41% of Palin voters didn’t rank anyone second, but even with that, Begich is proven to be most viable vs Peltola

By
Suzanne Downing
-
125

Palin’s recommendation to her followers to not comply with Alaska’s ranked choice voting system worked for her: 41% of the people who voted for Palin did not fill in a second bubble for any other candidate. Thus, the win was handed to Democrat Mary Peltola, who will be sworn in next week as Alaska’s next congresswoman.

The data from the Division of Elections is still being analyzed by the Must Read Alaska team, but this much is clear: Even with 41% of Palin voters not ranking anyone, Nick Begich would have won against Peltola, by about 5%.

If Begich had been in second place, and Palin had been eliminated first, he would have reached 88,000 votes, whereas Peltola would have only gotten an additional 3,880 votes from Palin’s voters, and that would put her at 79,585. Begich would have won by over 8,400 votes.

The data file released from the Division of Elections is massive and is in a JSON format, which is very technical. More analysis is coming from Must Read Alaska. Check back later tonight for more updates.

This is consistent with Dittman Research’s polling prior to the election that showed that had Nick Begich been in second place after the first round, he would have won the election over Peltola. It also basically proves that in November, if conservatives rank Begich first and Palin second, it’s very likely Begich will win the election.

125 COMMENTS

  2. No amount of conjecture matters unless repubs/conservatives Rank the Red. Otherwise, Peltola walks right in. You’re stuck with “Rank” Choice Voting so use your brain and keep the Dem out of office.

    • Ranking Palin first results in the Democrat winning. Ranking Begich first results in a Republican winning. Nothing more needs to be said. Vote accordingly.

      • Not true. If the 11,000 Begich voters that didn’t rank a second choice would have ranked Palin. Then she would have won. You can spin this however you’d like, but a lot of people just aren’t smart enough to figure out the ranked choice voting – which is why the Libs, and MooCowSki, pushed so hard to get it.

        • AKjons is correct. Those 11000 Begich voters may not have actually preferred Palin over Peltola. Furthermore, if Palin had won, that’s an even worse result since she is the most disliked of the three. Those Begich voters got robbed. Begich was supposed to be the winner as he was the Condorcet candidate. From the ballot data, we can determine the following:

          Peltola > Palin, 51.5 to 48.5%
          Begich > Palin, 61 to 39%
          Begich > Peltola, 52 to 48%

          Begich > Peltola > Palin

  4. “……41% of the people who voted for Palin did not fill in a second bubble for any other candidate. Thus, the win was handed to Democrat Mary Peltola……..”
    That is false. Peltola reached 51% after Begich was eliminated from third place and Palin did not get more votes than Peltola, reaching 48%.

    • Yes, that statement indeed appears to be false. The second ranked candidate on Palin-first ballots was not counted or redistributed in this election.

  5. The Palin loss had everything to do with how a large portion of conservative voters feel about her personally. Additionally, RCV candidates don’t have to bother to declare their their political philosophy on being liberal or conservative and, unfortunately, voters don’t necessarily bother to research where a candidate stands. Also, critical is I believe a lot of voters didn’t really understand RCV. RCV voting feels like a Vegas crap shoot. Had we still been on the regular way to vote, the Palin/Baggich issue would have been worked out and the general would now be an actual choice of conservative or liberal, but now we are running the same game in the general that happened in the so called primary.

    Consequently, Alaska voter need to understand this clearly and rank accordingly on the next vote or this red state will be sending a liberal to Washington after the general election. I doubt either GOP candidate will drop out.

    Also, RCV needs to be rescinded.

    • No, I believe the voters did understand and so do you based on your original comment. Simply put, they tire of hearing a so-called pitbull with lipstick listening to herself bark. After a while even that gets annoying. That’s the main reason I believe why Trump lost. They just can’t shut their big fat mouth.

      • I’m inclined to agree about Trump. I voted for him, but know a lot of people who voted against his “meanness”.

        If he had put his phone down, he’d be POTUS now.

        Disagree on RVC. Voters are stupid people in general. Binary selections are about all most can handle.

      • Agree totally.
        Pres. Trump did so well & would probably be in the WH if he kept his mouth shut.
        He kept attacking & campaigning (& alienating) after he won the miracle 2016 election.
        You can’t win AZ by saying terrible things about their beloved, war veteran, Senator; especially when you are a rich kid draft dodger.
        He turned AZ’s top GOP family bitterly against him because of a super fragile ego.

        And then he comes up here & cluelessly endorses “I’m a Momma grizzly, reload”

      • Sorry Greg, Common knowledge that Trump lost due to wide scale cheating and control over the dominion system. Didn’t you see that documentary?

