An election data analyst who writes a Substack blog on election science describes Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, implemented for the first time this year, as an example of what not to do, because the person who got the most votes — Nick Begich — did not win election to Congress on Aug. 16. Instead, Mary Pelota won, the person who got the second-most combined votes.
The writer, who uses the pseudonym Draper, wrote that this is called the “Condorcet failure,” one of the big problems with ranked choice voting, also called instant run-off voting. For Alaska, it’s an election system failure that advanced a Democrat into Congress, even though voters clearly preferred a Republican, 60 to 40.
Begich was the person who got the most votes by a significant margin, with all first, second, and third votes combined, but that wasn’t enough in the Alaska system of voting.
He would also have defeated Sarah Palin in a head-to-head, and he would have won against Mary Peltola in a head-to-head, the data shows. Instead Peltola was the winner.
“This paradox is known in fancy-speak as ‘Condorcet Failure,’ (named after an 18th-century French mathematician),” Draper wrote. “Electing the Condorcet (or consensus) winner is a hallmark of a ‘good’ election method. IRV (instant run-off voting) failed this test in Alaska.”
To be specific, Begich defeated Palin with 101,229 vs. 63,619 preferential votes; he also defeated Peltola with 87,883 vs. 79,458 votes, Draper wrote.
But that’s only part of the math. Draper points out a more difficult concept to understand: If Mary Peltola would have gotten 5,163 more votes, she would have actually lost.
“This ‘More is Less’ IRV pathology has been known for decades and it is beyond the pale that it alone hasn’t stopped the push for more IRV adoption. Similar defect(s) showed up in Moab, UT (documented here),” Draper wrote.
In addition, Palin was the spoiler in the race, he said. Although ranked choice voting proponents say there is no “spoiler effect,” Draper said that if Palin had dropped out, Begich would have won, and that is the definition of a spoiler.
Finally, Peltola failed to win the true majority.
Peltola won with 91,266 votes out of 189,112 votes cast, which means Peltola was actually 3,026 votes short of a true majority.
Read the entire analysis by Draper at this link.
