Bernadette Wilson is leading the Republican field in a new Data for Progress poll of Alaska voters. The poll puts Mary Peltola, the one-term Democrat former US representative, in a precarious spot, showing she only has her Democrat-nonpartisan base, having shrunk significantly in her popularity in Alaska.
The new poll released this week by the left-leaning firm is being characterized as good news for Peltola, who has not announced her intentions. But a closer look reveals warning signs for the Democrat’s political future, and a clear path for Alaska Republicans to retain the governor’s seat.
The poll shows Peltola with a 52% favorable and 43% unfavorable rating, a +9 net favorability. While that makes her the most popular among Alaska’s recent statewide elected officials, the number also suggests a steep decline in her political standing over the past two years.
During her 2022 campaign and brief time in Congress, her net favorability was in the double digits and above 60%. She no longer appears to have support beyond her core Democrat and nonpartisan base.
Despite this softening support, Democrats are pressuring Peltola to run for governor or challenge US Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026. Her decision could hinge on polling like this — not just from Data for Progress, but also internal work from other Democrat pollsters.
The poll also asked voters about a hypothetical ranked-choice race for governor. Peltola holds an early lead, but the scenario is muddied by the fact that most Republican hopefuls remain unknown to most voters, with up to two-thirds saying they haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, a likely contender, clocks in at 20% favorable and 34% unfavorable, a −14 net rating. If she is the GOP’s standard bearer in a ranked-choice race against Peltola, the poll suggests she would lose in a landslide. The pollsters did not report their results of what would happen if Republican Bernadette Wilson, who is also Alaska Native, was the leading candidate against Peltola.
Surprisingly, the Republican with the most traction is, in fact, political newcomer Bernadette Wilson. Although she has never held or run for office, Wilson leads the Republican field with 11%, a clear signal that voters are searching for a new direction.
Other Republicans tested in the poll include former State Sen. Click Bishop, Matanuska-Susitna Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum, and Attorney General Treg Taylor, none of whom have broken through with the public. Taylor and DeVries did not even register enough results to be reported by Data for Progress.
The path to Republican victory is clear but narrow: Consolidate behind a single strong candidate before the general election, as was done in the 2024 congressional race. In that election, Republicans avoided splitting the vote, when Dahlstrom dropped out and allowed voters to rally around Nick Begich, who ultimately defeated Peltola and returned the seat to GOP hands.
The same strategy, narrowing the field early to prevent fragmentation, could apply to the 2026 governor’s race. Otherwise, Peltola’s base, while smaller, remains loyal and can prevail under Alaska’s ranked-choice system.
The Republican Party’s State Central Committee meets this weekend and the strategy of pressuring second- and third-place Republicans to drop will no doubt be a topic. Candidate Wilson has already made a pledge that if she is not the top vote-getter among Republican candidates during next August’s primary, she will withdraw.
““These poll results show that Alaska Republicans appreciate that historically, the leaders who have delivered have been the ones that came from outside the bureaucratic system. They are ready for a conservative outsider who supports President Trump and isn’t afraid to speak the truth and make the tough decisions Alaska needs,” said Bernadette Wilson in a statement on Friday. “Our state has so much potential, but we need strong leadership to unlock prosperity for our citizens and give future generations a pathway to success right here in Alaska. I truly believe that America’s strength starts with Alaska – and I couldn’t be more motivated to keep working hard to earn the vote of all Alaskans who want our state to flourish. Together we will show America what Alaska is made of!”
Data for Progress, which correctly predicted the 2024 Trump and Begich margins within 2.5 points, weighted its latest poll based on Alaska’s demographics and partisan lean.
Respondents reported voting for Trump in 2024 by a +13-point margin, mirroring the actual election result, suggesting the poll is reasonably representative.
The numbers don’t paint a rosy picture for Peltola. While she may remain the most recognizable and liked among Alaska’s politicians, her downward trend, combined with rising Republican unity, hints at a far more competitive landscape than Democrats might wish to admit.
If Peltola ran against Sen. Sullivan, Data for Progress puts her in a close second. Here’s what Data for Progress released from their poll, which was timed to promote a Peltola run — for something.