    • Re: Cynthia Rube: “Also, RCV needs to be rescinded.”

      Cynthia, do suggest going back to the old plurality primary/general election system? That system is actually worse. What do you suggest we should replace the RCV system with? Would you consider using approval voting or range voting as alternative?

  6. Nick Begich and the Democrats know that as long as Nick Begich is on the ballot, Trump-endorsed Sarah Palin will not win the election.

    • Trump’s endorsement is political courtesy for her endorsement of him. Her national brand, where she never governed, is a lot more intact than her statewide brand. Begich positions are much more in line with MAGA, than Palin’s actual record. Begich was telling people to rank the Red, and that he put her second. She was telling people not to rank anyone second, precisely because she did not want this data coming out. That was the whole strategy; to cover up the blatant data showing Nick was more viable. Even with her attempt to bury that, enough people still put Nick second, basically destroying her thesis.

      That said, none of that means a thing if Nick can’t win over a few more points so that he actually does come in second on the first ballot, or God willing, first. He comes in third, Peltola wins and the special interests will make sure it’s another long residency in DC…

  7. Suzanne, no volume of evidence, or blandishments or testimonials from creditable people seem to turn the Sarah Palin faithful away from their supposed Joan of Arc. Despite all that I will attempt to persuade the Palinista’s one last time.

    Sarah’s insecurities and outsized ego, her sense of self worth, combined with her feelings of entitlement have created a toxic brew. This I believe was was evident after watching that Lake Side News Conference in which she castigated the Press about sneaking around her home and singled out Suzanne for reporting facts that put Sarah in an unfavorable light. ( I wonder how the press knew to come to her home anyway, I’m guessing they must have been invited? And why all of the detailed instructions to them about staying out of the woods? Seemed a little crazy to me.)

    We as a loving Alaskan family should be concerned for Sarah. I fear rejection is something that Sarah is unable to cope with, this poor woman has experienced a lot of it lately, her family situation, her losing this election, along with her drubbing in court by the NYT’s. I suggest that we Pray for Sarah, have pity for Sarah and seek to truly help her. Charity and Christian love for Ms. Palin begins with not ENABLING HER TO RUN for OFFICE. After watching her speak this should be obvious to anyone.

    Sadly, Sarah’s demeanor during her “news conference” reminded me of Timothy Treadwell, the self proclaimed savior of the Bears. Like Treadwell, detached from reality, my take away is that Sarah really believes that she alone can save Alaska and America. I submit that this is delusional.
    For the love of God, love of Alaska, love for Sarah Palin and the United States of America that we all should love, I humbly ask that you Palin folks step away from supporting her candidacy and give her the kind of help she really needs at this time, your love , your concern but sure as hell not your VOTE!

    • Oh she’ll bounce back somewhere. Even Jim Baker’s back on TV. She’ll have to go out of state mind you, like Hillary had to. Arkansas couldn’t stand Hillary and it seems as though Alaska is tired of Sarah as well.

      • Greg – Arkansas didn’t abandon the Clintons. It was the other way around. After Bill’s presidency the Clinton Clan fixed their eyes on the real prize – the Big Apple, where they remain today, at least Killary does. We hear all kinds of sordid tales about where Bill actually hangs his shorts these days!

    • “…….Charity and Christian love for Ms. Palin begins with not ENABLING HER TO RUN for OFFICE…….”
      Yes, but she will not comply. The only answer is to legally prevent her from candidacy. Scott Kendall is perfectly suited, like his mentors Andre MacLeod and Andrew Weissmann, to accomplish that (but……..one wonders why he hasn’t already started with his lawsuits like he has with Governor Dunleavy?). Someone should immediately conduct a search of her famous Wasilla domicile for incriminating evidence of wrongdoing.

    • Well, that was certainly a more courteous comment than calling all Palin voters names. I voted Palin 1st, Begich 2nd and didn’t vote for a Democrat. I’m getting pretty tired of others slamming me when the RCV set us up for a split Republican vote. I voted NO for RCV. Keep it simple!

      This RCV has caused more room for errors and definitely split the Republican vote, leaving NO ONE happy.

  8. Palin’s followers, ha., Quit worshiping who you vote for, stick to the specific issues each candidate has to offer then make your decision. Rank the Red so a conservative wins. Candidate worship is a sickness, it’s so unhealthy.

    • The only problem for me Joe, is Palin is not a conservative. The only thing she tries to conserve is her image. I have a conservative, liberal, and socialite quitter to rank. Where’s the play book for this one?

