Democrat.

    • Begich was preferred over Palin by 61% of voters.

      If Alaska used a Condorcet RCV system that actually counts all the voters, Begich would win without any spoiler effect. Hare RCV counts some peoples votes and ignores others, so it still suffers from the spoiler effect, just like FPTP. It violates one person one vote.

  13. There ls an old song—I’m my own Grandpa. The singer goes through a long litteny of how this is done by naming various relationships with different relatives produces the title of the song. Kind of like the article above..

  14. These types of Monday morning quarterbacking are useless because many people would vote for Palin, but will not vote for Begich, if Palin is not on the ticket. Begich must not have enough $ to compete as Peltola is ruling the airwaves. When Margaret Hoover says the Republicans are losing in Alaska to a moderate, conservatives should listen

    • Frank:
      I don’t know where you get your information, or how you back your suppositions, but in a closed Republican primary, Nick Begich would defeat Sarah Palin. And in the general election that follows, Begich would easily (landslide) beat Peltola. Follow the mathematics.

      • You don’t know how to read the Special Election voting data if you drew that conclusion.

        The problem for Begich is precisely the opposite.
        Begich would lose a closed Republican Primary to Palin – because the crossover Democrats and Independents that boosted his numbers under RCV would not be able to vote for him.

        We know this because Democrats favored Begich by large margins. And Begich voters defected to Peltola in much larger numbers than the Palin crowd. These ‘wishy washy, swing both way’ types of voters would be shut out of a traditional closed R Primary – leaving Palin to win easily.

        Of course, after winning the primary, Palin (being further right) would clearly have a more difficult time winning the general election – especially if a 3rd party moderate spoiler joined the general election. But trying to sell the notion that moderate Begich could stop conservative Palin in a closed R primary is complete, laughable nonsense.

  15. The election to fill Don Young’s seat was not part of the original plan. I’m sure the RCV authors expect next year’s legislature to overturn Ballot Measure 2, but they only needed it for the one election in November to take care of their deep-state candidate, Murkowski. Pelotola’s win was simply an unexpected bonus.

    I did rank the red in the house election, but I will never vote for Murkowski – first, second, third or fourth.

    • “……Peltoola’s win was simply an unexpected bonus……..”
      ………And incredible education. Now they know just what an asset RCV is for them. Expect any attempt to vote it away to be fought viciously.

  16. Mary Peltola will be a definite NO vote against any Congressional investigations against the Biden administration’s corruption/treason & it’s political weaponization of the FBI & other intelligence agencies as will Murkowski. Palin is definitely MAGA and as such is a safe vote. Begich is an unknown, who from his campaign rhetoric, appears to be cut from the same political cloth as Murkowski This election could very well be our last chance to save the USA. Don’t be fooled by personality. Vote for who will be a definite vote to drain the Washington, DC swamp!

  17. I would be highly curious how many votes were thrown out because Alaskan’s didn’t understand ranked choice voting or they used a flair marker to fill-in their ballots which bleed through, which happened to me but I asked for another ballot and pressed lightly. Still, why the hell are we using flair pens for ballots that bleed through and will error out in the vote altering Dominion Machines? Still waiting for an answer on that Dunleavy. Stop ignoring voter fraud in your State!

  18. Palin could absolutely back away in spite of the deadline having passed, as Buzz Kelley did in the Senate race. Out of the race, name still on ballot. I have worked diligently campaigning for Nick Begich since late March of this year. Nick is absolutely in my opinion the best qualified person for this seat. Numerous one on one conversations reveal his history, his work ethic and his track record in the business world. Nick Begich is a success story with deeply ingrained conservative values. To “Rank the Red” was the pre-election mantra in the pro Nick Begich circles that I frequent. That is exactly what we did, Begich 1 Palin 2. I know of no one that ranked Peltola 2 because they so despise Palin. This a stupid shoot yourself in the foot move that apparently some did. RCV absolutely has to go!

  19. I was on with NB3 from last year, and have supported him since. Palin supporters complain about NB3 supporters not ranking her. I wonder why?
    1. Plain was quite vocal to rank only her. Fine, that’s exactly what some of the NB3 voters did for him.
    2. It didn’t matter how positive an NB3 post was. There immediate attacks by the Palin supporters, not only against NB3, but us as his supporters as well. It was trashy and relentless. Many NB3 voters took note of that, and punished Plain for it.
    3. There’s no way I could support her campaign, because of these things:
    A. ACES and putting me and hundreds of other oilfield workers on the streets. Then praising Hollis French for him “improving ACES”, giving a 400% tax increase which fed the state bloat we suffer today.
    B. Troopergate.
    C. Running over Parnell with her support of a failing Walker campaign, giving us Walker for 4-years, and the theft of our PFD.

    With all if that, I still ranked the red, and blew off the blue in August.
    In November, I plan on doing that as well. I hope all Republicans understand the tactics of this crappy RCV scheme, and it was designed to do exactly what just ocurred.

  20. This is why we have ranked choice voting. So that the person who thinks that the Supreme Court takes away your rights by restoring the rights to the people can win instead of the better candidate.

  21. The vote is for a two year office. Whoever wins has to run again in two years. If we don’t like them we can send them packing. Perhaps RCV will be a thing of the past by ten.

  22. Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

    Vote for Palin as #1 and you elect Mary Peltola. This fact was proven in the Primary election.

    Vote for Begich in November as #1 and you elect a conservative that represents the majority of Alaskans. Pretty simple “beer” math that takes no genius to figure out.

    • A majority of voters preferred Peltola over Palin. If Republicans want a seat, either Palin needs to drop out, or Palin voters need to vote strategically for Begich, or Alaska needs to adopt a Condorcet RCV system.

  23. Hare RCV is always sold with lies, and people support it because they believe the lies, and then when it fails, it gets repealed and we go back to FPTP, which has all the same problems.

    Peltola won under RCV because Palin acted as a spoiler.

    Peltola would win under FPTP because Palin would act a spoiler.

    We need good voting systems that don’t suffer from the spoiler effect. If Alaska kept the ranked ballots but used a Condorcet ranked choice system that actually counts all the votes, Begich would have won.

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