What does it say about Alaska when a candidate with Peltola’s credentials is a possible candidate? Poverty and addiction, yes, she is credentialed. Success and opportunity, not so much. Identity politics, dependency, and power to the public sector unions, sure. Individual empowerment, independence, and justice for all (not just the unions), not going to happen.
The weeping and gnashing will commence to the grave; not ever knowing, understanding, trading success for failure leads to despair. But you will have your pride and coat of many colors to comfort you.
And the streets of Anchorage, a prep course for your future.
The poll is very surprising given that Peltola didn’t do a damn thing while in Congress.
The “captain” is a know-nothing, do- nothing, obey her overlords, low IQ, seat holder.
Other than that, she’s a fine person.
But the poll is a joke. As another news site described it, “…a new survey from progressive pollster Data for Progress (DFP) shows.
I’m voting for Bernadette, and only Bernadette … “ONLY!”
I’m not ‘ranking’ anyone else, that’s how the system is rigged.
… ‘https://bernadetteforgovernor.com/
Conveniently left out Shelley Hughes from the poll. Anything to make Bernadette look good. The house of cards will fall when voters realize there is no there there.
Mr. Chambers. You are butt hurt about this? Is there a reason Data for Progress is not considering Shelley Hughes a viable candidate? Are you falling down on the job?
Is there a reason for a poll that clearly isn’t polling properly?
Good grief, Alaska Republicans. Get your act together. Peltola is a vacuous shill for her handlers and Party bosses. Is now and always has been. Sad, but absolutely true.
Alaska is doomed if Republicans do not put aside their egos and petty grievances and unite behind one candidate who has real vision, wisdom, and leadership.
Maybe Alaska is just doomed. Period.
I have met the guy who runs DFProgress in ANC.
He made a LOT of money as a tech engineer at the “startup” Airb&b and is likely worth millions due to bonus stock in that once fledgling company (he rides his bike everywhere & lives simply in Spenard)
Airb&b has corrupted many rental markets across the US & in AK, anywhere that has tourism feels the pain.
Airb&b has destroyed the Girdwood market and NO working person can afford to live there now.
.
After making ‘bank’ by growing homelessness in our country he then moved here from San Francisco to turn Alaska blue.
Our very own, bike riding, millionaire living here & working hard everyday to destroy us.
Tell me you hate the free market without saying you hate the free market (re AirBNB).
JG
Polls, you can’t trust them. Peltola has a proven record of failure and incompetence. She did nothing for Alaska and only the stupid and uninformed would ever consider supporting her.
And, there are plenty of “stupid and uninformed” in Alaska.
Highly dubious poll. I bet democrats and the university indoctrinated are given much more weight then then are represented in the voting population. Also, 678 likely voters is a thin sample for a state wide office.
Republicans need to field just one candidate. If not, the candidates will split the vote and Peltola will stroll on in like last time. Her base will and funding will be strong and no matter how bad she is, there are those who vote for the “D” not the person.
Data for Progress is a left-leaning pollster. Their numbers will reflect that their top spot, weak and loud Republican candidate, is their hope so that she will fail against the Democrat, Peltola, in the General election.
Trying to fool Alaska 2x? Not going to happen Mary. Maybe you will sue the state for not winning like you are trying for your late husband? Go flush yourself down the tubes please!
Get out, Click!!!
Election-wise, Alaska is sliding down a slippery slope, just like NYC and Minneapolis. Why not elect a “goof ” candidate instead of someone who could really do a good job?
Wilson a Native, who knew?
I thought she was a Hickel.
It’s nuts to think anyone can beat Click. He will have the union vote and much of the repubs.
click, Clack, Clunk!! Hes a,loser
Trump’s polling amongst the general voting population is at all-time lows because of his ill advised cover-up of the Epstein Scandal. Peltola can be sure of the Dems, but Wilson cannot be sure of MAGA and independents, which she will absolutely need. Word of advice – don’t get too close to Trump right now!
Sorry, but this has got to be one of those bogus polls.
Remember,
polls are created to shape opinion, not reflect it.
Remember Click voted to allow young Men into women’s sports & locker rooms! Click is a closet liberal Democrat, in my opinion!
Peltola does not even come close to being able to hold a spot in Politics!! She is worthless and does not contribute a darn thing!!