      • You need no guidance, you apparently have a grip on the issues before us, and I can understand why people will rank Begich 1st, rank Peltola 2nd as a firewall to stop Palin and I also respect that.
        It’s not our fault Palin did not drop out.

  9. I did rank Begich, but this whole game of “what ifs” isn’t helping. Begich didn’t come in 2nd and Palin has earned more votes than him 3x already. So chances are he won’t get enough votes to beat anyone in November. Palin’s voters didn’t hand Peltola 20,000 extra votes, so you should try appealing to the Begich voters who did. Unite the Republicans. Everyone should be ranking Begich and Palin #1 and #2, in whichever order they prefer. Otherwise you’re giving the Democrat the upper hand and allowing another house vote to support Biden’s crazy agenda.

    • “…….Begich didn’t come in 2nd and Palin has earned more votes than him 3x already. So chances are he won’t get enough votes to beat anyone in November. Palin’s voters didn’t hand Peltola 20,000 extra votes…….”
      Those are facts that the Palin haters simply will not acknowledge. Thus, we are destined for a Peltola Congresswoman, and I can live with that just like I’ve lived in a RINO Alaska for the past half century.

    • Keep in mind Palin isn’t a conservative. Plain and simple. I’d rather have a predictable Bernie Sanders Democrat than narcissist Palin who’s just looking for the next thing to betray or quit to generate publicity for herself. Basically zero positive results after leaving Wasilla. My ballot ends with Begich ranked #1, and that’s it. I’ll suffer through two years of Peltola to make Palin go away for good !!!

  10. Well, my theory was correct, despite the article’s attempt to obfuscate.

    The Palin supporters were FAR less likely to defect and vote Democrat. Principle came before personality though – and they were willing to hold their nose and support Begich to keep the Democrats out.

    In contrast, the Begich cohort effectively threw a tantrum when their preferred candidate lost and then willingly turned over the seat to the enemy.

    Such is the sad pattern of so many failed business-class Republicans. McCain. Romney. Kasich. Controlled opposition. They expect social conservative support while they spit on us – then smooch with Obama the minute a thick-fingered MAGA candidate shows up to fight for the white middle class.

    Of course, “Whats past is prologue” – now that the voting record is public. I highly doubt Palin voters will be as generous with their 2nd rankings as they had been in the special election. A knife in the back tends to have that effect.

    • “In contrast, the Begich cohort effectively threw a tantrum when their preferred candidate lost and then willingly turned over the seat to the enemy.”

      What? Why consider honest voting preferences to be equivalent to a tantrum? Very many Begich supporters simply like Peltola better than Palin. Begich was the Condorcet winner, and Palin was a spoiler. If Palin supporters really care about any R winning over Peltola, they need to rank Begich first in the next election. Also, what do you mean by claiming the article obfuscated?

  11. Palinheads across Alaska are hiding, having their heads explode, or sticking fingers deep into their ears “La La La not listening”.

    • I’m right here. Why hide? It’s clear that the Republican party can’t get its act together here in Alaska. I’m nonpartisan trying to keep the seat red and get slammed by the Republicans no matter which Republican I vote for. It’s enough to make you think about voting Peltola.

      Republicans better think about what they’re doing. I’ve already suggested a “private” election, but I doubt the party could gather well enough to do such a thing.

  12. Miss peltola is a new face new blood and Alaska may just be surprised, I hope she shows us some integrity and starts us in the right direction. Congratulations to her and I’m going with the democrats now. Thank you Suzanne the wrench thrown in the spokes you are to the republicans.

    • I don’t believe anything was about Democrats versus Republicans or good versus evil. Unless of course you want to categorize Sarah as evil like many do with murkowski. No, I believe this was nothing more than the lack of a good candidate in a popularity contest. I don’t vote strictly down the Republican rank anymore because some of those candidates raise red flags. They say things that make me perk up and say did they just say that? They’re stupidity outshines any accomplishments they’ve achieved. I think the Democrat might deserve a chance, and if she falls short of the voters expectations there’s a cure for that.

    • “Miss peltola is a new face new blood and Alaska may just be surprised……..”
      No doubt. My bet is that she’s a Mark Begich clone; really nice, but with the soul of a Demonrat. His vote gave us Obamacare……..literally. She’ll probably gift us with some sort of Biden/Pelosi “surprise” by CHRISTmas, considering the likelihood that voters in so many other parts of the United States appear so much more wise than Alaskans and will elect a new Republican majority in the House, motivating the Democrats to push all manner of garbage through before January.

  13. It totally doesn’t matter who gets sent to DC. Our country is ruled by unelected bureacrats from the various federal agencies.

