It’s Day 3 after Election Day, and due to the vagaries and unknowns that come with ranked-choice voting, Alaska still has no congressional representative-elect.
But our Must Read Alaska analysis shows that Nick Begich will, in fact, win for Congress. It’s based on assumptions and projections:
Assuming all of the remaining absentee and early-vote ballots are going to break out by district the way the existing counted vote has gone, this would mean Begich would receive 40% of the 25,000 as-of-yet uncounted absentee votes.
This does not mean Peltola will get 60% of those, because there is still third-party candidate John Wayne Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner.
Using the same assumption — that uncounted votes will reflect the pattern of already-counted votes — Begich will get 53.6% of the remaining 22,000 early votes.
Those two numbers would mean Begich would see as much as 4,000 of his current 10,000-vote lead eroded, but he would still be the leading candidate.
That would then lead to the ranked-choice scenario designed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s minions.
In that process, the second votes of Eric Hafner and John Wayne Howe would be distributed. Some will be exhausted ballots, with no second or third choice.
But because Peltola spent millions of dollars trying to reach white working-class men with a message that they should only vote for Howe, (because only he would be conservative enough for them,) those voters who believed her are not likely to mark Peltola second. These were not Democrat voters who she was trying to manipulate with her message — they were conservatives.
Before the ranked-choice process, we predict Begich will lead by as much as 5,600 votes.
As Hafner and Howe are eliminated the total universe reduces to the binary choice: Republican Begich and a Democrat Peltola. Now, with those two others out, Begich is highly likely to win by a margin of 2,000-6,000 votes.
Whether the Peltola campaign or the Democrats will then sue the Division of Elections over some aspect of the election is an unknown. The Democrats have sued at every turn during this election season, and past performance may predict their future behavior.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee has sent lawyers and staff to Alaska to ensure the vote count is done properly and they are on site now in Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Juneau.
On the other side, Democrats have not even put a person in charge of observing the absentee ballot adjudication process in Wasilla, a recognition they know things are not going well for them.
Monday is Veterans Day, and no votes will be counted.
The next count will be on Tuesday, Nov. 12, to count all received early and absentee votes not already counted.
Stop by Must Read Alaska for more analysis as the election plays out over the coming days.
I voted absentee: Hafner second, Peltola fifth after write-in of a neighbor.
Thanks for nothing.
He did the right thing. He obstructed the RCV process. We know how to play the game. Do you think we are going to play by their rules?
I agree: Queering the process was the right thing. DJT, JWH, Convict, mom (write in), and blank on the last.
Scott Kendall will have his dirty little fingers in the batter, hoping to stir up some slimy pudding for the Democrats. Maybe he will hire wretched, loser-lawyer Savannah Fletcher’s law office up in Fairbanks to help open absentee ballot envelopes. Nick Begich III will be the guy to push the Republican majority clearly over the line of scrimmage.
I wouldn’t be surprised.
After duping outside fat-cat dark money people into wasting $12 million on opposing Proposition 2, I would not be surprised to see Mr. Kendall quietly move to New Zealand or Spitsbergen for a while. In some parts of the US, particularly in the east, some folks get kinda upset about being separated from $12 million large.
If Kendall moves, he can invite his entire Hopkins extended family to move with him.
Whichever country they move to, the Hopkins will be running for office. They carry their Marxists handbooks with them.
…” Past the line of scrimmage.”? You need to work on your metaphors! We need him to carry the ball for a “1st down” or a “Third and Short” at least! I think we’re only two points behind and within field goal range anyway! We don’t have one of those weak ankle reformed soccer kickers do we?
Dennis,
You got it correct. Ha. And I used to play back in the day, probably before you were born.🤣
We need to make the “line to gain”
I would not doubt that Mark Elias has provided resources for both Peltola and the NO on two dark money campaigns.
What a relief to know the results of the national ballot before midnight. I assume and project that ballot measure 2 passed too. Absentee and vote by mail should have a deadline where they can be all counted on election day.
Big deal, Suzanne, Begich has the seat–all else is merely pro forma. What a deal, eh–working for the people! It doesn’t take a genius to realize that there are better things in life than working for the ingrates! He must have some sort of “savior complex,” but I suspect that he’ll end up leaving the House–when he does–feeling all wrung out!
