Volatility in global oil markets is rippling into Alaska’s economy as North Slope crude prices react to mounting tensions between Israel and Iran.
In early trading for the week starting June 15, Brent crude oil surged to $74.23 per barrel, a 7.02% increase from the day before. West Texas Intermediate crude followed suit, rising 7.26% to $72.98 per barrel. These price jumps come right after Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, which spooked global markets and raised fears of a wider regional conflict.
North Slope oil prices typically track closely with Brent and WTI benchmarks, which puts Alaska’s oil-dependent revenue stream at the mercy of global fluctuations. Some analysts speculate Brent prices could breach $80 if threats to the Strait of Hormuz escalate.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, has emerged as a flashpoint. Any disruption there would likely drive up prices further, benefitting Alaska’s oil revenue in the short term. On Saturday, a member of the Iranian parliament said closing the Strait of Hormuz was “under serious consideration” in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, according to Al Jazeera news source.
Iran has a history of seizing or harassing commercial vessels in or near the Strait. In April 2024, the IRGC seized a container ship linked to Israel near the Strait, amid tensions following Israeli strikes on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ had already decided to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, as part of a gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts that are set to phase out by September 2026. The group will reconvene on July 1 to decide August production levels, a meeting now carrying heightened significance in light of recent geopolitical developments.
While increased production levels could dampen price spikes, they also raise the risk of oversupply if the global economy slows or if demand softens. The US Energy Information Administration’s forecast of $65–$66 per barrel for 2025, with Brent crude oil price falling to about $59 per barrel in 2026. That forecast was made before the fighting started again between Israel and Iran.
Even a $10 per barrel swing in oil prices can significantly impact state revenue in Alaska, which can benefit or suffer from the vagaries of the commodity market.
The unprovoked, undeclared war commenced by Israel, with full approval, knowledge and assistance by our military infrastructure has nothing to do with “Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites”.
Israel attempted a leadership decapitation strike, in the middle of negotiations. They did manage to assassinate +/- 20 Iranian generals and scientists, amongst the hundreds of civilians and children they targeted.
Israel does not even possess the weaponry to “take out” underground uranium enrichment facilities if it wanted to. Israel needed to start the carnage and then pretend to beg Congress and Trump to enter the war to prevent their own destruction by retaliation. Israel has purchased most of Congress and the Trump Administration, and is used to us doing their bidding against our own best interests.
The depth of these underground facilities require multiple sorties of B-2 bombers with numerous GBU-57 bombs dropped in sequence on specific locations to maybe, probably not, destroy these facilities.
Israel in the meantime will be destroyed as they in no way can win a war of attrition using missiles, nor can they send an expeditionary force to attempt a land war against Iran.
We were unable to “win” as defined by accomplishing the creation of passive vassal states by land wars against Iraq or Afghanistan. Our navy was unable to defeat motivated Yemeni tribesmen. Israel will not accomplish this in Iran.
The worst is the US and now Trump have lost all credibility of stable and peaceful diplomacy on the world stage.
Russia which retains global credibility and can actually talk to the US, Israel and Iran all simultaneously, has offered to diffuse this latest American made catastrophe.
If this isn’t resolved, Iran will build nuclear war heads to counter Israel which already has them. We just created another dilemma by idiocy out of what was an easily solved issue.
Yeah..
If there was a rumor that oil would hit $300.00 a barrel, our government would dive upon that and base the budget on it.
Legislators must be getting a tingling feeling with oil prices bouncing up: more money to spend!
This doesn’t sync with Trump’s promise of $2/gallon by Labor Day does it? We had best drill baby…….