    • Essentially, correct. However, it is critically important to place those in power that have the spine to control, adjust and deny funding. Our hard worked for tax dollars are the administrative state’s food–and it is always ravenously hungry…

    • If we elect the right people, maybe the agency cleanup that is so sorely needed might begin? And who better to start spraying the disinfectant than somebody like Trump and Palin who have their backs bristling with long knives?

  14. It is amazing that MRAK still hasn’t attacked the ignorant Begich voters who ranked the dem second handing her the win. THIS is the issue. Get the word out. Rank ALL red. MRAK rapidly losing credibility due to a cat fight.

    • The cat fight you refer to might just be a political agenda that goes deeper than you even know of. Before you generalize something as a feline bout, go back into Palin’s record and see if you see anything that she did that might have pissed some voters off. See if she didn’t keep her promise. See if she stabbed her supporters in the back.

      • Do not like Palin; no argument there. Voted Begich 1 Sarah 2. MRAK has gone into the gutter for really no reason. Keep the blows above the belt; as there is plenty there to attack!

        Begich voters who didn’t rank Palin need to be called out. Sarah is bad but FAR better than the alternative.

    • Tim, Trouble is most voters for Nick are not ignorant, turns out that they are well educated and curious. Nick voters sift through the candidates platforms and then follow through with that great litmus test, is He She (them?) capable of performance to enact the things that they proclaim? Turns out that after this exercise many (like 61% of Alaskans) find that Sarah falls far short, hence the defection to Mary. Another more troubling aspect for Sarah are the folks that have been in Alaska for a long time. Many in this group have at times past been successful in their careers. These are the people who bullet voted for Nick. Ranking the Red is anathema to them since Sarah kicked Ted when he was down and flew into a love fest for Chi-Com Billy and his side kick Mallot.

      As for a loss of cred, kindly go back and watch Sarah’s God Awful and Sad meltdown delivered Lakeside on Monday. This isn’t a Cat Fight Tim, this is about the future of Alaska.

    • I agree. Where is all the anger at the Begich supporters who failed to rank Palin 2nd and instead chose a democrat? They are the real reason the seat went democrat. Face it, whether you like it or not, Palin beat Begich and will more than likely do it again in November. Begich has yet to prove anything to the staunch conservatives of this state. The Begich voters need to get over their Palin hating and rank her as their second choice. At least we then have a shot of getting Palin or Begich in office and not a democrat

      • Nope. I’d rather have Peltola. Regroup in 2 years, Palin will be farming seaweed in the Caribbean by then. Hopefully eliminate ranked choice voting by then too.

        There has been nothing sane nor orderly about this seat for 49 years, never mind this election.

        Palin’s continued presence in the race, with the help of her Harvey Weinstein of Republican Politics Has-been Donald Trump, is what caused the problem. Sarah ignores polls showing her negatives and Nick’s strength in a two person race. Instead of thinking on her feet and backing Nick, she doubles down and fawns on Peltola. She gets the credit for the Republican loss on this one. There’s no other way to spin it folks.

        • Operator, good analysis. Don’t forget that Sarah jumped in to this race on April Fools Day. I wonder if Chi-Com Billy was involved with her decision? No telling what kind of mischief those two “mavericks” might have hatched up.

          Trump don’t always get it right you know , hanging out with that Vapid but Chesty Stormy Gal and also with that so called Vaccine thing, what did Trump call it, Operation Warp Speed? Much Bovine Excrement has passed us by these last few years and now we have the crescendo, THE RETURN of the SARAH! J.R.R. Tolkien would puke.

          Speaking of Trump I thought that the Donald was a genius, and he was very smart with his choice of Doctors after he got the Covid in the early Fall of 2020. I understand that his Doctor treated him with the same therapeutics that the Evil Little beardless Yard Gnome Fauci was denying the rest of the population. Happily it worked out fine for Trump and the vast majority of Africans who also had access to these drugs. (oh you didn’t know that?)

          I remember when we became a State, sadly this election only serves to remind me that we are still a colony, the D.C. Swamp controls Alaska and Sarah has become the enabler of the colonial rulers. Thanks Sarah, please say more nice things about Mary and endorse Walker again, at least that would show some consistency.

  15. “Thus, the win was handed to Democrat Mary Peltola, who will be sworn in next week as Alaska’s next congresswoman.”
    What are you talking about? Palin voters second choice never got counted. The deciding votes in this election came from Begich voters, 30% of whom voted for the Democrat, unlike the 7% or so of Palin voters that voted for the Democrat.
    Thus, the win was handed to Democrat Mary Peltola, who will be sworn in next week as Alaska’s next congresswoman.
    Thanks Begich voters!

