Volatility in global oil markets is rippling into Alaska’s economy as North Slope crude prices react to mounting tensions between Israel and Iran.
In early trading for the week starting June 15, Brent crude oil surged to $74.23 per barrel, a 7.02% increase from the day before. West Texas Intermediate crude followed suit, rising 7.26% to $72.98 per barrel. These price jumps come right after Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, which spooked global markets and raised fears of a wider regional conflict.
North Slope oil prices typically track closely with Brent and WTI benchmarks, which puts Alaska’s oil-dependent revenue stream at the mercy of global fluctuations. Some analysts speculate Brent prices could breach $80 if threats to the Strait of Hormuz escalate.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, has emerged as a flashpoint. Any disruption there would likely drive up prices further, benefitting Alaska’s oil revenue in the short term. On Saturday, a member of the Iranian parliament said closing the Strait of Hormuz was “under serious consideration” in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, according to Al Jazeera news source.
Iran has a history of seizing or harassing commercial vessels in or near the Strait. In April 2024, the IRGC seized a container ship linked to Israel near the Strait, amid tensions following Israeli strikes on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ had already decided to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, as part of a gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts that are set to phase out by September 2026. The group will reconvene on July 1 to decide August production levels, a meeting now carrying heightened significance in light of recent geopolitical developments.
While increased production levels could dampen price spikes, they also raise the risk of oversupply if the global economy slows or if demand softens. The US Energy Information Administration’s forecast of $65–$66 per barrel for 2025, with Brent crude oil price falling to about $59 per barrel in 2026. That forecast was made before the fighting started again between Israel and Iran.
Even a $10 per barrel swing in oil prices can significantly impact state revenue in Alaska, which can benefit or suffer from the vagaries of the commodity market.
The unprovoked, undeclared war commenced by Israel, with full approval, knowledge and assistance by our military infrastructure has nothing to do with “Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites”.
Israel attempted a leadership decapitation strike, in the middle of negotiations. They did manage to assassinate +/- 20 Iranian generals and scientists, amongst the hundreds of civilians and children they targeted.
Israel does not even possess the weaponry to “take out” underground uranium enrichment facilities if it wanted to. Israel needed to start the carnage and then pretend to beg Congress and Trump to enter the war to prevent their own destruction by retaliation. Israel has purchased most of Congress and the Trump Administration, and is used to us doing their bidding against our own best interests.
The depth of these underground facilities require multiple sorties of B-2 bombers with numerous GBU-57 bombs dropped in sequence on specific locations to maybe, probably not, destroy these facilities.
Israel in the meantime will be destroyed as they in no way can win a war of attrition using missiles, nor can they send an expeditionary force to attempt a land war against Iran.
We were unable to “win” as defined by accomplishing the creation of passive vassal states by land wars against Iraq or Afghanistan. Our navy was unable to defeat motivated Yemeni tribesmen. Israel will not accomplish this in Iran.
The worst is the US and now Trump have lost all credibility of stable and peaceful diplomacy on the world stage.
Russia which retains global credibility and can actually talk to the US, Israel and Iran all simultaneously, has offered to diffuse this latest American made catastrophe.
If this isn’t resolved, Iran will build nuclear war heads to counter Israel which already has them. We just created another dilemma by idiocy out of what was an easily solved issue.
Unprovoked.?? Israel has nuclear capabilities. I guess you would rather wait for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon than kick their a// right now. Clearly you know nothing about Israel. They will prevail like they always have. History speaks for itself. I would be wary bad mouthing Israel if I were you. Iran has been a menace for years.
You dont know what you’re talking about do you?
Excellent comment, Brian!
I too am disgusted, and long been disgusted, by the death grip that Israel and its lackeys in AIPAC have long held on US foreign policy. How so-called “conservatives” square that circle while chanting “America First!” is quite a fascinating exercise in mental gymnastics.
What’s amazing is people who pretend to be “conservative” and pretend to support President Trump and America first are squarely on the side of terrotistic muslims who deliberately lob missiles into civilian areas after swearing to destroy all Jews and “wipe them off the map”, but it’s not unexpected from people who have repeatedly shared their antisemitic views and support for those who believe in the genocide of all Jews as the completion of the final solution.
How any thinking person who believes in anything that America has to offer could believe that allowing a country such as Iran to develop a nuclear arsenal would be a good idea is contrary to basic logic. Of course such a person no doubt believed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he said “Anybody who recognises Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation’s fury, any who recognises the Zionist regime means he is acknowledging the surrender and defeat of the Islamic world.” But then it’s clear to all who is doing mental gymnastics to claim they support America while simultaneously supporting those who chant “death to America”
Yeah..
If there was a rumor that oil would hit $300.00 a barrel, our government would dive upon that and base the budget on it.
Legislators must be getting a tingling feeling with oil prices bouncing up: more money to spend!
This doesn’t sync with Trump’s promise of $2/gallon by Labor Day does it? We had best drill baby…….
That’s the point of developing out own oil suplly, Sebastian The Short-Sighted, to not have to put up with disruptions from the Sandbox when they have their little tantrums. Its best to be able to just ignore them and let them settle it THERE, no longer our simians, nor our acrobatic shows.
Nobody is on the side of Iran. When Iran develops a Nuke they will use it against the Jewish State.
Note, Iran bank rolled the Palestine invasion of Israel. Then Iran Launched attacks against Israel.
To declare that Israel launched an unprovoked attack is unbelievably dumb.
This Nuke show down has been building since Obama. Well over 15 years plus. With Iran’s history of attacking Israel or using a Proxy, leaves little doubt that Iran would not hesitate to Nuke Israel.
How the US will be involved is obvious. We will drop bunker the bombs. The World will be a happier place. Within a week nobody will mention it.