Couple years he will probably run against Princess Lisa,
Thank you for an excellent analysis, Suzanne.
It’s an embarrassment to our state that it is taking so long to count the votes.
Good grief, there are only 733,000 people in our small population state, and this level of incompetence is inexcusable.
The tiny outlying villages, should have been able to tally their 50-100 votes in 30 minutes, take a picture of the tally sheet, and send it in an email and be done with it…..but nope, 3 days later we’re still waiting.
Absolutely true.
Man, this voting system is the pitts.
We have to remember that it is not who votes, but who counts the votes that will determine these races. Guess where all the ballots get shipped to to be counted? Juneau – a blue, blue city.
Exactly, they’re now sitting in the secret little building on the outskirts of town. Who has access to them? We don’t know.
“They take this long to make a decision, they’re gonna decide to screw someone.”
Based on the current numbers (as of 10:35 am Friday, November 8th), only 2184 of the 12370 votes for Howe and Hafner would have to be exhausted for Begich to be one ballot over 50%. That number will be increased by ballots cast for anyone else and decreased by any ballots for him. as more ballots are counted. But the required percentage (roughly 17%) of the exhausted ballots will probably remain somewhere in that vicinity. It is not a very big hurdle, at all.
After this— even the pro’ no on yes ‘ ppl see this is bad after all. What is there to like about this? ! Nothing!
If we didn’t have RCV this would have been decided. What exactly are you trying to say? BTW RCV is being defeated.
And this is what’s wrong with the rain choice voting system instead of having your vote one vote count there’s multiple votes that have to be tabulated and figure out by the system who has control of your vote not you. If we had One person one vote we would know the answer already. This rank choice voting system sucks and some warrior ought to take it to court. It should be illegal to have multiple voting choices.
It is not who voted or who you voted for, but who counts the votes!
Alaska is looking sad to the states that have counted millions
So looking at the “districts not reported” on the elections website, there are only 2 districts holding up the official count tally. Atkasuq in D38 and Akiachik in D40 for the HR election…Atkasuq only has 155 registered voters with 0 cast and Akiachik has 443 registered voters and again with 0 cast…seems like something funny is going on, or is it just me??? Meanwhile NB hovers right at the cusp of winning and MP keeps slowly, and almost indiscriminately creeping closer. So SOMEHOW NB is getting ZERO votes in all this while MP somehow is gaining votes slowly and steadily, almost as if we aren’t supposed to notice that!!! Well, if it looks like and smells like horse puckey, you know the rest…
The RCV needs to be eliminated. That said, it could be worse. Once a state transitions to mail in only, it is game over, one party rule, forever.
There is no way for the public to vote their way out, as a repeal initiative would also be voted by mail in ballots.
I don’t trust Alaskas remote districts. I bet they have harvested ballots, and went through the existing “exhausted” ballots and filled in their Democrat Petola as 2nd choice that could tremendously sway the vote. Alaska is corrupted AF. We require State Troopers at every District polling site to further secure Alaskans Constitutional voting right is done fair and square. BTW Trump won 3 times
This news might be important but the biggest news not yet reported is “LISA MURKOWSKI HAS LOST ALL HER INFLUENCE”. With 53 plus republicans, both Murkowski and Susan Collins cannot hold the Senate Republicans hostage. Lisa can even become a Independent, (Yeah right and lose a committee chair) but those two votes mean nothing as there are at least two more Republican votes to get past 50 (One extra and VP). If I were the new Majority Leader, I would knock her down one notch to show others. But she is done with any influence within the party
It is a wonderful situation! It is truly a lose-lose situation for the deranged cat-lady.
Hope you are right. On the bright side, it will be amusing to watch Lisa try and suck up to Trump and ask for favors! As if he might not recall that she wanted to impeach him, refused to endorse him, etc!
DJT is nothing at all like Joe “hasbeen” Biden.
The Donald actually has a functioning memory so not to worry on that.
Suzanne, I presume that your assumptions and projections are indeed, correct, and within direct reflection of the strong showing of those that chose sanity, based upon their voting choices.
That said.