    But, don’t be too hard on Begich voters, they were just trying to be like Nick (life long republican).
    You know, vote for Mark Begich, vote for Ethan Berkowitz, vote for Mary Peltola. I’m sensing a pattern here.

    • That’s the quirkiness and flawed nature of the elimination methodology of this ranking system which should be called Hare IRV. The ballot information shows clearly that voters preferences overall were Begich > Peltola > Palin. Palin was a spoiler.

  17. Is Palin bipolar? Anyone who watched her bizarre lawn press conference can see that there are some serious problems here. We cannot afford to have her anywhere near Washington.

    • Possibly. Remember back when she built that giant tall fence wall thing between her and her neighbor because supposedly prying eyes were everywhere? She wants all the limelight but at her terms. It doesn’t work that way. Voters want their candidate to be transparent and there’s about as much transparency to those type candidates as there is to a white garbage bag. But on the other hand, she sure airs out her laundry doesn’t she?

  18. This is all the things I’ve been saying before and after the election. I have argued and explained the consequences of being stubborn and throwing a temper tantrum because RCV is a political game. I’ve tried to explain why we have to rank republicans to win. I’ve explained why we have to win this battle or we cannot win this war. I hope this article wakes people up. It’s ours to lose. Do the smart thing people.

  19. No, I believe the voters did understand and so do you based on your original comment. Simply put, they tire of hearing a so-called pitbull with lipstick listening to herself bark. After a while even that gets annoying. That’s the main reason I believe why Trump lost. They just can’t shut their big fat mouth.

  20. Newest Peltola tv ad falsely claims Supreme Court ruling “took away” women’s right to choose when in reality it simply returned the issue to the individual states.

    Rs need to respond to this dem fear mongering. Gives us a peek into Peltola’s true character. Although as she assumes a moderate role during the election, she’ll go full-blown Pelosi radical once she’s in office.

    • That’s just the talking points that are handlers have her saying. Has a native woman, I can assure you that an abortion has never crossed her mind. I don’t know any natives that get abortions especially her that hails from Southwest Alaska from the likes of Bethel area and Platinum. I despise pelosi and I doubt very much she’s going to be in power after the election. Once she’s voted down from speaker, I look for her to retire. All I’m saying is give this gal a chance. A lot of people have gone to Washington with a good head on their shoulders and wanting to save the country only to be squashed like a bug from the powers of their own party. Starved from support and campaign money they soon fall lockstep with the rest of the party. That’s not the kind of Representative that I want to go to Washington. I want the representative that’s going to be happy housed with their office in some fourth level Janitor’s closet. Someone that truly fights for their own constituents. We’ve had enough fighting in this country it’s time to start getting the job done.

  22. RINO: “Palin’s not ever going to become Congresswoman, right? Right!?”
    MRAK: “No. No she won’t. We’ll stop it.”…………

    • Reggie if I remember correctly Susanne was supporting ‘rank the red’. One of the two should be in office – it was the lack of ranking the red that put us in this situation, not anything Susanne said or did. I also do not care for Palin but I ranked her second and would have happily accepted her being elected as she likely would not sink in the Pelosi shark tank. We need to put the goal of a Republican in that position over our dislike of a particular candidate. Rank the red.

    • These partisan Palin-Begich columns are tough because its ultimately the wrong strategy under RCV.

      MRAK is great, local right-leaning opinion journalism.
      I’m 100% fine with her inserting viewpoints into her coverage, she doesn’t pretend to be unbiased.
      MRAK is the first local source of news I’ve paid regular attention since the Anchorage Times died in 93. And, importantly, MRAK allows comments with a fair to lenient moderation policy.

      Unfortunately, a hard fought bitter primary + partisan coverage kills your chances under RCV, by design.
      Our candidates are running a traditional adversarial race – under a non-traditional voting system.

      Maximizing Republican chances vs Peltola means both Begich/Palin should be playing nice. MRAK should be hammering Peltola while doing the media equivalent of glamour shots on the R candidates. And by ‘play nice’ – I mean ridiculous stuff, like doing joint campaign stops and running combined TV advertisements explicitly ranking each other 1-2 on a mock ballot. Nauseating, I know, but thats RCV.

      Either way, it doesn’t appear either candidate (or MRAK) has that in them – so the next best thing is to write off the seat for 2 years, and remove RCV – by initiative if necessary.

      • Re: “write off the seat for 2 years, and remove RCV – by initiative if necessary.”

        What will you replace RCV with? The plurality system we use for almost all elections in the US is actually worse!

