Assumptions and projections on Begich-Peltola race

6

It’s Day 3 after Election Day, and due to the vagaries and unknowns that come with ranked-choice voting, Alaska still has no congressional representative-elect.

But our Must Read Alaska analysis shows that Nick Begich will, in fact, win for Congress. It’s based on assumptions and projections:

Assuming all of the remaining absentee and early-vote ballots are going to break out by district the way the existing counted vote has gone, this would mean Begich would receive 40% of the 25,000 as-of-yet uncounted absentee votes.

This does not mean Peltola will get 60% of those, because there is still third-party candidate John Wayne Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner.

Using the same assumption — that uncounted votes will reflect the pattern of already-counted votes — Begich will get 53.6% of the remaining 22,000 early votes.

Those two numbers would mean Begich would see as much as 4,000 of his current 10,000-vote lead eroded, but he would still be the leading candidate.

That would then lead to the ranked-choice scenario designed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s minions.

In that process, the second votes of Eric Hafner and John Wayne Howe would be distributed. Some will be exhausted ballots, with no second or third choice.

But because Peltola spent millions of dollars trying to reach white working-class men with a message that they should only vote for Howe, (because only he would be conservative enough for them,) those voters who believed her are not likely to mark Peltola second. These were not Democrat voters who she was trying to manipulate with her message — they were conservatives.

Before the ranked-choice process, we predict Begich will lead by as much as 5,600 votes.

As Hafner and Howe are eliminated the total universe reduces to the binary choice: Republican Begich and a Democrat Peltola. Now, with those two others out, Begich is highly likely to win by a margin of 2,000-6,000 votes.

Whether the Peltola campaign or the Democrats will then sue the Division of Elections over some aspect of the election is an unknown. The Democrats have sued at every turn during this election season, and past performance may predict their future behavior.

But the National Republican Congressional Committee has sent lawyers and staff to Alaska to ensure the vote count is done properly and they are on site now in Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau.

On the other side, Democrats have not even put a person in charge of observing the absentee ballot adjudication process in Wasilla, a recognition they know things are not going well for them.

Monday is Veterans Day, and no votes will be counted.

The next count will be on Tuesday, Nov. 12, to count all received early and absentee votes not already counted.

Stop by Must Read Alaska for more analysis as the election plays out over the coming days.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Scott Kendall will have his dirty little fingers in the batter, hoping to stir up some slimy pudding for the Democrats. Maybe he will hire wretched, loser-lawyer Savannah Fletcher’s law office up in Fairbanks to help open absentee ballot envelopes. Nick Begich III will be the guy to push the Republican majority clearly over the line of scrimmage.

  2. What a relief to know the results of the national ballot before midnight. I assume and project that ballot measure 2 passed too. Absentee and vote by mail should have a deadline where they can be all counted on election day.

  3. Big deal, Suzanne, Begich has the seat–all else is merely pro forma. What a deal, eh–working for the people! It doesn’t take a genius to realize that there are better things in life than working for the ingrates! He must have some sort of “savior complex,” but I suspect that he’ll end up leaving the House–when he does–feeling all wrung out!

  4. Thank you for an excellent analysis, Suzanne.

    It’s an embarrassment to our state that it is taking so long to count the votes.
    Good grief, there are only 733,000 people in our small population state, and this level of incompetence is inexcusable.

    The tiny outlying villages, should have been able to tally their 50-100 votes in 30 minutes, take a picture of the tally sheet, and send it in an email and be done with it…..but nope, 3 days later we’re still waiting.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.