This was a Presidential, Senatorial for some States, and Congressional vote, along with Judicial choices and a couple of very important ballot measures, and conservatives turned out within droves, to say the least, and very proudly so.
This is generally the aspect within a national election, whereas more turn out to vote than within a local election, within that result of said election actually affects the populace more so than a national election.
May I suggest that the voting populace, that enabled this victory, to carry on their voting habits, and increase it, into the local races involving the Assembly and local ballot measures, so as to defeat their local overseers within the Socialist mindset so as to return Anchorage unto a City that serves its populace, rather than a populace that serves its City?
Take down the Assembly by sheer numbers of votes, so much so that they have no recourse but to go withering into the night, as such they deserve.
Each and every one of them.
I looked at the available numbers and turn out is about 20% LESS than places like AZ or PA. That could be caused by two things, unmotivated and uneducated (as to the issues and candidates) voters or a MASSIVELY inflated voter roll. Or, and I believe this, both. If you look at the voting pattern in district 24 the early (motivated) voters defeated Kelly Merrick. The day of vote got her elected, but even in this very conservative district the turnout was not even 50%. I am proud to say I live in Peter’s Creek 1 the most solid conservative precinct in the district, perhaps the state. Congratulations to our neighbor Nick Begich.
Well looks like We solved part of the problem moving forward …
#buhbyercv
At least we are rid of this goat screw RCV BS. Please fix things so we aren’t the laughing stock with results slower than molasses running uphill in January!
We are still waiting for the count to finish before we find out if we got rid of RCV or not. I believe that the counting finishes on 11-20-24. In other words, they probably have to print just enough ballots to make the RCV repeal lose so that Murkowski will be able to continue her reign of terror.
My wife and I voted our ballots by marking the oval on the 1st choice line only for each office: Trump, Begich and Cronk.
Assuming Begich does not win on the first count, are our votes counted in the subsequent 2, 3 and 4th rounds?
Yes. The first round votes stay the same, then if after the first count no one is over 50% the second and third choices of the lower vote getter’s ballots are sysyematically assigned to the higher-ups until someone breaks 50%.
Because 50+% is magically more valid than, say, a 49.6% plurality in the minds of RCV proponents.
There is no reason, other than their own policy regs, for the division not to release the allocation of 2nd rank choices immediately. All the numbers can be amended when the final ballots arrive. Why does the election division get to see this information while concealing it from us voters? After all, the voters own the information.
Nancy Dahlstrom is a useless waste of a salary?
I know why the counting is taking so long. Now that we know what the current vote tallies are, it is more clear just how many votes need to be manufactured to ensure two more years of Mary Peltola.
The (S)election Commission is waiting for more ballots to be printed up, with MP as the first and only choice. Just watch for it.
I don’t want a vagary!
The best news in Alaska politics this year is that Rank Choice Voting is going down in flames. This is a spectacular result despite all the ‘dark money’ and countless lies carpet bombing voters in relentless ads. (You listening, Lost Cause Lisa?). The second best news is that Nick Begich will replace the hapless Mary Peltola who represented party interests and not Alaska’s. All this, along with Trump / Vance juggernaut victory, life is good.
We need to maintain the initiative. We need a conservative state legislature. We need the capitol in a location that is responsive to voters and not lobbyists. And we need to flip the Anchorage assembly. We need the voter rolls cleaned out and we need a LT Governor who does her damn job.
Sapper, you may want to attend the Anchorage ASSembly meetings.
Lately I have noticed the ASSembly has already flipped…..have you seen the costume worn lately at the meeting after election day???
Yes. Cosplay freakshow ideologues.
Thank you for your article explaining this to a non-Alaskan. I’m watching Alaska, AZ and CA desperately try to steal the US House and subvert the obvious will of the people to clean house. I suspect taking marching orders from DC to coordinate a steal, certainly in CA and AZ. Ridiculous.
Question!
Are the RCV 2nd choice votes counted before candidate elimination OR counted then the elimination?
Thank you
We voted it out, it should apply immediately. Just like it did when M. Begich won an election based on a prop that put him in without a run off.
Six days since the vote!!! WHERE THE HOLY HELL ARE THE RESULTS?????
The results are held up by villages with populations of 50-300 in the interior. Try to explain that to the national press.