  23. The take away here is that the democrat party treated the primary as a primary. That is, they eliminated Gross and retained only one candidate, while the republicans played ball with rank choice and let two (almost three) candidates run. That was the whole point of rank choice – divide and conquer. Please petition the new legislature to return us to one person, one vote. Elsewise, the majority will remain silenced.

    • Frank, do not overlook the fact the Democrats had the ability to eliminate Gross and took advantage of that ability. The Republicans do not have the ability to eliminate either Palin or Begich. Your next question should be, what gave the Dems their ability.

      • Al Gross ran for the Senate and for the House as an Independent. Yeah, I know, but the Democrats didn’t have any way to get him out of the race. No obvious way, that is. Rumor is they had some really ugly dirt and forced him out.

        • Yeh, “Democrats didn’t have any way to get him out of the race.” So, we can’t buy that theory. However, for some reason beyond logic, we can accept the theory that he just chose of his own volition to bail out? Everything is theoretical unless we see it with our lying eyes, right. On the other hand, sometimes we must acknowledge the image connected dots give us.

    • Exactly! The open/jungle primary was the setup for the Dems to game the system as they planned. They have a “what’s best for the collective” mentality that allows for them to drop out one or more of their liberal candidates to go up against a couple of conservative candidates to divide and conquer. RCV AND the open primary need to go. The parties should select their candidates during the primary, not open to all.

  24. I do believe Nick is the better choice, over Sarah. Bottom Line … we need one of them to step-aside to defeat the Democrat. We have the votes to do so but, we cant split the vote.
    Indeed, we need to eliminate this RCV scheme, and do it quickly!

  25. As a side note, we should all be asking why the Division of Elections withhold the 2nd-rank vote results for two weeks. They had it in hand on election day along with the 1st-rank votes. The 2nd-rank votes are no less subject to revision than the 1st-rank votes. There is only one conceivable reason to withhold the 2nd-rank data. Manipulation.

  26. If Begich doesn’t drop out, Peltola will win again. Conversely, if Palin doesn’t drop out, Peltola will win again.

    Alaska republicans got a rare chance with the special election to see the outcome of their party’s deep-seated internal division. In spite of that they appear to be willing to once again march down that same path and lose to Peltola again in November.

    If the August primary election had been held under the old rules, the results show Palin would have become the party’s nominee on the November ballot. Too bad Begich can’t – or won’t – see this and step aside for the good of the party and for the good of the state. It seems the republicans in Alaska will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    • MBitsko, you’re mistaken. You said if Begich stays in, Peltola wins, and if Palin stays in, Peltola wins. That’s true ONLY if…
      Palin drops out, Begin stays in: Begich wins
      Begich drops out, Palin stays in: Peltola wins.
      Palin has such high negatives that she could not win a head-to-head against Peltola.
      In short, if Palin is in the election, Peltola wins.
      The Begich campaign may pull a rabbit out of a hat and out-poll Palin on election day, but their current campaign strategy won’t deliver results different than the August 16 election.

      • “In short, if Palin is in the election, Peltola wins.”

        That may not be the case in November if the Palin-first voters come to understand that they must rank Begich first to avoid Peltola winning.

    • How can you be so sure that Begich voters, whose candidate lost in the primary, would vote for Palin in the general election? 29% of them have said they’d rather see Peltola in that seat.

    • Palin actually placed third according to all of the rankings, and Begich actually placed first, Peltola second. So if R voters want any R to win in November, either Palin should drop out, or all R voters including Palin-first supporters should rank Begich first. What they do not want to do is send Palin to a runoff against Peltola, or Peltola likely wins it again.

  28. Despite her unpopularity, Palin had more support among Republicans than Begich. The simple reason Begich came in behind Palin is that more Republicans voted for her than voted for him. Begich could only have won by reversing that fact and getting more Republicans to vote for him. Because he didn’t do that, enough Republicans preferred Peltola over Palin to give the special election to Peltola. Unless Begich can change that dynamic, Peltola will be the winner in November.

  29. My family poll of Palin primary supporters identify Begich as bland and a poser who supported a Democrat, they did not rank anyone else . If Sarah was not on the ballot her votes would be splintered much more than MRAK suggests.

    • Frank, how strange, my family poll found that Nick was very articulate, experienced, personable and above all hardworking.
      But then we took the time to educate ourselves about the candidates. It seems most of our family have real problems with the democrat welfare plantation economic model championed by Mary and her boss Joe Biden. Oddly enough 6 out of 10 family members had such strong reservations about Sarah that they bullet voted Nick only, Weird, huh?

  30. It’s baked into the computer program for the Demonrat/Uniparty candidates to win. Voting no longer matters. It’s not who votes, but who/what counts the votes. Without free and open hand counting no election can be believed.

