TRUMP AND YOUNG ALSO CLIMB
With millions of dollars of negative advertising now pummeling Sen. Dan Sullivan, the latest news from pollsters has to worry the Alan Gross campaign.
A New York Times poll that skews left has Sullivan up by 8 points. But drilling down into the methodology, the advantage to Sullivan may actually be as high as 12 percent.
While the poll under-sampled the 2016 Hillary Clinton voters by 4 percent, it under sampled Donald Trump voters even more — by 8 percent. The NYT poll found that 32 percent of respondents said they voted for Clinton, and 43 percent said they voted for Trump in 2016.
The actual vote in 2016 was Cinton-36%, Trump-51%, and Gary Johnson, libertarian – 5.9%. That means the poll wasn’t sampling a valid voter base.
The poll also over-sampled women voters. 51 percent of respondents were female, while 48 percent were male. But in Alaska, there are 108 men for every 100 women. Women tend to vote more liberal than men and their answers skew the polls.
This is good news for the Sullivan campaign but also good for that of Congressman Don Young, which this left-leaning poll has up 49-41 over challenger Alyse Galvin.
In the NYT poll, Donald Trump is also winning Alaska 45-39 over Joe Biden.
The poll was conducted with 423 Alaskans between Oct. 9-14, and has a margin of error of 5.7 percent. That margin of error puts Trump, Sullivan, and Young solidly in the lead, even if the poll swings wrong in the challengers’ favor.
Gross had raised $13.9 million through September, while Sullivan has only raised $9.4 million for his race. Independent groups such as the Lincoln Project have spent tens of millions of dollars on attack ads to oust Sullivan. The spending is believed to be 4-to-1 to the Gross advantage.
A pollster hired by the Gross campaign shows him leading Sullivan by one point, 47-46, and shows Trump winning Alaska over Biden by just three points, 49-46.
Patinkin Research of Portland, which polls for liberals and liberal causes, reach 600 respondents; 56 percent were on cell phones, with the remaining 44 percent were on landlines. Little other data was revealed about this poll.
I’ve been blocking all the pollsters and yet they try again with a new number. Have only gotten requests for Galvin and Gross but I do not respond. I’m tired of all the tree killing ads from Galvin and Gross in my mailbox.
I get Lance Pruitt’s too. Not even in his district.
I receive polling calls, sometimes several daily, to which I hang up on all. I guess they miscount me a Gross/Galvin vote.
Funny I never get sampled in these Polls but like I said in the past you can make a poll say what every you want with the sample size and demographics and leading questions on how you want them answered. I never believe these Polls as in 2016 Hillary Clinton was supposed to win by a landslide but it went the other way.
I don’t know why anyone would truthfully answer a poll.
Gross will fail and probably never come back to Alaska. Good riddance…
You know that the Lincoln Project is not Independent…but a Far Left platform.
Alaskans aren’t stupid enough to fall for Al Gross’ lame attacks on Senator Sullivan and it’s showing in the polls. The liberal mob has no place in Alaska.
There is no liberal mob in Alaska. There is a majority of non-Partisan registered voters.
45-39? Does that mean 6 for JoJorgensen? When al called me they said Jo wasn’t an option. When Alyse called me, they said I could pick Libertarian or Green, but misidentified the Libertarian candidate as “spike cohen”. Alyse Gavin erasing women’s voices, who’da thunk it???
I answered a poll on those dates and of course I put into action “Operation Chaos”………….I told them I was gonna vote Democrat.
Gross had blown his load already. Sullivan will run away in slide. Such a gentleman. Gross is is a rather ugly bag of wind.
Hey, Doctor Al: Look at the bright side, you already have a nice place in Santa Barbara, where you would prefer to live if the Washington, DC scam doesn’t work out… And you may be a bit of a pseudo-celebrity there, being a “Bear Doctor” and all.
The bear story has been discredited by AK F&G. Haven’t seen the ad on TV for awhile.
Dan’s a good marine.
Gross is not.
Enough said.
SALUTE.
Dan has a US military retirement, a State of Alaska retirement, and now a US senatorial retirement. All government jobs one to the other.
Not really the smaller government guy you were asking for now is he?
I have fun with those polling calls. I kept them on the line up to 28 minutes and 10 sec. That’s my highest record.
6-9 pm my polling call comes in out of ellenburg Washington… ( keeping local????) I have heard how Dan has practically insulin from a ladies child….lies like that. The last call no longer pushed gross ….new tactic… What about JOHN WAYNE… 2 days and no calls?.
Why do I drag these calls out…. Because we need Sen. Sullivan and when these people call me they are wasting their time, I am keeping a uninformed person who is just emotional from being conned to vote for AOC of the North.
I’m envious. I’ve had my number a long time and I have never received a polling call from either side. Paisley, I’d pay to hear yours, it sounds hilarious.
I consider answering poll questions a “sport…..”
Most fun is the demographics part. I leave ’em wondering why a gay, black, registered Democrat is so supportive of Trump!
Not surprising.
I hear about a million Al Gross ads a day on the radio and TV, I get a NYC sized phone book amount of campaign mail from the Gross campaign every day. And, not a single bit of it says what Al Gross is going to do to help Alaska, they just knock Senator Sullivan.
Curiously, at least in my house and among my associates the things Gross knocks Senator Sullivan for are the items we think he is doing correctly. Voting with the party platform? Good! Voting to protect the unborn? Good. Voting against that albatross around the nation’s neck known as Obamacare? Double specials super good!
I see nothing positive about Al Gross, and frankly he reminds me of Vic Vickers.
We have caller ID. We never, ever answer a pollster. We are the vast, untapped, hidden vote. ???
Had a Gross pollster knocking on my door last evening – let’s say it didn’t go well for her!
As the American for Prosperity had at my door.
Facebook’s Libertarian Poll Data workgroup is communication central of the world movement since Yahoo died and has great data debated by statistical experts and on-the-ground people in almost every country. They alerted on COVID in December 2019!
They say there’re severe problems with the 2020 polls, and correctly called Trump in 2016.
Trump is surging and Jorgensen’s doing 8% in Alaska. But the Dems predict a Bidenslide.
Dr. Al Gross’s pathetic ad (the one with the “crickets” chirping for Sen. Sullivan’s responses to strawman arguments…), playing twice a commercial break on nearly every media station radio/tv, is going to encourage those who hate political ads to vote against him with enthusiasm. I know it has for me.
Can’t wait to vote for Sen. Sullivan!
Liberals are spending a lot of money on this loser. Alaskans need to send him scurrying back to California.
Personally, I think it is a great ad because it informs Alaskans who Al Gross truly is and who supports him.
When was the last time any Alaskan heard a cricket?
Only lower-48ers could make that kind of stupid mistake.
George Soros, Bloomberg and their ilk are spending huge money to defeat Republicans this year and will stop at nothing to stop the Great American comeback. Alaska will not allow outsiders to influence their choice of the best people to take our Nation forward towards Liberty, Justice and Prosperity. Joe Biden has proudly proclaimed he will end Oil, which will end Alaska! This is a great blog site because you can’t find this kind of information on the lying MSM. I will continue to support this wonderful site.
Thank you!
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