By the numbers: Evidence starting to show military confidence and recruitments rose after Trump win

By
Suzanne Downing
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27
Photo credit: Department of Defense

Anecdotal evidence that Americans have more confidence in the military now that Donald Trump has been elected is being supported by data.

Must Read Alaska interviewed a young man from the Mat-Su Valley this week who said that he and two of his friends enlisted in the military right after Trump was elected. The young men, right out of high school, had been waiting to see what kind of American would be commander-in-chief before they made the decision to join. The Trump win gave them confidence America would be heading in the right direction and leadership would have their backs.

The three young Alaskans may be part of a greater trend in confidence in the military growing once again, after four years of decline. Those numbers won’t be known until the military releases its next recruitment report.

Indeed, American public’s opinion of the military is turning around, according to the annual defense survey from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute.

This year, confidence in the military grew from 46% last year to 51% immediately after Trump’s victory, according to the survey that went into the field immediately after the election on Nov. 5.

During the Biden Administration, the military has fallen short of its recruiting goals, although the Army improved slightly over 2023.

In 2023, for example, military recruitment it fell short by 41,000, with the Army, Navy, and Air Force all missing their targets. The Marine Corps and Space Force were the two branches that met their recruitment goals. The military started 2024 at a record low in military recruitment, and the smallest active duty force since 1940.

“Year after year, this survey shows continued, unwavering support for peace through strength,” said Roger Zakheim, Director of the Ronald Reagan Institute. “Trust and confidence in the military is rebounding after hitting a low in recent years, and Americans support increased defense spending to build a military able to deter and defeat adversaries in multiple theaters.”

The latest survey details American opinions on international engagement.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed, including 61% of Trump voters, believe the United States should be more engaged and take the lead on the world stage, a 15-point increase from last year, the institute found.

Other key takeaways from the Ronald Reagan Defense Institute survey include:

  • A supermajority of Americans wants the United States to spend more on national defense. Seventy-nine percent of respondents want the United States to spend more on the military, including nearly nine out of ten (89%) Trump voters.
  • Trust in the U.S. military is rebounding, with 51% of respondents reporting a great deal of confidence, up 5% from last year.
  • This number is still nearly 20 points lower than in 2018, when 70% of respondents reported high confidence in the
    military, during the Trump Administration.
  • A majority of respondents (61%) believe the United States military should be large enough to win two simultaneous wars at once.
  • Half of Americans (49%) believe China poses the greatest threat to the United States, and 25% believe Russia poses
    the greatest threat. Only 52% of respondents think the U.S. military would win a war against China, while 64% believe the United States would win a war against Russia.
  • Americans still favor sending military aid to Ukraine but want a negotiated end to the war. Fifty-five percent of Americans believe the United States should send weapons to Ukraine, a slight decline from recent years. There are major partisan
    differences on this issue, with 74% of Harris voters supporting sending aid and only 42% of Trump voters.
  • A bipartisan majority (59%) supports Ukraine negotiating for peace, even if it requires conceding some territory to Russia.
  • In the Middle East, freeing American hostages is a top priority.
  • A majority (61%) wants freeing Americans held hostage by Hamas to be a top priority in the Middle East.
  • A majority (54%) also supports the United States providing military aid to Israel, including 67% of Trump voters and 46% of Harris voters.

The survey was conducted Nov. 8-14 by Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research. The sample size was 2,510, including 1,008 telephone interviews and 1,502 online surveys. The Institute conducts a similar survey after every election to gauge public opinion on matters of national security.

There are still major hurdles to rebuilding the military. One of them is that only 23% of young people between the ages of 17 and 24 qualify physically, in part because a growing number of young people are sedentary, obese, and have associated health issues that make them unable to meet the physical fitness requirements.

Additionally, the population in general is shrinking and there are fewer young people than in the past, due to smaller families. Many young people now don’t know anyone in their immediate family who has served, which decreases their exposure to military life.

Dig deeper into the survey results at this Ronald Reagan Foundation and Institute link.

According to the Army recent recruitment report for 2024, the branch met its regular Army recruitment goal for 2024, but missed badly in its recruitment for the Army Reserve:

Regular Army (RA):  55,150 (100.27% of 55,000 goal) 
Army Reserve (AR): 10,669 (72.8% of 14,650 goal)  

Special Operations Recruiting BN: 3,735 (77% of 4,851 mission)
Warrant Officers: 1,610 (99.5% of 1,618 mission)
Medical Mission: 1,376 (100.7% of 1,367 mission)
Chaplains: 286 (105.9% of 270 mission)

Demographics
Male:     RA  81.9%    AR 66.5[JR1] [JR2] % 
Female:     RA  18.1%    AR 33.5% 
Caucasian:     RA 40.5% AR 28.8% 
African American:     RA 25.8%    AR 28.6% 
Hispanic:     RA 26.1%    AR 32.1% 
Asian/Pacific Islander:     RA   6.6%   AR 9.9% 
Native American:     RA 1.0%    AR 0.6%

27 COMMENTS

  2. Given the results of the last election, whereby Trump carried 54% of Alaska’s vote (a clear mandate!), I would completely understand if Alaskans lost confidence in Daddy’s Little Princess, especially given her aggressive – militant – fringe – unhinged posture towards Trump and his Administrative nominees.
    Maybe(???), it’s time for her to face a confidence vote by voters now, rather than waiting until 2028? Don’t be surprised if results show that Alaskan’s are losing confidence in her and believe that she is more of a high-level risk and liability, rather than a reliable asset.