  31. Would’ve, should’ve, could’ve! The mental gymnastics of MRAK are becoming comical. But if inquiring minds want to know why the odd behavior is ocurring just look through the Federal Election Commission public records on campaign contributors to Nick Begich.

  32. Why not this headline? 50% is higher than 41%

    But nearly 50% of Begich voters were not of the same “rank the red” mindset. About 29% of Begich voters picked Peltola second. Several conservative, lifelong Republicans told Must Read Alaska they voted for Peltola second to block Palin from office. They find her too polarizing.

    Another 20% of voters didn’t vote for anyone else after they picked Begich.

  33. We’re going to have another huge campaign rally and feast for Nick in Wasilla. Everyone is welcome! The entire Palin family will be there except for,…… you know who. She’ll be out of state.

  34. Pitbull … Grizzly Mama … Reload lipstick … don’t retreat (just quit) … shack up w/ millionaire NHL dude
    But I’m a conservative (not) ….look at my leather biker jacket ….cool uh?

    • I’m A conservativee.. Just look! I’m shooting a pump shotgun in my ad photos. Not like Obama shot a shotgun in photos means he is a conservative, too, see! Doesn’t matter that I haven’t taken a strong stance on any issue. Ignore that I am the precious sonny boy of hardcore liberals!!

      • Chuck, seek help, do it soon. Absent that please try to inform yourself about who the Candidates
        really are. (disclaimer, if you are a Palinhead this might not endear you to little miss MAGA, Drill Baby Drill, better yet not do this since all of the information will be “fake news” anyway, all a predetermined conspiracy to deprive us of Sarah Palin’s enlightened leadership)
        BTW Nick isn’t “Sonny” boy to his leftist Uncles, got that? Good!
        Make Alaska Great Again! Elect Nick Begich’s grandson to office!

  35. Wow. I thought Palin was smarter than that. A case of narcissistic blindness? So enthralled with self importance she will throw our state under the bus? Who knows. I hope not. Rank the red unless you want Peltola in permanently.

  36. When I planned my move to here 10 years ago, it was Sarah Palin that my “outsider” friends asked me about. Sarah Palin has done more to showcase Alaska and to increase enthusiasm for tourism than any Chamber or government office. I am always amazed that no one recognizes that, and seem to resent it. Sarah Palin back on the national stage would benefit Alaska in many ways, and would help more than being one very lonely vote in U.S. Congress, with no history or clout, unless of course Don Young left a book of where the bodies are buried.

    I feel much of the “hate” for Palin goes back to who got the coveted date for the prom. Small town stuff.

    • Gag me Joan.
      If by showcasing you mean pimping then I agree.
      Alaska sells itself. If anything Palin taints and cheapens the commodity.
      The hate is toward her audacious, entitled attitude that completely denies her record of quitting everything.

    • Joan, perhaps you are right, Sarah does belongs on a National Stage, she seems comfortable in the lime light. Our experience with Sarah however has led us to believe that putting her in Government is a disaster. This is why she polls 61% negatively. I have no problem with Sarah personally, but keep her away from elected office!
      Not hate Joan , just wisdom.

  37. Suzanne, I’ve been reading your emails since you first started Must Read Alaska, but your continued harping to readers to vote for the 2nd place republican candidate has made me lose all respect for you. If there had been a normal republican primary, Palin would have won and Begich would be out. To think that all the Republicans are going to vote for the 2nd place republican is crazy.

    The only way Republicans and conservatives are going to win the house seat is to vote for the winner of the republican primary and that is Sarah Palin, whether you like her or not. By Republicans not voting for her or not voting at all is exactly how Democrats always win.

    By being a never Palin-er is just like being a never Trump-er and exactly why we have Biden as president, a DISASTER.

    Even if you don’t like Palin I believe she would never vote with democrats and would always vote Republican, although she might miss a few votes. But probably not the important ones. This is what is important for the country as a whole right now, more so than just Alaska.

    So wise up and change your tune and maybe I’ll respect you again. That goes for the rest of you never Palin-ers also.

    • How do you account for the 60+% negative rating?

      Democrats win because republicans are stupid at a DNA level.

    • Bob A, news flash for you, Sarah has voted with the Democrats on several occasions. Remember Billy Walker and Mallot? Uh huh, yup, how about her crazy trashing of anyone who disagrees with her as being ” the good Ole boys”. Remember Uncle Ted?
      Sarah isn’t ” conservative” Hoss, she is an appetite for attention. Sorry to burst yer bubble.

    • Bob A, the logical fallacy in your comment is your underlying assumption that Republican voters are who decides whether a Republican candidate wins or not. In reality, it is the uncommitted independents that make that pivotal decision in every election. The only reason Democrats ever win in Alaska is because the Republican party often fields such undesirable candidates. Granted, there are more committed Republicans than committed Democrats in Alaska. However, there are not enough committed Republicans to assure a 51% majority to a Republican candidate. The independents are needed; but, this time they would rather have Peltola than Palin. On the other hand, Begich can get the needed independents. Its up to the Palin voters to give their 1st, if not 2nd-rank, to Begich. Otherwise Peltola surely wins.

    • Re: “If there had been a normal republican primary, Palin would have won and Begich would be out.”

      If Begich is the most preferred candidate of all voters, which the special election ballots suggest he is, then such an outcome is actually an outright election failure! This particular failure highlights how the primary/general election system is many times malfunctioning. This is one of the main reasons people are attempting to implement a top-four or Final Five system and thus abolish party primaries. Unfortunately, the RCV method exhibited a rare spoiler scenario in this election.

  38. Sarah Palin reminds me more and more of Jim Jones every day.

    While I accept a large portion of her voters are sincere in their estimation of her political positions, a disturbing amount of them act like cultists following a self proclaimed messiah.

    And just like Jonestown her blind followers are happy to commit electoral suicide to prove their point.

    All while the Democrats tighten their controls over our daily lives.

  39. Only 1/3 of Alaskans desire Palin. 2/3 cannot stand her. If it it takes a Democrat win to permanently rid Alaska of Palin, I believe the Begich people will either rank Peltola 2nd, or leave all remaining spaces blank. I know many Alaskans who will do this. I will.

    • You will be voting for the whole Democrat Agenda just because you hate Sarah so much. Open Borders / Fentynal, Sex Trafficing, Gun Control, 87,000 new IRS AGENTS to go after You and Your Family, more Taxes, Higher Gas prices, and on and on. Just because you Hate Sarah.

      • Sarge, As a warrior you understand the difference between a Poser, a Traitor, a Train Wreck and a Patriot, I’m sure, right? Nobody here is voting for the Democrat Agenda, under this new RCV we rank our votes, ( and I did rank S.P. #2) Given Sarah’s erratic behavior recently and absolutely stupid actions over the course of her elected tenure and her Endorsement of Chi-Com Billy I think it’s important for you and the other Palin folks to understand why 61% of the rest of us feel the way we do about Sarah. Republicans say Government doesn’t work, then we elect Sarah Palin and prove that point. As for the issues you mention above, what makes you think that Nick and the rest of us want that? We all want to stop it, we just don’t want the Republican version of A.O.C. representing us and giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

        Say, why don’t you ask Sarah when the last time she sought council from Jim Jordan. Just curious, I see him as the leader of the Patriots in Congress and at the same time I see an unstable Sarah on Bannon’s show talking about how she needs to be installed in the House Leadership… Good Lord man, we need a credible front to face our enemy not a screeching and babbling Sarah. Sorry pard, just the facts.
        Please convince me that Sarah would do less damage to Alaska and our Nation then a Mary.
        I’ll wait and I hope you can convince me to your way of thinking, God Bless you sir.

    • Mary, Believe what you want but the Democrat party is hell-bent on condemning Alaska to an infinite economic winter by shutting down all our resource development and industry. They intend for us to exist only on the government dole. I would rather have anyone not affiliated with the Democrat party in congress–including Palin, who I would hold my nose and give my 2nd-rank. We must think bigger than the personality of the one we elect.

  40. A genuine question for the “Nobody but Sarah” crowd.

    In your worldview, is it possible to disagree with Palin and not be a RINO?

    I’m really curious.

  42. She won’t. And she shouldn’t. She has too much support to. She would be Congresswoman Sarah, if not for the Blue RINO’S

    • So you don’t believe it’s possible to disagree with Sarah and not be a RINO?
      Is it your position that Sarah, and only Sarah, is the embodiment of true Republicism?

  43. Ted Cruz on Ranked Choice
    -anti democratic
    -gets people to vote in ways where the outcome is perverse and backwards.
    -a bad way of doing elections.
    -the people who push this don’t like the way voters vote.
    -people who push it want democrats elected.

    • All of the criticisms Cruz throws at RCV are also true for the plurality voting method used for almost all elections in the US today, except that plurality is actually worse.

  44. Please rank the red,

    Sarah #2 is not making her a governor, she talks the conservative talk very well, and she is a media darling, so she would help get the conservative message out. As a Representative her voting has little real value, but she would oppose most of the democratic agenda. not ideal but better than giving the seat to a democrat….

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