    • About time you woke up! Murkowski hasn’t been wanted here for years, Looks like it will be easier to get rid of her this time

  4. Wasteful defense spending would be the place for DOGE to start. Ironic that Trump voters want more global engagement while Trump wants to strong arm our allies into a trade war

    • Wasteful defense spending?
      Look at the billions in tax dollars Joe has spent on Ukraines defense all in the name of repaying the bribes and grifting when he sent his prostitute son over to be on the board of a gas business….in spite of the fact the only thing he knows about gas is passing gas.
      Not to mention democrats love wars.
      They make millions for their cronies invested in the war industry with plenty of kickbacks.

  5. Frank and Greg have no idea what the pulse of Americans is. Neither of you got the message the rest of the nation sent on Nov 5th.

  6. Only 1% of the military is Native American’s?? Appears they want the benefits of living in America w/o earning them.

    • Well, Native Americans only make up 1.3% of the US population, so 1% is actually pretty good. Compare that to white (non-Hispanic) recruits, they make up 58% of the US population yet only 40.5% of the regular army’s 2024 recruits. So, looks like Native Americans want to earn the benefits of living in American far more than most non-Hispanic white people. What may really blow your mind is that despite being only 13.7% of the population, black Americans made up 26% of new recruits. Hispanics are over represented, as are Pacific Islanders and Asians.

      So, by your math, white folks need to do a bit more to earn those American benefits.

      ‘https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045223

  7. We spend more on military then the next eight countries combined and 79% want to spend more??? Perhaps people should ask what we are getting for the money. You have to hand it to the marketing efforts of the military industrial complex however. It really isn’t the immigrants and welfare moms that are causing the country to go broke.

  8. As a veteran and a Trump supporter it is mho that with the November results, we are going to see an increase in the number of young people enlisting in the military. Nothing close to the numbers we saw in the late 60’s and after 9/11, but an increase, nevertheless.
    We do need a stronger military, but we need to limit the cost of the “systems” because of the wasteful spending. I am sure things haven’t changed much from when I was on active duty. In order to increase a unit’s budget, all the money from the prior year had to be spent, thus extra missions were planned, training was increased, TDY’s were increased, items were bought that were not really necessary to accomplish the mission. Items were overpriced, like $89.00 hammer or $125 toilet seat, because the contractors knew the funds had to be spent. I am praying the DOGE can correct some of these mistakes, eliminate some positions in the overall size of government through a RIF (reduction in force) program where entire offices are closed in the name of cost reduction.
    That’s my 2 cents worth for today.

  9. Pretty sure kids in the late 1960s were enlisting. We had this draft thing going on. The United States has to stay competitive with the rogue nations. We can’t afford to fall any further behind. That’s with conventional warfare armament, we are decades ahead of everyone on the star wars stuff.

  10. “By the numbers: Evidence starting to show military confidence and recruitments rose after Trump win” … a casual observer might assume that ‘confidence’ in this context might possibly mean that the herr drumpf is an inspiration for young folks to display their patriotism in the USA by enlisting en masse after November 6th. Some might have doubts that’s it at all considering the unsavory character of the man that is supposed to be the leader, and his elusive military journalist enlistee side-kick, and the disreputable ‘pick’. How to explain, then “In 2022, the Army started the Future Soldier Prep course, designed to help young men and women unlock their potential academic and fitness readiness for military service. It has since had a graduation rate over 90 percent in both academic and physical tracks with over 10,000 from the program joining the Army last year.”? Would it be too presumptuous to think that the US military is the deep state and was planning for these election results?

    Half the members of my large immediate family represent various military branches. ALL the living veterans voting resoundingly for Vice-President Harris and Mr Walz, and still claim affiliation with a Republican political party. Recognizing that drumph doesn’t really represent the ideology of anyone than himself, I would daresay that the young recruits understand the threat of a drumpfian trojan horse to put their lives on the line for our country, not its so-called recently elected ‘leaders’, understanding a 1.4% difference in votes is not a majority, and many cases a referendum on the US alignment with incited unrest in Israel, and projected ill-will of MAGA toward Ukraine. Other opinions may differ, but ‘54%’ of Alaskan vote doesn’t necessarily represent that of the whole country.

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